[News] Expansion decision expected by June 22 - Page 5 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Erick Estrada · 05-31-2016, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

There are even more retired people in Florida. Remember when putting an NHL team there was a no-brainer because of all the snow-birds? How is that working out?

Miami is a terrible sports market in regards to bums in seats. Regardless of the sport they only support very good teams. The reason the city has all the major sports is because it's a top 15 television market.

Resolute 14 · 05-31-2016, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

You mean besides going to the Cup Finals in their third season?

No, I mean the 20 years after that, obviously. How about you address that, rather than simply ignoring it because it doesn't fit your narrative?

EldrickOnIce · 05-31-2016, 01:04 PM

Vegas may not work, but location of Gila River Arena in 'Phoenix' is similar to putting a team in Vegas and having the arena in 25 miles away in Henderson instead of right on the strip.

Cleveland Steam Whistle · 05-31-2016, 01:05 PM

What's the downside to this not working? People get up in arms about if it's a good market or not, but what is the harm in trying? I'm not trying to be obtuse, an evaluation of market viablility should happen before expansion, so I can understand some of the arguments being made against LV. But if it fails, how badly does this hurt the NHL or it's owners?

I'm guessing not at all, as long as they exit and don't prop it up the way they have done in Phoenix for example. In fact, if it fails, I'm guessing there is little downside to the NHL. So why not try. It's a very unique and interesting business model in LV, far from the traditional as folks have pointed out. I'm, not convinced it will work, but I will admit I'm interested by it and wouldn't mind seeing how it plays out.

craigwd · 05-31-2016, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

What's the downside to this not working? People get up in arms about if it's a good market or not, but what is the harm in trying? I'm not trying to be obtuse, an evaluation of market viablility should happen before expansion, so I can understand some of the arguments being made against LV. But if it fails, how badly does this hurt the NHL or it's owners?

I'm guessing not at all, as long as they exit and don't prop it up the way they have done in Phoenix for example. In fact, if it fails, I'm guessing there is little downside to the NHL. So why not try. It's a very unique and interesting business model in LV, far from the traditional as folks have pointed out. I'm, not convinced it will work, but I will admit I'm interested by it and wouldn't mind seeing how it plays out.

Poor expansion decisions in the 70s didn't hurt the league in the long run.
Like anything, if someone is willing to take a risk, there's no harm in trying.

CliffFletcher · 05-31-2016, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

No, I mean the 20 years after that, obviously. How about you address that, rather than simply ignoring it because it doesn't fit your narrative?

Judging by the evidence of Florida, Carolina, and Anaheim, success on the ice doesn't translate to any sustained increase in popularity or attendance in a market with only shallow support to begin with.

If people in these potential new markets are only going to support a winner, than the NHL is working at cross-purposes by relentlessly expanding the number of teams in the league. In a 32 team league, a new team can't expect to realistically even reach the Finals for 12+ years, and may very well not make it for more than 20.

Senator Clay Davis · 05-31-2016, 01:34 PM

I'm still shocked the NHL is actually wanting to do expansion when it has several very poor markets already. It's not like the NFL where every team is swimming in cash. There are obvious teams that should be moving, yet they want to add another team to another questionable market. The NHL should really avoid Vegas to me, the NFL is lurking and that would devastate the NHL team from a corporate investment and luxury box perspective. I also think the NBA will swoop in quickly in the NHL does even slightly well, and that too will severely hurt the NHL team. Vegas sports fans love the NFL and NBA...NHL, not so much.

If you look at Anaheim, they have put forth a team that resembles a dynasty (outside of, you know, actually winning anything), and that hasn't put asses in seats. If the NHL wants Vegas to succeed they're almost forced to rig things so they have enough talent to be successful quickly. But a middling NHL hockey team in Las Vegas is the same as any other middling entertainment option down there, likely to be cancelled without a casino residency.

Resolute 14 · 05-31-2016, 01:38 PM

^Pretty sure the luxury suites are already sold in the Vegas arena, and would be so regardless of the NFL. That arena will, obviously, host a hell of a lot more than just NHL hockey.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Judging by the evidence of Florida, Carolina, and Anaheim, success on the ice doesn't translate to any sustained increase in popularity or attendance in a market with only shallow support to begin with.

If people in these potential new markets are only going to support a winner, than the NHL is working at cross-purposes by relentlessly expanding the number of teams in the league. In a 32 team league, a new team can't expect to realistically even reach the Finals for 12+ years, and may very well not make it for more than 20.

In the case of Florida, at least, you are talking about a team that missed the playoffs in 15 of 17 years and went 19 years between victories in single playoff games. There is a far gulf between "realistically reaching the finals" and simply being one of the top 16 teams more than once a decade.

Oling_Roachinen · 05-31-2016, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

Pretty sure Nielsen and Numeris know how to properly measure a media market. It's just what they're in the business of doing.

I didn't mean to suggest otherwise, it's the issue with using that 'media market' to use it as a basis for NHL market. When you're including places several hours away as part of the media market, it loses most of the useful information in the point it was trying to establish when gate revenue is such a high priority for the teams. Not a ton of season ticket holders are going to be making the three hour commute from Medicine Hat to catch the games in Calgary.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

If you add up the communities within 25 miles of Calgary (as I did just yesterday for a Reddit thread) you get 1.43 million people. That is just Calgary, Airdrie, Okotoks, Chestermere, Cochrane, Rockyview County and MD Foothills.

Lethbridge and Medicine Hat alone put you over 1.6 million.

Yes, obviously you can get to 1.6M using Lethbridge, Medicine Hat and Red Deer. The issue is those are three hours away in some cases which distorts the numbers to the point of losing a lot of the meaning. Depending on exact location, from Vegas you can get to LA and Phoenix in 3 1/2 hours (obviously they wouldn't have a reason to be Vegas fan like Medicine Hat would have for being a Flames fan).

Resolute 14 · 05-31-2016, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Yes, obviously you can get to 1.6M using Lethbridge, Medicine Hat and Red Deer. The issue is those are three hours away in some cases which distorts the numbers to the point of losing a lot of the meaning. Depending on exact location, from Vegas you can get to LA and Phoenix in 3 1/2 hours (obviously they wouldn't have a reason to be Vegas fan like Medicine Hat would have for being a Flames fan).

The table we were discussing was referring to media markets, not the distance to which fans could be expected to drive. Gate attendance is the largest single driver of revenue, but it isn't an overwhelming one. You simply can't discount the media market argument simply because you don't like it.

LA and Phoenix would not be in Las Vegas's media market due to the regions being controlled by the Coyotes and the Kings/Ducks, and it seems unlikely any of them would be willing to share.

troutman · 05-31-2016, 02:35 PM

I noticed that the table does not include SW Ontario. Between Windsor and Guelph, with London in the middle, there are 3.4 M people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwestern_Ontario

Finger Cookin · 05-31-2016, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by troutman

I noticed that the table does not include SW Ontario. Between Windsor and Guelph, with London in the middle, there are 3.4 M people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwestern_Ontario

Since the media markets listed are Toronto-Hamilton, Kitchener-London, and Barrie, most of those 3.4M (or 2.5M, that wiki article is wildly inconsistent) people are likely accounted for.

Oling_Roachinen · 05-31-2016, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The table we were discussing was referring to media markets, not the distance to which fans could be expected to drive.

Yes. We are aware. It's just not a good metric. The absolute biggest metric for the success of an expansion team would be attendance. Using numbers that include populations that won't attend (regularly) flaws the system if you're looking to compare the markets. If the argument is that Edmonton has a bigger market than Calgary because of Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie, something's gone a bit goofy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

LA and Phoenix would not be in Las Vegas's media market due to the regions being controlled by the Coyotes and the Kings/Ducks, and it seems unlikely any of them would be willing to share.

Of course those markets are already taken and more importantly the fans are already 'taken'. It was just to point out that if you're including populations three+ hours away, then Vegas has an incredibly huge population to draw from. Sure, it's different, I'm not trying to draw a direct parallel because I think the entire argument is flawed in the first place.

Finger Cookin · 05-31-2016, 02:52 PM

The article using media markets wasn't trying to measure attendance. It was trying to measure how many NHL fans there were in Canada vs the USA, and use that to determine how many teams should be in each country. There are many fans of the NHL, even who live within minutes of the arenas, who never attend games. They're still fans.

speede5 · 05-31-2016, 02:59 PM

They will announce only one expansion team, Vegas. Carolina will be moving to Quebec this summer.

Resolute 14 · 05-31-2016, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Yes. We are aware. It's just not a good metric. The absolute biggest metric for the success of an expansion team would be attendance. Using numbers that include populations that won't attend (regularly) flaws the system if you're looking to compare the markets. If the argument is that Edmonton has a bigger market than Calgary because of Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie, something's gone a bit goofy.

Of course those markets are already taken and more importantly the fans are already 'taken'. It was just to point out that if you're including populations three+ hours away, then Vegas has an incredibly huge population to draw from. Sure, it's different, I'm not trying to draw a direct parallel because I think the entire argument is flawed in the first place.

You're arguing something other than what the people behind those tables were.

What you are arguing is more akin to this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comm...ile_radius_of/

Markets without a team: https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comm...ius_of/d3p5zjk

(Population data is old, so YMMV; Calgary and Edmonton are off by about 30%, so I'm betting the figures come from the last federal censuses.)

Cali Panthers Fan · 05-31-2016, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by habernac

Great point, but I think the casinos will most likely gobble up any extras and comp them to hotels, etc.

Yes, thank you. I'm not sure why people can't recognize that a lot of entertainment tickets are bought and then "comped" by casino/hotels for guests and high rollers. You may not always have a fan in that seat, but you will always have a large number of tickets sold regardless of the "regular fan" support. I wouldn't be shocked to see a couple hundred tickets per game bought by the casinos for promotion/giveaway.

Remember, this is a business move, not necessarily a "grow the brand" move.

Weitz · 05-31-2016, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Yes, thank you. I'm not sure why people can't recognize that a lot of entertainment tickets are bought and then "comped" by casino/hotels for guests and high rollers. You may not always have a fan in that seat, but you will always have a large number of tickets sold regardless of the "regular fan" support. I wouldn't be shocked to see a couple hundred tickets per game bought by the casinos for promotion/giveaway.

Remember, this is a business move, not necessarily a "grow the brand" move.

Casino's aren't big on comping things that take you away from their site. They were talking about this on the radio today.

They will comp you show tickets/hotels/food/bars. But it's all on their property. For most people that is.

Finger Cookin · 05-31-2016, 03:12 PM

So at least NYNY will be comping some. And since MGM owns the arena, probably other MGM casinos will comp as well. If you've got to leave an MGM casino, you might as well be spending money at an MGM arena.

Cleveland Steam Whistle · 05-31-2016, 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Weitz

Casino's aren't big on comping things that take you away from their site. They were talking about this on the radio today.

They will comp you show tickets/hotels/food/bars. But it's all on their property. For most people that is.

I believe this to be true. However, there is an element of making folks feel special and liking to give things out for free to high rollers who they know are going to come back just cause those folks want to say they "got something".

That said, I doubt the business model in Vegas and the NHL would have anything to do with comps to high rollers already down in Vegas. My guess is it would be a destination play to existing hockey fans in other markets. For example:

Hey CSW from Calgary, come to the MGM Grand and stay 3 nights with you and a bunch of your buddies, and we'll throw in the tickets to the Flames game while you are down here for free.

So they lose me for 3 hrs while I watch the game, but I just planned a whole boys weekend around going to Vegas to see the Flames and they get me in their casino and restaurants for the other 69 hrs of my trip.