11-02-2016, 02:00 PM
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#781
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drak
Several weeks back he was at 38 percent or something I believe. Or close to 40.
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True, but with him continuing to trend upwards this close to election day, it's certainly not a good sign.
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11-02-2016, 06:57 PM
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#783
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
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11-02-2016, 07:09 PM
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#784
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Calgary
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Gap is quickly closing and if you extrapolate to Tuesday it's going to get worse, but it should stabilize a bit. It's just been tanking the last 48 hours.
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11-03-2016, 07:00 AM
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#786
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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After the Cubs win, a Trump win is the only thing left needed to send the meteor on it's course to Earth. So I guess if you were backing the meteor over Hillary and Trump, you should vote Trump to get on with it.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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11-03-2016, 10:52 AM
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#787
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Deep South
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Trump up to 35% this morning. The model has him taking Florida, NC, and Nevada. Puts him really close to 270 now. This is turning into a nail biter all of a sudden.
EDIT: Just saw this comment on 538: when it was 3-1 Nate said the Cubs odds of winning the WS were the same as Trumps winning the election. 
__________________
Much like a sports ticker, you may feel obligated to read this
Last edited by mrkajz44; 11-03-2016 at 10:55 AM.
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11-03-2016, 10:55 AM
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#788
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Crowsnest Pass
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrkajz44
Trump up to 35% this morning. The model has him taking Florida, NC, and Nevada. Puts him really close to 270 now. This is turning into a nail biter all of a sudden.
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The 538 map today is about as good as it can get for Trump (AZ, NV, FL, OH, NC, IA, UT), and he is stalled at 244.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ex_cid=rrpromo
How does he get any further?
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11-03-2016, 10:57 AM
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#789
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NOT breaking news
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Calgary
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he still has to somehow flip PA.
__________________
Watching the Oilers defend is like watching fire engines frantically rushing to the wrong fire
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11-03-2016, 10:58 AM
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#790
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Crowsnest Pass
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GirlySports
he still has to somehow flip PA.
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That's still not enough by my math.
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11-03-2016, 11:01 AM
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#791
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The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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Obama won by 2.7% and it wasn't really considered a nail biter. Part of it is perception, Clinton seemed far ahead and the race coming back to recent historical norms seems dramatic. Part of it is the risk, if Romney defeats Obama it's unfortunate, but it's not like Romney will drive the bus off the cliff on purpose while Trump promises to set things back decades. Part of it is uncertainty and volatility, Obama at 2.7% was easier to not wet the bed over since the polls were so stable, while this election it's been much more variable, and there are a lot more undecideds plus more unusual patterns.
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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11-03-2016, 11:06 AM
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#792
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Marseilles Of The Prairies
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EDIT wrong thread bah
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm
Settle down there, Temple Grandin.
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Last edited by PsYcNeT; 11-03-2016 at 11:09 AM.
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11-03-2016, 11:09 AM
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#793
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
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He would need to flip at least two solid blue states to get anywhere close to 270. And the latest couple of polls actually show Clinton is up in Florida, so who knows what's actually going on there. The polls keep bouncing back and forth. I honestly don't think he'll take all three of Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina.
It's definitely scary right now and way too close than it should be. But I still think Clinton wins.
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11-03-2016, 11:20 AM
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#794
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NOT breaking news
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Calgary
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yeah i think the NC numbers are away out of whack, Hillary should be leading by a lot
__________________
Watching the Oilers defend is like watching fire engines frantically rushing to the wrong fire
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11-03-2016, 11:47 AM
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#796
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
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I'm sticking with the Sam Wang site over Nate Silver. There's more comfort in it for me....
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11-03-2016, 11:55 AM
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#797
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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A couple more good polls for Trump (and one awful one too). And not good news for everyone's favorite Mormon candidate
CO: Clinton 39, Trump 39, Johnson 5, Stein 4 (University of Denver)
FL: Clinton 49, Trump 45, Johnson 3, Stein 1 (FOX 13/Opinion Savvy)
NH: Trump 40, Clinton 39, Johnson 10, Stein 3 (WBUR/MassINC); Trump 48, Clinton 43, Johnson 4, Stein 1 (ARG)
UT: Trump 37, Clinton 31, McMullin 24, Johnson 4, Stein 1 (Monmouth)
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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11-03-2016, 12:03 PM
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#798
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
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Maybe that white nationalist robocall in UT did some damage. Weird to me that Trump is leading in NH with that poll.
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11-03-2016, 12:05 PM
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#799
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Lifetime Suspension
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Go Republicans!
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11-03-2016, 12:10 PM
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#800
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
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Ugh...those aren't good polls for Clinton. However without Florida, Trump is toast. The four latest polls I've read show her being up there (CNN, Quinnipiac, Opinion Savvy, SurveyMonkey).
That Colorado poll is disappointing though. Hillary has been up in pretty much every poll there going back weeks. WTF?
Last edited by direwolf; 11-03-2016 at 12:13 PM.
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