Treliving needs to start feeling the heat

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Reunite Gio and Brodie in the hopes Brodie can get back to what he once was, pair Dougie and Travis letting Dougie roam a bit more and use his offensive talent, keep third pairing the same.

Brodie is great on his off side, but you're forcing one of Hamonic or Hamilton to do the same ... that may not be ideal.

The only way that happens is if you promote Kulak and balance the ice time.

[Tinordi]

I look at the Hamonic deal in economic terms. Is the marginal value of Hamonic greater than the value of the assets? We'll never know but just keying in on Hamonic's value to the team, it's difficult to tell which is not a great first indicator.

I think it's clear he's made this team better, but the question is how much better? To me that's where Treliving's valuation in the trade was off. I don't think Hamonic has really pushed this team over the edge, if you're trading a 1st and two 2nd rounders then you ideally want that to lead to a step change not incremental change which is what has happened.

I get Treliving's strategy here, it's basically Nashville. If you don't have that elite talent up front in the lineup then you don't and there's no way to get it besides tanking or getting incredibly lucky in the draft. Elite front-line talent is just not available for trade.

Good to great defencemen are available in the trade market however, and there's a theory in team building that a great defence can overcome lack of scoring and elite talent up front. Nashville being the preferred example.

Unfortunately, Treliving's gamble hasn't paid off. He's assembled a poor-man's version of Nashville's D, with roughly similar forward talent. And it's for that that I'm not a fan on the trade. I think the 1st rounder has a higher likelihood of being the asset that stimulates a step change. Think drafting Barzal or Ehlers or someone like that than having Hamonic.

But I don't hold it against Treliving. He's seen the writing on the wall. The rebuild is over, what you see is what you get with the talent levels on this team at forward. He had to go in with this group and try to push it over the top. It didn't work, but I don't blame him for trying. Too many fans promote play-it-safe management. If you have a window you need to go for it. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Unfortunately we're on the latter half.

[Flamefan1]

I am a huge supporter of Treliving, but my one beef is his selection of coaches. I am not sure if Brad hired Cameron or if Gully hired him, but regardless Brad should have resolved this huge problem by now and needs to address it very soon. I think the Flames have assembled the best team since the the late 80s. Brad is not totally responsible for this very good team, but he definitely has really helped build this team. Please Brad at the very least get rid of Cameron or bring in a additional offensive coach to change the power play before it is to late. We do have the right players, but we need to implement w workable system with the players that are in our roster. Please do not make a trade to bring in another retread. I am very surprised Burke has not intervened.

[neo45]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Brodie is great on his off side, but you're forcing one of Hamonic or Hamilton to do the same ... that may not be ideal.

The only way that happens is if you promote Kulak and balance the ice time.

Which would also mean demoting one of Hamonic and Hamilton who we paid handsomely to acquire.

I think the Brodie/Gio reunion questions are just trying to address a problem that doesn’t exist. Our defense is working, especially the top pair. Hamonic and Brodie (factoring out a couple huge Brodie gaffes) look like they are improving. Kulak and Stone are the best third pairing we have had in awhile.

I think Brodie’s underwhelming performance (which I believe is a bit overstated anyways) immediately gets transferred to Dougie the second we change the D pairings.

And it’s also no sure thing that Kulak would be able to backfill Brodie’s role. He has been a good #6 but that is a bigger ask than people think.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Not by the numbers.

Up to December 5th the Flames were giving up 8.0 scoring chances per game, but since then they've decreased those chances by 10% sitting 7.2 per game, shot attempts and shots are pretty neutral.

8.0 against per night is a middling team (14th), while 7.2 is a top two or three team in terms of what they're giving up.

Smith has been great, but so too has the team defense.

Could this be at the expense of scoring? It is a small sample size, and includes both a winning and losing streak, but that is a concern.

Or maybe it all just comes down to the PP. And coming up big in key moments.

But I wonder if the Flames put enough pressure on their opponents.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Could this be at the expense of scoring? It is a small sample size, and includes both a winning and losing streak, but that is a concern.

Or maybe it all just comes down to the PP. And coming up big in key moments.

But I wonder if the Flames put enough pressure on their opponents.

I too would be interested to know if during this stretch where the Flames high danger chances against has dropped from 8.0% to 7.2%, has their high danger scoring chances for also dropped.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I too would be interested to know if during this stretch where the Flames high danger chances against has dropped from 8.0% to 7.2%, has their high danger scoring chances for also dropped.

Bingo posts numbers regularly in his Game Takes which show that the Flames are regularly outchancing their opponents in high-danger areas, so I would be surprised if the number has shifted much at all with the reduction in scoring chances against.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

...Good to great defencemen are available in the trade market however, and there's a theory in team building that a great defence can overcome lack of scoring and elite talent up front. Nashville being the preferred example.

Unfortunately, Treliving's gamble hasn't paid off. He's assembled a poor-man's version of Nashville's D, with roughly similar forward talent. And it's for that that I'm not a fan on the trade. I think the 1st rounder has a higher likelihood of being the asset that stimulates a step change. Think drafting Barzal or Ehlers or someone like that than having Hamonic.

But I don't hold it against Treliving. He's seen the writing on the wall. The rebuild is over, what you see is what you get with the talent levels on this team at forward. He had to go in with this group and try to push it over the top. It didn't work, but I don't blame him for trying. Too many fans promote play-it-safe management. If you have a window you need to go for it. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Unfortunately we're on the latter half.

It hasn't all come together YET, and this is what too many fans continue to overlook. Treliving's vision goes beyond just this season. We should not draw firm conclusions about the Hamonic trade until after another year or two because while the team appeared poised in the summer to make a run it was also clear that there remained work to be done over the next few seasons as well. It was never "either / or" with regards to improving the defense and forwards. It has always been "both / and."

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

at the expense of the offense from the defense drying up compared to previous years.
I think someone posted number sin another thread and the flames are on pace to have about 25% less points coming from the D compared to last year.

When I ran the numbers after game 47 the flames top 3 we're a single point off the previous years pace with more goals scored.

Any decline from the defense is coming specifically from stone over Wideman and hamonic over Engelland. After 47 games Wideman had 11 more points than Stone had.

I think saying there has been drop in production from the defense is innaccurate in order to prove a non existent point about coaching.

This is a better offensive and defensive roster than last year.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I too would be interested to know if during this stretch where the Flames high danger chances against has dropped from 8.0% to 7.2%, has their high danger scoring chances for also dropped.

It's had an effect, but the overall impact has the differential better.

Before Dec 5th the Flames were 9.3/8.0 + 1.3
After Dec 5th the Flames are 8.9/7.2 + 1.7

They've gone from average in preventing to elite, and have gone from elite in generating to above average.

To put that in perspective, +1.3 would be 6th overall in the NHL to date, +1.7 is 2nd overall behind only Dallas.

The Flames on the season as a whole are +1.5 and 5th (essentially tied for 2nd)

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

It's had an effect, but the overall impact has the differential better.

Before Dec 5th the Flames were 9.3/8.0 + 1.3
After Dec 5th the Flames are 8.9/7.2 + 1.7

They've gone from average in preventing to elite, and have gone from elite in generating to above average.

To put that in perspective, +1.3 would be 6th overall in the NHL to date, +1.7 is 2nd overall behind only Dallas.

The Flames on the season as a whole are +1.5 and 5th (essentially tied for 2nd)

What site provides these numbers now? Is it still Corsica?

And really I don't think it can be understated how much a poor shooting percentage is hurting this team. Whether that's luck or talent remains to be seen but they are still generating chances as you showed above.

Just looking back at the last couple years with largely a similar core of players.

14/15: 10.5% - 1st
15/16: 9.5% - 7th
16/17: 9.3% - 14th
17/18: 8.4% - 23rd

So if you look at that you could say 14/15 was clearly lucky, the next two years are probably about what the "talent" level of this team dictates, and then this year is unlucky.

Team has scored 137 goals on 1629 shots this year. If they were shooting about the same as the last two seasons (9.4%) we would have 153 goals. Considering all the close games the Flames have been in and lost this season those 16 goals would go a long way in the standings.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

I look at the Hamonic deal in economic terms. Is the marginal value of Hamonic greater than the value of the assets? We'll never know but just keying in on Hamonic's value to the team, it's difficult to tell which is not a great first indicator.

I think it's clear he's made this team better, but the question is how much better? To me that's where Treliving's valuation in the trade was off. I don't think Hamonic has really pushed this team over the edge, if you're trading a 1st and two 2nd rounders then you ideally want that to lead to a step change not incremental change which is what has happened.

I get Treliving's strategy here, it's basically Nashville. If you don't have that elite talent up front in the lineup then you don't and there's no way to get it besides tanking or getting incredibly lucky in the draft. Elite front-line talent is just not available for trade.

Good to great defencemen are available in the trade market however, and there's a theory in team building that a great defence can overcome lack of scoring and elite talent up front. Nashville being the preferred example.

Unfortunately, Treliving's gamble hasn't paid off. He's assembled a poor-man's version of Nashville's D, with roughly similar forward talent. And it's for that that I'm not a fan on the trade. I think the 1st rounder has a higher likelihood of being the asset that stimulates a step change. Think drafting Barzal or Ehlers or someone like that than having Hamonic.

But I don't hold it against Treliving. He's seen the writing on the wall. The rebuild is over, what you see is what you get with the talent levels on this team at forward. He had to go in with this group and try to push it over the top. It didn't work, but I don't blame him for trying. Too many fans promote play-it-safe management. If you have a window you need to go for it. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Unfortunately we're on the latter half.

In addition to what Textcritic already wrote about the Hamonic trade not paying off..so far, the only other thing I'd add is that I think fans aren't too safe, they're far too speculative.

There's an obsession with magic beans management. The idea that what we have on the farm, what we have in our junior prospects, what we have in our future draft picks, is going to be the thing that pushes us over the edge and that they should be promoted to the big club right away and replace the vets who are over-the-hill and don't play hungry or with passion.

Fans tend to forget that the GM is making moves to win and also to preserve his job. Call it old school outdated thinking but 99% of GMs are wary of adopting a strategy that relies heavily on drafting top end talent, especially with mid round picks, because in all likelihood they'll be fired well before those picks ever payoff, if they ever do.

[killer_carlson]

Originally Posted by Wild GM

I get that. But I don't know that it needs to be done publicly. I imagine that pressure is on though.
Short of BT coming out and saying "Boy our PP sucks, I'm going to demand GG fire Dave Cameron" I don't know what would satisfy the masses.
I thought GG's responses about the powerplay yesterday, and how it is costing them, were pretty on point.
To which a lot of fans will say "THEN DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT".
Which is why I go back to the original point - hockey interviews are useless. Utterly useless.

I think it needs to be done publicly because:

A) I want to see proof it's actually asked; and
B) as a fan I would like to know that the team's GM hears the angst. For all I know he's surrounded himself with Yes men or Tier One management like other organizations. I don't want to see fans throwing jerseys to get his attention if things continue to slide.

So I don't think they are useless. I want to see public pressure on the GM. And I'd like to see it escalated if he continues to sit on his hands.

[Textcritic]

Your post makes some assertions of varying relevance and also a fairly sizeable assumption:

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

I think it needs to be done publicly because:

A) I want to see proof it's actually asked

This is more in line with precisely what Wild GM was getting at: the ONLY purpose of creating a public forum around decisions and actions of the team's coach and management is to placate an irrational segment of the fanbase. The answers will be vague and disappointing, and the exercise will be pointless beyond the cathartic effect it might have on some. Honestly, it is meaningless and unhelpful. It would change virtually nothing.

B) as a fan I would like to know that the team's GM hears the angst. For all I know he's surrounded himself with Yes men or Tier One management like other organizations. I don't want to see fans throwing jerseys to get his attention if things continue to slide.

In the first place, there is a recourse that all fans have readily available to them for expressing their own displeasure, and which will produce immediate results. If it bothers you so much, then stop buying tickets and merchandise. But even beyond all that, I am puzzled by your characterization of the present situation as one that sees the team in a "slide." Yes, I will agree that 0 wins in their last five games is a "slide" inasmuch as every NHL team will go through ebbs and flows between very good and less good performances (or very bad and more bad performances). But the Flames who have lost five straight games are also the same team that has only two regulation losses in their last 16 games. They are a single point out of a division playoff spot, and two points off of a home-ice berth.

This is not the picture of some sort of systemic crisis that would require a full-scale, decisive response or change. At worst, the Flames are marginally "underperforming" relative to where they "should" be at this point this season.

So I don't think they are useless. I want to see public pressure on the GM. And I'd like to see it escalated if he continues to sit on his hands.

Why do you think Treliving is sitting on his hands?

I suspect it is because he hasn't fired anyone or traded half the team away in a gesture that would match the outrage of some of the fanbase. I suspect he has not done so because he also possesses a greater attention-span and a much more analytical disposition than most. But I also do not believe that Treliving is not actively working to improve the team at every turn. The difference here is that his actions do not coincide with your wishes, but that is certainly not reason to think he is not doing his job.

Maybe it is just me, but I certainly prefer this less reactionary approach. I think it promotes stability and affords the necessary time for internal growth.

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

I think it needs to be done publicly because:

A) I want to see proof it's actually asked; and
B) as a fan I would like to know that the team's GM hears the angst. For all I know he's surrounded himself with Yes men or Tier One management like other organizations. I don't want to see fans throwing jerseys to get his attention if things continue to slide.

So I don't think they are useless. I want to see public pressure on the GM. And I'd like to see it escalated if he continues to sit on his hands.

I know someone mentioned that Ken King use to give out his email address so fan can email him with suggestion or complaint. Does anyone know Treliving's email address? Can us, the fan, email him about our angst?

[Toonage]

I'm sure King had a filter where every address not from an approved list of senders was directed right to the trash.

As for sitting on his hands, I'm betting Treliving is hard at work at an extension agreement with Evander Kane before pulling the trigger on that trade.

Kidding.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by midniteowl

I know someone mentioned that Ken King use to give out his email address so fan can email him with suggestion or complaint. Does anyone know Treliving's email address? Can us, the fan, email him about our angst?

Is this a serious question?

How much time do you think a NHL General Manager has at his disposal to wade through hundreds or thousands of complaints or suggestions from unqualified, nameless, faceless fans?

Brad Treliving does not answer to you.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

What site provides these numbers now? Is it still Corsica?

And really I don't think it can be understated how much a poor shooting percentage is hurting this team. Whether that's luck or talent remains to be seen but they are still generating chances as you showed above.

Just looking back at the last couple years with largely a similar core of players.

14/15: 10.5% - 1st
15/16: 9.5% - 7th
16/17: 9.3% - 14th
17/18: 8.4% - 23rd

So if you look at that you could say 14/15 was clearly lucky, the next two years are probably about what the "talent" level of this team dictates, and then this year is unlucky.

Team has scored 137 goals on 1629 shots this year. If they were shooting about the same as the last two seasons (9.4%) we would have 153 goals. Considering all the close games the Flames have been in and lost this season those 16 goals would go a long way in the standings.

Natural Stat Trick for the core data, but then you have to manipulate the hell out of it.

I think they're pressing.

The best way to see that is in the miss totals that the Flames continue to have.

Missed shots 1st (that's the total at 718, next closest is Carolina at 691)

Crossbars - 11 (1st, 7 is 2nd)
Posts - 27 (13th)
Over the Net - 79 (3rd)
Wide - 601 (tied for first)

Young core trying to be too perfect on shots is my guess.

And this is why I think things are going to break in the right direction. They have the chances against down, becoming an elite differential team with a really high missed shot total.

Confidence will change everything.

Personally I'd have them shooting middle of the net for the month of February and see what happens.

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Is this a serious question?

How much time do you think a NHL General Manager has at his disposal to wade through hundreds or thousands of complaints or suggestions from unqualified, nameless, faceless fans?

Brad Treliving does not answer to you.

Ha! This is why there so much bickering on this board lately. So much angst. Like Toonage posted saying Ken King has filter where every address not from an approved list of senders was directed right to the trash is suffice. Do you have to be so superior in every reply? But anyway, thanks for you reply.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Natural Stat Trick for the core data, but then you have to manipulate the hell out of it.

I think they're pressing.

The best way to see that is in the miss totals that the Flames continue to have.

Missed shots 1st (that's the total at 718, next closest is Carolina at 691)

Crossbars - 11 (1st, 7 is 2nd)
Posts - 27 (13th)
Over the Net - 79 (3rd)
Wide - 601 (tied for first)

Young core trying to be too perfect on shots is my guess.

And this is why I think things are going to break in the right direction. They have the chances against down, becoming an elite differential team with a really high missed shot total.

Confidence will change everything.

Personally I'd have them shooting middle of the net for the month of February and see what happens.

When you say this, are you suggesting that it happens soon (ie this month/season) or do you mean as they age, so next season?