[News] Expansion decision expected by June 22

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I have a bit of inside info on Vegas

What I was told is the home games for this team will typically always fall during the weekdays as such a huge portion of the locals work on the weekends. They are gearing up for a good home base of fans. Those hoping to catch a Friday or Saturday night flames game will likely be disappointed. On the bright side it is cheaper to go to Vegas on weekdays than the weekend but it chews up vacation days for us Mon-Fri crowd

They will play weekend games but probably some afternooners

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Not really though. Add up Airdrie, Okotoks, Chestermere, Cochrane, High River, and throw in some rural numbers and it still doesn't get really all that close to 1.6M. With those numbers, it seems that they are probably double dipping on Red Deer and including it in both markets.

Pretty sure Nielsen and Numeris know how to properly measure a media market. It's just what they're in the business of doing.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by troutman

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...e-stanley-cup/

Not an exact science, but more grist for the mill.

When I look at this I see 48% avidity for both Montreal and QC. So adding a team in QC isn't likely to get the NHL any new fans. The people in QC are already consumers of the NHL product at the same rate as people in Montreal, and both cities are already lower than the rest of the country. So why go there, unless you're desperate?

Las Vegas has the potential to be a huge home run. Time will tell of course, but you don't make gains without taking risks.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

When I look at this I see 48% avidity for both Montreal and QC. So adding a team in QC isn't likely to get the NHL any new fans. The people in QC are already consumers of the NHL product at the same rate as people in Montreal, and both cities are already lower than the rest of the country. So why go there, unless you're desperate?

Las Vegas has the potential to be a huge home run. Time will tell of course, but you don't make gains without taking risks.

Yes. Small swings in big markets can result in huge increases in the number of fans. It's why larger US markets are always more intriguing. If adding an expansion team means even a 1-2% uptick in interest (i.e. as successful as Nashville, Phoenix, Tampa Bay, or Carolina)in a market like Vegas, that base of avid fans grows to the same size of avid fans as are in Quebec City.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Not really though, I mean depending on how far you want to go to define the market. Add up Airdrie, Okotoks, Chestermere, Cochrane, High River, and throw in some rural numbers and it still doesn't get really all that close to 1.6M. With those numbers, it seems that they are probably double dipping on Red Deer and including it in both markets.

The Flames media market would include everything from Red Deer south. The Calgary metro area is 1.2 million, which includes Airdrie and Cochrane, but not Okotoks, High River, or Strathmore. There's about 1.3 million people who live within about an hour's drive of the Saddledome. Then, you add in Lethbridge, Red Deer, Medicine Hat, Brooks and all the smaller communities in between, and 1.6 is certainly within range.

[puckedoff]

Population of Alberta is 4mm, subtract people who dont watch TV and the rest are either in the Calgary or the Edmonton media market. Seems about right to me.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by FiveSeven

What about the people that live in Vegas? It's not like they keep on living the Vegas lifestyle. There are a lot of normal people just living life. I don't think the novelty will wear off so drastically that it will look like a terrible move. Only time will tell though.

But the thing is, there aren't a lot of normal people in Las Vegas. Not normal in the sense of an NHL fan with enough money to attend games. That means well paid white-collar professionals and successful tradespeople who have their own business. Vegas is mostly service workers, many of them poorly paid. The median income is below average for the U.S., and well below average for a major city. Is a bartender from the MGM Grand really going to splash out for NHL tickets? Or a limo driver? Or a payroll administrator at a casino?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

When I look at this I see 48% avidity for both Montreal and QC. So adding a team in QC isn't likely to get the NHL any new fans. The people in QC are already consumers of the NHL product at the same rate as people in Montreal, and both cities are already lower than the rest of the country. So why go there, unless you're desperate?

Las Vegas has the potential to be a huge home run. Time will tell of course, but you don't make gains without taking risks.

By that reasoning, Caracas has enormous growth potential for an NHL franchise.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

Pretty sure Nielsen and Numeris know how to properly measure a media market. It's just what they're in the business of doing.

The thing is, this information is radically irrelevant to an NHL franchise, since the NHL is heavily dependent on gate revenue.

In the first place, a media market may include areas so far away from the core city that there is little chance any of their residents will buy significant numbers of game tickets. The Calgary DMA, as measured by Nielsen, includes Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, and Jasper (!). The Vancouver DMA includes all of Vancouver Island, and the coast all the way up to Sullivan Bay.

What's more, many of these so-called possible expansion markets have no arena that could possibly accommodate an NHL team, and no prospect of building any. Sherbrooke, for instance, is allegedly a ‘possible market for expansion or relocation’. The arena there is the Palais des Sports, which seats 3,646.

You also need to remember that the number of ‘avid fans’ is based on information about Google searches conducted in a district. It's a long, long step from looking up hockey information on Google to actually buying tickets to NHL games.

In short, the population data for the DMAs is accurate – but the ‘avid fans’ data is based on bogus methodology. Even the DMA information was never intended to be applied in this way. An algorithm that rates ‘Sudbury–Thunder Bay’ as a possible NHL market is beyond screwy. Take these so-called data with all the salt you can mine, or better yet, don't take them at all.

[habernac]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

But the thing is, there aren't a lot of normal people in Las Vegas. Not normal in the sense of an NHL fan with enough money to attend games. That means well paid white-collar professionals and successful tradespeople who have their own business. Vegas is mostly service workers, many of them poorly paid. The median income is below average for the U.S., and well below average for a major city. Is a bartender from the MGM Grand really going to splash out for NHL tickets? Or a limo driver? Or a payroll administrator at a casino?

Lots of retired people from northern climates as well. My folks retired there a decade or so ago (still summer in Calgary). They've got tons of friends from all over. Chicago, New York, Minnesota, etc.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Not really though, I mean depending on how far you want to go to define the market. Add up Airdrie, Okotoks, Chestermere, Cochrane, High River, and throw in some rural numbers and it still doesn't get really all that close to 1.6M. With those numbers, it seems that they are probably double dipping on Red Deer and including it in both markets.

Lethbridge and Medicine Hat. Not sure where Red Deer would fit being in the middle.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by habernac

Lots of retired people from northern climates as well. My folks retired there a decade or so ago (still summer in Calgary). They've got tons of friends from all over. Chicago, New York, Minnesota, etc.

There are even more retired people in Florida. Remember when putting an NHL team there was a no-brainer because of all the snow-birds? How is that working out?

[saillias]

No I don't remember the business of hockey discussions that happened about Florida in the early 90s. Was that a line that was used, it was a no-brainer because of the snowbirds? Because that's obviously not a reliable fan base. Maybe if 1 million snowbirds relocated to Sunrise and Tampa.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by saillias

No I don't remember the business of hockey discussions that happened about Florida in the early 90s. Was that a line that was used, it was a no-brainer because of the snowbirds? Because that's obviously not a reliable fan base. Maybe if 1 million snowbirds relocated to Sunrise and Tampa.

It was. Proponents pointed to the 4 million or so snowbirds who visited Florida every year and the hundreds of thousands of retirees from NHL cities.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Not really though, I mean depending on how far you want to go to define the market. Add up Airdrie, Okotoks, Chestermere, Cochrane, High River, and throw in some rural numbers and it still doesn't get really all that close to 1.6M. With those numbers, it seems that they are probably double dipping on Red Deer and including it in both markets.

If you add up the communities within 25 miles of Calgary (as I did just yesterday for a Reddit thread) you get 1.43 million people. That is just Calgary, Airdrie, Okotoks, Chestermere, Cochrane, Rockyview County and MD Foothills.

Lethbridge and Medicine Hat alone put you over 1.6 million.


In reality, the Flames and Oilers 'media market' overlaps perfectly. And it is about 3.5 million people.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

By that reasoning, Caracas has enormous growth potential for an NHL franchise.

That's correct. If Caracas was in North America, had a brand new NHL arena, and a billionaire owner interested in buying a team.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

There are even more retired people in Florida. Remember when putting an NHL team there was a no-brainer because of all the snow-birds? How is that working out?

Much like the Phoenix example, it is hard to make a good call given (a) the arena is in a tremendously stupid location and (b) the team sucked for two full decades.

[habernac]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

There are even more retired people in Florida. Remember when putting an NHL team there was a no-brainer because of all the snow-birds? How is that working out?

Great point, but I think the casinos will most likely gobble up any extras and comp them to hotels, etc.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

There are even more retired people in Florida. Remember when putting an NHL team there was a no-brainer because of all the snow-birds? How is that working out?

Arizona too.

There's also the famous quote from the original owner of the Kings who said that he bought a hockey team because he was told that there are 3 million Canadians living in the Los Angeles area, but what they didn't tell him was that those people all moved to LA because they hate hockey.

It's not just hockey either. I remember a similar quote from someone with the Tampa Bay Rays. They looked at all the former New Yorkers and Boston residents and thought baseball in Tampa would be an easy sell, but they soon found out that people who have been cheering for the Yankees and Red Sox for 50+ years, don't become Devil Rays fans overnight.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Much like the Phoenix example, it is hard to make a good call given (a) the arena is in a tremendously stupid location and (b) the team sucked for two full decades.

You mean besides going to the Cup Finals in their third season? Which brings to mind the Hurricanes - five thousand empty seats every night two years after winning the Cup.

There are places where hockey is not popular, and is unlikely ever to be popular, no matter how many arenas are built and how desperately the league wants them to succeed.