Alberta Politics Thread

[Locke]

"Power is too cheap!"

Literally.

Yeah...cheap power...the horror.

[Locke]

I especially liked this part, coming FROM THE NDP!!

“That is creating a great deal of uncertainty with respect to investment … There is a need for change and we are moving forward on it.”

You want to fix investment uncertainty? Call for an election.

[Locke]

Actually this was a good line as well, which pretty much echos our sentiments.

Reynolds said the power system was working fine before the province began meddling with it.

“It’s only broken because of the programs that they (the Notley government) have introduced,” he said.

[Tron_fdc]

Break even for wind power last I checked was $0.07kWh.

I think what their plan is here is to wind down coal gen, cause price spikes due to a shortage in capacity, then subsidize renewable investment. Problem with that is they have zero control on he market price....pull off too much capacity and you're going to spike the price to the max amount in the pool (believe that's $1000/MWh). If you think people in Ontario are getting screwed just wait....at those prices homeowners.can expect power bills in the thousands of dollars.

We have a piece of land down In Ft McLeod engineered for 10MW that we have 10 years of wind data on. Might be time to dust off the investment package on that one. If you can't beat em might as well join em!

[SeeGeeWhy]

Tron, does that 7 cents include your substation and connection costs?

I agree they're looking forward to price spike fromy losing the coal supply. I also think they'll look to semi-regulate the market by paying plants for available capacity much like they do in NY/NJ where Terry Boston comes from.

[transplant99]

So it's been apparent that Notley has been using Kathleen Wynne's playbook when it comes to the whole electricity debacle.

Does Rachel the great follow her advice now?

“People have told me that they’ve had to choose between paying the electricity bill and buying food or paying rent,” Wynne said.

“That is unacceptable to me. It is unacceptable that people in Ontario are facing that choice. Our government made a mistake. It was my mistake.”

http://www.torontosun.com/2016/11/19...es-her-mistake

[CaptainCrunch]

No surprise that she's playing follow the idiot. Wynne has done more to destroy lower and mid income and vulnerable people then someone with a machine gun and a bag of hand grenades.

All while playing up negative politics whenever she's questioned about her record.

No Kathleen people are angry at you because your a woman, you can row that boat for ever. People are mad at you because you combine incompetence and and no integrity in one package.

Notley will be upping the negative messaging as the province continues to slide into the abyss due to her stupidity, why do you think she was so eager to sign up Sandra.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

Good lord. Deregulation was a debacle that cost taxpayers a whole lot of money when it was implemented. But now that the market is stabilizing, they want to disrupt it to spike prices so renewables are viable, costing us even MORE money?

Is this your opinion or are there some facts to back this up?

Show me one province in Canada that doesn't have extensive hydroelectric power, that regulation has benefited.

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by SeeGeeWhy

Tron, does that 7 cents include your substation and connection costs?

I agree they're looking forward to price spike fromy losing the coal supply. I also think they'll look to semi-regulate the market by paying plants for available capacity much like they do in NY/NJ where Terry Boston comes from.

No. That's ROI on the cap cost for the turbines.

I admit it's been almost 15 years since I looked at this, and I would HOPE technology has come along making the turbines bigger, cheaper and more efficient.

Another VERY large problem here is the infrastructure to carry electricity from the point of generation to market. Way back when there was no line capacity down south to carry electricity generated from your site (in our instance 45 mins from Ft Macleod) to the nearest substation, and sending it to market. All capacity was tied up, and you were talking millions in upgrades to bring on the infrastructure. Last I checked TransAlta was in to hurry to bring it on, seeing as they were the ones paying for it. The sites were never problem; there is more than enough wind to generate a sh*t pile of electricity. The big challenge was getting it to market.

Like I mentioned it's been a VERY long time since I looked at this. But if you phase out coal and try to bring on renewables in a market that doesn't have the infrastructure to support it, you're going to create massive price spikes in the market. The only ones who benefit there are the natural gas plants that can come on line in an hour or less and hit the peaks in price, then shut down when it regulates. Renewables can't do that (obviously). They need a consistent price through the day when the wind is blowing and the sun is shining OR a generation contract that covers their cost, inwhich case you capture no price peaks.

It's a hell of a lot more complicated than "hey let's just raise the price".

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Is this your opinion or are there some facts to back this up?

Show me one province in Canada that doesn't have extensive hydroelectric power, that regulation has benefited.

What facts would you like? I'm not sure what you're asking. Maybe you're misreading my comment, deregulation has been a terrible idea right from the get go. It's not a commodity that should be put on the open market.

Facts that deregulation cost a pile of money? That's simple.

What are you getting at with Hydro?

The only province (and state) to deregulate is Pennsylvania, California and Alberta, none of which use any (substantial) amounts of hydro. Both California and Penn have re-regulated.

As far as benefiting BC was RAPING Alberta when we deregulated. They would shut off their dams and import power to their grid from Alberta at night when there were no price spikes, then open the hydro dams up during the day and feed back into Ab when the price was spiking. For well over a year we subsidized BC....I'd call that a "benefit"...to BC of course. It took a change in legislation to stop it.

[Resolute 14]

Jason Kenney fined $5000 by the PC party for ethics breach: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...arty-1.3859981

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Jason Kenney fined $5000 by the PC party for ethics breach: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...arty-1.3859981

Probably should have doubled that... setting the price at 5K effectively sets the number of flagrant rule violations a candidate is "allowed" to make at four. IMO that's too many.

[Resolute 14]

That presumes the party wouldn't significantly up the fine on any subsequent breach, which I think is unlikely.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Probably should have doubled that... setting the price at 5K effectively sets the number of flagrant rule violations a candidate is "allowed" to make at four. IMO that's too many.

I'm sure if he breaks another rule it won't be an automatic 5k, I would see a second strike (depending on severity) as forfeiting the rest, and a third being kicked out of the race.

Plus as much as I hate to defend Kenney, he isn't totally wrong in the ambiguity of the rule. Sure, near in context should be self explanatory, but wouldn't it have just been easier for the rule to be written like "no candidate is allowed on the premises where a delegate voting station is located" or "no candidate is allowed within 500ft" or something. A little specificity goes a long way to preventing these kind of breaches.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by belsarius

I'm sure if he breaks another rule it won't be an automatic 5k, I would see a second strike (depending on severity) as forfeiting the rest, and a third being kicked out of the race.

Plus as much as I hate to defend Kenney, he isn't totally wrong in the ambiguity of the rule. Sure, near in context should be self explanatory, but wouldn't it have just been easier for the rule to be written like "no candidate is allowed on the premises where a delegate voting station is located" or "no candidate is allowed within 500ft" or something. A little specificity goes a long way to preventing these kind of breaches.

A politician with 20 years experience visiting his hospitality suite two rooms down from the voting deserves no defence.

[SeeGeeWhy]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

No. That's ROI on the cap cost for the turbines.

I admit it's been almost 15 years since I looked at this, and I would HOPE technology has come along making the turbines bigger, cheaper and more efficient.

Another VERY large problem here is the infrastructure to carry electricity from the point of generation to market. Way back when there was no line capacity down south to carry electricity generated from your site (in our instance 45 mins from Ft Macleod) to the nearest substation, and sending it to market. All capacity was tied up, and you were talking millions in upgrades to bring on the infrastructure. Last I checked TransAlta was in to hurry to bring it on, seeing as they were the ones paying for it. The sites were never problem; there is more than enough wind to generate a sh*t pile of electricity. The big challenge was getting it to market.

Like I mentioned it's been a VERY long time since I looked at this. But if you phase out coal and try to bring on renewables in a market that doesn't have the infrastructure to support it, you're going to create massive price spikes in the market. The only ones who benefit there are the natural gas plants that can come on line in an hour or less and hit the peaks in price, then shut down when it regulates. Renewables can't do that (obviously). They need a consistent price through the day when the wind is blowing and the sun is shining OR a generation contract that covers their cost, inwhich case you capture no price peaks.

It's a hell of a lot more complicated than "hey let's just raise the price".

Yep. It also helps explain why Berkshire (Buffett) came in and bought AltaLink. Infrastructure is regulated, their profits are guaranteed. With the North-South Corridor and bringing the MANDATED wind and solar capacity to market is going to be an absolute violation to the ratepayer. The penalties the Province is going to have to pay to end the coal supply contracts early will also figure into this. The transmission utilities will come out great here, the generators will still be looking at super uncertain investment decisions.

Welcome to a brave new world where electricity is a luxury good, less reliable and not necessarily any greener (RES will be backed up by inefficient gas peakers, and the physical footprint of new generation and transmission will be significant). Predictable, disgusting, and avoidable.

[transplant99]

Predictable, disgusting, and avoidable.

Not to mention. ..it doesn't and won't work to the very reason they are implementing it to begin with.

This may turn out to be the single biggest and costliest political and ideologically driven blunder in Canadian history.

[Tron_fdc]

Absolutely.

If the government says "hey let's build the infrastructure to carry the renewable gen capacity to market" guess who is going to pay? Taxpayers.

So yeah, we have to potential (as taxpayers) to be on the hook for:

- Line infrastructure upgrades
- capacity subsidies (NDP will subsidize renewables when they aren't generating, which is more than 50% of the time)
- price spikes in the market (who knows what those may be)
- PPE contract cancellation penalties

What am I missing?

Seems the NDP are looking for a new and interesting way to manipulate the market in order to make green energy more viable, all paid for by every single person in Alberta who pays an electrical bill.

Does Enmax still offer locked in rates? If the NDP goes ahead with any of this people better lock in a rate for min 24 months.

[Resolute 14]

And to do it, Notley essentially needs to declare war on the poor and the middle class. The complete opposite of what she promised.

This is what an ideological driven government gets you.

[Tron_fdc]

see below