Francis: Treliving filled with disappointment, anger after team's collapse

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Frank MetaMusil

It was Burke. He wasn't going to trade Cammalleri for "less than a premium" so he just walked and signed with the Devils.

That was the trade deadline.

The Flames tried hard to sign Cammalleri on Jul 1 but wouldn’t commit to term. That’s why he walked.

And that was certainly under Treliving’s watch

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

That was the trade deadline.

The Flames tried hard to sign Cammalleri on Jul 1 but wouldn’t commit to term. That’s why he walked.

Ah right. Thanks. I knew there was haggling somewhere.

[Svartsengi]

Cammy got 5 years from the Devils. Treliving was right not to sign him for that term. Treliving has made mistakes in July, Brouwer being the first that comes to mind.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Machiavelli

Amazing to sort by goal differential. It just doesn't lie

Goal differential naturally is a marker of success as wins and losses are defined by your ability to score more goals than you give up. But I don't take the goal differential stat as gospel because it can be swayed by blowout games and rough stretches.

For instance, the Flames were sitting at a goal differential that was in the single digits positive or negative for 90% of the season (last season as well), 9 games later, the Flames are a -33. The Flames were actually hanging pretty well with the better goal differential teams (Wild, Sharks, Kings, Ducks, Avs and etc) for much of this season until just recently.

I tend to believe that this team is more of a neutral goal differential team as evidenced by all of last season and 90% of this season rather than be swayed too much by the last 9 or so games where the back ups are playing, many regulars are MIA and the team is still reeling from shock.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by Itse

Very well said. I like the term secondary stats.



I think you have this upside down.

I think Gulutzan is a pretty s##t coach, and that's the main problem. There's this stupid term, "a student of the game" that's sometimes thrown around to describe I guess analytical people in hockey. I think it's very descriptive of Gulutzan. If you go watch his symposiums, they have all the hallmarks of a bad lecture. Mostly boring and often lacking in a clear point or solid practical advice. This is usually what happens when people who don't actually understand what they are talking about try to explain it. Looking at what he's good at (creating structure and system) and what he's bad at (making adjustments, proper use of players), this I think supports this.

I think GG just does not understand hockey that well. He's the hardworking student who can quote you long litanies from memory, but can't explain what any of it means. He can look at what someone like Babcock is doing and see what's going on, but he doesn't really know why an actually good coach would use that particular strategy in that situation with those players. Which is why he can pick a strategy and get a team to execute it, like the Flames are doing, but he can't get it to work properly and he doesn't know what to do when that happens. It's also why he's incapable of properly reacting to things that happen within a game. He's probably slow to see what happens, and even if he does he doesn't know what he should do, because he'd need to understand things better to know that. The most likely reason IMO of his poor player usage is basically the same: he doesn't really understand what makes a certain player really good at something. All he can look at is stats.

I don't see lack of leadership or charisma, because the team clearly, consistently keeps doing what they're told. They play the system to the the point of frustration and desperation and keep doing that even when the season is gone. That to me suggests the coach has strict control of the room. That is not his problem.

Gulutzan as a coach is like many other Trelivongs acquisitions: a workhorse lacking in actual talent and skill.

(Why people keep saying "he has a great hockey mind" I don't know, because I can't see any evidence of that. I think it's something Trelivongs said and people just went with it.)

I happen to think this is a really crucial thing, because if the Flames think the problem is lack of character instead of lack of skill and get it wrong, they will just double down on the original problem.

Which is what I'm afraid will happen with the player moves too. I really hope I'm wrong somewhere.

I partly agree with the bolded part, still I think there is something lacking. I think they do buy into what he wants them to do and they do it consistently. There is leadership there. I just don't think they go to the wall for him. It is like Treliving says there is something missing, an emotional ingredient that's important to winning. Even when the players were playing the right way we see a lot of inconsistency and as you pointed out GG just doesn't seem to have an answer for those situations.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Svartsengi

Cammy got 5 years from the Devils. Treliving was right not to sign him for that term. Treliving has made mistakes in July, Brouwer being the first that comes to mind.

I believe Cammy was clearly a plan A and they wanted him for 3 years opposed to the 5 the Devils gave him (he was bought out after 3 anyway). I believe Raymond was the Flames plan B and he was bought out after 2 years.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Not sure where to put it so I'll put it here.

Friedman on the Fan 960 just now thinks that the GG stays and they make personnel changes. Feels that Treliving doesn't think the coach should take all the heat for this season.

So pretty much worst case/nightmare scenario

Not exactly. Friedman said he isn't sure that GG goes (which is a lot different from saying he thinks he stays). And he went into quite a bit more detail on the personnel issues.

He said the sense among the Flames management and around the league is that the Flames have issues around emotion. He said he expects Treliving to take a hard look at the one-ice personnel in order to address this problem. And that he expects Treliving to start considering moving players who he always gets calls on.

Basically, there's an issue with chemistry or the intensity of some core players on the Flames, and one of the ways Treliving will try to fix the team in the off-season is to move one more of the guys who he thinks are the problem.

It sounds like one of the reasons Treliving's reluctant to move GG is because it will be rewarding players who aren't holding up their end of the bargain when it comes to commitment and engagement. I know fans get emotionally attached to core players, but I have to think the GM has a much better insight into these matters than fans. There's something pretty seriously wrong with the Flames besides coaching and bottom-six scoring, and it looks like the GM might address that something in the summer.

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Not exactly. Friedman said he isn't sure that GG goes (which is a lot different from saying he thinks he stays). And he went into quite a bit more detail on the personnel issues.

Thanks Cliff. I'll listen again when they replay it during Hockey Central at noon. I may have misheard but thought he said that. Regardless, its just his opinion I suppose but man that scares me, thinking GG might stay. Absolutely there needs to be personnel changes but if the entire temperature of that room needs to change then they need to make sure the guy running the controls is moved too.

[Machiavelli]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Not exactly. Friedman said he isn't sure that GG goes (which is a lot different from saying he thinks he stays). And he went into quite a bit more detail on the personnel issues.

He said the sense among the Flames management and around the league is that the Flames have issues around emotion. He said he expects Treliving to take a hard look at the one-ice personnel in order to address this problem. And that he expects Treliving to start considering moving players who he always gets calls on.

Basically, there's an issue with chemistry or the intensity of some core players on the Flames, and one of the ways Treliving will try to fix the team in the off-season is to move one more of the guys who he thinks are the problem.

It sounds like one of the reasons Treliving's reluctant to move GG is because it will be rewarding players who aren't holding up their end of the bargain when it comes to commitment and engagement. I know fans get emotionally attached to core players, but I have to think the GM has a much better insight into these matters than fans. There's something pretty seriously wrong with the Flames besides coaching and bottom-six scoring, and it looks like the GM might address that something in the summer.

So who the hell would they move out, then?

If they trade core players before firing GG, I'm done with this team.

[Reign of Fire]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Not sure where to put it so I'll put it here.

Friedman on the Fan 960 just now thinks that the GG stays and they make personnel changes. Feels that Treliving doesn't think the coach should take all the heat for this season.

So pretty much worst case/nightmare scenario

If this true, all of King, Burke, Tre and GG can GTFO...otherwise I hope fans stay away.

How can Tre conclude that Hartley took the team has far as he could, but got his head up his *** when it comes to GG. I bet monkeys can run this franchise better.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Based on how this team is performing there should only be on true untouchable: Matthew Tkachuk.

[nik-]

That's a pretty scary thought because it's not unreasonable.

I agree with Mach though, no trades before GG is gone. Some potentially huge mistakes are waiting in the wings if they make significant moves based on results under this coach. The problem is that it puts you into the season, and you probably won't make any trades until at least the 20 game mark, and trading in season is way more difficult. So perhaps it turns into yet another wasted season.

God this team is a mess.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Based on how this team is performing there should only be on true untouchable: Matthew Tkachuk.

Yeah, I would agree with that. The key guy to me is Hamilton - I posted my thought in some other thread... is there more upside (Hedman) there? From afar (and I admit I know little), he strikes me as one-dimensional, lackadaisical, and not too bright. In which case, I would sell high and let somebody else babysit him. If they (who should be in the know) think he is growing and capable of developing then he is a cornerstone and you do what you can to make him into Hedman.
GG has to be fired either way.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by Machiavelli

So who the hell would they move out, then?

If they trade core players before firing GG, I'm done with this team.

Sure you are.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

There are too many posts to quote from the last 3 or 4 pages...

But the fact that I'm seeing so many people point to goal differential as a better statistic than those useless advanced stats tells me that a lot of people either don't understand what advanced stats are or are so biased against the current Flames coaching staff that they do understand and are intentionally mischaracterizing what advanced stats are and how the Flames organization uses them.

Goal differential is a great stat for showing which teams have good results. Just like wins, points, GF, GA etc all do. But they aren't a predictor on a smaller scale. You can't use goal diff during a game because the result of each game is solely determined by goal differential. So if a game is tied 0-0 after 1 period, goal diff is useless. However other advanced stats may paint a better picture of which team is carrying the play and is likely to win the game.

Advanced stats are typically used to show underlying trends that may suggest how a team is currently and should perform going forward. Goal diff can't do that. Now, advanced stats are certainly far from perfect but no one, not on CP, the media or the Flames organization and especially the coaching staff have suggested that this is the case. And yet I see post after post after post claiming this is the case.

Just because Bingo et al have repeatedly pointed to advanced stats as an indication that the Flames underlying metrics don't add up with the result based stats (wins/goal diff etc) doesn't make them Flames schills or on the Flames payroll or condescending aholes.

It just means that there's a bit of a statistical anomaly in terms of how the Flames have performed to date.

I would assume that the Flames coaches and their statisticians and the rest of the organizations uses advanced stats similarly to how Bingo uses them. To help support the eye test, to use as another method of evaluating. The idea that they are playing for advanced stats, instead of just using them as supporting data is asinine.

The other thing is that we don't know with 100% certainty exactly what advanced stats the Flames are using. As if they just use corsi and fenwick and ignore the fact that the results based stats are poor but think we're amazing.

Otherwise, yeah definitely, you want a stat that is a good indication of the standings and Goal Diff is definitely it.

And this doesn't even scratch the surface of player motivation, intangibles, luck, special teams, momentum etc. Even if we knew that having a good advanced stat x led to wins, you don't play just for that stat. You understand how good teams who win get good stats in that category and I think everyone, including the Flames, knows that.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Goal differential naturally is a marker of success as wins and losses are defined by your ability to score more goals than you give up. But I don't take the goal differential stat as gospel because it can be swayed by blowout games and rough stretches.

For instance, the Flames were sitting at a goal differential that was in the single digits positive or negative for 90% of the season (last season as well), 9 games later, the Flames are a -33. The Flames were actually hanging pretty well with the better goal differential teams (Wild, Sharks, Kings, Ducks, Avs and etc) for much of this season until just recently.

I tend to believe that this team is more of a neutral goal differential team as evidenced by all of last season and 90% of this season rather than be swayed too much by the last 9 or so games where the back ups are playing, many regulars are MIA and the team is still reeling from shock.

Yes, goal differential can be influenced by blowouts (in both directions), but over time those even out. And the Flames were hanging with the better teams for a long while, but even then their goal differential was the only negative one. For a time they were ahead of the Kings but they were something like -6 while the kings were plus 20 something. How did things turn out?

[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It sounds like one of the reasons Treliving's reluctant to move GG is because it will be rewarding players who aren't holding up their end of the bargain when it comes to commitment and engagement. I know fans get emotionally attached to core players, but I have to think the GM has a much better insight into these matters than fans. There's something pretty seriously wrong with the Flames besides coaching and bottom-six scoring, and it looks like the GM might address that something in the summer.

Can't it be both?

GG's poor player deployment >> player disappointment >> lack of emotion b/c they know nothing will change >> losing games

Poor player attitude >> GG frustration >> GG not using the player in "better" situations >> losing games

The result is the same - and the eye test is the same.

The solution is less simplistic than it might appear though - simply firing the coach and getting a hard-ass new coach likely won't solve it. If GG doesn't have the heart of the players in his hands he has to go --- but that doesn't let the players off the hook either, IF they haven't been playing to potential.

Until a few guys leave, we'll probably never know - and we still may never know. It's a bit like the rumoured "country club" atmosphere during Jarome's final few years here. Real or imagined?

I wouldn't like to be Tre right now: he has a VERY difficult series of decisions to make, and no matter what he does, not everyone will be happy. Particularly on CP, but also everywhere in Flamesland.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Goal differential is a great stat for showing which teams have good results. Just like wins, points, GF, GA etc all do. But they aren't a predictor on a smaller scale. You can't use goal diff during a game because the result of each game is solely determined by goal differential. So if a game is tied 0-0 after 1 period, goal diff is useless. However other advanced stats may paint a better picture of which team is carrying the play and is likely to win the game.

The Flames are (were?) top 3 in corsi. That should predict what then? Keeping in mind their record since January.

How are other top corsi teams doing? What does your regression analysis say? I think you should hit that very, very, very low bar. Nothing like grade 8 math getting in the way.

Also how it is an accurate individual in-game predictor when, in any given individual game, chance and random luck is highest (as opposed to a season, when such occurrences even out)?

[Strange Brew]

Friedman’s comments scream Dougie Hamilton.

[868904]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Not exactly. Friedman said he isn't sure that GG goes (which is a lot different from saying he thinks he stays). And he went into quite a bit more detail on the personnel issues.

He said the sense among the Flames management and around the league is that the Flames have issues around emotion. He said he expects Treliving to take a hard look at the one-ice personnel in order to address this problem. And that he expects Treliving to start considering moving players who he always gets calls on.

Basically, there's an issue with chemistry or the intensity of some core players on the Flames, and one of the ways Treliving will try to fix the team in the off-season is to move one more of the guys who he thinks are the problem.

It sounds like one of the reasons Treliving's reluctant to move GG is because it will be rewarding players who aren't holding up their end of the bargain when it comes to commitment and engagement. I know fans get emotionally attached to core players, but I have to think the GM has a much better insight into these matters than fans. There's something pretty seriously wrong with the Flames besides coaching and bottom-six scoring, and it looks like the GM might address that something in the summer.

If that's what Tre thinks then they should fire him too. There was no character or compete issue with this team under Hartley with pretty much the same core less Tkachuk and Hamonic who we don't question.