The 2016 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[JayP]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I wasn't able to find those stats when I made my first post, but I've got them now.

First and Second - 0 out: 60.53%
Second and Third - 1 out: 66.22%

So you are only increasing your chances of scoring in the inning by 6% - not really that much. And this assumes the bunt is successful. First and second with one out drops the scoring percentage to 40.70%.

Small ball is a concept pumped up by the media during the stretch run and the postseason. No one talks about playing good small ball in April. The benefits are not really there as the numbers show.

It's all because the talking heads now are ex ball players from the 80s who just want to see the game being played the way it was when they played. All the data says that it's idiotic (including in the playoffs) and that's why teams are shying away from it. I'll take raw data over some aging ball player any day.

[Jason14h]

There's a reason no one plays small ball or steals anymore . It's bad strategy.

[The Big Chill]

I just think that there are a few moments throughout a season where it can be beneficial, and thus it is important that we can execute. I'm not saying give outs away early in a game. However, bottom of the ninth in a tied game seven and I'll take the 6% increase every time. Of course it depends on where we are in the lineup too, but the idea remains the same.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

I just think that there are a few moments throughout a season where it can be beneficial, and thus it is important that we can execute. I'm not saying give outs away early in a game. However, bottom of the ninth in a tied game seven and I'll take the 6% increase every time. Of course it depends on where we are in the lineup too, but the idea remains the same.

But that's one of the major rubs with it too. All this talk about percentages and we are assuming all bunts are successful. We have to account for unsuccessful ones too.

The best I could find was a bleacher report article that had sac bunts being successful at a 75% clip. Using the numbers from above, attempting to bunt actually lowers you percentage for runners scoring in an inning:

Successful bunt: 6% increase x 75% = 4.5% EV
Unsuccessful bunt: 20% decrease x 25% = -5.0% EV
Net EV: -0.5%

Bottom line, bunting is bad, and probably worse for the Jays because we are using league average type numbers and surely they are worse than average when it comes to things like bunting.

Okay, enough small ball rage from me - I think what set me off was listening to a caller after the Jays game yesterday that suggested Edwin's approach at the plate late in the game should have been more like Pillar's.

Also, work is no fun right now, and looking up and computing these percentages are fun.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

I don't want to see the Jays play small ball every game or every situation......at all.

But they are in a funk and I still think having Travis move the guys over to 2nd and 3rd with 1 out and the meat of the order up was the right call. You could feel the air let out of the balloon after they got nothing there. Even if it's a JD sac fly and they only get 1 run at least it would be something. When you're hitting like garbage maybe a little small ball isn't the worst thing in the world.

[ben voyonsdonc]

If Josh Thole is at the plate and there is anyone at first or second, I'd like him to bunt. Of course if there are two outs maybe not so much but even then, the likelihood of him doing something productive is pretty low so bunting wouldn't necessarily be much worse.

[nik-]

I like small ball

[St. Pats]

Don't look at the standings! I just did and it can quickly get depressing. Way too many teams closing in on the Jays.

[troutman]

Seems to me small ball makes more sense in October when the air is cooler, and you are facing playoff aces.

Swing for the fences in the summer.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

I don't want to see the Jays play small ball every game or every situation......at all.

But they are in a funk and I still think having Travis move the guys over to 2nd and 3rd with 1 out and the meat of the order up was the right call. You could feel the air let out of the balloon after they got nothing there. Even if it's a JD sac fly and they only get 1 run at least it would be something. When you're hitting like garbage maybe a little small ball isn't the worst thing in the world.

These are my thoughts too. I'm not a big small buy guy and 85% of the time I don't agree using it but I think sometimes when you are slumping like the Jays are you have to mix it up. I think Travis should have been bunting there.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by 868904

You don't have to play "small ball" all the time, but you need to be able to do it when it matters, like in a tight game or say when your season is on the line (Game 6 ALCS last year).

They should have been practicising some small ball since the pre-season. It doesn't mean you have to change your team philosophy. It's about adapting and evolving. The fact that they haven't just shows how stubborn Gibbons is.

I don't know how many times this year, the Jays have been in a tight game with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, and they fail to get the guy home. It's ridiculous. It doesn't have to be black or white or long ball or small ball. You just have to be able to play anyway the game dictates if you want to be a champion.

Now it's too late, if the bats are cold in September and October, this team is going no where. Won't matter how good the pitching is.

How would small ball have helped then? Didn't the Jays steal 2 bags that inning anyway? Are you suggesting they should have tried to bunt home Pompey because that would have been an aboslutly awful strategy if so.

There are times for sure and I think the other night Travis should have been bunting to try and get 2nd and 3rd with 1 out but the opporutnities are few and far between. I agree they ned to be able to adapt but IMO the answer is not to increasing their bunting. The answer is they need to get better at taking certain pitches and driving it to all parts of the field to move runners. Bunting is not the answer nor would it make much of a different to the Jays IMO.

[Cappy]

One thing that the Jays are missing that could help move runners: left-handed batters.

The biggest weakness on this team isn't that they can'y bunt a runner over, its that there are few lefties who can naturally pull the ball between 1st and 2nd when the gap is open.

Remember Frank Catalanotto? perfect guy for that situation.

[Cowboy89]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb...ely-go-market/

Shapiro says all Jays free agents are likely to go to market. Bautista, Encarnacion, Saunders, Dickey.

Terrible timing and pretty much confirms TAO view, that Rogers is up to Rogers things and the poor people who re-upped their Blue Jays Season tickets for next year will have the privilege of watching 4th place baseball for higher prices.

[JiriHrdina]

Of that group though - there is only one player that they should try to re-sign - EE.
Does anyone think the 3 others should be brought back?
This seems like generally a sound decision.
Timing is odd though for sure.
I guess the question is what is the plan to replace some of those bats.

[Caged Great]

The Jays apparently are going to let all their free agents walk.

I approve of that due to the fact that their only needs as a team are a lefty reliever or two, a backup catcher, and to replace Jose + Edwin. With nearly 45 million coming off the books from those two + Dickey, if they just reinvest those funds into two quality bats, that wouldn't be bad. Trumbo + Bruce wouldn't hurt. Their ages would help to set the team up for another few years.

[868904]

Originally Posted by cross16

How would small ball have helped then? Didn't the Jays steal 2 bags that inning anyway? Are you suggesting they should have tried to bunt home Pompey because that would have been an aboslutly awful strategy if so.

There are times for sure and I think the other night Travis should have been bunting to try and get 2nd and 3rd with 1 out but the opporutnities are few and far between. I agree they ned to be able to adapt but IMO the answer is not to increasing their bunting. The answer is they need to get better at taking certain pitches and driving it to all parts of the field to move runners. Bunting is not the answer nor would it make much of a different to the Jays IMO.

Yes that is exactly what I am suggesting. Pompey just stole two bases. He was pumped. There is no doubt in my mind that he would have scored on a decently executed bunt and the game would have been tied.

You do whatever you can to tie that game and go from there, maybe hope the next time Bautista comes around, he continues his epic game. Revere and Navarro (I think) were the two batters and neither of them came close to making contact on their swings. They were overmatched by an elite closer and a bunt was probably their best chance of making contact and getting Pompey home.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Of that group though - there is only one player that they should try to re-sign - EE.
Does anyone think the 3 others should be brought back?

If you're not bringing back Joey Bats than who better than Saunders is going to be available to round out the outfield? Carrara is not a everyday player, Pompey has done nothing yet to suggest he can make the jump, and the pending free agent list doesn't look promising.

[Caged Great]

I'm personally a bit leery of Edwin due to his body type. Players with his frame do tend to break down after they hit 34 and we have already seen his dealing with injuries the past couple seasons. He'll likely get a 5/125 contract from the Red Sox. While it sucks, it's better than having to worry about him falling apart in year 2 or 3. Signing Trumbo to the same contract will take him to his age 36 season.

Getting players that are closer in age to Donaldson also makes more sense in my opinion.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

If you're not bringing back Joey Bats than who better than Saunders is going to be available to round out the outfield? Carrara is not a everyday player, Pompey has done nothing yet to suggest he can make the jump, and the pending free agent list doesn't look promising.

Your outfield is Upton-Pilllar and a player to be acquired.
That's how I see it.
Saunders should be considered a candidate - but isn't a guy that you can overpay based on this year alone.
For the right price he should be considered, but would prefer they case a wider net and try to upgrade.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

If you're not bringing back Joey Bats than who better than Saunders is going to be available to round out the outfield? Carrara is not a everyday player, Pompey has done nothing yet to suggest he can make the jump, and the pending free agent list doesn't look promising.

Jay Bruce, Josh Reddick, Mark Trumbo are all options that are viable. Plus Pompey should be ready by now.