Pribyl aiming to crack Flames lineup

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Based on the fact that Burke said Bollig needs to play more, here's how I see it:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Colborne
Frolik - Backlund - Pribyl
Bouma - Bennett - Ferland
Jooris - Stajan - Bollig


So a top 5 pick again?

If the Flames top three right wingers consist of those names it will be lottery time again next fall.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

They may have been top 10 but that's also driven by huge point totals from the blueline in a bit of a helter-skelter system under Hartley.

5 on 5, aside from top line, there's not a lot of point consistency in that group until Bennett reaches the next step in his development. I would be a lot more comfortable shifting Bouma/Ferland down to the 4th line and adding a top 6 and top 9 winger into the fold to feel good about this group.

I can agree with most of this, but the notion that scoring is a serious problem is fairly ridiculous. Most NHL teams have the same issue—Hell in the SCF players like Conor Sheary and Carl Hagelin are taking shifts in the Penguins top six. If the Flames can "solve" the matter by adding another scoring winger, then they will likely be an elite level offensive team. It's a terrific goal, but hardly one of pressing concern in the light of other problems like goaltending, size on defense, and special teams play.

Even if the Flames experience a reduction in scoring as a result of system adaptation and coaching, they will still likely be no worse than an average team offensively. Regardless of what happens, they will still be a team that benefits tremendously from a mobile and talented blueline, and which will manage to score consistently by way of committee.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

If the Flames top three right wingers consist of those names it will be lottery time again next fall.

Yup, that's another glaring weakness other than goaltending. Pribyl will almost definitely not make the team given that he's new to North America, but it's possible that Shinkaruk, Hamilton, Agostino, or Poirer makes the top 9. And as much as I would like to see one or more of those kids succeed, I can't see anyone of them making an impact off the bat.

Another issue is that there is little cap space for a top 6 winger after a goalie is worked out and the future Flames get contracts. So I can't see there being any improvement from free agency, unless some salary gets moved out (ie, Stajan or Wideman)

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

If the Flames top three right wingers consist of those names it will be lottery time again next fall.

I don't think that's entirely fair. Last time we made the playoffs, 2/3rds of our top line was held down by a 5'7" rookie and a 20 year old sophomore.

A lot will depend on the growth of our young core. Still more will depend if someone we haven't penciled in for a spot out of camp surprises, as happened in 2014-2015, such as Shinkaruk, Poirier, Jankowski, or possibly even the player we pick at #6 this year.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

If the Flames top three right wingers consist of those names it will be lottery time again next fall.

Why do you think so?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Yup, that's another glaring weakness other than goaltending. Pribyl will almost definitely not make the team given that he's new to North America, but it's possible that Shinkaruk, Hamilton, Agostino, or Poirer makes the top 9. And as much as I would like to see one or more of those kids succeed, I can't see anyone of them making an impact off the bat.

I don't think any one of theme needs to make a significant impact for this group to be successful. The highest impact players who will make the biggest difference for the team offensively are already on the roster, and there is no reason to expect that they will not continue to progress in the same direction they have for the last two years.

Another issue is that there is little cap space for a top 6 winger after a goalie is worked out and the future Flames get contracts. So I can't see there being any improvement from free agency, unless some salary gets moved out (ie, Stajan or Wideman)

I am of the belief that a coaching change combined with improved goaltending will make the most significant positive impact for the flames this season, and will produce results that far outstrip the addition of a top-six winger.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I can agree with most of this, but the notion that scoring is a serious problem is fairly ridiculous. Most NHL teams have the same issue—Hell in the SCF players like Conor Sheary and Carl Hagelin are taking shifts in the Penguins top six. If the Flames can "solve" the matter by adding another scoring winger, then they will likely be an elite level offensive team. It's a terrific goal, but hardly one of pressing concern in the light of other problems like goaltending, size on defense, and special teams play.

Even if the Flames experience a reduction in scoring as a result of system adaptation and coaching, they will still likely be no worse than an average team offensively. Regardless of what happens, they will still be a team that benefits tremendously from a mobile and talented blueline, and which will manage to score consistently by way of committee.

It's a mute point because they'll need to address goaltending and the defensive structure of the team far before the offense is a concern. They could have had the number 1 offense last season and still only had a goal differential of +8.

By virtue of an improved defensive structure alone, they should be a drastically improved team. But if through some horrible turn of events they don't address the goaltending situation, then yes I would turn my attention to the forward ranks as they'll need to be a top 5/6 offense in order to make up for the GA and be a playoff competitive group.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

It's a mute point because they'll need to address goaltending and the defensive structure of the team far before the offense is a concern. They could have had the number 1 offense last season and still only had a goal differential of +8.

By virtue of an improved defensive structure alone, they should be a drastically improved team. But if through some horrible turn of events they don't address the goaltending situation, then yes I would turn my attention to the forward ranks as they'll need to be a top 5/6 offense in order to make up for the GA and be a playoff competitive group.

But the defensemen won't be producing as much, so offense will fall. It's already a weak forward core. They don't have the forward assets to play like the Kings. Even if they get a starter goalie, at best theyre no better than Winnipeg, who carries a solid goalie and mean defense. But Winnipeg has better forward depth.

[Da_Chief]

His nickname should be "That sexy man on the right side of Boring Monahan"

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

But the defensemen won't be producing as much, so offense will fall. It's already a weak forward core. They don't have the forward assets to play like the Kings. Even if they get a starter goalie, at best theyre no better than Winnipeg, who carries a solid goalie and mean defense. But Winnipeg has better forward depth.

There's an argument to be made that simply possessing the puck more will make up for the "lost offence" of not going for the stretch pass constantly.

I think you're being pessimistic about the role that a better defensive game will play in our transition to offence.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

There's an argument to be made that simply possessing the puck more will make up for the "lost offence" of not going for the stretch pass constantly.

I don't think so. Scoring on the rush is definitely more reliable than trying to score out of puck possession against a set defense.

Spoiler!

There were the top 10 Puck Possession teams by 5v5 CF% (SA)
L.A.
PIT
ANA
DAL
NSH
T.B.
STL
S.J.
DET
WSH

These were the top 10 teams by 5v5 Goals For:
DAL
WSH
NYR
PIT
FLA
BOS
NYI
CGY
OTT
T.B

So actually, only four of the best possession teams were the best goal scoring teams.

More possession doesn't ensure you score more goals.

However, don't get me wrong. Possession is important because it means you score more goals than the opponent, which I shall dub the Mikael Backlund Effect.

These were the top 10 teams by 5v5 GF%:
WSH
FLA
NYR
PIT
T.B
L.A
STL
S.J
MIN
DAL

Unsurprisingly, the other three teams left on this list were carried by excellent goalies.

TL;DR - If we improve possession, there may be a decrease in goal scoring. However it's okay, because puck possession is about defense, not offense.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

There's an argument to be made that simply possessing the puck more will make up for the "lost offence" of not going for the stretch pass constantly.

I think you're being pessimistic about the role that a better defensive game will play in our transition to offence.

Yes, he is.

Whether puck possession compensates for the stretch pass or not, the Flames offence—even if it falters—will not fall off a cliff. There is no reason to think even with the implementation of a new system that the same group of players will not be in the top-half of NHL team scoring once again for the third straight season.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

There's an argument to be made that simply possessing the puck more will make up for the "lost offence" of not going for the stretch pass constantly.

I think you're being pessimistic about the role that a better defensive game will play in our transition to offence.

Yeah I'm a little pessimistic. I liked Hartley. Hes was the first to make the playoffs since Keenan, and he had the worst roster since Daryl. Hartley also played entertaining hockey.

Right, but is Bollig going to play possession hockey? Burke wants body checks and fights, not Backlund skating around with the puck all night.

And I've seen data on HF Numbers a few years ago that shows goalies make more saves when there's traffic from the slot, shot blocks are attempted, and shots are from the point. Run and gun leads to shots closer to the net with less defense against. Hence run and guns are "offensive systems".

[Reggie Dunlop]

I like the idea of Pribyl on the second or third line. The opportunity is certainly out there for him.

[MarkGio]

It is pretty dumb to think a coach won't have an effect on offense. Brent Sutter literally switched styles one year to the next and took a nearly identical roster to a top offensive, poor defensive team to the exact opposite the next year.

Players do what their told. The puck is played how their told to play it. If people don't think that doesn't have an effect on offense, then maybe they need to stop watching what's obviously too complicated of a game for their tiny brains. Here's a list of coaches I can think of that completely changed the teams production rates, good or bad

Barry Trotz, Capitals
Laviolette, Predators
Torts, Canucks
Vigneault, Rangers
Cooper, Lightning
Cameron, Senators
Sutter, Kings
Ruff, Stars

I mean do people even think first?

[Five-hole]

I think you should try your point again without being such a dick about it.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

It is pretty dumb to think a coach won't have an effect on offense. Brent Sutter literally switched styles one year to the next and took a nearly identical roster to a top offensive, poor defensive team to the exact opposite the next year.

Players do what their told. The puck is played how their told to play it. If people don't think that doesn't have an effect on offense, then maybe they need to stop watching what's obviously too complicated of a game for their tiny brains.

Holding this level of contempt for your fellow posters is a sure way to get you banned. Knock it off.

Here's a list of coaches I can think of that completely changed the teams production rates, good or bad

Barry Trotz, Capitals — Improved Capitals production from 13th to 7th
Laviolette, Predators — Improved Predators production from 19th to 14th
Torts, Canucks — Reduced Canucks production from 19th to 28th
Vigneault, Rangers — Reduced NYR production from 15th to 19th
Cooper, Lightning — Reduced TB production from 3rd to 9th
Cameron, Senators — No change
Sutter, Kings — Improved LAK production from 29th to 10th
Ruff, Stars — Improved Stars production from 11th to 9th

I mean do people even think first?

Some of us, yes. Clearly, you are not among those who do.

From all the examples you provided I see only two where teams' production changed substantially. Tortorella was a disaster in Vancouver, so this is understandable, and it was an error that was corrected the following season. What I do see in this list is a lot of positive change, and even in instances where most teams dropped in their offensive production, it was still in relatively close range to where they ranked the previous season. What I absolutely do not see—outside of the one anomalous example from Vancouver—is the sort of offensive draught that you are predicting for the Flames.

This actually reflects what I have been saying all along. Yes, I will be unsurprised to see the Flames scoring drop a bit with the introduction of a more stringent system, but IT WILL NOT have such a detrimental effect as to see them fall out of the top half of league scoring.

I maintain that you are being unnecessarily (predictably) pessimistic, and that scoring is among the less urgent issues that the Flames need to address this season. THEY WILL BE FINE. Even entering the season with only minor changes to the same group that finished 2015–16.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

...Right, but is Bollig going to play possession hockey? Burke wants body checks and fights, not Backlund skating around with the puck all night.

Is Burke going to coach the team? All his talk about Bollig is bluster. Nothing more. He said much the same last summer as well.

And I've seen data on HF Numbers a few years ago that shows goalies make more saves when there's traffic from the slot, shot blocks are attempted, and shots are from the point. Run and gun leads to shots closer to the net with less defense against. Hence run and guns are "offensive systems".

To put it bluntly, you have not the foggiest idea about how different the Flames will play next season, what system they will adhere to, nor the results.

[Keselke]

What a relief this story is. I figured he wasn't trying to make the NHL

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yes, he is.

Whether puck possession compensates for the stretch pass or not, the Flames offence—even if it falters—will not fall off a cliff. There is no reason to think even with the implementation of a new system that the same group of players will not be in the top-half of NHL team scoring once again for the third straight season.

I don't think you can say this so unequivocally. The same group playing in a system that holds everyone more defensively accountable, there's a reasonable understanding that the offensive numbers could fall back. I don't think that's crazy logic whatsoever.