Francis: Treliving filled with disappointment, anger after team's collapse

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Friedman’s comments scream Dougie Hamilton.

I'm guessing Brodie is probably the #1 candidate for trade bait.

[hixxes]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Based on how this team is performing there should only be on true untouchable: Matthew Tkachuk.

I couldn't agree more. It wouldn't break my heart to see anyone else go.

I also want GG gone though as his game management on top of everything else seems terribly inept.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Yes, goal differential can be influenced by blowouts (in both directions), but over time those even out. And the Flames were hanging with the better teams for a long while, but even then their goal differential was the only negative one. For a time they were ahead of the Kings but they were something like -6 while the kings were plus 20 something. How did things turn out?

Yes everyone saw the team fall apart. But last season, they made it into the playoffs with a roughly similar goal differential. The problem this season was that the goaltending started to look average and the team didn't enough goal support from the 2nd, 3rd and 4th lines for the last half of the season.

The Flames are way too top heavy and rely on the 1st line to win this team games as evidenced by the incredibly number of wins when the 1st line didn't score. Gaudreau's line can't score every game, they're going to get shut down once in a while and when you only get 4 wins when that happens, that's just not good enough.

Monahan and Backlund are a terrific 1-2 punch, but they're not Kopitar and Carter. Gio was unbelievable this season, but Drew Doughty is a perennial Norris candidate. Smith is the best goaltender we've had in a while, but he's no Jonathan Quick. If this team wants to be top heavy, then they better have some of the best key players in their respective positions, but sadly we don't. We also dealt with injuries poorly this season and when multiple key guys went down, the wheat ultimately separated from the chaff.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

But last season, they made it into the playoffs with a roughly similar goal differential.

Just FYI, the Flames had a +5 Goal Differential last year. This year they stand at -36. I would say that's a pretty big difference.

[sa226]

I would tend to agree that the emotion level and emotional response level of this team is terrible. The way they would crumble when adversity struck was and is a troublesome pattern.

But I'm going to allude to a quote from Darryl Sutter that I can't remember, from when he hired Brent Sutter (Yes we know how that went). "The most important leader is the coach"

It has to be. Darryl Sutter, among many great coaches are famous for how they have their finger on the pulse of the team. Gulutzan's finger is out waving in the wind somehwere.

Emotion level was absolutely a issue with this team. But if Treliving puts it as the number one and only issue, and addresses it without acknowledging the other glaring issues that can be attributed to coaching, then good god.

What worries me slightly is that as we as fans put our wishlists forward for a new head coach, maybe the reality is that the actual upcoming pool to choose from, of coaches that would be willing to come to Calgary, may be much smaller and inexperienced than we think.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Based on how this team is performing there should only be on true untouchable: Matthew Tkachuk.

Gaudreau is an untouchable. He's the unquestionable MVP of this season and with this terribly inept offense, he's the only shining beacon.

If anyone disagrees, just look at the best stretches this team had:


7 game win streak (January) = 13 points in 7 games by Gaudreau
7-2 stretch (November) = 18 points in 9 games by Gaudreau
3 game win streak (October) = 7 points in 3 games by Gaudreau
3 game win streak (February) = 6 points in 3 games by Gaudreau


As one can plainly see, Gaudreau can carry this team for long stretches when he's on fire. When he's just average, this team doesn't win. He's produced offensively in 30 of the team's 36 wins, that's just not sustainable and this needs to be fixed. If Treliving looks at these stats and doesn't address this, I see another 1st round exit or 9th place finish again.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

Yeah, I would agree with that. The key guy to me is Hamilton - I posted my thought in some other thread... is there more upside (Hedman) there? From afar (and I admit I know little), he strikes me as one-dimensional, lackadaisical, and not too bright. In which case, I would sell high and let somebody else babysit him. If they (who should be in the know) think he is growing and capable of developing then he is a cornerstone and you do what you can to make him into Hedman.
GG has to be fired either way.

The thing is that he's probably the smartest player on the team or one of the smartest as he won the Ivan Tennant Memorial Award and Bobby Smith Trophy in the OHL given to the top academic/scholastic player. I personally believe he's right up there with Tkachuk as untouchable at 24 years old and considering his size, skating and offensive production I just don't see any trade scenario that doesn't come back to haunt this team. He's really the only offensively gifted goal scoring defenseman in the organization and IMO simply not replaceable as this organization has a lot of good skating & passing defensemen but few of them can actually shoot the puck or have Hamilton's offensive instincts. I think fans have to realize he's not going to be Chara or Pronger and he doesn't have to be as a double digit scoring defenseman carries a lot of value on their own. Too many fans expect him to be everything when they really should be happy he's leading the league in goals by a defenseman is an advanced stats darling. As well we aren't talking about a smooth skating guy like Bouwmeester that has a muffin for a shot and isn't really offensively gifted. Hamilton is more than that and more than Bouwmeester ever amounted to.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Just FYI, the Flames had a +5 Goal Differential last year. This year they stand at -36. I would say that's a pretty big difference.

If you read any of my previous post, I said that 90% of this season, the Flames had a relatively neutral goal differential. It wasn't until the last 9 games that the goal differential has blown which is due mostly to major injuries and very poor goaltending from Gillies, Rittich and Smith.

As Treliving said in the Francis article, you don't stick dynamite and blow this thing up just because they've fallen apart. I take this last part of the season with a grain of salt, when this team was at it's best, they were about even in the goal differential mark and that's the team I'll judge. Not this current AHL line up with Nick Shore as the 1st line center.

[Roof-Daddy]

We should trade Monahan for Ruslan Zainullin.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Gaudreau is an untouchable. He's the unquestionable MVP of this season and with this terribly inept offense, he's the only shining beacon.

If anyone disagrees, just look at the best stretches this team had:


7 game win streak (January) = 13 points in 7 games by Gaudreau
7-2 stretch (November) = 18 points in 9 games by Gaudreau
3 game win streak (October) = 7 points in 3 games by Gaudreau
3 game win streak (February) = 6 points in 3 games by Gaudreau


As one can plainly see, Gaudreau can carry this team for long stretches when he's on fire. When he's just average, this team doesn't win. He's produced offensively in 30 of the team's 36 wins, that's just not sustainable and this needs to be fixed. If Treliving looks at these stats and doesn't address this, I see another 1st round exit or 9th place finish again.

Obviously you sell high. Duh.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by 868904

If that's what Tre thinks then they should fire him too. There was no character or compete issue with this team under Hartley with pretty much the same core less Tkachuk and Hamonic who we don't question.

Hartley missed the playoffs 3/4 years though. That one fluke year was nice but it may be glossing over the truth. The players tuned him out and turned on him. Obviously I think that is in part to his coaching style and personality but it could also confirm that the make up of the group is off as well. They basically refused to play for him so while he may have got more out of them one season, it was only one season. He tried to push them and they either didn't respond or pushed back. I really hope they go with a new coaching staff but I'm not so sure that alone is the answer. I'm honestly ready for a shake up.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

It just means that there's a bit of a statistical anomaly in terms of how the Flames have performed to date.

I get a kick out of this. “A bit of a statistical anomaly.”

No, the Flames have repeatedly and consistently demonstrated that the model of shot counts implying degree of control and probability of outscoring and thus winning is not a fit for this team.

An anomaly is a point or two in disagreement, not a broad sweeping sustained and apparently repeatable series of refutations.

* I note that Bingo has come around to acknowledging that the model does not work because not all shots are equal, and shot location as a proxy for quality isn’t good enough, and is agreeing that other things need to be measured to come up with a model that does work. (Still keeps reporting it every game, though, without the context and disclaimers, and gets frustrated with the responses. Hopefully next year somebody is aggregating and reporting more situational data that is correlative.)

I do agree with you that goal differential is not terribly useful. It is almost as bad as correlating standings to wins. (I know, I know ... I get the LA example and how the fates of the teams have changed.)

[868904]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Hartley missed the playoffs 3/4 years though. That one fluke year was nice but it may be glossing over the truth. The players tuned him out and turned on him. Obviously I think that is in part to his coaching style and personality but it could also confirm that the make up of the group is off as well. They basically refused to play for him so while he may have got more out of them one season, it was only one season. He tried to push them and they either didn't respond or pushed back. I really hope they go with a new coaching staff but I'm not so sure that alone is the answer. I'm honestly ready for a shake up.

I'm not saying Hartley was great, but we didn't question the core players' character during Hartley's last two years. Quite the opposite really, the players always tried and if anything, we blamed the losing on poor goaltending and Hartley's system.

My comment wasn't to say Hartley was great, my comment was more of questioning the character of the core. I just don't see the quit or lack of character that some including Treliving are pointing to. LIke I said, the majority of this core was part of the "never-say-die-Flames" who won every game with comebacks. Did that core (Gaudreau, Monahan, Backlund, Bennett, Ferland, Giordano, Brodie) all just lose their character since GG became coach?

Or are we saying the problem is the new core guys who were brought in: Hamilton, Tkachuk and Hamonic?

I just don't like the narrative that the core has character issues. Most of the core was acquired BECAUSE of their character and now we are saying they don't have character?

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Hartley missed the playoffs 3/4 years though. That one fluke year was nice but it may be glossing over the truth. The players tuned him out and turned on him. Obviously I think that is in part to his coaching style and personality but it could also confirm that the make up of the group is off as well. They basically refused to play for him so while he may have got more out of them one season, it was only one season. He tried to push them and they either didn't respond or pushed back. I really hope they go with a new coaching staff but I'm not so sure that alone is the answer. I'm honestly ready for a shake up.

Ready for a change too, but don’t love the simplicity of this ‘missed the playoffs 3 out of 4’ narrative.

Hartley’s 4 year tenure was due by a time of major transition
1 - post apex non playoff team with one last chance before blowing up the core
2 - core blown up, work ethic installed, exciting and competitive down the stretch early in the rebuild
3 - exciting surprise. Find a way Flames in second round. Jack Adams
4 - horrible start. 3 headed goalie monster, Brodie injured, Gio back from major injury, Hamilton confused, no training camp for Johnny - some kind of goaltending from Hiller and it looked over after the first 20. Ramo seemed to be stabilizing things when he had his knee blown out and the wheels fell off.

Year 3 may be an anomaly one way but I see year 4 as an anomaly the other way. Perfect storm. Neither here nor there though, he is gone.

Look at Gulutzan year 2. What major issues did he have to deal with until Smith got hurt?

I am ready for a shake up as well and if Tre sticks with this guy they both should be turfed.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Just FYI, the Flames had a +5 Goal Differential last year. This year they stand at -36. I would say that's a pretty big difference.

Last year the Flames had Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson. There was bound to be some drop off after those two perpetual Vezina and Jennings candidates left.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Just FYI, the Flames had a +5 Goal Differential last year. This year they stand at -36. I would say that's a pretty big difference.

41?

That's somewhat disingenuous to what's been said. The Flames were something like -5 on March 1st before everything hit the fan.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Bingo

41?

That's somewhat disingenuous to what's been said. The Flames were something like -5 on March 1st before everything hit the fan.

Just 9 games ago the Flames were in the single digits. I wouldn't even count the last a couple weeks here as injuries and call ups have altered the numbers beyond repair. For 90% of this season, this team won a lot of close games and were rarely blown out. Actually, I remember there was a long stretch where this team didn't give up more than 3 goals for something like 2 months. That's the team I would look at, not this current minor league line up.

[Housley4Prez]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Just FYI, the Flames had a +5 Goal Differential last year. This year they stand at -36. I would say that's a pretty big difference.

Wow. When you say it like that...

Real question... are our "advanced" stats better than last year? Because I'm so ready to give up on them as a success predictor entirely.

Fancy stats, plus salary cap and cap hits, expensive tickets, and SportsNet broadcasts over 82 games... I'm running out of patience with the product, and ready to find a new hobby, after over 30 years of obsession.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by Shazam

The Flames are (were?) top 3 in corsi. That should predict what then? Keeping in mind their record since January.

How are other top corsi teams doing? What does your regression analysis say? I think you should hit that very, very, very low bar. Nothing like grade 8 math getting in the way.

Also how it is an accurate individual in-game predictor when, in any given individual game, chance and random luck is highest (as opposed to a season, when such occurrences even out)?

This is exactly the kind of thing I'm talking about.

Make a bunch of insults and assumptions without actually saying anything of substance. This just reeks of "i don't understand advanced stats and therefore they are scary and stupid and the people who talk about them are stupid too".

Read my post again and explain how your response has anything to do with mine. You didn't address a single point I made. It's not even clear to me why you quoted me.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Bingo

41?
That's somewhat disingenuous to what's been said. The Flames were something like -5 on March 1st before everything hit the fan.

Was there ever a time where the Flames had a positive differential? Regardless of the late-season collapse, this team was almost always in the red, or barely hovering above zero, throughout the year. Even if you ignore the last couple of weeks, for a team that was supposed to take a step forward into semi-contender status, -5 is just not good enough.

The fact that they collapsed when it mattered to me is a further indictment of the team and coaches, not a reason to give them a pass.