[Trade] Sens trade Lazar and Kostka to the Flames for a 2nd + Jokipakka

[bigrangy]

I look at it like this

Curtis Lazar = 5% chance at a top 6 impact player, 90% chance at a decent depth guy, ready to play now

2nd round pick = 10% chance at a top 6 impact player, 30% chance at a decent depth guy, ready to play in 1-3 years

The percentages are made up of course but I feel that they would be roughly accurate.

The Flames can use more decent depth guys since the development system seems to not work.

[_Q_]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

I look at it like this

Curtis Lazar = 5% chance at a top 6 impact player, 90% chance at a decent depth guy, ready to play now

2nd round pick = 10% chance at a top 6 impact player, 30% chance at a decent depth guy, ready to play in 1-3 years

The percentages are made up of course but I feel that they would be roughly accurate.

The Flames can use more decent depth guys since the development system seems to not work.

More like

2nd round pick = 1% chance of an impact top 6 player, 5% chance of depth guy, 94% chance they never play more than 10 games in the NHL.

Seriously, draft picks are so severely over rated.

[topfiverecords]

Who cares about a 2nd round pick. The 4th round is where you get the T.J. Brodies and the Johnny Gaudreaus.

[MisterJoji]

This argument is so pointless. There is no way to know who won this trade until we see how Lazar progresses and who Ottawa selects with their pick and how they progress. That's at least a good 5 years away. Just like the Sven trade, people want to say Vancouver won because he's putting up some adequate numbers, however until we see how Rasmus' game translates to the NHL, there is no point in picking a "winner" now. I just like that Treliving is extremely thorough and has done a trade from both ends of this type of spectrum. Who knows, it could be one of those trades that benefits both teams. Lazar becomes a gritty 20/20 guy and Ottawa picks a similar player. 🤷🏼#♂️.

[Commandant]

When he was drafted 17th overall in 2013 by the Ottawa Senators, Curtis Lazar had no idea the path that his career would travel. Since draft night, its been a bumpy and uneven path to say the least. On Wednesday he found himself leaving the only NHL team he had known, and on the way to a new home.

http://lastwordonhockey.com/2017/03/...algary-flames/

[Iceman90]

Lazar will be wearing #20 for the Flames it looks like.

[Point Blank]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

I look at it like this

Curtis Lazar = 5% chance at a top 6 impact player, 90% chance at a decent depth guy, ready to play now

2nd round pick = 10% chance at a top 6 impact player, 30% chance at a decent depth guy, ready to play in 1-3 years

The percentages are made up of course but I feel that they would be roughly accurate.

The Flames can use more decent depth guys since the development system seems to not work.

If you don't back up your probability with actual evidence there's no substance to your argument.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by Iceman90

Lazar will be wearing #20 for the Flames it looks like.

but... but.... the Flames website has him listed as #27...

[Iceman90]

Originally Posted by Buff

but... but.... the Flames website has him listed as #27...

That is Hamilton's number.

[goodyear]

I like this new Curtis is not as mopey as the old Curtis #20

Sent from my SM-G920W8 using Tapatalk

[StrykerSteve]

Originally Posted by Commandant

When he was drafted 17th overall in 2013 by the Ottawa Senators, Curtis Lazar had no idea the path that his career would travel. Since draft night, its been a bumpy and uneven path to say the least. On Wednesday he found himself leaving the only NHL team he had known, and on the way to a new home.

http://lastwordonhockey.com/2017/03/...algary-flames/

Decent article but a lot of typos and spelling errors made it difficult to read.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

I look at it like this

Curtis Lazar = 5% chance at a top 6 impact player, 90% chance at a decent depth guy, ready to play now

2nd round pick = 10% chance at a top 6 impact player, 30% chance at a decent depth guy, ready to play in 1-3 years

The percentages are made up of course but I feel that they would be roughly accurate.

The Flames can use more decent depth guys since the development system seems to not work.

You might want to reconsider your %

You are saying is 3 2nd round picks every draft develop into an impact top 6 forward and an additional 10 turn into good depth guys. What you are saying is almost half the 2nd round will be NHL regulars at least.

I agree that Lazar's chances of being an impact too 6 forward is 5% or less. I think his ceiling is Glencross offensive numbers who will also wear a letter and be highly regarded by his teammates and coaches. I am hoping for a great 3rd liner or an average 2nd liner.

[Fire]

Originally Posted by MisterJoji

This argument is so pointless. There is no way to know who won this trade until we see how Lazar progresses and who Ottawa selects with their pick and how they progress. That's at least a good 5 years away. Just like the Sven trade, people want to say Vancouver won because he's putting up some adequate numbers, however until we see how Rasmus' game translates to the NHL, there is no point in picking a "winner" now. I just like that Treliving is extremely thorough and has done a trade from both ends of this type of spectrum. Who knows, it could be one of those trades that benefits both teams. Lazar becomes a gritty 20/20 guy and Ottawa picks a similar player. 🤷🏼#♂️.

The player the Senators pick is very unlikely to be the same player the Flames would have picked so just looking at that player wouldn't be enough. A better way to determine if the Flames made a mistake or not would be to look at the player the Senators selected and also the next 10 or so players selected. This would provide a better idea if the Flames "won" the trade or not.

[flamesrule14]

I've watched Lazar a lot during his time with the Oil Kings. Probably 20 plus games a season plus all the playoff games. Always kinda thought he was overrated especially in his draft year. I just don't think he has the offence to ever be a top 6 guy. If he does turn his career around I think his ceiling is a bottom 6 guy. Wasn't a huge fan of the deal when I heard it yesterday. Hope he can prove me wrong though as he seems like a good kid. Hopefully the change of scenery will help him. It'll be interesting to see where they play him when he does get in the lineup.

Gotta say so disappointed in Jokipakka this season. Liked his game when he came over last season, but just was never able to get back there this year. Him and Kulak just couldn't grab that third pairing spot. Wish him luck with the sens.

[Mister Yamoto]

If that second turns out to be anything, good for the Senators and good for that player.

It would have no affect whatsoever for the Flames.

Whether or not the move is a good one depends 100% on Lazar.

Same thing with the Hamilton deal. Whatever those picks turn out to be for the Bruins don't affect the Flames one bit.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The lack of self awareness is astounding

In the last 14 years, the Oilers have drafted 13 players in the 2nd round.

ONE of them (Jeff Petry) has scored 20 goals IN HIS CAREER.

Acquiring ANY useful player - even a good 4th rounder, who Lazar projects to be better than - is a good return for a 2nd rounder.

This idea that you're going to get Saad or Weber from every 2nd round pick is ridiculous. Each team gets a top 6 / top 4 player from the 2nd round once every 10 years or so.

ANY useful NHL player is a good use of a 2nd round pick.

Everyone knows that when you use a second pick the chances of that second round pick turning into something useful is a long shot.

Everyone should also know that if you trade that second round pick for a player you can usually get a player that is way more useful than what that second round pick would have become.

Trading a second round pick for a 4th liner is NOT a good use of a second rounder because every fool knows you can get more than that in a trade.

For example you can get a Patrick Eaves level player by trading a second rounder and this is the sort of return level a GM should be looking for when he trades a second rounder.

Obviously when Treveling trades a second round pick for Lazar, he is betting that Curtis will develop into something in that mold. If that happens Brad wins the trade.

If Lazar fails to develop into that level of player then Brad loses the Trade because he could have traded his second rounder for that level of player in the first place.

Comparing the return of a second rounder in trade to the odds of a second rounder panning out from the draft is dumb because we know that second rounders routinely fetch more value in trade than what they would produce in the draft.

I'm a little shocked that this needs so much explanation.

[handgroen]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Everyone knows that when you use a second pick the chances of that second round pick turning into something useful is a long shot.

Everyone should also know that if you trade that second round pick for a player you can usually get a player that is way more useful than what that second round pick would have become.

Trading a second round pick for a 4th liner is NOT a good use of a second rounder because every fool knows you can get more than that in a trade.

For example you can get a Patrick Eaves level player by trading a second rounder and this is the sort of return level a GM should be looking for when he trades a second rounder.

Obviously when Treveling trades a second round pick for Lazar, he is betting that Curtis will develop into something in that mold. If that happens Brad wins the trade.

If Lazar fails to develop into that level of player then Brad loses the Trade because he could have traded his second rounder for that level of player in the first place.

Comparing the return of a second rounder in trade to the odds of a second rounder panning out from the draft is dumb because we know that second rounders routinely fetch more value in trade than what they would produce in the draft.

I'm a little shocked that this needs so much explanation.

me too, but here you are on a flames message board dedicating your life to doing it.

[prarieboy]

I can't believe so much of this thread has been dedicated to discussing the merits of second round picks. Can't we just talk about the actual player.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Everyone knows that when you use a second pick the chances of that second round pick turning into something useful is a long shot.

Everyone should also know that if you trade that second round pick for a player you can usually get a player that is way more useful than what that second round pick would have become.

Trading a second round pick for a 4th liner is NOT a good use of a second rounder because every fool knows you can get more than that in a trade.

For example you can get a Patrick Eaves level player by trading a second rounder and this is the sort of return level a GM should be looking for when he trades a second rounder.

Obviously when Treveling trades a second round pick for Lazar, he is betting that Curtis will develop into something in that mold. If that happens Brad wins the trade.

If Lazar fails to develop into that level of player then Brad loses the Trade because he could have traded his second rounder for that level of player in the first place.

Comparing the return of a second rounder in trade to the odds of a second rounder panning out from the draft is dumb because we know that second rounders routinely fetch more value in trade than what they would produce in the draft.

I'm a little shocked that this needs so much explanation.

You originally said he needed to be a 20 goal scorer for the Flames to win the trade.

The facts proved you wrong.

Now you're moving the goalposts.

Your argument needs so much explanation because you don't actually have one.

[robaur]

Curtis Lazar is hands down worth more than a 2017 2nd round pick....simply just evaluating purely in terms of development stage of their career. A player that can play now is worth significantly more than a player that MAY play 3-4 years in the future.

Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, Tkachuk, Lazar.....age matters. what's to say that the guys around his age group don't give him the confidence and motivation that he needs to take the next step?

Sometimes it's all about the fit and it just clicks and a player never looks back. The pedigree of a good hockey player is there with Lazar...now its just a matter of whether he can put it together. Maybe an environment with other successful players his age might just do the trick..