Flames stars Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau stick together - Page 27 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

MrMastodonFarm · 08-23-2016, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

http://www.sportsnet.ca/960/the-big-...hnny-gaudreau/
At like 17:12 . . . Kerr thinks possibly north of 8MM, maybe 9MM . . . .

Fingers crossed he's off by a million . . .

"What are we talking.. north of eight... around nine? I don't know!"
Pure spit-balling.

Gaudreauvertime · 08-23-2016, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

"What are we talking.. north of eight... around nine? I don't know!"
Pure spit-balling.

Of course he is, that's all anyone can do at this point. I'm just sharing the perspective as I just heard it on the archives and thought it was relevant.

Toonage · 08-23-2016, 11:33 AM

Nm

PepsiFree · 08-23-2016, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

And even then, if Gaudreau has already scored at an 81 point pace, he would only need to increase that pace by 23% to reach 100.

So really, my expectations are ~0-10+% improvement for Monahan vs ~10-23% improvement for Gaudreau, which I think is reasonable based on how steep Gaudreau's development curve has been to this point in his career.

Obviously I could be very wrong but that's my opinion and the reasoning behind it.

The reason I think you're wrong is because of what you're really saying.

Could Gaudreau hit 90-100 a couple times? Maybe.
Consistently?

If he did, he would be better than every player but Ovechkin, Malkin, and Crosby. He has shown legitimately nothing to suggest he's at that level. Even if he was as good as Patrick Kane (he hasn't even shown that, yet), that's still only averaging out at 82-85 points per season.

It's just crazy to predict a 6% drop or 9% maximum gain in PPG for Monahan while predicting a staggering 11% minimum gain for Gaudreau, considering he's almost at a PPG right now (and the guys who would be his comparables were all well over a PPG during their first two seasons).

It's more likely Gaudreau is an 84-90 point guy in his prime and Monahan a 65-70 point guy. Plus Monahan plays a more important role and is a 2-way guy, so I'm not seeing much of a difference in overall value between the two.

heep223 · 08-23-2016, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

I think really highly of Sean and have high hopes that he'll be a true 2 way number 1 center that can compete and win against the other top centers in the West.

He already is this...

GGG · 08-23-2016, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I would be shocked if Gaudreau's extension is anywhere near $8 m. Kerr is spit-balling here, and I think he is WAY off.

That would be Gaudreau camp leaks if it has a source. If he achieves is potential 8 x 9mil would be fair value but you need to factor in risk money. I think his true market value in the last few years of the contract is too variable to get a 7 to 8 year deal done at an attractive dollar given the risk.

I suspect 6 years at just under 7 to be where in finishes up.

Gaudreauvertime · 08-23-2016, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

The reason I think you're wrong is because of what you're really saying.

Could Gaudreau hit 90-100 a couple times? Maybe.
Consistently?

If he did, he would be better than every player but Ovechkin, Malkin, and Crosby. He has shown legitimately nothing to suggest he's at that level. Even if he was as good as Patrick Kane (he hasn't even shown that, yet), that's still only averaging out at 82-85 points per season.

It's just crazy to predict a 6% drop or 9% maximum gain in PPG for Monahan while predicting a staggering 11% minimum gain for Gaudreau, considering he's almost at a PPG right now (and the guys who would be his comparables were all well over a PPG during their first two seasons).

It's more likely Gaudreau is an 84-90 point guy in his prime and Monahan a 65-70 point guy. Plus Monahan plays a more important role and is a 2-way guy, so I'm not seeing much of a difference in overall value between the two.

Agree to disagree. But if you account for age and experience, Johnny's past season is actually better than Kane was when he was 22/23. I see nothing stopping him from becoming that caliber of player.

Gaudreauvertime · 08-23-2016, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by heep223

He already is this...

I don't consider him a strong 2 way player at this point. For his age, yea he's responsible defensively, but I still think he has a ways to go in that department, and I fully expect him to as he continues to mature and improves his foot speed.

PepsiFree · 08-23-2016, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

Agree to disagree. But if you account for age and experience, Johnny's past season is actually better than Kane was when he was 22/23. I see nothing stopping him from becoming that caliber of player.

Keep in mind, Kane has a career PPG of 1.008

Your prediction of 90-100 (1.09-1.22 PPG) puts him past that, and potentially past Ovechkin (1.15 PPG) and Malkin (1.18 PPG).

Maybe you should decide just how good you think Gaudreau is really going to be. If he's going to become the caliber of Kane, we're looking at an 82-85 point guy, not a 90-100 point guy.

Kane has only produced at an over 90 point pace twice in 9 years.

All this said, I think he will be as good as Kane, and I think that's FANTASTIC. But he hasn't earned that money yet.

TheScorpion · 08-23-2016, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

I don't consider him a strong 2 way player at this point. For his age, yea he's responsible defensively, but I still think he has a ways to go in that department, and I fully expect him to as he continues to mature and improves his foot speed.

So has he plateaued or is he still improving?

Ryan Coke · 08-23-2016, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

So has he plateaued or is he still improving?

Those can be mutually exclusive, which is what he's saying.

He did plateau last year, but he still will hopefully continue to improve.

Gaudreauover is still way too generous with team money that could potentially cripple signing other players and make this team a championship one, which I don't understand.

Frequitude · 08-23-2016, 12:27 PM

Gaudreauvertime, so to summarize what you're saying your expectation for Gaudreau is that he will be a Crosby/Ovechkin/Malkin caliber of player and the standard deviation of that expectation is close to zero?

CroFlames · 08-23-2016, 12:35 PM

I just don't understand why he thinks Johnny will improve dramatically, but Monahan only minimally.

What's stopping Monahan from being an 80 point guy? Why is Johnny basically a shoe-in for 90+?

Toonage · 08-23-2016, 12:36 PM

Probably thinks Johnny isn't done growing. Physically, I mean.

calgaryblood · 08-23-2016, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by heep223

He already is this...

I don't think he is either. Big Monahan fan but I don't think this is what you're going to get with Monahan in regards to his 2 way game. There is lots of room for improvement in this area.

Strange Brew · 08-23-2016, 12:46 PM

Its interesting that Monahan's point production increased more in his 2nd year than Johnny's did. Maybe because Johnny has only had one year to show improvement that some assume the improvement will continue at that pace forever?

I don't think Monahan will ever lead the league in scoring, whereas I suppose Johnny could, but I think Monahan is the one with the longest runway in terms of overall game.

Vinny01 · 08-23-2016, 12:48 PM

I dont disagree that Johnny is going to get much better. We saw him improve year over year for the last 5 years. Personally I see his ceiling as generational winger that will be a top player in the league for a decade. I disagree with the notion that Monahan has peaked as I see him scoring 40 goals and possibly 80pts at his peak.

With Johnny being the face of the franchise and being such an exciting player he deserves to be paid the premium. He needs to give up those UFA years and I'm my opinion if he wants more than Monahan he needs to committ at least 7 years and if he wants north of $7M then he has to max out the term

jaikorven · 08-23-2016, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calgaryblood

I don't think he is either. Big Monahan fan but I don't think this is what you're going to get with Monahan in regards to his 2 way game. There is lots of room for improvement in this area.

I agree that he should and likely will improve, but he is already a top tier 2 way center imo, which is what was being partly debated. Some say he is not a top tier 2 way center yet.

Gaudreauvertime · 08-23-2016, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Gaudreauvertime, so to summarize what you're saying your expectation for Gaudreau is that he will be a Crosby/Ovechkin/Malkin caliber of player and the standard deviation of that expectation is close to zero?

I think he will be in the tier just below them (at their prime). As of today, I already think he is every bit as good as Ovechkin and Malkin.

That said, my expected range is just that, expected. There is no implication on standard deviation.

Gaudreauvertime · 08-23-2016, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I just don't understand why he thinks Johnny will improve dramatically, but Monahan only minimally.

What's stopping Monahan from being an 80 point guy? Why is Johnny basically a shoe-in for 90+?

Nothing is stopping Monahan from doing anything, its merely my opinion that, based on the development curves they have shown, Gaudreau still has more runway left in terms of offensive production.

I could be dead wrong. But its just an opinion, and I've provided my reasoning on it several times.