[Rumour] UPD: Friedman: Thinks a deal will get done between Gaudreau and the Flames in the next week

[JerryUnderscore]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

I disagree with that. It's more likely than not that Gaudreau stays level or improves over the next 6 years. Cap inflation is more likely to be >3% than it is to be <3%.

Is there a risk that he regresses, or that the cap level stagnates? Sure. But the former seems unlikely and the latter would be unprecedented.

What most people are objecting to is the certainty with which you're speaking of Gaudreau in 7+ years. The problem is that there are just too many variables.

The cap has historically grown by 3.31%, the first three years notwithstanding, but we have no idea what it's going to do in the future. How will the Vegas team affect revenue? Will there be additional expansion? What will happen with the Loonie? Will there be another lockout? How will that affect the salary cap?

However, even if we want to disregard all of those questions and assume we're looking at a steady 3.31% cap increase each year, by 2022-23 the salary cap would be at $88.75M. Which sounds pretty good.

But, we still have variables about Gaudreau himself. What's he ceiling? Most of us assume he has room to grow still, but clearly he's not going to improve every year until he retires at the peak of his game at 45. He has a ceiling and he will have a peak year. When are they?

What about injuries? He's always stayed relatively healthy, but could that change? If he gets a serious injury and is forced to sit out for most of a season, how will that impact his development or his game longterm?

I'm not saying any of these are likely. In fact an increased cap and a healthy better Gaudreau are probably the most probable outcomes, but there's just too much uncertainty 7 years from now for us to talk about him definitely being a $9+M player.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by JerryUnderscore

What most people are objecting to is the certainty with which you're speaking of Gaudreau in 7+ years. The problem is that there are just too many variables.

The cap has historically grown by 3.31%, the first three years notwithstanding, but we have no idea what it's going to do in the future. How will the Vegas team affect revenue? Will there be additional expansion? What will happen with the Loonie? Will there be another lockout? How will that affect the salary cap?

However, even if we want to disregard all of those questions and assume we're looking at a steady 3.31% cap increase each year, by 2022-23 the salary cap would be at $88.75M. Which sounds pretty good.

But, we still have variables about Gaudreau himself. What's he ceiling? Most of us assume he has room to grow still, but clearly he's not going to improve every year until he retires at the peak of his game at 45. He has a ceiling and he will have a peak year. When are they?

What about injuries? He's always stayed relatively healthy, but could that change? If he gets a serious injury and is forced to sit out for most of a season, how will that impact his development or his game longterm?

I'm not saying any of these are likely. In fact an increased cap and a healthy better Gaudreau are probably the most probable outcomes, but there's just too much uncertainty 7 years from now for us to talk about him definitely being a $9+M player.

I totally agree, which is why I'm talking in likelihoods (did I say anything to make you think I was certain about an outcome 7 years down the road?)

We both agree it's more likely he's a 9.9M+ player in 7 years than not, which is why I'd personally prefer an 8 year deal.

[Ryan Coke]

Just because, and yes I know it's stupid of me to respond to it, but I never said he is unlikely to be worth that. He/she said that.

What I said was it was unlikely to be a great deal, and maybe he'd be worth it, maybe he wouldn't. Lots of variables, but not a smoking deal for the extra 2 years.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Ryan Coke

Just because, and yes I know it's stupid of me to respond to it, but I never said he is unlikely to be worth that. He/she said that.

What I said was it was unlikely to be a great deal, and maybe he'd be worth it, maybe he wouldn't. Lots of variables, but not a smoking deal for the extra 2 years.

You're right, sorry about that RC. I misinterpreted what you said. My fault - I'm gonna go ahead and blame it on baby insomnia.

You may continue ignoring me.

[JerryUnderscore]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

I totally agree, which is why I'm talking in likelihoods (did I say anything to make you think I was certain about an outcome 7 years down the road?)

We both agree it's more likely he's a 9.9M+ player in 7 years than not, which is why I'd personally prefer an 8 year deal.

Yes, I'm all about an 8 year deal compared to a 7, but I'm not sure I'm ready to say I believe he will be a $9.9M+ player. I have no idea where he will be in 7 years. There are just too many variables.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by JerryUnderscore

Yes, I'm all about an 8 year deal compared to a 7, but I'm not sure I'm ready to say I believe he will be a $9.9M+ player. I have no idea where he will be in 7 years. There are just too many variables.

I'm just saying I'd sooner believe he'll be worth that than believe he won't be. If I was making a bet, I'd take the over. I mean Lucic and a bunch of other average 1st line players just signed deals worth ~8% of the cap. That 6M would likely equate to ~7.4M in 7 years.

I have to think it's more likely that Johnny puts up 70-105 point/pace seasons over the next 6 years. That would put him in Kane territory prior to his deal, and favorable to Benn and Stamkos. It would be a fairly strong case for a huge UFA deal.

In 7 years, I wouldn't be surprised if he was worth closer to 11.5 -12.5M in 2016 cap dollars. That's where he'd be if he just keeps pace with last year's production.

[Hockeyguy15]

The good news is everyone has spent so much time debating how much money is a "fair deal" that once the actual contract is signed there will be nothing to talk about since it was already covered.....Right?...Guys?

[saillias]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

The good news is everyone has spent so much time debating how much money is a "fair deal" that once the actual contract is signed there will be nothing to talk about since it was already covered.....Right?...Guys?

I have it on good authority that Ryan O'Reilly plans to visit a Tim Horton's to meet Jay Feaster for coffee, but little does he know that Jankowski is there waiting for them. The ensuing destruction and calamity will keep CP busy for years.

But seriously, there's shoes waiting to drop (is that the idiom?) from this. A contract for Nak or Russell. Probably the Kucherov contract will get done soon after as well.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

Who do you guys prefer Nakladal or Russell?

I enjoyed watching Russ sometimes but I dont want him back tbh. I'd be ok if he did come back though as long as he can stop jockying, collapsing to the net and trying to block shots. He is one of the most annoying d-men ive ever watched in that regard. He skates backwards as much as he can and tries to screen the goalie

[Redlan]

[Otto-matic]

Originally Posted by Crumpy-Gunt

Who do you guys prefer Nakladal or Russell?

I enjoyed watching Russ sometimes but I dont want him back tbh. I'd be ok if he did come back though as long as he can stop jockying, collapsing to the net and trying to block shots. He is one of the most annoying d-men ive ever watched in that regard. He skates backwards as much as he can and tries to screen the goalie

Neither TBH,

We have Kulak who is making some good strides, Wotherspoon looked good in my limited viewings. I'd rather see one of the kids brought back over Nak or Russell IMO.

[FlamesAddiction]

Gaudreau's home vs. road production doesn't bother me. A lot of players produce better with the home advantage, but Gaudreau has also learned and adapted at ever level. I have no doubt that he will be more productive on the road next season.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Crumpy-Gunt

Who do you guys prefer Nakladal or Russell?

I enjoyed watching Russ sometimes but I dont want him back tbh. I'd be ok if he did come back though as long as he can stop jockying, collapsing to the net and trying to block shots. He is one of the most annoying d-men ive ever watched in that regard. He skates backwards as much as he can and tries to screen the goalie

Russell no question.

[saillias]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Gaudreau's home vs. road production doesn't bother me. A lot of players produce better with the home advantage, but Gaudreau has also learned and adapted at ever level. I have no doubt that he will be more productive on the road next season.

Me neither, it's a non-issue. If Gaudreau somehow never produces on the road and remains what he is at home (an unprecedented oddity), he would still be an amazing player just from his contributions in those 41 games.

People talk about consistency but there's no such thing as a player who scores a goal or an assist every other game consistently and never hits a rut or a hot streak. Every player is streaky.

[BigFlameDog]

Originally Posted by Crumpy-Gunt

I find it funny that he's getting such a huge response out of people. Its amusing. Not only how easily annoyed people can get at someones ridiculous/contrarian opinion on an online hockey forum - but how people will challenge him, respond to him and quote him over and over again as if they cant see how he's playing this thread. People love piling on and feeding trolls around here. Or maybe we just have a lot of over 35 users on here who dont quite know how to internet like those closer in age to millennials do. Perhaps people who havent been on places like reddit/youtube and arent familiar with trolls and how to deal with them.

HINT: they love attention.

I've done my fair share of trolling on here (off topic forum) and I'm convinced older users have no troll-ometer.

As an older user I am personally and forever offended by your post.....

(I put him on ignore a week ago, really just come here to see who is still dance fighting with him)

[Crumpy-Gunt]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Gaudreau's home vs. road production doesn't bother me. A lot of players produce better with the home advantage, but Gaudreau has also learned and adapted at ever level. I have no doubt that he will be more productive on the road next season.

It does not bother me either. The Flames for the last few years have been the type of team to score 3-4-5 goals at home then get shut out or only manage 1 goal on the road. It isnt a Johnny thing its a Flames only being good at home thing. I remember Hartley talking about our home vs away form on numerous occasions. As a team we've been better offensively and just overall at the dome since hes been here.

LOL sorry bigflamedog! ;P

[442scotty]

Blah blah blah

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by saillias

Me neither, it's a non-issue. If Gaudreau somehow never produces on the road and remains what he is at home (an unprecedented oddity), he would still be an amazing player just from his contributions in those 41 games.

1st in home scoring 5v5
Worse than 300th in away scoring 5v5

It's crazy different, and both rankings are so far apart that they're probably unsustainable. He'll likely do worse at home and better on the road in the future. I wouldn't call either situation "amazing."

That said, if someone believe that the Flames aren't a playoff team without Gaudreau, then him basically disappearing for every away game would screw the team.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Gaudreau's home vs. road production doesn't bother me. A lot of players produce better with the home advantage, but Gaudreau has also learned and adapted at ever level. I have no doubt that he will be more productive on the road next season.

Originally Posted by saillias

Me neither, it's a non-issue. If Gaudreau somehow never produces on the road and remains what he is at home (an unprecedented oddity), he would still be an amazing player just from his contributions in those 41 games.

People talk about consistency but there's no such thing as a player who scores a goal or an assist every other game consistently and never hits a rut or a hot streak. Every player is streaky.

A big part of improving Gaudreau's away numbers will be the success of the Bennett-Brouwer combination which can possibly take the heat off of the top line and maybe attract some matchups themselves on the road.

[Rhettzky]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

I'm just saying I'd sooner believe he'll be worth that than believe he won't be. If I was making a bet, I'd take the over. I mean Lucic and a bunch of other average 1st line players just signed deals worth ~8% of the cap. That 6M would likely equate to ~7.4M in 7 years.

I have to think it's more likely that Johnny puts up 70-105 point/pace seasons over the next 6 years. That would put him in Kane territory prior to his deal, and favorable to Benn and Stamkos. It would be a fairly strong case for a huge UFA deal.

In 7 years, I wouldn't be surprised if he was worth closer to 11.5 -12.5M in 2016 cap dollars. That's where he'd be if he just keeps pace with last year's production.

You seem to keep getting confused about the difference between UFA contracts and RFA contracts again, how much Lucic makes has nothing to do with this contract in any way.

Also, Patrick Kane didn't sign his 10.5 Million dollar deal until he had played in the NHL for 8 years (would be 9 if not for the lockout) and had consistently proven to be a PPG player in the regular season and in over 120 playoff games as well. He had also won a Calder trophy, 3 Stanley Cups, a Conn Smyth, a Hart Trophy, and an Art Ross. And he had done all before the age of 26.

And yes, Johnny could accomplish all of that in the next 7 years and as a Flames fan that would be incredible to witness. However, the GM and owners can't pay players based on hopes and dreams.