2016 NHL Draft

[Crumpy-Gunt]

I would be super happy with tkachuk but I dont think its worth trading up for. I would actually rather trade down than up in this draft. Trading down to about 8-10 and grabbing the best d-man left out of Juolevi/Sergachev/Chychrun. If they are gone I'd be over the moon with Keller. I think he's going to have a Kyle Conner type season in the NCAA.

[albertGQ]

I don't want to trade #35 just to go to #4. We can get a good prospect at #35. I would for #3, but that won't happen.

Nylander + whoever we get at #35 > Dubois or Tkachuk

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

For the most part the consensus 4-6 players in the draft are the forwards I listed in differing orders (ISS has Nylander ahead of both Dubios and Tkachuk). Look I get that you would prefer one of these defenseman over Nylander and that's fine and all but you have yet to convince me that any of these defensemen will fill the Flames organizational needs better than Nylander. Gaudreau, Monahan, and Bennett need help on RW badly and I don't see any value in signing a guy like Okposo to fill that void at $5 million/season when you can draft a more talented young kid that will be on an entry level deal for years. Also I'm not of the opinion that the team needs to get bigger or harder to play against. They simply need to play better defense, get better goaltending, and continue to bolster their top 6 forward depth.

Good points.

I would counter with the following points:

1) UFA is not the only way to address RW. Trade is a major route that shouldn't be underestimated. IMO the Flames have never had as many valuable assets in my entire time of watching the team as they do now. They have a wealth of young NHLers, prospects and picks with which to trade for a RW.

2) RW needs to be solved this summer. Nylander likely isn't ready due to his frame and his defensive play. IMO we don't draft to fill immediate needs if the player is not NHL ready. Treliving may have to trade for and/or sign a couple RWs this summer. If he does then RW may not be a huge need by the time Nylander is NHL ready. Lets say he trades for a young #1 RW and Frolik moves up the lineup under the new coach to be our #2 RW. Boom, RW no longer a big issue.

3) While you may not think the Flames need to get bigger or harder to play management does appear to believe it. So if we're evaluating what we think management will do vs what we want it may play a big role. Our division already contains a lot of big forwards and big d-men and EDM and VAN are looking to continue to add size/strength as well. We lack size and bite in our top 6 forwards and in our top 4 defense.

4) I'm not proposing they draft a d-man to fill an organizational need although IMO we don't have any future top pairing guys so it would fill an organizational need long term. I'm proposing they draft a d-man because they consider the d-man the BPA on their list. I think Flames management values potential top pairing d-men higher value philosophically than 1st line finesse wingers. Therefore I think there's a chance they see a couple of Chychrun, Sergachev and Juolevi as a more valuable prospect than Nylander.

Anyways, love the discussion. I totally understand why people want Nylander, he does make a lot of sense and has a very appealing skill set. However I don't believe he's a consensus top 6 pick so that is one argument I can't buy at all. I don't believe there's much consensus after the top 3. The only consensus argument I can buy into is that Tkachuk likely goes top 5 (and I wouldn't even consider that a sure bet). Outside of that we shouldn't fool ourselves into thinking that there is consensus on anything.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

I would be disappointed with both those offers.

Just take Jost or Keller at 6 instead. I don't see a huge amount of difference between Tkachuk and those two (they bring different things). Keller is basically another Gaudreau, slightly worse as a prospect, but not by much and Jost is quite a sniper with good hands and is only a little undersized at 5-11. Either of those options is just as good as the slightly bigger Tkachuk would be. There are good players available in the 2nd/3rd round if you're digging through the mediocre guys that it doesn't make sense to ditch the picks for a minor upgrade if at all. .

I'd be disappointed to take Keller or Jost at #6 because we could trade down several spots and still grab those guys. I mean I get why you like those players, they are very good players and very good prospects. But the top end this year is very deep and I think Jost/Keller are outside the top 8 because of that. It's no slight on them. Jost/Keller would be guys I'd be excited to get in the teens. I have a hard time seeing them in the Flames top 8. Again, not because they aren't good prospects but because I think there's even higher upside guys ahead of them. I mean we've gotten a lot of talk on Keller but I think Jost is equally as attractive if not moreso. Redline loves both and Keller doesn't make their top 10 but Jost makes their top 8.

Feel like doing another ranking as I feel like I'm finally starting to get a good handle on some of these players through more scouting reports coming out, more interviews I've heard with GMs and scouts, etc. So here's FDW's long weekend rankings for the Flames

T1. Matthews (C)
T1. Laine (W)
3. Puljujarvi (RW)
T4. Tkachuk (LW)
T4. Dubois (W/C)
6. Chychrun (D)
7. Sergachev (D)
8. Brown (C)
9. Nylander (W)
10. Juolevi (D)
11. Jost (C/W)
12. Fabbro (D)
13. Bean (D)
14. McAvoy (D)
15. Keller (C)
16. McLeod (C)
17. Gauthier (RW)
18. Bellows (LW)
19. Jones (LW)
20. Kunin (C)

[1qqaaz]

Good stuff. We will ever see a FDW mock draft?

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Brock Otten has released his list of OHL draft eligibles.

Incidentially... these are guys that I wouldn't mind seeing the Flames pick-up with later picks if they're available (From the same site which I agree is a great read):

9. Nathan Bastian - Forward - Mississauga Steelheads
Seems to have taken a big hit in the rankings the last few months, falling from late first round consideration to the mid second (or so). But I'm most definitely still a believer. Yes, he struggled down the stretch, but I think that had more to do with James Boyd's line pairings and usage than Bastian himself. I'm a believer because I see him being a very good pro player. He's 6'4, 210lbs and can play any forward position, providing a lot of versatility to a lineup. He's also a great two-way player and a physical asset who is especially effective at using his body to gain possession in the offensive end. This is impressive to me because, believe it or not, he was drafted into the OHL at 5'11, 155lbs. He hit a major growth spurt and has taken some time to get used to the added size and how to adjust his playing style. I think that actually makes him more alluring as a prospect because I think there's still room for him to grow physically (in terms of maturity) and it's scary to think about how good he could become in possession and as a physical player. Offensively, his biggest asset is his vision and playmaking ability, something that's not common for a power forward. When partnered with Alex Nylander and Mike McLeod, he was an underrated component to their success as a unit. He opened up space, but also did a great job displaying patience and poise with the puck, drawing defenders in before making a great pass to create a scoring chance. That's why I actually think he's best suited as a center long term (he looked great there with Michael McLeod out IMO). His shot and work in close to the net needs to be better, especially for a big guy, but I think that's all part of him continuing to grow as a player. If you're patient, you might have a 6'4 two-way center who can really control the possession game and be a physical nightmare to matchup against. Or you could have a Patrick Maroon type of player who can work as a complimentary power piece on a 2nd line/3rd line.

21. Dmitri Sokolov - Forward - Sudbury Wolves
I seem to be the only one moving him up my list in the 2nd half, rather than dropping him. And I don't really understand why. Was he the top 10 talent that many thought he'd be prior to the season? No. But does his potential, size, and skill set make him a valuable top 75 pick? I certainly think so. Let's examine the facts. He was the only rookie in the league this year to hit the 30 goal mark (even over Nylander and Jones), and he did it with little help in Sudbury. He finished the year with 12 goals in his final 15 games. He lost over 20lbs over the course of the year and dedicated himself to being in better shape. And he battled a shoulder injury all season long that limited his effectiveness and required offseason surgery. At the beginning of the year, I was not impressed. He looked slow. He looked disengaged without the puck. But I thought he was much better in the second half, especially late in the year. He has the potential to be a real load for opposing defenders to handle based on the way he can protect the puck. And boy can he fire the puck, with a quick release. Does he still need to get quicker? Yes. Does he still need to improve his overall play? Yes. But I'm pretty curious to see how he does next year with a good shoulder, a better supporting cast, and (likely) even better conditioning. You have to give it up for the way he battled this year and the improvements he was able to make in a tough environment.

19. Givani Smith - Forward - Guelph Storm
Definitely a player scouts seem to be pretty split on this year. And that's because he battled major consistency issues. Now, admittedly, every time I saw Guelph this year he was a big time factor. Thus explaining my high ranking of him. When he's on, Smith is a powerball. Easily one of the most physical players in the league, Smith excels on the forecheck where he enters the zone like a missile. He forces a lot of turnovers and is able to maintain possession of the puck through good footwork along the boards. He definitely does the majority of his work offensively below the hash marks, where he also attacks the net looking for rebounds. I think his hands and vision with the puck are underrated and I do see upside as a 2nd line winger at the next level. But he does have some warts. His explosiveness needs to improve so that he can be a bigger factor entering the zone and on net drives. His defensive game needs work, as he needs to find a way to translate his energy and physicality in the offensive zone to the backcheck. And he needs to be more disciplined and refrain from taking bad penalties. But true power forward prospects don't come around all that often anymore and Smith is a true throwback player.

17. Cliff Pu - Forward - London Knights
Every year there's a player who makes a late push up the draft board with a strong late season and playoff performance. This year that player is Cliff Pu. Started the year as part of a carousel of players on London's checking lines, but finished the year as one of the biggest reasons for London's playoff success. Counting the playoffs, Pu had 21 points in his final 26 games. Pu is at his best off the rush where he's a deceptively quick skater. He does a great job with puck control and possession in close to defenders, and uses quick turns and pivots to create space. He demonstrates a really good head for the game, and plays in all situations for the Knights, especially excelling as a penalty killer. As a center, he could definitely develop into an excellent two-way player who could anchor your 2nd/3rd line. I would definitely not be surprised if he's one of the first few picks off the board in the 2nd round. This year's Christian Dvorak/Remi Elie?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by 868904

This isn't directed at you in particular, but it is funny how the desirability of a prospect increases once the liklihoood of acquiring him decreases.

Before the lottery, there were a lot more critics of Tkachuck on this board. People calling him just a complimentary player, lacking in high end skill. I think I was one of those too.

But after the lottery, with the Flames unlikely to get him, I don't see a lot of the critics around anymore. It seems like Tkachuk is now the dream selection but it would take a miracle to get him.

Totally agree!

What I recommend is reading draft views from teams below Calgary. I read the Sabres one from Hockey Writers earlier today and it made me really happy!

At 8 they are hoping for what Calgary fans are annoyed with.

Do it!

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

So yes, Nylander may end up as a 70-80 point finesse winger. But if we turn that down for a guy who has "potential to develop into a dominant two-way defender who could challenge for multiple Norris trophies" in Chychrun, or a 6'6 Mats Sundin in Brown, or a guy who has "potential to be a perennial NHL all star" in Sergachev should we be disappointed? How could we be?

Aren't we getting a little carried away now? We've gone from "possible" number two guys, to perennial all stars and Norris candidates? Nylander a top 15 player in the NHL?

I think Ashashx said #6 is the most disappointing position in the draft and New Era seems very Debbie Downer on the upside of the second tier but I see it very differently. I like the players in the 4-10 range a lot. I'd be happy with most of them.

Personally, I like the 4-20 range. I think you will get a quality player in this strata. I think they all have strengths, but they all have weaknesses. I don't see any great players, but I do see some pretty good support players available. I don't think seeing these kids for what they are is being a Debbie Downer. For the past year we have heard that there are three really good players in this draft, then a next stata of anywhere from 12-15 players that could be good players. To me that has always read as three possible 1st line players and then a group of possible 2nd line players. I think there are elements that are building this draft up to levels that expectations will just never meet. I would rather we went into this with a realistic take on these kids, and if they over-achieve, it is a bonus.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Good stuff. We will ever see a FDW mock draft?

Sure if you tell me who EDM is gonna trade #4 to I'll get right on it

I do think there's such a high probability of EDM trading the pick outright in a deal for a defenceman or trading down that it presents a real problem for doing a serious mock draft. Since I can't predict where they might trade the pick outright to for the purposes of a mock draft I'll have to assume they either trade down or stay at 4.

IMO from listening to Chiarelli interviews I believe there's a high likelihood of them trading down. He's talked about Tkachuk, Dubois, Brown and 3-4 defenders. He's talked about the players from 4-9 being really good players. I believe he would trade down further than that if an NHL defenceman is in the deal but predicting that is near impossible.

Who would be interested in trading up with the Oil? Who would pay the price the Oilers would be asking?

#9 - MTL - I think they'd be interested in moving up but I don't think they have the picks to make it happen
#8 - BUF - BUF has high end talent, they have powerforwards, they have pure skill. If anything they could use a top pairing LHD to go with Ristolainen. I don't think they have the urgency to trade up and pay what EDM would want. They can sit at #8 and grab a dman or Nylander if he slips.
#7 - ARI has the assets to move up as they have an extra 1st and a high 2nd but do they need to move up? Arguably their biggest need is on defence. Do they want one of the powerforwards badly enough to trade up or should they sit at #7 and grab one of the top couple dmen or Nylander? Seems reasonable just to stay there IMO
#6 - CGY has the picks to move up with three 2nds and picks in every round. They could be content to sit there and still get a great prospect. But they also could be motivated to move up to #4 and grab their favorite powerforward who fits their immediate and long terms needs so well. I don't think they're motivated enough to pay a huge overpayment. As such I think the shrewd Treliving wouldn't offer much more than a late 2nd and a 4th. That may be the best offer EDM gets
#5 - VAN - I don't see any motivation for them to deal up one spot. I think it more likely they move down but I think they'll just stay at 5

So on to the mock draft!

#1 - TOR - Matthews (C) - You take franchise centres when they are available.
#2 - WPG - Laine (W) - His goal scoring prowess is too hard to turn down. Likely a future superstar
#3 - CBJ - Puljujarvi (RW) - BPA. They have the assets to trade for a center if need be
EDM trades #4 to CGY for picks #6, a late 2nd and a 4th
#4 - CGY - Tkachuk (LW) - Flames love his skill, strength and jam around the net. A perfect fit with Monahan and Johnny or with Bennett
#5 - VAN - Dubois (F) - Canucks get a complete package in Dubois who can play all 3 forward positions and plays with skill and power
#6 - EDM - Sergachev (D) - Chiarelli finds the dman market is stiffer than he thought. They decide they have to draft a top pairing dman and favor the offensive potential of Sergachev with his skill, skating, size combination. They badly need his powerplay quarterback upside and ability to play in all situations
#7 ARI - Juolevi (D) - They have a wealth of young talent up front with the top two centres in the OHL (Strome and Dvorak) the highest scorer in the Q (Garland) and another top prospect at RW (Fischer) plus young Domi and Duclair. So they go D right? Makes a ton of sense. Juolevi or Chychrun? Who knows who they favor. I'll guess Juolevi.
#8 - BUF - Nylander (W) - They wouldn't have minded a defenceman but they're happy to go BPA and they had Nylander higher than 8th and think his skill and hockey sense will pair nicely with Eichel, Reinhart, O'Reilly and Kane up front
#9 - MTL - Brown (C) - They love his size, skill, skating combo and think he could make a lethal 1-2 punch with Galchenyuk. They were surprised he was still there.
#10 - COL - Chychrun (D) - They're surprised he's still there. They happily grab him and hope he develops into that franchise dmen they need.
#11 - NJ - Jost (C/W) - NJ has really missed Parise. Jost could be that driving forward that they've missed since Parise left

...to be continued. I'll edit this post later to finish it off.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

Aren't we getting a little carried away now? We've gone from "possible" number two guys, to perennial all stars and Norris candidates? Nylander a top 15 player in the NHL?

I don't think we're getting carried away. Surely you understand the difference between a players top potential upside and their likely upside. Not all players will achieve their highest upside. And Nylander will certainly rely on being paired with a strong centre to score 70-80 points. Let's make one thing clear, those scouts who really like Chychrun think he has franchise defenceman potential. Thus you get the scout who has him 4th that Mackenzie talked to. If a team takes Chychrun early then yes, they feel he's a potential franchise dman. If a team takes Sergachev high then yes, they feel he has that all star upside.

Originally Posted by New Era

Personally, I like the 4-20 range. I think you will get a quality player in this strata. I think they all have strengths, but they all have weaknesses. I don't see any great players, but I do see some pretty good support players available. I don't think seeing these kids for what they are is being a Debbie Downer. For the past year we have heard that there are three really good players in this draft, then a next stata of anywhere from 12-15 players that could be good players. To me that has always read as three possible 1st line players and then a group of possible 2nd line players. I think there are elements that are building this draft up to levels that expectations will just never meet. I would rather we went into this with a realistic take on these kids, and if they over-achieve, it is a bonus.

There's 2-3 likely superstars and numerous likely stars in this draft. Several of the players in the 4-20 range have top pairing defence or 1st line forward potential. Benning has talked about Tkachuk and Dubois having 1st line line upside and has said there's two defencemen they like as top pairing guys. Chiarelli has said much the same.

I see lots of great prospects in the 4-20 range. Seems like what you're actually doing is underestimating the upside of some of the guys outside the top 3 and passing it off as realism when it looks like pessimism to me. It's a good recipe for pleasant surprises I'll give you that.

Neither of us can prove our stance so only time will tell. Hopefully you remember this thread when some of those guys in the 4-20 range are impact, star NHLers

[timbit]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Neither of us can prove our stance so only time will tell. Hopefully you remember this thread when some of those guys in the 4-20 range are impact, star NHLers.

Like Keller?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by timbit

Like Keller?

He has that potential yes. I think a lot of players in the 4-20 range have star potential. Keller will obviously have to overcome his size issues but his offensive skill level shows star potential.

[simmer2]

Max Jones is a polarizing guy...wonder where he ends up.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Hopefully you remember this thread when some of those guys in the 4-20 range are impact, star NHLers

There is a big difference between being an impact NHL player what you described. I hope you'll remember this thread when they don't become perennial all stars, Norris trophy candidates, or top 15 players in the NHL.

[Trailer Fire]

You must be Flames are Sssmokin'

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by New Era

There is a big difference between being an impact NHL player what you described. I hope you'll remember this thread when they don't become perennial all stars, Norris trophy candidates, or top 15 players in the NHL.

Yet some of them will, it happens every draft. Not sure why you are rolling your eyes on that.

[Vulcan]

Whatever people say about Wideman, I think he'd be a good pick up for the Oilers. He may not fit in with us as well as he once did but he'd be a solid PP QB for Edmonton. This isn't new but I propose we trade him if willing, with our 6th to the Oil for their 4th. I'd even be happy with throwing in a pick and picking up part of his salary.

[iloveicedhockey]

Are Montreal surprised brown is there at 9 because they rate him much higher, or because they haven't seen any of the many draft rankings that had him ranked between 8 and 15?

I like the trade up to 4 but agree when it was questioned who actually wants to trade up. Montreal for sure, though I think the price would be high given that Edmonton would potentially go from first choice of the defenseman to whatever is left. I think the fan base forgive them when they take Dubois but we all know what kind of shape they're in with regards to depth.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Whatever people say about Wideman, I think he'd be a good pick up for the Oilers. He may not fit in with us as well as he once did but he'd be a solid PP QB for Edmonton. This isn't new but I propose we trade him if willing, with our 6th to the Oil for their 4th. I'd even be happy with throwing in a pick and picking up part of his salary.

Wideman + 6th + another pick + retained salary to move up 2 picks?

Im curious what that package would return minus our 6th pick.

Personally, I wouldnt give up that much to go from Nylander/Sergachev/Juolevi/(maybe Tkachuk) to what will likely be Dubois. I think he's clearly the 4th best prospect but I dont think there is that big of a gap to give up that much.

I'd be happy with Nylander or Sergachev.

After watching the 1st 2 periods of the London Knights game (it was 6-1 at the end of the 2nd for the Knights) today I have a feeling Tkachuk has been riding the work of Dvorak and Marner a bit. They are just incredible. Marner obviously drives the line, hes the best player in the OHL..but I think Dvorak is the 2nd player on that line where Tkachuk is their netfront guy who goes to the tough areas on a line that creates so much.

I'm not saying hes a bust..but when I think of his linemates and team overall and factor in his average skating, along with the fact it seems like he benefits from the lack of really strong d-men in junior (its a good trait, but i dont know if he will be able to dominate like that below the hashmarks in the NHL) - I'd be a bit wary of taking him. I think he's good but maybe on another team junior team (ala Monahans 67s) he would be ranked lower and have worse stats. Maybe.

Dubois I would LOVE on this team but I dont see him dropping and I dont see the value in what it would take to move up vs whats probably going to be available at 6.

I would like to go for the player with the highest ceiling. The way I see it going Tkachuk and Dubois are gone by 6. Imo Nylander would be a great pick. His skill level is pretty high from the 3 games ive seen him play in the OHL + the WJC and some highlights. He strikes me as someone who could just be magic in the NHL. You'd have to think if he was a bit bigger (weight) and played a more physical game he would be ranked higher. I know we're a small team already but I really like Nylanders chances of converting his high skill high speed game to the NHL. Every time I've seen him I keep thinking the kids he plays with arent seeing what he's seeing. He thinks sooo fast. I dont even want to think of what he and Gaudreau would do on the same line. Yikes. Reads the game and reacts incredibly quick. He's actually a better team player with more team first instincts than his brother. From what I've seen he works hard defensively and isnt selfish like his brother was at this age. Almost as good skating as his bro. Better shot than William. Arguably the most talented player on his team. Very smart player. He's a RH RW who is born in Calgary to boot. I think the Flames will be happy to call his name at 6. I can already hear Craig Conroy raving about him

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I'd be disappointed to take Keller or Jost at #6 because we could trade down several spots and still grab those guys. I mean I get why you like those players, they are very good players and very good prospects. But the top end this year is very deep and I think Jost/Keller are outside the top 8 because of that. It's no slight on them. Jost/Keller would be guys I'd be excited to get in the teens. I have a hard time seeing them in the Flames top 8. Again, not because they aren't good prospects but because I think there's even higher upside guys ahead of them. I mean we've gotten a lot of talk on Keller but I think Jost is equally as attractive if not moreso. Redline loves both and Keller doesn't make their top 10 but Jost makes their top 8.

I think it would be a good idea to trade down at 6 if both Dubois and Tkachuk are gone by then. For me it's those five and then a group of about 9 players that are all basically comparable talent wise.

On defense

Juolevi is more of a passive defender that should be a good offensive 3/4 guy.

Chychrun has a lot of talent, but the questions about his decision making are either over blown or are on point, it's hard to tell. He has the highest level of talent of any of the D-men.

Sergachev is slightly worse than Chychrun but it's very close. If you're scared of Chychrun's question marks, then you have a close #2.

Bean is a similar guy to Brodie in all aspects.

McAvoy has a similar profile to Hanifin both in stats and overall play, but is three inches shorter than the 5th overall selection from a year ago.

Up front you have

Brown - Big Colborne type guy with more skill.

Jost and Keller - Slightly undersized guys that are extremely talented like Ehlers 2 years ago.

Nylander - A similar talent to his Bro in T.O.


There are 9 names on that list and I'd be fine getting any of them. There isn't a huge separation in talent between any of the group really, except Brown and he's further up the rankings due to size. It just depends mostly on what you're looking for. All of those D-men should become quality NHL players, just like the forwards.

If the five are gone, I'd hope that the Flames do explore trading down a few spots to get additional picks. Those additional picks can either be used directly to get someone else in the draft or to be utilized in trading for a goalie. Either way the Flames are in the drivers seat because of the fact they are picking 1st in the second tier.

It is unfortunate that the next team that has multi 1sts is Carolina at 13 (they have 21 also). I would not want to move down that far. Something like Buffalo for 8 + 38 or MTL for 9 + 39 would make a lot of sense. Could then flip either 35 or the new pick + one of the later 2nds for a mid/late 20's pick possibly.