Francis: Treliving filled with disappointment, anger after team's collapse

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Table 5

I work with data quite a bit myself from a visualization perspective and one of primary things that I find is important is to assess and rank your data. You need to to understand what's driving the story, what adds detail, and what's just noise.

I find that advanced stats carry too much weight in the grand scheme of things. Personally, I think calling them "advanced stats" is a bit of a misnomer, as that implies that they are somehow better or more useful than basic stats if you are smart enough to understand them. To me, they are more akin to secondary stats...ie things that add nuance and detail to the big picture, but at the end of the day still rank behind the basics in terms of importance. As dumb as they are, Goals and Goal Differentials will always trump things like Shot-Counts or High-Quality Chances. You may win admiration with the latter stats, but you win hockey games with the former.

Very well said. I like the term secondary stats.

However, I also think that we're starting to pull a bit of a Gully. We're so focused on stats and numbers, to realize that the solution may have nothing to do with statistics at all. The missing element may be the human touch. The problem with Gulutzan may be one of personality and leadership style. You don't go to war for a spreadsheet, you go to war with a leader. I never go the impression from the guy that he is someone that commands attention when he walks into a room.

Above strategy, above player utilization, above all else, this may be a team that just needs a General more than anything right now.

I think you have this upside down.

I think Gulutzan is a pretty s##t coach, and that's the main problem. There's this stupid term, "a student of the game" that's sometimes thrown around to describe I guess analytical people in hockey. I think it's very descriptive of Gulutzan. If you go watch his symposiums, they have all the hallmarks of a bad lecture. Mostly boring and often lacking in a clear point or solid practical advice. This is usually what happens when people who don't actually understand what they are talking about try to explain it. Looking at what he's good at (creating structure and system) and what he's bad at (making adjustments, proper use of players), this I think supports this.

I think GG just does not understand hockey that well. He's the hardworking student who can quote you long litanies from memory, but can't explain what any of it means. He can look at what someone like Babcock is doing and see what's going on, but he doesn't really know why an actually good coach would use that particular strategy in that situation with those players. Which is why he can pick a strategy and get a team to execute it, like the Flames are doing, but he can't get it to work properly and he doesn't know what to do when that happens. It's also why he's incapable of properly reacting to things that happen within a game. He's probably slow to see what happens, and even if he does he doesn't know what he should do, because he'd need to understand things better to know that. The most likely reason IMO of his poor player usage is basically the same: he doesn't really understand what makes a certain player really good at something. All he can look at is stats.

I don't see lack of leadership or charisma, because the team clearly, consistently keeps doing what they're told. They play the system to the the point of frustration and desperation and keep doing that even when the season is gone. That to me suggests the coach has strict control of the room. That is not his problem.

Gulutzan as a coach is like many other Trelivongs acquisitions: a workhorse lacking in actual talent and skill.

(Why people keep saying "he has a great hockey mind" I don't know, because I can't see any evidence of that. I think it's something Trelivongs said and people just went with it.)

I happen to think this is a really crucial thing, because if the Flames think the problem is lack of character instead of lack of skill and get it wrong, they will just double down on the original problem.

Which is what I'm afraid will happen with the player moves too. I really hope I'm wrong somewhere.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

there's no stat though that shows how hard players work.

And that's a real thing that matters. So...

You are correct it's a real thing that matters and when that happens in a workplace the employees don't get fired, the boss does. When employees don't work hard in any workplace it's a direct reflection on management. The guy isn't a good coach. I don't even know why anyone would defend that at this stage.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

You are correct it's a real thing that matters and when that happens in a workplace the employees don't get fired, the boss does. When employees don't work hard in any workplace it's a direct reflection on management. The guy isn't a good coach. I don't even know why anyone would defend that at this stage.

If I remember correctly, nobody really liked the choice of GG as coach back when he was hired, either.
the most positive thing I remember is that people had faith in Treliving, so they'd give GG a chance.

just going by memory, but I think way more people though he was Dallas Eakins v2 than thought he was a good choice.

maybe GG should go into business teaching people how to ace job interviews. he must have really nailed his.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

If I remember correctly, nobody really liked the choice of GG as coach back when he was hired, either.
the most positive thing I remember is that people had faith in Treliving, so they'd give GG a chance.

just going by memory, but I think way more people though he was Dallas Eakins v2 than thought he was a good choice.

maybe GG should go into business teaching people how to ace job interviews. he must have really nailed his.

You are correct. I didn't like the hire at the time but tried to be open minded that he would be better in his 2nd go at head coach. I remember watching that video previously mentioned and coming off impressed so there was some hope that he could be the next great young coach. The Eakins comparison is interesting because the similarities are apparent from their highly philosophical approach, overly reliant focus on possession stats, right down to their hair. I will say that Gulutzan at least looks from my view like a much more likeable guy. Eakins always came off as the type that felt he was the smartest guy in the room.

I suppose we should be a little worried as Eakins was a guy that Treliving interviewed the first time around and seeing that he shares similar philosophies with Gulutzan may be a guy that Treliving looks at once again.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Itse

Very well said. I like the term secondary stats.







I think you have this upside down.



I think Gulutzan is a pretty s##t coach, and that's the main problem. There's this stupid term, "a student of the game" that's sometimes thrown around to describe I guess analytical people in hockey. I think it's very descriptive of Gulutzan. If you go watch his symposiums, they have all the hallmarks of a bad lecture. Mostly boring and often lacking in a clear point or solid practical advice. This is usually what happens when people who don't actually understand what they are talking about try to explain it. Looking at what he's good at (creating structure and system) and what he's bad at (making adjustments, proper use of players), this I think supports this.



I think GG just does not understand hockey that well. He's the hardworking student who can quote you long litanies from memory, but can't explain what any of it means. He can look at what someone like Babcock is doing and see what's going on, but he doesn't really know why an actually good coach would use that particular strategy in that situation with those players. Which is why he can pick a strategy and get a team to execute it, like the Flames are doing, but he can't get it to work properly and he doesn't know what to do when that happens. It's also why he's incapable of properly reacting to things that happen within a game. He's probably slow to see what happens, and even if he does he doesn't know what he should do, because he'd need to understand things better to know that. The most likely reason IMO of his poor player usage is basically the same: he doesn't really understand what makes a certain player really good at something. All he can look at is stats.



I don't see lack of leadership or charisma, because the team clearly, consistently keeps doing what they're told. They play the system to the the point of frustration and desperation and keep doing that even when the season is gone. That to me suggests the coach has strict control of the room. That is not his problem.



Gulutzan as a coach is like many other Trelivongs acquisitions: a workhorse lacking in actual talent and skill.



(Why people keep saying "he has a great hockey mind" I don't know, because I can't see any evidence of that. I think it's something Trelivongs said and people just went with it.)



I happen to think this is a really crucial thing, because if the Flames think the problem is lack of character instead of lack of skill and get it wrong, they will just double down on the original problem.



Which is what I'm afraid will happen with the player moves too. I really hope I'm wrong somewhere.

This is an interesting take. I’ve felt for a while the Gulutzan manages with cliches. Goal against, put out your veterans because everyone knows veterans will settle things down. Unfortunately our vets are arsonists. Score a goal, throw out your 4th line because everyone knows that’s the energy line that will maintain momentum..... Roll four lines cause that’s what good teams do. R/L matters cause Babcock... Brouwer is a better RH FO guy so leave him out until the game ends cause FO% is all that matters....

I’m sure this is unfair but it does help me explain some of the inexplicable.

[Toonage]

Not sure where to put it so I'll put it here.

Friedman on the Fan 960 just now thinks that the GG stays and they make personnel changes. Feels that Treliving doesn't think the coach should take all the heat for this season.

So pretty much worst case/nightmare scenario

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

So we are now at the point where watching the games, and analyzing them from what we see, is too subjective, and we have only sufficiently analyzed the play if we employ (weakly correlated) counting stats to verify our analysis?

Wow.

I'm certainly not suggesting that.

It's funny how things can spiral out of control. My initial suggestion was to take pause and really dig into what went wrong.

I mentioned luck likely played a role in it along with many things, and that I'd ask for a drill down on high danger chances to get to the bottom of why Calgary high danger chances aren't going in.

I'm a big eye test guy and always have been. I look to stats to see if they disagree with what I'm seeing or if they match bang on. Don't think that's out of order or telling anyone what or how to watch.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by edslunch

This is an interesting take. I’ve felt for a while the Gulutzan manages with cliches. Goal against, put out your veterans because everyone knows veterans will settle things down. Unfortunately our vets are arsonists. Score a goal, throw out your 4th line because everyone knows that’s the energy line that will maintain momentum..... Roll four lines cause that’s what good teams do. R/L matters cause Babcock... Brouwer is a better RH FO guy so leave him out until the game ends cause FO% is all that matters....

I’m sure this is unfair but it does help me explain some of the inexplicable.

I'm not sure it's unfair (other than it's of course a simplification).

My glimmer of hope here is that even if im right in my fear that Treliving is going to double down on "character", Darryl Sutter could still be the guy.

Other than that I just hope I'm mostly wrong.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Not sure where to put it so I'll put it here.

Friedman on the Fan 960 just now thinks that the GG stays and they make personnel changes. Feels that Treliving doesn't think the coach should take all the heat for this season.

So pretty much worst case/nightmare scenario

[Rejean31]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Not sure where to put it so I'll put it here.

Friedman on the Fan 960 just now thinks that the GG stays and they make personnel changes. Feels that Treliving doesn't think the coach should take all the heat for this season.

So pretty much worst case/nightmare scenario

If that’s the case Treliving can GTFO too!!

It’s the Marc Savard / Greg Gilbert fiasco all over again and I would suggest Treliving look very closely at how that ended for Craig Button!!

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by 4X4

I'm seriously starting to wonder if you, Jiri, and especially Bingo are getting paid by the Flames. Good for you, if so. They're getting their money's worth.

Do you actually look at this stuff before hitting "SUBMIT REPLY"?

So you're basically saying to disagree or not completely agree with you means the fix is in and people are on the payroll because you can't possibly be wrong or biased?

Must be a neat world you live in.

Go back and read everything I said ... you'll see me suggesting a deeper dive to explain why the numbers aren't leading to success. I mention the coaching and systems playing a role.

Why do so many people want to just jump without digging in? Bizarre behavior.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by nik-

Why?

There was a pretty noticeable turn in some of the posts from the team around the time the Arena fiasco was really heating up. I thought the timing was curious, and it seems to have continued into excessive defense of the coaching staff well beyond what would seem normal.

The owners of this site don't owe anything to anyone here except to keep the site running (and even that they don't). And if they want it to be profitable, then they should take income from whoever they want. They're not journalists, they've taken no oath to impartiality. It's just curious.

As far as stats, how many times does it need to be pointed out that the results are disconnected from the stats that keep getting parroted? It's borderline zealotry at this point.

Oh Jesus ...

Good for you though, you made 4x4's post seem more harmless!

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Not sure where to put it so I'll put it here.

Friedman on the Fan 960 just now thinks that the GG stays and they make personnel changes. Feels that Treliving doesn't think the coach should take all the heat for this season.

So pretty much worst case/nightmare scenario

I am a Treliving fan, but if this is true, he needs to go also. You can't speak with one side of your about getting emotionally ready for a game and on the other support a stiff Kleenex. GGs record in big games speaks for itself across a multitude of organizations.

Dallas x2- horrible down the stretch, no playoffs.
Vancouver - horrible down the stretch, beat by the 3 seed which I believe would have been 8th in the conference were it not for the division system.
Calgary- backed into the playoffs before going 0-4
Calgary- 1-9 down the stretch.


The fact that we were 0-7 against Edmonton going into the last month of the season is not a coincidence. This is as close as the flames got to big games mid season.

As a personal exercise think about yourself playing for or reporting to different coaches. There are guys you would go through walls for: Babcock, JQ, Sutter, Hitchcock, Julien , Carlyle to name a few. These are guys that have a presence in a room and motivate a group. I would barely trust GG to be the video guy and would keep him far away from the team in game day.

Let's see what happens this week. I have not found Elliot to be a reliable source on the internal workings of the flames, but his prediction is a worst case scenario for this team.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by nik-

Integrity in what? This is a hockey forum. Again, they don't owe anyone here anything. They can post however they want for whatever motives they want.

That does nothing to discredit their integrity.

Of course it does, and it's troubling that you don't see it.

You're basically accusing a bunch of posters of pretending to have opposing opinions on a public forum to support an organization that is paying them to do so.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Not sure where to put it so I'll put it here.

Friedman on the Fan 960 just now thinks that the GG stays and they make personnel changes. Feels that Treliving doesn't think the coach should take all the heat for this season.

So pretty much worst case/nightmare scenario

If this is the case, Treliving should go.

Flashback: when Tre couldn’t re-sign Cammalleri, who led the team in scoring, he signed Mason Raymond and noted they needed a proven NHLer in that slot. I questioned him for sure

The team with Feaster’s core and coach made the playoffs and Tre made some other signings and moves here and there since that bought good will. Put some currency in that bank account they talk about.

This is more like Tre draining that account, mortgaging his house, taking half and putting it all on red. It landed on black, so he is taking the remaining pile and putting it all on red again.


I don’t buy it. I think Gulutzan is shown the door.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by 4X4

Because according to what I read in this thread, unless you've actually punched the corsi numbers, you aren't taking everything into account, which nullifies my opinion. According to Bingo.

Certainly not my intention ... if I did suggest opinions should be nullified then I didn't mean to.

Can you show me where I did that?

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

If this is the case, Treliving should go.

Flashback: when Tre couldn’t re-sign Cammalleri, who led the team in scoring, he signed Mason Raymond and noted they needed a proven NHLer in that slot. I questioned him for sure

The team with Feaster’s core and coach made the playoffs and Tre made some other signings and moves here and there since that bought good will. Put some currency in that bank account they talk about.

This is more like Tre draining that account, mortgaging his house, taking half and putting it all on red. It landed on black, so he is taking the remaining pile and putting it all on red again.


I don’t buy it. I think Gulutzan is shown the door.

That was Burke IIRC. Treliving came on after that.

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

That was Burke IIRC. Treliving came on after that.

It was Burke. He wasn't going to trade Cammalleri for "less than a premium" so he just walked and signed with the Devils.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by gargamel

You haven't, but Bingo basically did in this exchange this morning.

I think that condescending post is why people are being a bit more combative than usual. You (Jiri) and Textcritic are just getting caught in the crossfire.

Well certainly wasn't my intent, that is to be condescending.

When you suggest a deep dive on the high danger chances to get to the bottom of something only to have it summarized by "this is what we've been saying all along" ... its frustrating.

Earlier I was told by another poster that their analysis says something else. I said what analysis? I haven't seen it.

Nowhere am I telling anyone their opinion is wrong, or doesn't matter.

That's not my style and it hasn't been for 20 years.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Frank MetaMusil

It was Burke. He wasn't going to trade Cammalleri for "less than a premium" so he just walked and signed with the Devils.

That was the trade deadline.

The Flames tried hard to sign Cammalleri on Jul 1 but wouldn’t commit to term. That’s why he walked.