The 2016 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[St. Pats]

This is turning into a real meltdown. No spark at all. Going down without a fight.

[savemedrzaius]

They had two horrible series and are still only one game back. I'm not worried yet but this next series will show us if they are for real.

[jayswin]

Please don't sputter out of the last season of championship hope.

[Dion]

The fact that the Jays are slumping at this time of year makes it even harder to bear. You could see the frustartion in their body languages building as the losses grew. However some home cooking and cheering from the greatest fans in baseball will remedy that situation. Or should I say I hope so.

There is too much pride and talent on this team for them to falter down the stretch. We are going to see what this team is really made of and surprise the baseball world with a end of season and long playoff run.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by Dion

The fact that the Jays are slumping at this time of year makes it even harder to bear. You could see the frustartion in their body languages building as the losses grew. However some home cooking and cheering from the greatest fans in baseball will remedy that situation. Or should I say I hope so.

There is too much pride and talent on this team for them to falter down the stretch. We are going to see what this team is really made of and surprise the baseball world with a end of season and long playoff run.

I get that being calm and level-headed is great and all, as well as having faith. Only problem is that the the other AL teams we are battling with for the Division crown are too close, and we don't have any breathing room for losing anymore ground.

There's only one month left in the season and things are way too close to feel we've got this right now. The Division is well and truly up for grabs. It really is nail biting time now.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Karl

I get that being calm and level-headed is great and all, as well as having faith. Only problem is that the the other AL teams we are battling with for the Division crown are too close, and we don't have any breathing room for losing anymore ground.

There's only one month left in the season and things are way too close to feel we've got this right now. The Division is well and truly up for grabs. It really is nail biting time now.

Fate will be in our hands as we have the Red Sox for 3 games this weekend, 4 against the Yanks and 3 against the Orioles to finish the season, all at home. The way we play at home I would think gives us the upper hand. At worst we'll end up with a wildcard spot.

[calculoso]

If there is a time to slump, I'd rather it be now than a month from now...

That said, this slump has gone on long enough. Time to kick it back in gear!

[TheAlpineOracle]

This slump has been longer than a lot of people are realizing. despite their record in August, the Jays were not looking good. They were winning low scoring games against mediocre opponents from out of the division. You aren't going to keep AL East teams to 1 0r 2 runs a game as we are seeing. The Jays also have to go to Seattle for 3. I can't remember a time I've went to Seattle in the past 5 years where the Jays have won a series there. A big field that they can't hit as many home runs at.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Dion

Fate will be in our hands as we have the Red Sox for 3 games this weekend, 4 against the Yanks and 3 against the Orioles to finish the season, all at home. The way we play at home I would think gives us the upper hand. At worst we'll end up with a wildcard spot.

Getting swept by the Yankees does suck, but its very true that the fate of the season will ride on the series between the Jays and Boston/Baltimore.

Quite honestly, if there was a series or two to get beat up in, having those against the Rays and Yankees is not that bad. Dropping 3 to Boston though, that would be a disaster.

I'm still confident that the Jays will win the division, though I admit it is closer than I thought it would be.

And please stop asking the Jays to play small ball. They simply cannot do it. Have you seen a few of them try to bunt? You are giving away outs and maybe not even moving runners. The Jays are a team that will put up crooked numbers in a few innings to win - trying to change that identity is just foolish at this point.

[Jiggy_12]

Hopefully a home series with the Sox is what the Jays need to kick in to gear. That crowd is going to give them a playoff atmosphere. This should be fun.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

And please stop asking the Jays to play small ball. They simply cannot do it. Have you seen a few of them try to bunt? You are giving away outs and maybe not even moving runners. The Jays are a team that will put up crooked numbers in a few innings to win - trying to change that identity is just foolish at this point.

Agreed. Not only do I think you have to go down with what got you there but the Jays are just not build to be a small ball team. I don't think it makes sense to be something that you are not. I'm not always a Gibby fan but I think he takes too much flak for not trying more small ball, he knows that isn't his club.

[Jiggy_12]

Good read for those feeling the stress!

http://bluejaysnation.com/2016/9/8/f...efully-october

[868904]

Originally Posted by cross16

Agreed. Not only do I think you have to go down with what got you there but the Jays are just not build to be a small ball team. I don't think it makes sense to be something that you are not. I'm not always a Gibby fan but I think he takes too much flak for not trying more small ball, he knows that isn't his club.

You don't have to play "small ball" all the time, but you need to be able to do it when it matters, like in a tight game or say when your season is on the line (Game 6 ALCS last year).

They should have been practicising some small ball since the pre-season. It doesn't mean you have to change your team philosophy. It's about adapting and evolving. The fact that they haven't just shows how stubborn Gibbons is.

I don't know how many times this year, the Jays have been in a tight game with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, and they fail to get the guy home. It's ridiculous. It doesn't have to be black or white or long ball or small ball. You just have to be able to play anyway the game dictates if you want to be a champion.

Now it's too late, if the bats are cold in September and October, this team is going no where. Won't matter how good the pitching is.

[Parallex]

Small ball is dumb.

You have 27 outs in a game those are precious commodities. Wasting them on sac bunts and ill-advised running is just bad strategy.

[sketchyt]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Small ball is dumb.

You have 27 outs in a game those are precious commodities. Wasting them on sac bunts and ill-advised running is just bad strategy.

I generally agree especially with the bats that the Jays have, but when you're slumping and get runners on 1st and 2nd early in a scoreless game with zero outs... maybe taking a couple outs and getting a one-run lead instead of hitting into a DP isn't a bad thing.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Small ball is dumb.

You have 27 outs in a game those are precious commodities. Wasting them on sac bunts and ill-advised running is just bad strategy.

Late game situational only.

[mrkajz44]

Even if it is late game, small ball still makes no sense.

Say you have runners on first and second with no one out. Your expected runs scored for that inning is about 1.37. Now bunt those players over, so you have runners on second and third with one out. Your run expectation has now dropped to 1.35. In addition to that, this assumes the bunt actually works - if it fails, your run expectation drops to 0.91.

So best case scenario with small ball is lowering your run expectation a little bit, and worst case causes a massive drop off in the amount of runs you'll score per inning. Always a bad strategy.

Edit: Updated expected runs for more recent stats

[The Big Chill]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Even if it is late game, small ball still makes no sense.

Say you have runners on first and second with no one out. Your expected runs scored for that inning is about 1.37. Now bunt those players over, so you have runners on second and third with one out. Your run expectation has now dropped to 1.35. In addition to that, this assumes the bunt actually works - if it fails, your run expectation drops to 0.91.

So best case scenario with small ball is lowering your run expectation a little bit, and worst case causes a massive drop off in the amount of runs you'll score per inning. Always a bad strategy.

Edit: Updated expected runs for more recent stats

The expected runs are lower for small ball, but I'd bet that small ball scores in more innings total (assuming the bunt is successful). As in, not playing small ball gives a greater chance of a big inning, but also a greater chance of scoring zero in an inning. Small ball is important to be able to execute in situations where scoring a single run is essential.

I don't want to see us playing small ball often, but we need to be able to do it when we need to score a run to keep our season alive.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

The expected runs are lower for small ball, but I'd bet that small ball scores in more innings total (assuming the bunt is successful). As in, not playing small ball gives a greater chance of a big inning, but also a greater chance of scoring zero in an inning. Small ball is important to be able to execute in situations where scoring a single run is essential.

I don't want to see us playing small ball often, but we need to be able to do it when we need to score a run to keep our season alive.

I wasn't able to find those stats when I made my first post, but I've got them now.

First and Second - 0 out: 60.53%
Second and Third - 1 out: 66.22%

So you are only increasing your chances of scoring in the inning by 6% - not really that much. And this assumes the bunt is successful. First and second with one out drops the scoring percentage to 40.70%.

Small ball is a concept pumped up by the media during the stretch run and the postseason. No one talks about playing good small ball in April. The benefits are not really there as the numbers show.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by sketchyt

I generally agree especially with the bats that the Jays have, but when you're slumping and get runners on 1st and 2nd early in a scoreless game with zero outs... maybe taking a couple outs and getting a one-run lead instead of hitting into a DP isn't a bad thing.

There is no guarantee small ball scores those runs though. That's the most frustrating thing about the people that want to see more bunts. They act like anytime you bunt a guy over, he automatically scores. Even with a runner on third and 1 out, you still need the right pitch at the right time to be able to lift a ball and hit a sac fly. If a pitcher paints the bottom of the zone then all you can do is hit it hard on the ground.

Then you look at last night. If Travis bunts there, there's still a chance it's not a good one and then you wasted an out. If it's a good bunt, Donaldson still grounded out meekly next which likely gets the runner thrown out at home with the infield in. So now you end up with a runner on third and two outs - exactly where the Jays were without bunting.

If you're struggling to score runs, I never understood how small ball is the answer. Great, you might squeeze across an extra run early in the game. But if you're making a lot of outs why are you giving them away? You can't expect to win a game 1-0 so scoring first really is almost irrelevant.