Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Cameron Swift

I'm picturing Trudeau as Vince McMahon here.

Out of curiosity, why did Trudeau dislike Alberta?

Cause he was a complete dirtbag who thought that he was the smartest man in the room.

So farmers and people that worked in the patch weren't his type of people. He liked theorists and academics, and he really liked third world murderous dictators, he was a huge fan of Mao, and Castro, and he liked Stalin as well.

He believed that everyone but he and his close friends were too stupid to take care of themselves.

Oh and he was a complete and utter a%%.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Cameron Swift

I'm picturing Trudeau as Vince McMahon here.

Out of curiosity, why did Trudeau dislike Alberta?

Trudeau the elder was an autocrat who believed that power should have been concentrated in Ottawa. He was opposed fiercely by Peter Lougheed, who as Premier of Alberta, was a staunch defender of provincial rights. Much of what Trudeau was interested in was funneling wealth and power into central Canada to bolster his central government.

Basically, the Roman model of government. The provinces exist for the glory of Ottawa.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

There is no half measure there. Either you agree with them or you don't.

And if the feds should not invest in our oil industry, they should not be investing in clean tech either. Let both raise their own capital.

Or, perhaps invest in both, and help this country's economy.

Yeah, I wasn't very clear. I said I half-agreed with them because I don't think the feds should be paying for the pipelines but I disagree with giving money to the cleantech companies. I'd maybe consider giving them some business-friendly loans or tax credits, but I'm a pretty firm believer in making corporations pay their own way.

[jammies]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Basically, the Roman model of government. The provinces exist for the glory of Ottawa.

Also the French model, everything runs through Paris. It's not the way to run Canada, though, which is a much less homogeneous country - although France has become more French over time, as places like Brittany and Biscay had their own languages and cultures that were slowly (and deliberately) subsumed by the State.

It is ironic, though, that if the elder Trudeau had succeeded in breaking the power of the provinces, pipelines would be probably be much easier to build. The very independence that Lougheed and Lévesque fought to preserve and expand is what allows the other provinces the assumed impunity to meddle.

[SebC]

Good point:

all the Bombardier aircraft flying in the world today probably emit more carbon dioxide in a year than gets released by Albertans producing oilsands

... and yet aerospace gets a bailout, while oil gets extended environment reviews.

Colin Dornmuth for National Post

[Enoch Root]

Just a quick note on the price of oil...

There are some reasonably decent things going on right now on the technical charts. First, a pretty solid double bottom (or W if you prefer) has been established over the last few weeks. And now we are breaching the long, and well established, downward trendline that has been in place since this #### show started in the summer of 2014.

If it (light crude to be specific) can verify/hold a position north of the 34.50-34.80 range over the next day or two, look for it to then test the 37.75 low from last summer.

To be really optimistic, a breach of that would open the door for a run back up to the $50 level.

Dare to dream, Arnold. Dare to dream.

[Fuzz]

Is that based on any fundamental change in the market(decreasing supplies, increasing demand) or just chart analysis? Because if it is just pattern fitting, I'm not sure I'm ready to order double meat...

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Is that based on any fundamental change in the market(decreasing supplies, increasing demand) or just chart analysis? Because if it is just pattern fitting, I'm not sure I'm ready to order double meat...

As I stated, it is charting. Nothing more.

Personally, I have not changed my spending habits at this point.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by jammies

It is ironic, though, that if the elder Trudeau had succeeded in breaking the power of the provinces, pipelines would be probably be much easier to build. The very independence that Lougheed and Lévesque fought to preserve and expand is what allows the other provinces the assumed impunity to meddle.

Nationalized Oil would have been a raw deal for Alberta. Pipelines have been a problem for a while now, but nothing like a Petro State where transfer payments and royalties would flow to Ontario "for the benefit of all".

I do find it interesting how quiet Justin has been on the nationalist file. BC and Quebec have pitted themselves against other provinces imposing their own rules. Trudeau Sr would have probably squashed that flat. Justin hasn't said a word on Federal jurisdiction and it is getting worse. At some point he will have to step in and get the provinces in line. Hopefully he will do that with the NEB review, although I have my serious doubt.

[ranchlandsselling]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

As I stated, it is charting. Nothing more.

Personally, I have not changed my spending habits at this point.

But aren't the charts usually based on some form of fundamental underlying. I mean, people start buying because oil has reached a point where nothing is profitable so supply has to slow down, production is being curtailed etc. That makes the bottom in the chart. People see said bottom and then a bounce of that bottom and make a chart analysis, but the actual bottom was cause by what people are thinking is a fundamental change. Each bounce was caused by something (saud/russ agreeing to not increase production further), then something else (China easing reserves), etc.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

Nationalized Oil would have been a raw deal for Alberta. Pipelines have been a problem for a while now, but nothing like a Petro State where transfer payments and royalties would flow to Ontario "for the benefit of all".

I do find it interesting how quiet Justin has been on the nationalist file. BC and Quebec have pitted themselves against other provinces imposing their own rules. Trudeau Sr would have probably squashed that flat. Justin hasn't said a word on Federal jurisdiction and it is getting worse. At some point he will have to step in and get the provinces in line. Hopefully he will do that with the NEB review, although I have my serious doubt.

If Alberta and Quebec would have been in this scrap when Pet was in power, Pet would have squashed Alberta, stolen as much money as he could from it, and then sent that money straight into Quebec and Ontario's wallet.

Oh wait.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Just a quick note on the price of oil...

There are some reasonably decent things going on right now on the technical charts. First, a pretty solid double bottom (or W if you prefer) has been established over the last few weeks. And now we are breaching the long, and well established, downward trendline that has been in place since this #### show started in the summer of 2014.

If it (light crude to be specific) can verify/hold a position north of the 34.50-34.80 range over the next day or two, look for it to then test the 37.75 low from last summer.

To be really optimistic, a breach of that would open the door for a run back up to the $50 level.

Dare to dream, Arnold. Dare to dream.

I think that if we get to $37 then the worst is over. Until then though I don't think that we're out of the woods.

[CampbellsTransgressions]

US production is down the 4th or 5th week in a row, and the rig count has fallen quite substantially.

The most important question IMO is whether the banks will lend them the money needed to start drilling again.

Things are starting to look good.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by CampbellsTransgressions

US production is down the 4th or 5th week in a row, and the rig count has fallen quite substantially.

The most important question IMO is whether the banks will lend them the money needed to start drilling again.

Things are starting to look good.

Thanks Notley!

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by CampbellsTransgressions

US production is down the 4th or 5th week in a row, and the rig count has fallen quite substantially.

The most important question IMO is whether the banks will lend them the money needed to start drilling again.

Things are starting to look good.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/29/us-sh...ming-back.html


Seems US shale producers are eager to start producing if they can get to $40

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Tacopuck

Uhg this is what happens when stupid people (and I mean that in the low IQ way) vote.

Are you proposing a Geniocracy?

What is the IQ Threshold for participation? Will you make the cut?

[Tacopuck]

Originally Posted by troutman

Are you proposing a Geniocracy?

What is the IQ Threshold for participation? Will you make the cut?

It would have to be a newly developed skill testing based (traditional school testing would not be acceptable).


However once we have cost effective autonomous robotic labour (robot slaves) this will all be a moot point as economic forces will drive people who cannot intellectually provide resources into an economy out of it. This is natural selection rapidly expedited through economic forces (so actually it's artificial selection much like how humans breed dogs).

Yes I do realize this sounds inhumane, slightly genocidal and ###### up.

Basically I'm suggesting a Hunger Games like scenario minus the pageantry.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/29/us-sh...ming-back.html


Seems US shale producers are eager to start producing if they can get to $40

Then they'll crash the market again...

[MelBridgeman]

Originally Posted by CampbellsTransgressions

US production is down the 4th or 5th week in a row, and the rig count has fallen quite substantially.

The most important question IMO is whether the banks will lend them the money needed to start drilling again.

Things are starting to look good.

Just had a American DD company get their cash pulled by the Bank at the 11th hour last week! Hence layoffs at my company...

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Tacopuck

However once we have cost effective autonomous robotic labour (robot slaves) this will all be a moot point as economic forces will drive people who cannot intellectually provide resources into an economy out of it.

In a robot-driven economy there needs to be guaranteed minimum income, otherwise ownership of capital becomes an even bigger driver of wealth, and it becomes very un-meritocratic.