2016 NHL Draft

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Didn't Kane/Panarin just get bounced in the first round of the playoffs? We made it further last year than Chicago did this year. Shouldn't the Flames be aspiring to be something better than that? Maybe having elite small forwards doesn't necessarily make you a better contender in the playoffs?

Why did Chicago fail this year? Arguably it was lack of defensive depth. NSH, STL, SJ, these teams all have elite defense cores. Why did Dallas fail this year? Arguably defensive depth and goaltending. The two highest scoring teams in the league are out of the playoffs (DAL/WSH). WSH arguably lacks a true #1 dman. The strategy of outscoring everyone else in the playoffs seems to fail every year.

Anyways just some food for thought. Perhaps we're underrating the importance of defensemen and overrating the importance of wingers. Maybe the Flames should be looking to draft the top defenseman this year? I dunno.

Defensive depth is not our key concern - realistically, you can only have big money tied up on 3 guys on defense. We have Gio, Brodie, and Hamilton, so we're set on that front. Hamilton could be better, but the Flames problem is not a lack of high end defensemen.

The next three guys need to make about a million bucks each. The bottom pairing needs to make as much money as Deryk Engelland. Between Nakladal, Wotherspoon, Kevin, Andersson, Kylington, Hickey, Kulak, Rafikov, Olas-Mattsson + whoever else we add this year, finding two or three guys who can play 16-18 minutes a night should be doable.

Kane and Panarin were not the reason Chicago didn't advance - they lost a game 7 against a really good Blues team a year after winning a championship. It'll happen. They lost to Vancouver once, too.

Tampa Bay is now into it's second year of shredding the playoffs with nothing but small skill forwards. If Bishop isn't playing on one leg and Tyler Johnson is able to take faceoffs, that final could have gone a different way.

Depth players can't be small. You don't see a lot of championship teams overloaded with Paul Byron types. The best forwards are not historically larger men.

Of the top 10 scorers in the NHL this year, only 3 of 10 are listed at over 200 lbs - Benn, Thornton and Wheeler.

Of the top 10 scorers all time, there are only 2 players who are listed over 220 lbs - Lemieux and Jagr.

Elite giant players simply don't happen all that often in hockey. And I don't see Logan Brown being the exception.

The safer bet is actually to take the 5 ft 11 kid who will eventually play at 190-195 with all-world skill because 'you can't teach size' is an indictment, not a strength. Anyone can be big. It's much rarer to find guys who can do what Keller and Nylander can.

[Chingas]

Is there any comparisons that can be made between Nylander and Nick Backstrom? The latter is a center but other than that at the time of the draft he was roughly the same size and had some question marks about his shot and skating. I look at Nylander and I love his exposive first step his shot and quite apparent hockey sense.

Is the fact that he appears to be open in all of his highlights a reason to dislike him because he isn't mucking it up or should we be praising it for his great ability to be in the right spot.

One thing that I can't get a grasp on is how easy he is to knock off the puck. I know that most would like a more physical winger but if he can protect the puck and isn't easy to knock down he sure looks like the obvious choice at number 6.

You can't teach intelligence, and he appears to have it in spades.

[oldschoolcalgary]

add 24 year Jyrki Jokipakka to the dman ranks...he didn't look out of place at all as a 4-5 dman either...

defense isn't a problem right now.

we do need to sign nakladal however. Just a cannon on the PP

[Fire of the Phoenix]

I am warming up to the idea of drafting Nylander. I think he might end up being just the player we need, even if many here don't agree. Just need two meaty power forwards to complete our duos on line one and two.

Gaudreau-Monahan-???
???-Bennett-Nylander

??? Only need to be 40-50 point guys that can muck in the corners and elbow people in their faces

[GranteedEV]

I'm not seeing it in Nylander. He reminds me of a Teravainen type prospect. Those are guys you draft in the teens.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

I don't think anyone is underestimating the importance of dmen.

With the acquisition of Hamilton and drafting of Anderson and kylington last year, the flames basically used their top 5 picks on defense.

So, there isn't any high end forwards on the farm. Shinkaruk has potential...but Janko doesn't strike me as a top 6 offensive threat at this point in his development.

Jankowski definitely does have top 6 potential. As does Shinkaruk. As does Poirier. Those are 3 first round picked forwards. We also spent a first rounder on Klimchuk (though I think most would agree he probably doesn't project as a top two liner.) We've got Mangiapane as well.

Contrast that to Kylington, Wotherspoon, Andersson as 2nd rounders and Hickey in the 3rd.

Seems like a pretty good balance and in fact the forwards on our farm are actually higher draft picks. To suggest we have good depth on defense and weak depth up front seems a bit of a misrepresentation to me.

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

So, who's left? Johnny and Sean? Bennett is pencilled in as that, but we don't actually know... Are Colborne and Backlund expected to reproduce career highs? Do people think they have a chance of exceeding them?

Doesn't look like very much game breaking talent at all in that top group

How many "game breakers" do we need? How many game breakers do competitive teams typically have? How many can they afford? How many game breakers do STL, SJ, TB and PIT have?

IMO Gaudreau, Monahan and Bennett will all end up as elite forwards. We've got Frolik, Colborne and Ferland to round some things out. So we need 1 more game breaker and 1 more complimentary player? And we've got three 1st rounders on the farm already? And one of those holes may be filled through UFA/trade? We don't really have that many holes long term up front IMO

I wouldn't mind one more game breaker of the right type. I think our lack of them is overstated. We did outscore TB, STL and LA this year and no I don't think its because we played a high risk offensive style that the next coach will stifle.

Interesting discussions.

[GreenLantern2814]

Look at Brown, Nylander and Keller side by side.

Spoiler!

Spoiler!

Spoiler!

Button calls Keller 'magic'. The more magicians, the merrier.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I'm not seeing it in Nylander. He reminds me of a Teravainen type prospect. Those are guys you draft in the teens.

Teravainen with an elite shot would be a sight to behold IMO. His problem is that he is a small, pure finesse forward with little else to his game. I'm not sure you can describe Nylander quite like that, he's got at least some gumption to his game albeit not as much as you would want. And dat shot, wow... do we ever need some of that.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Jankowski definitely does have top 6 potential. As does Shinkaruk. As does Poirier. Those are 3 first round picked forwards. We also spent a first rounder on Klimchuk (though I think most would agree he probably doesn't project as a top two liner.) We've got Mangiapane as well.

Contrast that to Kylington, Wotherspoon, Andersson as 2nd rounders and Hickey in the 3rd.

Seems like a pretty good balance and in fact the forwards on our farm are actually higher draft picks. To suggest we have good depth on defense and weak depth up front seems a bit of a misrepresentation to me.



How many "game breakers" do we need? How many game breakers do competitive teams typically have? How many can they afford? How many game breakers do STL, SJ, TB and PIT have?

IMO Gaudreau, Monahan and Bennett will all end up as elite forwards. I think Ferland probably ends up as a complimentary power forward on one of those lines. So we need 1 more game breaker and 1 more complimentary player? And we've got three 1st rounders on the farm already? And one of those holes may be filled through UFA/trade?

I wouldn't mind one more game breaker of the right type. I think our lack of them is overstated. We did outscore TB, STL and LA this year and no I don't think its because we played a high risk offensive style that the next coach will stifle.

Interesting discussions.

Janko hasn't shown that however. People might not believe in NCAA equivalency projections, however until he logs more time in the AHL that is the only metric with substance that we have. Poirer hasn't impressed me with his call ups to the big squad; he wasn't even the team's "go to" for call ups - that belonged to Granlund. Magianpane has potential for sure, as does shinkaruk for top 6...

not sure what a player's drafted position has to do with prospect quality or depth? Brodie and Gio weren't number 1s either. Neither was Johnny.

Our defensive prospects in our system at this time are both deeper and have much more upside than any of the forwards on the farm, IMO...

Not going to argue the point ad infinitum - you have your opinion and I have mine. We can simply wait and watch and see who develops to what level, and undoubtedly this topic will be rehashed next draft year, so we'll see where the D prospects stand in relation to Forward prospects in a year's time

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

The safer bet is actually to take the 5 ft 11 kid who will eventually play at 190-195 with all-world skill because 'you can't teach size' is an indictment, not a strength. Anyone can be big. It's much rarer to find guys who can do what Keller and Nylander can.

I don't think its rare to find finesse goal scoring wingers. They are easily available in trade. The list of 30 goal scoring wingers that have been traded is far bigger than the list of top pairing defensemen that have been traded. Wing is the least important position in the league. It's hard to trade high scoring wingers for elite defensemen or centres. Ask the Oilers!

The 3 most valuable commodities to me:
1) Top 3 D-men
2) 1st line power wingers
3) Top 2 line centres with size.

To me Nylander and Keller don't fit in that list. To me they aren't rare commodities and may not end up that valuable.

What type of player is Nylander? A Kovalev type? A Kessel type? A Semin type? Those aren't that hard to trade for. Often you end up having to overpay them because of offensive numbers in comparison to what they are actually worth on the ice. Which means they can hurt your overall cap situation.

What type of players is Keller? A Briere type? A Ribeiro type? A Desharnais type? A Hudler type? Ennis? Cammalleri? Gionta? Again, not the most valuable type of player.

I don't buy that this type of player is rare, nor are they that valuable. Getting a skilled 1st liner with size like a Benn, that is rare. Getting a top pairing d-man is rare and valuable. Super skilled undersized forwards aren't that rare or valuable. Finesse goal scoring wingers aren't that rare or valuable.

Just my opinion of course.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

How many "game breakers" do we need? How many game breakers do competitive teams typically have? How many can they afford? How many game breakers do STL, SJ, TB and PIT have?

I would say teams need four gamebreaking forwards plus a gamebreaking offensive D. Now sometimes you have ridiculously elite forwards who are worth more than one gamebreaker (Crosby/Malkin) and sometimes you have a pair of good but not great forwards who are almost worth a gamebreaker but these kind of pairs are tough to keep together in a cap world.

Crosby
Malkin
Kessel
Letang

Thornton
Pavelski
Couture
Marleau
Burns

Tarasenko
Schwartz
(Stastny+Fabbri as a pair)
(Backes+Steen as a pair)
Shattenkirk

Johnson
Palat
Kucherov
Drouin
(and Stamkos)
Hedman

Right now, we have

Gaudreau as a forward gamebreaker.
Giordano as an offensive D gamebreaker
We are hoping Bennett and Monahan become gamebreakers.
Which means we still need one more forward - IF everything else falls neatly into place which it has not yet.

IMO you draft a potential gamebreaker every time there's one available. You never know what's gonna happen. Filling out the rest of the roster is still important but finding gamebreakers is the most difficult part because they're not easily found in trades. You even could acquire Milan Lucic or such if you're willing to pay the price, but Bergerons and Krejcis are what's untouchable. You can acquire Joel Ward in UFA. These are secondary pieces that you still need. But they are not your gamebreakers, they are the guys who allow your gamebreakers options outside their repertoire. We don't have a full complliment of gamebreakers.

Doesn't mean you want to build the OIlers, that's just idiotic roster construction, but they do have more proven forward gamebreakers at present (Hall + McDavid) than we do right now, and McDavid like Crosby is almost worth 1.5 gamebreakers. Even if we get Monahan to take that next step to get us to two, they add Draisaitl to get to three-point-five. Which means if that mess of an RNH+Eberle combo can be flipped for a defenseman, they could pull ahead of us in their rebuild.

We need to add a forward gamebreaker if there's one available. We also need Sam Bennett to become one. That's how far away we are from San Jose and co. Doesn't matter how many goals we scored, you need to be able to generate chances in succession, one line after the next.

I think Pierre-Luc Dubois has potential to develop into a Hossa type. Maybe I'm just optimistic, but I can see it. Not that good (Hossa is a HoFer), but that type. I feel the same way about Keller as a Doug Gilmour type. The upside is there in Brown but there is downside too. We can't draft with the idea that we have "enough scoring" as that's a dangerous, 2006-esque attitude. You can surround skill with everything else internally. Everything else can't surround itself.

[FlamesNation23]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I don't think its rare to find finesse goal scoring wingers. They are easily available in trade. The list of 30 goal scoring wingers that have been traded is far bigger than the list of top pairing defensemen that have been traded. Wing is the least important position in the league. It's hard to trade high scoring wingers for elite defensemen or centres. Ask the Oilers!

The 3 most valuable commodities to me:
1) Top 3 D-men
2) 1st line power wingers
3) Top 2 line centres with size.

To me Nylander and Keller don't fit in that list. To me they aren't rare commodities and may not end up that valuable.

What type of player is Nylander? A Kovalev type? A Kessel type? A Semin type? Those aren't that hard to trade for. Often you end up having to overpay them because of offensive numbers in comparison to what they are actually worth on the ice.

What type of players is Keller? A Briere type? A Ribeiro type? A Desharnais type? A Hudler type? Ennis? Cammalleri? Gionta? Again, not the most valuable type of player.

I don't buy that this type of player is rare, nor are they that valuable. Getting a skilled 1st liner with size like a Benn, that is rare. Getting a top pairing d-man is rare and valuable. Super skilled undersized forwards aren't that rare or valuable. Finesse goal scoring wingers aren't that rare or valuable.

Just my opinion of course.

Thats a fair statement, but we are building the core of our team and if we can add a skilled forward that can play on the first or second line, it only helps strengthen our core plus we dont have to trade any valuable assets in a trade to get them. I think if you can get a skilled player to add to your core, I think you pull the trigger instead of gambling on a higher risk prospect like Brown.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

https://www.omnycontent.com/w/player...-a5bc010933fc#

Scroll down to May 11, segment 4.

Interesting interview on Oilers Now with the Coach of the Erie Otters, Kris Knoblaugh. Stafford grills him about the various draft eligibles and what he thought about them from an opposing coach viewpoint. Tkachuk, Juolevi, Chychrun, Sergachev, Nylander, McLeod, etc.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Also interesting from that above link is the Chiarelli interview. I don't know if many heard it but you can scroll down and listen to it. Skip to the 7 minute mark.

Basically sounds like the Oilers list from 4-9 includes Tkachuk, Dubois, Brown and 3 d-men. Interesting that we haven't heard Benning or Chiarelli mention Nylander at all. Neither mentioned Keller. Both have mentioned Tkachuk, Dubois, Brown and 2-3 dmen.

Doesn't seem unreasonable those are the players in consideration for the Flames as well.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I don't think its rare to find finesse goal scoring wingers. They are easily available in trade. The list of 30 goal scoring wingers that have been traded is far bigger than the list of top pairing defensemen that have been traded. Wing is the least important position in the league. It's hard to trade high scoring wingers for elite defensemen or centres. Ask the Oilers!

not sure about that... on the list of top 30 scorers, i see 3 guys that were actually traded for

spezza - contract issue, asked for trade
jagr - who was a UFA signing
seguin - had a lot of off ice issues
wheeler - who underperformed in Bos scoring 45, 38 in his first two seasons and 27 in 58 games in his last year with Boston

Filip Forsberg was traded without even stepping onto the ice for Washington.

Easily is a bit of a mis-characterization.

edit: ^^^ Maybe Edmonton with draft Brown, and all of this discussion is moot!

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Also interesting from that above link is the Chiarelli interview. I don't know if many heard it but you can scroll down and listen to it. Skip to the 7 minute mark.

Basically sounds like the Oilers list from 4-9 includes Tkachuk, Dubois, Brown and 3 d-men. Interesting that we haven't heard Benning or Chiarelli mention Nylander at all. Neither mentioned Keller. Both have mentioned Tkachuk, Dubois, Brown and 2-3 dmen.

Doesn't seem unreasonable those are the players in consideration for the Flames as well.

Whoa there haha. Let's not start lowering the Flames scouting staff to that of the Oilers. Those are blasphemous assumptions to make! For Shame!

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

What type of player is Nylander? A Kovalev type? A Kessel type? A Semin type? Those aren't that hard to trade for. Often you end up having to overpay them because of offensive numbers in comparison to what they are actually worth on the ice. Which means they can hurt your overall cap situation.

What type of players is Keller? A Briere type? A Ribeiro type? A Desharnais type? A Hudler type? Ennis? Cammalleri? Gionta? Again, not the most valuable type of player.

You see I feel like you're form fitting an argument here. You've listed 3 debatable comparables in a negative light (given their flimsy history yet still found a fair amount of success as goal scorers, the knock on them for the most part was attitude and yet we've seen nothing...literally nothing about any such concerns from anyone...anywhere) for Nylander yet list 4 or 5 positive comps for Keller and 2 arguably negative comps.

It looks like you're trying to paint a player you do not prefer in as negative light as possible.

EDIT: At the end of the day, if you told me the Flames could have a Kessel or Semin or Kessel type in this draft @ 6 , I'd be giddy. We need those kind of skilled guys regardless of size.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

not sure about that... on the list of top 30 scorers, i see 3 guys that were actually traded for

spezza - contract issue, asked for trade
jagr - who was a UFA signing
seguin - had a lot of off ice issues
wheeler - who underperformed in Bos scoring 45, 38 in his first two seasons and 27 in 58 games in his last year with Boston

Filip Forsberg was traded without even stepping onto the ice for Washington.

Easily is a bit of a mis-characterization.

I said finesse goal scoring wingers who can score 30 goals. Not top 30 scorers. The top 30 scorers are going to include 1st line powerforwards like Benn which I included as one of my rare, valuable and hard to find commodities. The top 30 scorers is going to include big, top two line centres and franchise centres which are included in my rare, valuable and hard to find commodities.

30 goal scoring wingers who have been traded or who have hit UFA include
Cammalleri, Semin, Sharp, Iginla, Nash, Heatley, Kovalchuk, Setoguchi, Chris Clark, Michael Ryder, Svatos, Clarkson, Anson Carter, Burrows, Selanne, Boyes, Grabner, Cheechoo, Michalek, Jussi Jokinen, Samuelsson, Bertuzzi, Amonte, Jagr

I mean we could go on and on and on. Frankly that list should scare people. The number of guys on that list that dropped off the planet is scary. The number of them who rode the coattails of a good centre is scary. Basically this list goes to show why wing is the least important position in the NHL. A good centre can make a mediocre player a 30 goal scoring winger.

[Chingas]

^^ That is quite a mixed bag of players you have listed there. Not sure what you are trying to prove with that.

If we drafted a player near as good as half of the players on that list it would be considered a huge success at #6.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

https://www.omnycontent.com/w/player...-a5bc010933fc#

Scroll down to May 11, segment 4.

Interesting interview on Oilers Now with the Coach of the Erie Otters, Kris Knoblaugh. Stafford grills him about the various draft eligibles and what he thought about them from an opposing coach viewpoint. Tkachuk, Juolevi, Chychrun, Sergachev, Nylander, McLeod, etc.

Gave the Missisauga kids some really good compliments. Loved McLeod.
Calls Nylander Dynamic and Extremely fast.
McLeod is big 6'3 and one of the fastest skaters and impressed him most.