10-17-2016, 01:33 PM
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#561
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Franchise Player
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538 on the weekend had Trump climbing back over 15% in the odds...he's back down to 12% right now. That's near his low of 10.6% in August for the polls only.
The polls+ is 15.4% which is his lowest mark yet.
Trump is going to have to make serious gains to close the gender gap. He's getting slaughtered among women who make up the majority of the voting population AND have traditionally voted at a significantly higher rate than men.
Last edited by ernie; 10-17-2016 at 01:36 PM.
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10-17-2016, 01:59 PM
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#562
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: not lurking
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538 doesn't have much up about the House level, but in the closing weeks this looks to be increasingly important. I think Cook Political has the best analysis on the house races, and they have it right now as
Democrat safe: 177
Democrat likely or lean: 12
Tossup: 18
Republican likely or lean: 27
Republican Safe: 201
http://cookpolitical.com/house
(Most of the website is behind a pay-wall, but one particularly cool part that is not is this map of congressional districts. It links to demographics on each district.) http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings
It's worth noting that these projections probably move pretty slowly with how little polling we get at the district level:
To take over the house, the Dems would need to protect those likely/leans, win nearly all of the toss-ups, and then carve out another dozen or so of the Republican likely/leans.
Something I find interesting is about half of those Republican likely or lean seats, plus a third of the tossups, fall within the Northeast/Great Lakes area, which makes for a very efficient map for the Democrats to attack in terms of media market spending.
Last edited by octothorp; 10-17-2016 at 02:18 PM.
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10-17-2016, 02:00 PM
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#563
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
Well since you are Mr. All Knowing when it comes to gambling rube, what kind of parlays can you get for the election?
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Depends on the site or which books in Vegas will let you do it, but you could try to parlay Clinton with some of the bigger favourites on the UFC 205 card or some heavy moneyline NFL favourites, but even then you're likely still only looking at an even money bet at best.
For comparisons sake, the Browns were getting even or better odds to beat the Patriots last weekend on Brady's return than Trump is getting to beat Hillary.
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10-17-2016, 02:27 PM
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#564
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Franchise Player
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Some new polls today are showing that Trump is keeping the race close in critical states which is somewhat surprising.
CNN/OCR:
Nevada- Clinton 46% / Trump 44%
NC - Clinton 48% / Trump 47%
Ohio - Trump 48% / Clinton 44%
Rasmussen Reports national poll has Clinton only leading by 2% now.
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10-17-2016, 02:38 PM
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#565
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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Q has some polls out as well, not as good for Trump
OH: Trump 45, Clinton 45, Johnson 6, Stein 1
FL: Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 1
PA: Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 6, Stein 1
CO: Clinton 45, Trump 37, Johnson 10, Stein 3
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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10-17-2016, 02:41 PM
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#566
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
Q has some polls out as well, not as good for Trump
OH: Trump 45, Clinton 45, Johnson 6, Stein 1
FL: Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 1
PA: Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 6, Stein 1
CO: Clinton 45, Trump 37, Johnson 10, Stein 3
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How much of a ground game gap does Trump have? Any pollster tried to quantify that in any way? How much will it cost him at the polls?
He has an enthusiasm gap with Clinton voters being significantly more motivated to get the polls.
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10-17-2016, 02:41 PM
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#567
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The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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That Monmouth poll, 50% - 38%, ouch.
Here's an interesting writeup on that LA poll and why one guy is impacting the national polling numbers so much:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/up...-averages.html
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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10-17-2016, 02:43 PM
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#568
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: not lurking
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Keep in mind that CNN/OCR has a Trump +2 house effect, which takes a bit of the luster of those for Trump.
Still, at least a bit of good news in an otherwise brutal polling day for Trump... see A+rated Monmouth having Clinton up +12 nationally (adjusted to +11 by 538); Morning Consult and GWU having Clinton +6 and +8...
Or at the state level, Quinnipac having Trump tied in Ohio, but down 4 in Florida, 6 in Pennsylvania, and and 8 in Colorado, with each of those results then adjusted +2 to Clinton by 538).
Ohio is still the one bright spot for Trump in that it hasn't fallen totally off the map, but that's before his total falling-out that he and the state GOP had over the weekend.
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10-17-2016, 02:45 PM
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#569
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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Ohio is going to be interesting to examine if Trump wins it, but he say loses every other swing state. Not sure what it is that's keeping him ahead in Ohio.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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10-17-2016, 02:48 PM
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#570
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: not lurking
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ernie
How much of a ground game gap does Trump have? Any pollster tried to quantify that in any way? How much will it cost him at the polls?
He has an enthusiasm gap with Clinton voters being significantly more motivated to get the polls.
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538 did a recent article on number of field offices, which is usually the best possible stand-in for ground game numbers.
Trump has, in many states, turned the ground game over to the state GOP. Which seems to be an incredibly poor decision now that there's a growing rift between Trump and the GOP establishment.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...field-offices/
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10-18-2016, 10:29 AM
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#571
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
Ohio is going to be interesting to examine if Trump wins it, but he say loses every other swing state. Not sure what it is that's keeping him ahead in Ohio.
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People hoping for a return of low-skilled, high labor factories. I don't think it's much more than that.
I also don't think you are going to see any sort of return to such jobs unless the US decides to regress to a 2nd or 3rd world country (which isn't going to happen). There will always be factory success stories but the US is getting better educated and the labor market has to change to accommodate that. But as that happens people feel like they are getting left behind. I get that. It's concerning. It downright sucks for many. But moving backwards isn't the solution. But I digress and am in the wrong thread for that.....
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10-18-2016, 11:49 AM
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#572
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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Good news for Trump: He appears to be holding on to his slim lead in the well known battleground state of Texas
TX: Trump 41, Clinton 38, Johnson 4, Stein 1
http://www.uh.edu/class/hobby/texas2016/
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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10-18-2016, 11:58 AM
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#573
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
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Chuck Norris is happy.
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10-18-2016, 12:00 PM
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#574
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: wearing raccoons for boots
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Texas demographics have changed so much in recent years, not that surprising to see it close. I believe last election cycle 538 called for it to be a blue state by 2020.
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10-18-2016, 12:12 PM
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#575
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: not lurking
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
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And Clinton's started running ads there now, too (which Trump probably can't afford to match).
The top 4 weighted polls on 538 for Texas all have adjusted leads for Trump of +4 or less. Some 50-state polls from Google, Ipsos, and CVoter all show much bigger margins, but I bet Texas Democrats are super motivated right now.
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10-18-2016, 02:25 PM
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#576
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First Line Centre
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That has to be concerning for Republicans. The biggest consistent red state is almost in play.
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10-18-2016, 02:32 PM
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#577
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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The big number that has moved over the last few days is the senate forcast. 538 had after the early set of post 2nd debate polls in holding at 54%. This has increased to 74% over the last week.
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10-18-2016, 03:02 PM
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#578
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Slinger
That has to be concerning for Republicans. The biggest consistent red state is almost in play.
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If the polling is truly in the 3-4% lead range for Trump then depending on the female-male split, the better female voting rate and more motivated voters being democrats they may have a chance. I'd say if the Clinton camp is starting to run ads their internal polling is telling them it's not just almost in play but it is play if all the above reasons align.
And it's not the only Red state that is in play. The problem for trump is their really aren't a lot of blue states that are in play for him.
Last edited by ernie; 10-18-2016 at 03:06 PM.
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10-18-2016, 04:03 PM
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#579
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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There could also be a "shy Clinton" effect in places like Texas, where women are disgusted by Trump but might not voice it until election day.
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10-18-2016, 04:17 PM
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#580
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The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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Trump speech:
Trump says he's going to introduce a constitutional amendment to impose term limits; 6 years house, 12 years senate. Good luck.
Also a ban on White House and Congressional officials fund raising during business hours.
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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