The US Election Polling / Data Thread

[Senator Clay Davis]

This very well might be the greatest fake poll of all-time



http://www.wethepeopleconvention.org...lResults-1.pdf

[Looch City]

Gives itself away after the 5th word hahaha. "And more leaked emails"

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

This very well might be the greatest fake poll of all-time



http://www.wethepeopleconvention.org...lResults-1.pdf

It's likely a real poll 50% of land line owners in Ohio support trump. That seems pretty reasonable.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by GGG

It's likely a real poll 50% of land line owners in Ohio support trump. That seems pretty reasonable.

Not sure if serious....hopefully you re-read the question.

[octothorp]

I think it's pretty standard for PACs to do loads of crappy polls and then just release those that suit the narrative they want to tell. But yeah, it looks like they had to game the questions pretty hard to get their outcomes here.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Not sure if serious....hopefully you re-read the question.

What I mean is that the poll took place and the answers received are being reported accurately.

I don't find it surprising that 50% of land line owners with a push poll responded that they would vote trump.

[Senator Clay Davis]

So today either Trump is closing the gap and we're in for a very tight finish (Clinton 47, Trump 43, Johnson 5, Stein 2; ABC/WaPo), or he's going to get blown away (Clinton 48, Trump 37, Johnson 7, Stein 2; NBC/WSJ). Breakdown of the ABC/WaPo poll shows most people don't care about the groping (64%) even if most think he did it (68%). Only bad number for him in that poll is Hillary's supporters apparently have more enthusiasm (83-79%), though both are well under the 90%+ level for Obama and Romney in 2012. So at least one decent poll for him after a torrent of bad ones.

[photon]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...e-weeks-to-go/

[Senator Clay Davis]

State polls not looking so great for Trump (but hey there's Montana and Utah!)

CO: Clinton 44, Trump 39, Johnson 6, Stein 2 (Gravis)
FL: Clinton 46, Trump 42, Johnson 2, Stein 1 (Gravis)
MT: Trump 46, Clinton 36, Johnson 11, Stein 0 (Mason Dixon)
NV: Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 4 (CBS/YouGov)
UT: Trump 37, Clinton 20, McMullin 20, Johnson 7, Stein 1 (CBS/YouGov)
VA: Clinton 44, Trump 29, Johnson 11, Stein 2 (Christopher Newport University)

[GGG]

Trump doesn't have a majority in Montana.

Romney won 55-42. He is trailing Romeny by 9.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Originally Posted by GGG

Trump doesn't have a majority in Montana.

Romney won 55-42. He is trailing Romeny by 9.

He has virtually no chance of having a majority in Utah either, as there is a serious movement to write-in Evan McMullin, who just happens to be Mormon.

Trump was 3rd in the Utah primary. Utah isn't a stronghold for him at all.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Displaced Flames fan

He has virtually no chance of having a majority in Utah either, as there is a serious movement to write-in Evan McMullin, who just happens to be Mormon.

Trump was 3rd in the Utah primary. Utah isn't a stronghold for him at all.

McMullin will be on the ballot in Utah, not just a write-in.

He'll be on the ballot in 11 States: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evan_M...#Ballot_status

Utah's the only State where he might be more than a blip.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by getbak

McMullin will be on the ballot in Utah, not just a write-in.

He'll be on the ballot in 11 States: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evan_M...#Ballot_status

Utah's the only State where he might be more than a blip.

A fun article on an Evan McMullin presidency. There was a similar New Mexico Johnson case as well

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...he-presidency/

[Senator Clay Davis]

McMuffins!

UT: Trump 30, McMullin 29, Clinton 28, Johnson 5 (Rasmussen)

[Fuzz]

Wow, the classic Utah 3 way!

[troutman]

Newspaper Endorsements (Trump finally has 2):

Clinton 147
No endorsement 15
Not Trump 9
Johnson 6
Trump 2


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspa...election,_2016

AZ Republic has received death threats for their endorsement of Clinton (first Democrat ever).
YOU'RE DEAD. WATCH YOUR BACK.
WE WILL BURN YOU DOWN.
YOU SHOULD BE PUT IN FRONT OF A FIRING SQUAD AS A TRAITOR.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/opini...rump/92058964/

Trump was endorsed by St. Joseph News-Press (MO) and Santa Barbara News-Press (CA).

[Plett25]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Wow, the classic Utah 3 way!

Classic Utah 3 way?

Let me guess... a Mormon, a New York con man, and a woman resigned to her husband banging other women?

[octothorp]

So we're now at exactly half way between the first debate and the election, and Clinton's odds over that stretch look like a Tour de France elevation map on a brutal mountain day. Trump needs her to have a descent just as steep to make this into an even contest by November 8th.

Hey, look at Alaska up to a 33% chance of a Clinton victory according to the 538. (I'd expect it to still be like Idaho and Montana, but I can't help thinking that maybe concerns over Trump's coziness with Russia might play a little more there than other deep red states.)

edit: And maybe it has something to do with an awful campaign organization in the state that neglected to have any information about Trump included in the voter guide.

[rubecube]

Odds to win the election per bookies:

Clinton -601
Trump +482

[Senator Clay Davis]

Well since you are Mr. All Knowing when it comes to gambling rube, what kind of parlays can you get for the election?