Sanders has also cut Clinton's lead to just 12 points in NY in the latest Quinnipiac poll from the 29th. This is astounding since she was up 48 points at the beginning of the month. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/pol...16_N39pgrw.pdf
Seems to be a momentum shift happening in both Wisconsin and New York for the Democratic race...
I think this just shows how irrelevant polling really is for a general right now, but PublicPolicyPolling had a national come out today showing Kasich beats both Hillary and Bernie in a general. So yeah....not sure what you take from that other than everyone likes Kasich because he's not Trump or Cruz.
Well he is the least well known candidate. I think more than anything it reflects the hope people have that the "unknown" is bound to be a better choice than the other choices. In effect, it may reflect people's general unhappiness with the more familiar candidates.
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Sanders has also cut Clinton's lead to just 12 points in NY in the latest Quinnipiac poll from the 29th. This is astounding since she was up 48 points at the beginning of the month. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/pol...16_N39pgrw.pdf
Seems to be a momentum shift happening in both Wisconsin and New York for the Democratic race...
While great news, Saunders needs the majority of the delegates left in order to win. Hopefully the trend keeps going.
Well he is the least well known candidate. I think more than anything it reflects the hope people have that the "unknown" is bound to be a better choice than the other choices. In effect, it may reflect people's general unhappiness with the more familiar candidates.
Of course, which is why Kasich has by far the lowest negative approval rating of anyone in the race. Like Bernie is seen as being a pretty favorably viewed candidate, but in the latest CNN/ORC he's at 43% unfavorable; Kasich meanwhile...is at 31% unfavorable. For a Republican that's simply shocking to see such a low number. But Bernie and Kasich still have the ringer to go through, which is why their perspective general numbers are meaningless right now.
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Already at least 100 delegates are talking about abandoning Trump after the first ballot, and Cruz is whipping him at getting loyal delegates at state-level conventions. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/0...cramble-221443
Combine that with polls that don't have Trump doing great anywhere other than NYC, and it looks strongly like Trump limps into the convention with well under a majority, and gets defeated once the ballot opens up.
What Texas has done, in regards to abortion providers, is require them to meet certain standards and criteria, which effectively shuts them down.
Some of the required criteria and standards, such as requiring the performing doctor to have admitting privileges at a nearby hospital, may have some merit. Others, such as mandating the minimum width of a hallway, likely do not.
Do you want to know what you don't need admitting privileges for? Anything related to child birth. Do you know which the mortality rate is higher for Child birth or abortions?
The law is about restricting access. Much like voter ID laws are about voter suppression. They sound like rational arguments on the surface but are designed to disenfranchise people.
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One positive of Cruz being the nominee is that Dems will get to hammer the guy who has basically led the charge to undermine any action in Congress.
The law is about restricting access. Much like voter ID laws are about voter suppression. They sound like rational arguments on the surface but are designed to disenfranchise people.
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While great news, Saunders needs the majority of the delegates left in order to win. Hopefully the trend keeps going.
The media keeps on saying he's got zero chance of winning and yet they are basing all of these on polls that are all woefully out of date and acting completely unsurprised when their predictions are wrong. Pennsylvania and Maryland haven't had any polls done in two weeks and a month respectively and recent polls say he is closing the gap significantly in New York.... It looking like the long campaign is actually hurting Clinton more. Hopefully it keeps up and Sanders may not even need an indictment on Clintons part. He does have a two hundred odd delegate count to make up though with the remaining 1800 delegates.
It's sad that in aligning to knock out Trump people are paving the path for a true zealot.
There will be a moment of celebration followed by a horrifying realization.
I don't disagree that Cruz is probably the worst of the bunch. But Trump and Cruz would lose in a general election, so the actual policies of either of them aren't really that important. A general election with Trump would be an absolute circus that would probably have negative repurcussions for many election cycles. A general election with Cruz would be far more typical in tone and style, but would probably also serve to show the Tea Party just how unpopular their politics are with the rest of the country, and result in a defeat so overwhelming that it pushes the Republican Party back towards the center a bit.
I actually think that Cruz has a more legitimate chance in a general than Trump does. I find Cruz way scarier. However, you're right, I don't see either of them winning the big chair.
The media keeps on saying he's got zero chance of winning and yet they are basing all of these on polls that are all woefully out of date and acting completely unsurprised when their predictions are wrong. Pennsylvania and Maryland haven't had any polls done in two weeks and a month respectively and recent polls say he is closing the gap significantly in New York.... It looking like the long campaign is actually hurting Clinton more. Hopefully it keeps up and Sanders may not even need an indictment on Clintons part. He does have a two hundred odd delegate count to make up though with the remaining 1800 delegates.
No chance assumes zero possibility. Bernie has little to no chance. Nate breaks it down, and the path is pretty much impossible. The closed primaries are probably what doom him. Even if he wins Pennsylvania by 1 point and New York by 1 point...he still can't do it.
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The rise of the Trump and Cruz because of stupidity like this. Bernie or Hillary could cost themselves the general if they keep acting like you can avoid using the word Islam when it involves terror.
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No chance assumes zero possibility. Bernie has little to no chance. Nate breaks it down, and the path is pretty much impossible. The closed primaries are probably what doom him. Even if he wins Pennsylvania by 1 point and New York by 1 point...he still can't do it.
The entire piece is interesting, but this part specifically;
Quote:
In short, the Clinton campaign is in the midst of an historic collapse — much of it due to the unraveling of support for Clinton among nonwhite voters — and the national media has yet to take any notice.
Clinton’s 48-point lead in New York less than two weeks ago is now just a 12-point lead, according to the latest Quinnipiac Poll. That poll shows Sanders with approximately 300 percent more support among African-American voters in New York than he had in Mississippi earlier this month.
Meanwhile, in the only poll taken in Indiana, Sanders is said to be beating Clinton handily.
Sanders is leading by 8 points in West Virginia.
And the only polling done so far in Kentucky — among nearly 1,000 students at the University of Kentucky — has Sanders up on Clinton there by more than 70 points.
But what the latest Reuters polling underscores is that even Clinton’s support in the South has collapsed.
but would probably also serve to show the Tea Party just how unpopular their politics are with the rest of the country, and result in a defeat so overwhelming that it pushes the Republican Party back towards the center a bit.
How? Would the Tea Party set be less full of "Rabble! Rabble! Rabble!"? Because if they're not they'll just continue to launch primary challenges (or threaten to launch) against any republicans that don't meet their conservative litmas tests.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HotHotHeat
Can you comment on this article?
The entire piece is interesting, but this part specifically;
I'd respond by saying that in regards to the bit about New York that there hasn't been a giant fall because the 48% Clinton lead poll was wildly out of sync with every other poll of the state. If you look at the weighted average Clinton has an 18 point lead which strikes me as the most likely outcome. I haven't seen any polling in Indiana so I can't comment on that and the last poll I heard about in West Virgina had Clinton leading, and I'm not at all surprised that Sanders has a large lead among university students in Kentucky... but that's a small portion of the population (that he usually does well among) so it really doesn't matter without the rest of the population included.
Sanders is done. If I can quote myself from page 247...
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Originally Posted by Parallex
I'll give everyone a preview of the next bit of the Democratic race... For the next three weeks the media will muse about whether there is a Sanders Surge happening (he'll win or effectively tie every contest between now and April 19), then NY will happen and she'll blow him out of the water and for a week they'll muse about whether she has it locked up or if it was just a home state thing, then on the 26 he'll fall further behind as a string of closed primaries further pad her lead. Then probably even delegate hauls until June 7 at which point the media will have no choice but to stop pretending that it's been a competitive race since the SEC Super-Tuesday Primaries.
