2016 NHL Draft

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dammage79

You see I feel like you're form fitting an argument here. You've listed 3 debatable comparables in a negative light (given their flimsy history yet still found a fair amount of success as goal scorers, the knock on them for the most part was attitude and yet we've seen nothing...literally nothing about any such concerns from anyone...anywhere) for Nylander yet list 4 or 5 positive comps for Keller and 2 arguably negative comps.

It looks like you're trying to paint a player you do not prefer in as negative light as possible.

EDIT: At the end of the day, if you told me the Flames could have a Kessel or Semin or Kessel type in this draft @ 6 , I'd be giddy. We need those kind of skilled guys regardless of size.

Could be. But I've seen plenty of super skilled finesse wingers score some points, get overpaid and then not really help their team go anywhere. Wing is the least important position. IMO if you're going to draft a winger high you'd better get one that is guaranteed to be able to fight through tighter playoff checking. Otherwise you're probably better off just drafting the best centre or dman. Small players shouldn't be taken super high in the draft unless they are actually Patrick Kane. How do we know Keller will turn out better than PM Bouchard? Another super skilled tiny centre taken top 10. Small centres are risky. Briere was another one that was super, super skilled but small. Pretty good career but would you want to spend a top 6 pick on him? Probably not. In the top 6 you should be looking for those rare blends of skill, skating, size, strength and character.

What comparables would you use? Are those more realistic?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Chingas

^^ That is quite a mixed bag of players you have listed there. Not sure what you are trying to prove with that.

If we drafted a player near as good as half of the players on that list it would be considered a huge success at #6.

My point was that those players can be acquired when you are ready to compete. It's easy to find 30 goal scorers. It's easy to trade for them. It's easy to sign them as UFAs. Patrick Sharp was a 40 goal scorer recently traded as a cap dump. What do the Blackhawks have left from that trade? These goal scoring wingers are fine and dandy until you have to pay them huge. And then you realize you can't have too much money tied up in goal scoring wingers when centres and defensemen are the more important players. Which of these goal scoring wingers dragged their team to a cup?

What isn't easy to find are franchise centres, 1st line powerforwards and top 3 defensemen. So if you're drafting high you should be aiming to find that type of commodity. You might as well aim for a valuable and rare commodity. My point is that a finesse goal scoring winger like Nylander isn't necessarily a rare and valuable commodity.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Small players shouldn't be taken super high in the draft unless they are actually Patrick Kane.

Know what guys have had the highest likelyhood since Patrick Kane to be Patrick Kane? Mitch Marner, John Tavares, Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, and Clayton Keller. Because they are pretty much the only guys to put up Kane-esque numbers in the same leagues as Kane at the same ages.

If we could draft Mitch Marner would you?

How do we know Keller will turn out better than PM Bouchard? Another super skilled tiny centre taken top 10. Small centres are risky.

You are reaching back to... 14 drafts ago?

Drafting and development and information in the year 2002 was nowhere near where it is today. But if we're going to pull that card, how do we know Tkachuk will turn out better than Eric Nystrom from the same draft?

Briere was another one that was super, super skilled but small. Pretty good career but would you want to spend a top 6 pick on him? Probably not.

Daniel Brierre sits at #54 all time in playoff points per game. Ahead of Jonathan Toews, Henrik Zetterberg, Anze Kopitar, and Jarome Iginla. He was the best offensive player on contending teams that went on extended playoff runs.

If we could draft Daniel Briere, I would trade #6 + #35 + #53 + #55 for that player.

In the top 6 you should be looking for those rare blends of skill, skating, size, strength and character.

...In the top 6 you should be looking for really ****ing good hockey players, not who fits a preordained profile.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Could be. But I've seen plenty of super skilled finesse wingers score some points, get overpaid and then not really help their team go anywhere. Wing is the least important position. IMO if you're going to draft a winger high you'd better get one that is guaranteed to be able to fight through tighter playoff checking. Otherwise you're probably better off just drafting the best centre or dman. Small players shouldn't be taken super high in the draft unless they are actually Patrick Kane. How do we know Keller will turn out better than PM Bouchard? Another super skilled tiny centre taken top 10. Small centres are risky. Briere was another one that was super, super skilled but small. Pretty good career but would you want to spend a top 6 pick on him? Probably not. In the top 6 you should be looking for those rare blends of skill, skating, size, strength and character.

What comparables would you use? Are those more realistic?

Personally I don't have any comparables for Nylander or Keller specifically. But Button has him as a Pavelski type. Not gospel but that seems like a fair one. LWOS and Commandant down in the farm forum has his guys comparing Nylanders style to P.Kane. Blasphemy? Maybe but I can see some similarities.

Give me a Kane type player any day of the week.

As for Keller, guy looks super skilled but I'm not on that Bandwagon. I just find it fascinating that you named 4 or 5 players in comparison for Keller that the Flames would kill to have and yet picked the blackest sheep of players for Nylander. I'm calling a bias is all. Even between the two players you seem to want no part of.

[Chingas]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

My point was that those players can be acquired when you are ready to compete. It's easy to find 30 goal scorers. It's easy to trade for them. It's easy to sign them as UFAs. Patrick Sharp was a 40 goal scorer recently traded as a cap dump. What do the Blackhawks have left from that trade? These goal scoring wingers are fine and dandy until you have to pay them huge. And then you realize you can't have too much money tied up in goal scoring wingers when centres and defensemen are the more important players. Which of these goal scoring wingers dragged their team to a cup?

What isn't easy to find are franchise centres, 1st line powerforwards and top 3 defensemen. So if you're drafting high you should be aiming to find that type of commodity. You might as well aim for a valuable and rare commodity. My point is that a finesse goal scoring winger like Nylander isn't necessarily a rare and valuable commodity.

They may not be as rare but they are definitly valuable. If the concern is that someone might be so good that you will have to pay for their services later, then I am not sure what end game you are acutally after. Not drafting someone for fear of the end result of their success seems odd to me.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I said finesse goal scoring wingers who can score 30 goals. Not top 30 scorers. The top 30 scorers are going to include 1st line powerforwards like Benn which I included as one of my rare, valuable and hard to find commodities. The top 30 scorers is going to include big, top two line centres and franchise centres which are included in my rare, valuable and hard to find commodities.

30 goal scoring wingers who have been traded or who have hit UFA include
Cammalleri, Semin, Sharp, Iginla, Nash, Heatley, Kovalchuk, Setoguchi, Chris Clark, Michael Ryder, Svatos, Clarkson, Anson Carter, Burrows, Selanne, Boyes, Grabner, Cheechoo, Michalek, Jussi Jokinen, Samuelsson, Bertuzzi, Amonte, Jagr

I mean we could go on and on and on. Frankly that list should scare people. The number of guys on that list that dropped off the planet is scary. The number of them who rode the coattails of a good centre is scary. Basically this list goes to show why wing is the least important position in the NHL. A good centre can make a mediocre player a 30 goal scoring winger.

iggy, nash, heatley, kovalchuk, bertuzzi fall into your definition of a power forward, not a finesse forward.

additionally, that's just a grab bag of names there, that qualify as "30 goal scorers" only through the most optimistic of eyes... Chris Clark? a thirty goal scorer? sure, he scored thirty one year, but that hardly fits the definition of a 'thirty goal scorer'. same with Carter, Svatos, Clarkson, Grabner, Burrows, michalek, jussi jokinen, samuelsson...

i guess that makes Hudler a "top 10 scorer" in the NHL too? Aberrations don't make a guy into a 30 goal scorer by the definition that most hockey people use it as.

in fact, if we strip out UFA signings, which you appended to your original post, there's not an awful lot of 30 goal scorers that actually get traded in their prime... There's a reason why players, even actual 30 goal scorers, get traded post apex: they become diminishing returns.

that's no way to build a team as we discovered in our own dark years.

[iloveicedhockey]

You lost me at 'Washington arguably don't have a number 1 d-man'. Carlson is an absolute stud.

I have a sneaky feeling that Dubois or tkachuk falls to us, otherwise I'm happy with taking whomever the scouts think the BPA is, even if it means dropping down. Now, would I be more excited if we took a skilled forward? Absolutely. It's nice to speculate on how they might turn out to be x, y, or z type players, and how those skills will fit in the team. However if we pick a D guy then so be it, that means we have a potential second tier of great d who'll develop together.

[GranteedEV]

What isn't easy to find are franchise centres, 1st line powerforwards and top 3 defensemen.

How are first line power forwards not easy to find? Going by your loose definition of "power forwards" let's see how teams acquired theirs:

The St. Louis Blues drafted David Backes in the 2nd round.

The St. Louis Blues traded Lee Stempniak (lol) for Alex Steen.

The Boston Bruins traded 15th overall and Dennis Wideman (lol) for Nathan Horton.

The Boston Bruins drafted Milan Lucic in the 2nd round.

The L.A. Kings traded 14th overall + a goalie who wanted out anyways for Lucic. Who was a cap dump for the Bruins.

The Chicago Black Hawks drafted Brandon Saad in the second round.

The Chicago Black Hawks drafted Dustin Byfuglien in the eighth round.

The Jets/Thrashers traded #24 OA and #54 OA for Dustin Byfuglien

The Jets/Thrashers traded Rich Peverley and Boris Valabik for Blake Wheeler

The Jets/Thrashers traded a 2nd round pick for Andrew Ladd.

The Chicago Black Hawks draft Troy Brouwer in the seventh round.

The Washington Capitals traded #26 OA for Troy Brouwer.

The Columbus Blue Jackets traded Marko Dano (a Klimchuk type pick from 2013) and Anisimov (who is not even Backlund-tier IMHO) for Brandon Saad.

The Sharks signed Joel Ward in UFA.

The Leafs traded Luke Schenn (lol) for James van Riemsdyk

so....Let's not put so-called power forwards on the same tier as #1Cs and top pair D. Unlike the former they aren't almost exclusive to the top ~10 draft picks, and unlike the latter they don't dictate whether a team is a playoff team or not and rarely if ever hit free agency.

If History tells us anything, we are gonna flip Klimchuk, Frolik, and Wotherspoon for Mark Stone because that's how randomly valued so-called power forwards are. In fact most of them don't even develop into dominant NHL forces until their second team or third... having great scouts who can identify budding power forwards seems to be more important than finding them early in the first round. Sure there's the occasional Dustin Brown. But they are the exceptions unlike #1 centres.

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Patrick Sharp was a 40 goal scorer recently traded as a cap dump. What do the Blackhawks have left from that trade?

What exactly do they have left from the Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien, Nick Leddy, Brandon Saad, Troy Brouwer, Brian Campbell Trades? That's power forwards, top 3 defensemen, and top 3 defensemen who are also power forwards.

The Hawks dump great players of all sorts every year. Sharp was around for all three of their cups so to call him just an ordinary cap dump is disingenuous as he was a beast.

We need to draft talent not fit a profile. We've been seemingly burned every time we try to draft to fit a profile (Irving, Chucko, Pelech, Smith, Kanzig) and we've come away with good players when we draft for skill and hockey sense (Ferland, Backlund, Brodie, Gaudreau). Maybe in this top 6 there's no wrong choice available but there's still better choices. Looking to 2015, I'd rather have Connor over Zacha or Meier. Looking to 2014 I'd rather have W. Nylander over Reinhart, Dal Colle, Ritchie, Virtanen. Looking to 2013 I'd rather have Drouin than Lindholm or Nurse. Sometimes the most skilled player isn't the BPA but if he is, you take him and worry about the roster profiling after.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Know what guys have had the highest likelyhood since Patrick Kane to be Patrick Kane? Mitch Marner and Clayton Keller. Because they are pretty much the only guys to put up Kane-esque numbers in the same leagues as Kane at the same ages.

If we could draft Mitch Marner would you?

Frankly I think I'd rather have Tkachuk. But I wouldn't hate adding a Marner.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

You are reaching back to... 14 drafts ago?

Well the list of tiny centres taken top 10 isn't a particularly long one. PM Bouchard is one of the few. If history is any indication Keller may fall out of the top 10 this year.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Drafting and development and information in the year 2002 was nowhere near where it is today. But if we're going to pull that card, how do we know Tkachuk will turn out better than Eric Nystrom from the same draft?

Well Tkachuk's point totals are on a completely different level than Nystrom. And from having watched both their skill levels are not even close to comparable.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Daniel Brierre sits at #54 all time in playoff points per game. Ahead of Jonathan Toews, Henrik Zetterberg, Anze Kopitar, and Jarome Iginla. He was the best offensive player on contending teams that went on extended playoff runs.

If we could draft Daniel Briere, I would trade #6 + #35 + #53 + #55 for that player.

To each their own I guess.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dammage79

As for Keller, guy looks super skilled but I'm not on that Bandwagon. I just find it fascinating that you named 4 or 5 players in comparison for Keller that the Flames would kill to have and yet picked the blackest sheep of players for Nylander. I'm calling a bias is all. Even between the two players you seem to want no part of.

I am most definitely biased away from finesse euro style wingers. Give me a less skilled but more powerful winger any day of the week. I mean I don't hide my biases, you guys have read enough of my opinion to know that I love powerforwards way more than Nylander type players. I will freely admit I'm biased against that type of player. I remember the Semin draft year, I actually wanted him back then for pure skill and for a while he looked like a great pick. I remember watching uber talented guys like Kovalev in the NHL. I don't see how comparing Nylander to Kovalev is a "black sheep" comparison. IMO if Nylander ends up as a Kovalev then you got exactly what was described. Kovalev was one of the most skilled players in the NHL during his time. I think Kovalev is Nylander's upside. If you like that type of player then Nylander is your guy. If you're not a Kovalev fan then maybe Nylander shouldn't be your guy because IMO they are very similar types of players.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Chingas

They may not be as rare but they are definitly valuable. If the concern is that someone might be so good that you will have to pay for their services later, then I am not sure what end game you are acutally after. Not drafting someone for fear of the end result of their success seems odd to me.

Well in a salary cap era you can only spend so much on key players. And I think history has shown us that if you spend a large percentage of your cap on a goal scoring winger then you are going to struggle to fill out the rest of your team.

I think Kessel in TOR was a good example of this. You draft him. He scores 40 goals. You have to pay him 8 million+. But in the cap world its hard to win with Kessel eating up that much of your cap space playing the least important position in the league. I'd much rather be paying an elite centre that much or an elite d-man that much because they are more valuable towards winning.

Other teams/players that struggled to compete? CBJ with Rick Nash as their highest paid player as a goal scoring winger. CGY with Jarome Iginla as our highest paid player and a goal scoring winger. ATL with Heatley/Kovalchuk. OTT with Heatley. WSH with Ovechkin.

I'm skeptical you can win with a goal scoring winger eating up the biggest chunk of your cap. Wing is the least important position. A goal scoring winger doesn't make his line mates better as much as a playmaking franchise centre does. And a goal scoring winger doesn't help you win as much as a franchise d-man does. Look at how a mediocre EDM team was dragged to the cup by Pronger. Look at Pronger/Niedermayer in ANA. Look at Lidstrom in DET.

Anyways this discussion got kind of off track. I was trying to prove that goal scoring wingers can be found in trade/UFA and aren't the most valuable commodities for winning. Maybe I didn't explain it clearly.

The bottom line for this draft is that if there are potential franchise centres or top pairing d-men available then I definitely take them over a soft, finesse goal scoring winger. So to me Nylander isn't one of the top 8-9 most attractive players in this draft.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Frankly I think I'd rather have Tkachuk. But I wouldn't hate adding a Marner.



Well the list of tiny centres taken top 10 isn't a particularly long one. PM Bouchard is one of the few. If history is any indication Keller may fall out of the top 10 this year.



Well Tkachuk's point totals are on a completely different level than Nystrom. And from having watched both their skill levels are not even close to comparable.



To each their own I guess.

Joe Sakic was taken 15th overall. Played at 190 his whole career. Steve Yzerman was taken 4th overall. Same thing.

It's not the size, it's how you use it. Who are the players with elite skills and vision? Draft them.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

iggy, nash, heatley, kovalchuk, bertuzzi fall into your definition of a power forward, not a finesse forward.

additionally, that's just a grab bag of names there, that qualify as "30 goal scorers" only through the most optimistic of eyes... Chris Clark? a thirty goal scorer? sure, he scored thirty one year, but that hardly fits the definition of a 'thirty goal scorer'. same with Carter, Svatos, Clarkson, Grabner, Burrows, michalek, jussi jokinen, samuelsson...

i guess that makes Hudler a "top 10 scorer" in the NHL too? Aberrations don't make a guy into a 30 goal scorer by the definition that most hockey people use it as.

in fact, if we strip out UFA signings, which you appended to your original post, there's not an awful lot of 30 goal scorers that actually get traded in their prime... There's a reason why players, even actual 30 goal scorers, get traded post apex: they become diminishing returns.

that's no way to build a team as we discovered in our own dark years.

I guess I didn't explain my point well at all.

Part of what that list shows is that wingers aren't really that valuable. You can stick some scrub on Joe Thornton's wing and he can score 30-50 goals and be out of the NHL within a few years (Cheechoo, Setoguchi). What's the point? That the real commodity you should be looking to draft is Joe Thornton, not a goal scoring winger. Cause Joe Thornton in his prime can probably turn Joe Colborne into a 30 goal winger and Ferland into a 20 goal winger. Suddenly you don't have a winger problem. Should SJ be praised for drafting Cheechoo and him turning into a 50 goal winger? Or Setoguchi as a 30 goal winger? Or Milan Michalek as a 30 goal winger? Or maybe they just should have drafted d-men and big centres looking for the real valuable commodities. SJ should be praised for finding Vlasic in the 2nd round. That guy has and is contributing more to their success than Cheecho, Setoguchi or Michalek (all former 1st round wingers). I love Pavelski. I love the pick of Couture. But frankly in retrospect you have to say the picks of Cheechoo, Setoguchi and Michalek were less inspired. You'd much rather have Ryan Suter or Ryan Getzlaf than Michalek. Taking a winger high is questionable to me unless they possess that Jamie Benn type upside.

My point is that you should be trying to find your H. Sedin because it appears you can stick random wingers there (Carter, Vrbata, Burrows) and have your franchise centre turn them into 30 goal scorers.

In this sense we're actually set up well as I think Monahan and Bennett can be our franchise centres. I think they may be able to make their wingers better. They may turn guys like Colborne and Ferland into 20-30 goal scorers. We've got Gaudreau as an elite winger. We may not need much more than that because our centres are so good. And we may not be able to afford to have another high paying goal scoring winger due to cap constraints.

Another thing I was trying to illustrate is that if you have the cap space you can add a former 30-40 goal scorer through trade and not even have to pay a king's ransom. Neal, Sharp and Kessel have moved in the past few years with two of them as cap dumps. So why draft and develop a goal scoring winger if you can just trade for one? Why draft and develop a goal scoring winger if you're going to be forced to cap dump him ala Kessel. Maybe it's better to draft trying to get franchise centres or top 3 dmen because its so hard to trade for those. Maybe NSH has it right just drafting the best d-man every single time and then trading for a James Neal.

I don't know if that explains a few of the points I was trying to make more clearly or not. Goal scoring wingers IMO should be the last priority. The core and base of a successful team is built through goaltending, defense and centre. If you have those then you can plug in a variety of wingers with success. Wing is the least important position and I think its dangerous to overpay your goal scoring wingers and build around them. Another one of my points is that you can acquire goal scoring wingers quite easily as cap dumps or at the trade deadline. What you cannot acquire easily is franchise centres and top 3 defensemen, those are more important to becoming a contender.

Bringing it back to this draft I don't consider Nylander as a goal scoring winger to be one of the most valuable commodities available. I'd rather look for a franchise centre or a top 3 dman. Therefore Brown, Sergachev, Juolevi and Chychrun all bump Nylander down for me.

[Da_Chief]

With the way NHL is moving, the emphasis will be on IQ and skill, size will be an added bonus.

With the speed and equipment available, you cannot play the PF game over an 82 game season. Heck, Ferland lasted one round last year, before he broke.

Blues are the only heavy team in the final four. It would be nice to have players like Benn but those are hard to come by. How much of PF is Tkachuk? from what I've seen he's like a 1/4 of what his dad was.

That's why I'm leaning towards Keller but will be happy with any of Dubois, Tkachuk, Nylander, 3 D, or Brown.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

How are first line power forwards not easy to find? Going by your loose definition of "power forwards" let's see how teams acquired theirs:

The St. Louis Blues drafted David Backes in the 2nd round.

The St. Louis Blues traded Lee Stempniak (lol) for Alex Steen.

The Boston Bruins traded 15th overall and Dennis Wideman (lol) for Nathan Horton.

The Boston Bruins drafted Milan Lucic in the 2nd round.

The L.A. Kings traded 14th overall + a goalie who wanted out anyways for Lucic. Who was a cap dump for the Bruins.

The Chicago Black Hawks drafted Brandon Saad in the second round.

The Chicago Black Hawks drafted Dustin Byfuglien in the eighth round.

The Jets/Thrashers traded #24 OA and #54 OA for Dustin Byfuglien

The Jets/Thrashers traded Rich Peverley and Boris Valabik for Blake Wheeler

The Jets/Thrashers traded a 2nd round pick for Andrew Ladd.

The Chicago Black Hawks draft Troy Brouwer in the seventh round.

The Washington Capitals traded #26 OA for Troy Brouwer.

The Columbus Blue Jackets traded Marko Dano (a Klimchuk type pick from 2013) and Anisimov (who is not even Backlund-tier IMHO) for Brandon Saad.

The Sharks signed Joel Ward in UFA.

The Leafs traded Luke Schenn (lol) for James van Riemsdyk

so....Let's not put so-called power forwards on the same tier as #1Cs and top pair D. Unlike the former they aren't almost exclusive to the top ~10 draft picks, and unlike the latter they don't dictate whether a team is a playoff team or not and rarely if ever hit free agency.

Good list, that's fair. I'm not sure I'd consider Saad or Steen powerforwards per se. Brouwer to me is a secondary power forward, not a 1st line power forward. Perhaps I overrate powerforwards slightly but they are pretty hard to find. Lucic only became available because of Boston's cap hell and the number of suitors was limited due to his contract. I think if Lucic was shopped in a non-cap NHL the offers for him would've been insane. And if Lucic was only making 4 million and the Bruins shopped him I think the offers would've been insane. His cap hit and his impending UFA status the next summer definitely hurt his trade value. It's nearly impossible to trade for a Lucic in his prime, a Benn in his prime, a healthy Gary Roberts in his prime, a Keith Tkachuk is his prime. I do maintain they are a quite valuable commodity and very hard to find.

One thing I'll take issue with that pointing to an example of finding someone in the later rounds and saying that proves they aren't hard to find. Gaudreau and Brodie don't prove that you can find elite talent easily in the 4th round any more than Backes, Lucic and Benn prove that you can easily find powerforwards later. All the above are exceptional picks. The vast majority of the players taken outside the top two rounds are busts. Some powerforwards were found luckily later but that doesn't mean they aren't valuable or hard to find. It's easiest to find a skilled, fast power forward in the top 15 because NHL teams don't let them fall any further than that. Even questionable ones go that high (see Zach Kassian.)

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

What exactly do they have left from the Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien, Nick Leddy, Brandon Saad, Troy Brouwer, Brian Campbell Trades? That's power forwards, top 3 defensemen, and top 3 defensemen who are also power forwards.

The Hawks dump great players of all sorts every year. Sharp was around for all three of their cups so to call him just an ordinary cap dump is disingenuous as he was a beast.

Well the point I was trying to make was that players like Sharp are available. You can find goal scoring wingers through trade and sometimes they don't even cost much if you have the cap space to fit them in. My point was more about how little DAL paid, not how little CHI received. If you can trade for 30 goal scoring wingers with ease but you can't trade for franchise centres/d-men with ease then you should be drafting franchise centres and top 3 dmen ahead of goal scoring wingers at every opportunity. That was what I was trying to get at but I can tell from the responses that I did not explain my thought process clearly. Why should we draft a goal scoring winger top 10 if there are potential franchise centres and top 3 dmen available and we can just pick up a 30 goal scoring winger as a cap dump?

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

We need to draft talent not fit a profile. We've been seemingly burned every time we try to draft to fit a profile (Irving, Chucko, Pelech, Smith, Kanzig) and we've come away with good players when we draft for skill and hockey sense (Ferland, Backlund, Brodie, Gaudreau). Maybe in this top 6 there's no wrong choice available but there's still better choices. Looking to 2015, I'd rather have Connor over Zacha or Meier. Looking to 2014 I'd rather have W. Nylander over Reinhart, Dal Colle, Ritchie, Virtanen. Looking to 2013 I'd rather have Drouin than Lindholm or Nurse. Sometimes the most skilled player isn't the BPA but if he is, you take him and worry about the roster profiling after.

What we need to draft is rare and valuable commodities because in the end Treliving can trade good assets for whatever we lack. My point is that potential franchise centres and potential top 3 dmen are among the most valuable commodities so I'd rather draft them than a goal scoring winger (Nylander).

Drouin was considered in the top tier of his draft. I would've been ecstatic to land him although I preferred the top tier centres (MacKinnon and Barkov) and potential top pairing dman (Jones.) I believe you can search back for my personal listing back then and I had MacKinnon 1, Barkov 2 and Jones 3 for the Flames. Too early to write off Lindholm and Nurse IMO, I think both still have huge potential.

IMO Keller isn't going to be one of the BPA when we pick. I think if he was comparable to a Drouin type he'd be ranked much higher by the scouts. I think he'll be BPA somewhere in the early teens. When I watch his highlights it doesn't impress me nearly as much as a Drouin or a Kane. I don't see him having the elite, elite upside that they had.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

Blues are the only heavy team in the final four. It would be nice to have players like Benn but those are hard to come by. How much of PF is Tkachuk? from what I've seen he's like a 1/4 of what his dad was.

Depends how you define it. Had the chance to watch a full game of Tkachuk's last night. He's a power forward in the sense that he wins board battles, he's always crashing the net, he's always looking to screen the goalie. If you consider a power forward someone who throws huge hits every chance he gets and fights a lot then that's not necessarily his game. But he is very strong, protects the puck well and has a real greasy, grindy style around the net. Combine that with excellent puck handling, hockey IQ, vision and finishing.

If we wanna remove the preconceived notions around the word power forward then think about it like this. Tkachuk is a skilled forward with good strength who plays gritty behind the net, in front of the net and all around the net. He's highly skilled but does all the dirty work on his line.

As far as comparing him to his Dad I think Matthew is far more offensively skilled overall. His puck handling and playmaking are far better than his Dad's. He might not be quite as mean and physical overall but he'll shove you right back.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Joe Sakic was taken 15th overall. Played at 190 his whole career. Steve Yzerman was taken 4th overall. Same thing.

It's not the size, it's how you use it. Who are the players with elite skills and vision? Draft them.

Again just from having watched Keller at the U18s I'm not sure he'll ever be as big or as strong as Yzerman or Sakic, he just looked so tiny out there. Maybe it was an illusion. Maybe he'll grow more. I know his height/weight stats but when I saw him the first time I thought he looked closer in size to Gaudreau than some of the other players we're talking about.

I'm very curious what his combine height/weight will be. I'd be curious to know what teams think about his frame and how much they think he can fill out. For now I'm putting him in the tiny player category which drops him for me.

If I thought he would fill out to 5'11, 195 I'd have him a lot higher.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Keller's skill, I would argue, is more useful overall than Logan Brown's combo of size/skill. He's a potential PPG player at his peak. The team needs to get bigger and stronger, but not at the expense of high end talent like Clayton Keller.

If you have Monahan-Gaudreau and Bennett-Keller, you don't need to find their 3rd wheels at the top of the 1st round. You need a couple of Chris Kunitz types who can go to the net and keep up. That's what free agency and trades are for.

The players that really don't come available are players with elite game changing talent. Logan Brown may be a fine NHL player. But his ceiling's not Keller's.

To be honest, I would be fine with the Flames drafting Keller. As I stated, I do think the Flames definitely have the room for a dynamic scoring top 6 player that is undersized. I also much prefer Keller over Nylander, as Keller seems to push the pace way more. Nylander doesn't have that non-stop motor, and Keller (and Jost, who I also really love, seem to have it).

With that being said, how do you know that Keller's offensive ceiling is higher than Brown's? The point I am trying to illustrate here is that Brown has a much wider 'arsenal' that can potentially translate to the NHL.

For instance, if you watch Brown enough, he can actually dazzle you with some moves, and he has really impressive vision and can thread the needle on his passes. Keller is definitely better at the 'dazzling moves' portion, but I don't think he is all that much better at the passing - if so, I would call it a negligible increase.

I love Keller's anticipation both in the offensive and defensive zones - I think he does well in stealing pucks. Brown does that well too, only he has a gigantic wingspan and has the body to help separate the player from the puck on top of it. Brown is also known for being a good defensive player. That helps a team out a lot. They both would (and again, I think they both are MUCH better in this regard than Nylander).

Shooting - Keller will get the points here, but I think Brown has an EXTREMELY underrated shot. I mentioned it in a few other posts, but I think he is actually one of the best prospects available at getting pucks behind goalies from in-tight. His release is quick, hard and accurate. He finds that loose puck from a rebound or a scrum in front of the net, and it just goes past the goalie so quickly. Again, I don't think Keller is ahead of Brown right now even in goal scoring, especially if you look back at Brown's second half. Was his first half a bit of a struggle? Was he over-passing the puck? I don't know, but in his second half, he was an absolute monster and I think he pretty much shut-up criticisms that were being passed around about his ability to score goals.

Keller won't be the type to contribute much from the cycle, while Brown looks like he will turn into an absolute beast in along the boards, while still be an extremely good playmaker in open ice as well. Not as dynamic as Keller, but many scouts are saying Brown is one of the best playmakers in the draft - that is saying a lot.

Keller has more explosive speed, and the all-important first step is better. That first step is HUGE in the NHL. For instance, Keegan Kanzig is probably the fastest skater in the Flames' organization (you would be shocked). What holds him back is his agility and his first step. That is why I am still 'hopeful and optimistic' Kanzig will amount to a really important depth piece - those things can be worked on well, but there is no guarantee that they end up being fixed. Keller is REALLY strong in that area. Brown has very good top speed, and his agility and first step I would actually call 'average' - not a hindrance, but definitely not the strength of Keller. That means Keller will be able to find the open areas more easily, or evade checkers more easily.

Brown can still get to lose pucks well, and then you factor in his reach. Watching Jankowski using his reach in the NCAA in the last couple of years, and you start to really see how important guys who have that are. You have guys on the PP like Gaudreau that just control the play with their stick-work, speed and agility, and then you have guys who are just as productive but they control the puck with their reach and body. When you look at Jagr on the powerplay, you realize he is just as valuable as a Gaudreau - but in a totally different way.

Keller is WAY more shifty and elusive - that does take a different kind of defender to contain. A 'Brooks Orpik type' or a 'Scott Hannan' type will get eaten alive by Keller. However, a puck-mover will get eaten alive in the corners by someone like Brown.

What I am trying to illustrate is the different strengths that these players possess. They are both excellent playmakers, they both have excellent vision. Neither one of them are 'one-trick' ponies. I do think they both have top-line ceilings. Who will get more points in the NHL? I will agree that Keller right now probably has a bit more of the offensive acumen, but Brown has much more versatility.

When I look at the Flames, I see that adding Brown creates a different dynamic to the team and allows a coach to match lines more effectively by having players that are completely different, but who are bona fide top 6 forwards.

I 100% agree that Keller-Bennett would be a great addition to Gaudreau-Monahan, and recognize that indeed that would in itself make it more difficult for teams to match-up against Calgary in terms of "Which line do you try and stop?".

With that being said, adding someone like Brown also does the same thing, but with the added caveat that not only does a team worry about which line to stop, but they have to ensure they have a different strategy to stop a different line. It makes line-matching against the Flames harder to do.

That is really the point I am trying to make. I do think that people see Brown and think: "Lower offensive ceiling". I thought that too initially. The more you see him, the more you start understanding that he is extremely versatile, plays a 200ft game already, and has incredible vision and playmaking skills now. Add another 20-30lbs to his frame (I will be really, really surprised if he doesn't fill-out to 240 - that is only 23 more lbs right now, and he looks skinny to me - wouldn't surprise me if he hit the 250 mark actually judging by his physique) would make him a pure beast in the corners, but a beast that can also pass the puck really well, and has a really nice quick release. He will be able to not only dig the puck out of the corners, but then turn around and make a good play with it.

You simply are going to be extremely hard-pressed to find that type of player in the 2nd round to help the top 6 with. Impossible? Of course not - you find top pairing defencemen, centers, wingers of all shapes and sizes throughout the draft, including small ones like Keller - but it very difficult to do.

I won't be upset with Keller being drafted. Nylander is dropping like a rock in my standings while Keller moved up, but I just can't see Keller displacing Brown in my own meaningless rankings just because I think Brown will offer the team much more versatility and utility, while not being much less (if at all) of an offensive talent. I think they will both be game-breakers.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

When I watch his highlights it doesn't impress me nearly as much as a Drouin or a Kane. I don't see him having the elite, elite upside that they had.

His "highlights" are limited to what, a single U18 tourny and a spatter of early season games? From what I remember Drouin's draft year highlights were the best of the best from every draft year game he played. We don't have such a video of Keller so it's hardly apples-to-apples. And again, Kane was almost a year older during his draft year. There's a lot of skills development that can still happen.

Even just from the U18 Highlights video, the full stop-up at 0:16, the total misdirection at 0:51, the ridiculous vision and tape-to-tape pass at 1:04, the ability to burst full-speed, fall down, and use his core strength to jump right back up into a power stride at 5:14, and the find from Wayne Gretzky's Office at 7:22 are all extremely high-end. IMO.

I also think Keller's two-way game and battle don't show in the highlight videos like they did in the U18 games. He's almost as feisty as Jost IMHO and I would think to draft Jost for his feistyness alone.

[Vinny01]

with Gaudreau and Mangipane would the flames use a top 10 pick on another small winger? Haven't watched Keller but if he is thst good then maybe it is worth it. Rather have Tkachuk but notnsure he will be there at 6