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Old 03-15-2017, 04:05 PM   #4221
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$12M would already be the highest cap hit in the league and would take up 15.74% of Edmonton's cap (assuming the cap is at $76M). Do you really think he could go up to $13M? That feels really high.
On a long term deal I absolutely think that McDavid will expect that much. Don't forget that Crosby's deal which accounted for 17% of the salary cap at the time was also only a five year deal. If the Oilers sign McDavid for 6, 7 or 8 years the dollar value and cap hit are both going to be massive.
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Old 03-15-2017, 05:15 PM   #4222
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On a long term deal I absolutely think that McDavid will expect that much. Don't forget that Crosby's deal which accounted for 17% of the salary cap at the time was also only a five year deal. If the Oilers sign McDavid for 6, 7 or 8 years the dollar value and cap hit are both going to be massive.
Top players were taking more at the time then they are now.

Iginla signed for like 18% of the Flames cap right after the lockout.

Kane and Toews are currently at the top with 14% each.

We'll see how it plays out.
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Old 03-15-2017, 05:21 PM   #4223
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Top players were taking more at the time then they are now.
I don't believe you.

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Iginla signed for like 18% of the Flames cap right after the lockout.

Kane and Toews are currently at the top with 14% each.

We'll see how it plays out.
At the time they signed their deals (9 July 2014) their contracts represented 16% of the 2014-15 salary cap. I will maintain that I will be surprised to see McDavid come in under $14 m on a long term deal.
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Old 03-15-2017, 05:30 PM   #4224
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On a long term deal I absolutely think that McDavid will expect that much. Don't forget that Crosby's deal which accounted for 17% of the salary cap at the time was also only a five year deal. If the Oilers sign McDavid for 6, 7 or 8 years the dollar value and cap hit are both going to be massive.
It wasn't so long ago Johnny Gaudreau was going to get $8.25+ on an eight year deal.

Three players have cap hits over $10M. Between those three players, they have eight Stanley Cups.

Maybe he gets Ovechkin money - $9.5 x 8 years.

The cap is projected to be around $76M next year - I just don't see how you can pay an RFA $10M+ a season. I don't care who it is. Nobody's that good, and it hurts your team. That extra two or three million can be two rental players at the deadline - if you value winning, you can't sign a $10+ deal at 21.

Toews, Kopitar and Kane all won multiple times before they got their double digit salaries. Yet Edmonton should just pay McDavid because McDavid?

Let's put it this way. A good organization doesn't pay 21 year old McDavid 10 plus a year. So the Oilers probably will.
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Old 03-15-2017, 06:00 PM   #4225
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Anyone who thinks Mcdavid will earn a penny less than 12 mill average is freaking dreaming. I'm hoping for more obviously, but I'd bet my house it comes down to around the 12 mill a year mark. That's 96 mill over 8 years. Maybe they bring him up to a 97 million dollar contract.

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Old 03-15-2017, 06:07 PM   #4226
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I don't believe you.
Look it up. It's fact.

Lecavilier and Richards both signed contracts for max salary right after the lockout. Iginla was getting 7 million out of 39 cap.

The percentage of the cap taken up by the top players has steadily declined since 05/06.
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Old 03-15-2017, 06:07 PM   #4227
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There has never been a case in NHL history where an RFA will have as much leverage as mcdavid. If you want to contort your brain to believe that he'll give them a deal, g'head, but don't do it based on contracts already signed.
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Old 03-15-2017, 06:08 PM   #4228
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At the time they signed their deals (9 July 2014) their contracts represented 16% of the 2014-15 salary cap. I will maintain that I will be surprised to see McDavid come in under $14 m on a long term deal.
Also, the actual salaries on Kane and Toews' contracts for the first three seasons are at the maximum 20% of the available cap that was allowed on the day they signed their new contracts ($13.8M on a $69M cap).

Their cap hit is lower because their annual salaries decline in the later years of their contracts once they're over the age of 30.

If McDavid signs an 8 year second contract, he'll only be 29 when it expires. There should be no expectation that he'd take less money at the end of the deal when those should be his prime years. They might be able to convince him to take a little less for the RFA years of the contract, but that should be a hard sell when he's been leading the Art Ross race most of the season in only his second pro year.


If he signs for anything less than whatever 20% of the cap is on the day he signs, that has to be considered a big win for the Oilers.
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Old 03-15-2017, 06:35 PM   #4229
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Also, the actual salaries on Kane and Toews' contracts for the first three seasons are at the maximum 20% of the available cap that was allowed on the day they signed their new contracts ($13.8M on a $69M cap).

Their cap hit is lower because their annual salaries decline in the later years of their contracts once they're over the age of 30.

If McDavid signs an 8 year second contract, he'll only be 29 when it expires. There should be no expectation that he'd take less money at the end of the deal when those should be his prime years. They might be able to convince him to take a little less for the RFA years of the contract, but that should be a hard sell when he's been leading the Art Ross race most of the season in only his second pro year.


If he signs for anything less than whatever 20% of the cap is on the day he signs, that has to be considered a big win for the Oilers.
I believe the most recent CBA put in a stipulation that actual salary can only deviate by 5% from the AAV. This was designed as a way to keep GM's from signing front loaded contracts.

If McDavid signs a contract for 20% of the salary cap, he's going to need to make near 20% the whole way. However, I would guess the actually salary isn't an issue for Edmonton. It will always be an issue of cap management.
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Old 03-15-2017, 06:38 PM   #4230
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I believe the most recent CBA put in a stipulation that actual salary can only deviate by 5% from the AAV. This was designed as a way to keep GM's from signing front loaded contracts.

If McDavid signs a contract for 20% of the salary cap, he's going to need to make near 20% the whole way. However, I would guess the actually salary isn't an issue for Edmonton. It will always be an issue of cap management.
I guess whatever McDavid makes, it's going to be hard to build a relevant team around him when Nuge, Eberle and Lucic combine to make $18M.
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Old 03-15-2017, 06:43 PM   #4231
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It wasn't so long ago Johnny Gaudreau was going to get $8.25+ on an eight year deal.

Three players have cap hits over $10M. Between those three players, they have eight Stanley Cups.

Maybe he gets Ovechkin money - $9.5 x 8 years.

The cap is projected to be around $76M next year - I just don't see how you can pay an RFA $10M+ a season. I don't care who it is. Nobody's that good, and it hurts your team. That extra two or three million can be two rental players at the deadline - if you value winning, you can't sign a $10+ deal at 21.

Toews, Kopitar and Kane all won multiple times before they got their double digit salaries. Yet Edmonton should just pay McDavid because McDavid?

Let's put it this way. A good organization doesn't pay 21 year old McDavid 10 plus a year. So the Oilers probably will.
Forget 10M they will pay 12M+ because if they don't another team will and he knows it. You don't think the NY or TO would find 12M to bring in the most marketable player in the NHL
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Old 03-16-2017, 01:06 AM   #4232
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Forget 10M they will pay 12M+ because if they don't another team will and he knows it. You don't think the NY or TO would find 12M to bring in the most marketable player in the NHL
I believe every team - with the exception of the teams really hurting financially (and even then, maybe they would think he might help change things) - would get in line to hand McDavid 12+ million.
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Old 03-16-2017, 01:41 AM   #4233
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I believe every team - with the exception of the teams really hurting financially (and even then, maybe they would think he might help change things) - would get in line to hand McDavid 12+ million.
They'd get in line to pay Malkin $12M on the open market too. But he makes $9.5.

Toronto is not lining up to give Connor McDavid $12M because then they have to pay Auston Matthews $11M. What would you imagine Matthews gets on his second contract? Maybe Tarasenko money? Nobody's giving him $10+, and he wouldn't ask for it. McDavid is not $4M+ better than Auston Matthews. Not in a world with a salary cap.

Ditto the Islanders - they're going to pay McDavid more than Tavares? Why?

McDavid is a great young player, but why is he worth so much more than every other great young player? Is it just because Edmonton?
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Old 03-16-2017, 04:09 AM   #4234
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Forget 10M they will pay 12M+ because if they don't another team will and he knows it. You don't think the NY or TO would find 12M to bring in the most marketable player in the NHL
If he holds out 3 or 4 teams will offer sheet him $14m+

Orr knows McDavid holds all the cards plus a couple of aces up each sleeve, there won't be any haircut for this kid.
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Old 03-16-2017, 08:37 AM   #4235
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Think of it this way...

If you completely took all memory of McDavid out of the Oilers organization where would they be today?

The boy is gonna get paid.
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Old 03-16-2017, 08:46 AM   #4236
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You guys have sucked all the joy out of this thread...
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Old 03-16-2017, 08:47 AM   #4237
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I usually look forward to this thread, but all this contract talk, like the Oilers, is NO GOOD
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THIS is why people make fun of Edmonton. When will this stupid city figure it out? They continue to kick their own ass every day, it's impossible not to make fun of them.
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Old 03-16-2017, 01:16 PM   #4238
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I believe the most recent CBA put in a stipulation that actual salary can only deviate by 5% from the AAV. This was designed as a way to keep GM's from signing front loaded contracts.
Front-loaded contracts are still allowed, but there is a limit on how much the salaries can drop off in later years:

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50.7 Variability Rules for Multi-Year SPCs.

(a) For all "Front-Loaded SPCs" (as defined below), the difference between the stated Player Salary and Bonuses in any immediately adjacent League Years of that SPC cannot exceed thirty-five (35) percent of the stated Player Salary and Bonuses of the first League Year of such Front-Loaded SPC. Additionally, under no circumstances may the stated Player Salary and Bonuses in any League Year of a Front-Loaded SPC be less than fifty (50) percent of the highest stated Player Salary and Bonuses in a League Year of that same Front-Loaded SPC.
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Old 03-16-2017, 01:16 PM   #4239
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It would be funny if McDavid holds out and leaves E=NG land by accepting an offer sheet!
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Old 03-16-2017, 01:40 PM   #4240
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It would be funny if McDavid holds out and leaves E=NG land by accepting an offer sheet!
It is fun to fantasize about. I wonder what Lowe would say in the press conference? Lucic? Oh man.
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