The New American Politics thread

[automaton 3]

Shaping up to be two lousy choices for president.

Many Americans seem so angry and fed up with the system, and cold to Hillary that the Donald might have a chance. Which is fascinating to watch, but worrisome.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Zarley

but he's bringing a lot of new and non-traditional GOP voters over to the republicans - particularly blue collar Democrats.

Proof?

Every bit of polling I've seen says that's untrue.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepo...370445491.html

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Proof?

Every bit of polling I've seen says that's untrue.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepo...370445491.html

Drumpf's polls. He has the best polls.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Nobama

blah blah blah

Hillary stands no chance. Bernie voters would rather vote trump then the criminal. Trump is bringing record voters to the polls. The turnout to the republican vote has be 40-60% higher than the democrats in the primaries. How do you think that will translate to the general election?

You mean like the election before this? And the one before? Republican primaries always have higher turnout. How did that translate again?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

You mean like the election before this? And the one before? Republican primaries always have higher turnout. How did that translate again?

In 2008, the last open primary for both (i.e. no incumbent), the Dems had over 35 million votes cast, the Republicans around 22 million. In 2000 the Dems had a presumptive nominee in Gore, so the GOP did have more turnout then however.

People need to give up acting like Trump has no chance. Just look at the tantrums Bernie supporters are throwing right now, saying they'll vote for Trump over Hillary because there's no way he can be worse and he's at least an outsider, he's not a criminal etc... Trump is absolutely a threat to win, and I'm sticking with him as a slight favorite for now.

[Zarley]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Proof?

Every bit of polling I've seen says that's untrue.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepo...370445491.html

You are mistaken - the poll you've quoted is for Wisconsin only. The limited amount of national polling on the subject does indeed suggest a trend:

Donald Trump’s Strongest Supporters: A Certain Kind of Democrat - NY Times

Poll: 20% of Dems would defect for Trump - The Hill

Amid Trump surge, nearly 20000 Mass. voters quit Democratic party - Boston Herald

A quick glance at the areas Trump has won is all that is needed to confirm the trend. His strongest support is coming from the rust belt and rural south - economically depressed areas where blue collar voters have a long history of Democratic support yet are not socially liberal.

[ernie]

One can only call Hillary a criminal for so long without charges being brought forth. She and the administration was cleared of any wrong doing concerning Benghazi by a GOP panel. The e-mail release is finished with no smoking guns. No e-mails written or received by Clinton were marked as classified or top secret at the time of transmission. So any issues are now going to have to lie in found improprieties with the Clinton foundation I'd imagine.

And really with Drumpf as a nominee I doubt the GOP really wants to go down the criminal road... Just a hunch.

I don't think Drumpf should be planning a victory parade yet for the nomination either. Even over the voting yesterday he is still maxing out in the 33% vote range. People don't like him. You have sitting Republicans saying they will just not cast a vote in November if he is the nominee. And he still has hurdles to jump. The GOP still have tactics and tricks up their sleeves that they can use. They likely have to get it to a contested convention but if they do remember that it isn't Drumpf that controls the convention but all the people who very much hate him.

Also keep in mind while the GOP may have waited too long and while he won a lot of states last night, a week or so ago the number of delegates he won last night was a worst case scenario for his team. They very much under performed to expectations they had a handful of days ago.

^^ I would suggest that the polls above may have changed significantly with his active courting of racists and continually stupid things he says. Mass may have 20000 democrats shifts but that I believe is less than 1% of the total electorate for Mass. A state that the Democrats won by 23% of the vote.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Zarley

You are mistaken - the poll you've quoted is for Wisconsin only.

Read Further...

Nor is there much sign in national polls of Trump's crossover appeal.

In a recent national poll by Fox News, Trump did slightly worse than Cruz and Rubio in drawing Democratic support (he gets about 9%). In a recent national poll by Quinnipiac, he got 8% of the Democratic vote — virtually the same as Cruz and Rubio.

In most national polls, Trump is doing worse than Cruz and Rubio when pitted against Clinton.

And in a recent Quinnipiac poll in Ohio — the most important Midwest battleground of all — Trump does no better than Cruz or Rubio against Clinton. He does a few points better than they do with Democratic voters, but 10 or 12 points worse than they do with Republican voters.

The polls have found that Donald Trump is highly unpopular among independants and historically unpopular among Democrats. Comparatively speaking he's not even that popular among Republicans (he has net favorable ratings but middling at best when compared to the other GOP candidates).

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Just look at the tantrums Bernie supporters are throwing right now, saying they'll vote for Trump over Hillary

Hillary Clinton's favorability among Democrats...

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/pollin...e-sanders.aspx

... you've got to separate the signal from the noise. The signal is that democrats would be perfectly fine with a Clinton candidacy (including Sanders supporters). The democratic contest has actually been pretty cordial... moreso then in 2008 IMO.

[Fuzz]

So if Trump wins the presidency, will that be good, bad, or neutral for Canada?

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

So if Trump wins the presidency, will that be good, bad, or neutral for Canada?

I'd say neutral. But only because the world will be neutralized.

[Fuzz]

Wait... if Canada is America's hat, does that mean we will be Trumps Toupee? Shudder....

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Hillary Clinton's favorability among Democrats...

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/pollin...e-sanders.aspx

... you've got to separate the signal from the noise. The signal is that democrats would be perfectly fine with a Clinton candidacy (including Sanders supporters). The democratic contest has actually been pretty cordial... moreso then in 2008 IMO.

I think my point more is most Bernie supporters are not Democrat supporters. Hillary has actually easily and by far won the vote of those who identify as "Democrat" so far in the primaries. Bernie supporters are more independents and people who probably have never been involved in the political process. Which makes how his supporters will break sort of unpredictable. Could they fall in line? Sure but of course they could also totally buck because they don't want to support "the establishment".

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Wait... if Canada is America's hat, does that mean we will be Trumps Toupee? Shudder....

./thread

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Which makes how his supporters will break sort of unpredictable. Could they fall in line? Sure but of course they could also totally buck because they don't want to support "the establishment".

I don't think it's unpredictable.

By far his biggest supporters are white liberals and the young... based on recent electoral performance those demographics (18-29 & self identified liberals) largely either vote for the democratic candidate or at worse stay home. If Trump is the nominee they'll come out... Bernie's signature issues are income inequality and the corporate plutocracy I can't imagine anyone whose against those coming out for Trump (who may as well be the poster child for same).

Clinton's coalition is basically the same coalition as Obama. If she can get it out to vote at the same level as in 2012 she'll win.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I think my point more is most Bernie supporters are not Democrat supporters. Hillary has actually easily and by far won the vote of those who identify as "Democrat" so far in the primaries. Bernie supporters are more independents and people who probably have never been involved in the political process. Which makes how his supporters will break sort of unpredictable. Could they fall in line? Sure but of course they could also totally buck because they don't want to support "the establishment".

Polls show pretty clearly though, that while liberty and leftist populism make Trump and Sanders similar, almost no one of either supporters said they were willing to support the other. Sanders supporters are not voting Trump.


Trump is not popular with Latinos, blacks or the independents. Where are his votes going to come from?

[JohnnyB]

I don't think it's over for Sanders yet. He did well enough out of super Tuesday to keep going in a long primary and he won important states yesterday. I guess he'll see more success and more valuable endorsements come his way the longer this goes.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Polls show pretty clearly though, that while liberty and leftist populism make Trump and Sanders similar, almost no one of either supporters said they were willing to support the other. Sanders supporters are not voting Trump.


Trump is not popular with Latinos, blacks or the independents. Where are his votes going to come from?

I suggested it before, but I think the silent factor in this election is going to be huge. I think many people will vote for Trump who would never admit it to pollsters, or publicly, for fear of being labeled a racist. Just look around online today, and you'll see lots of Bernie supporters saying they'll back Trump over her every day of the week. Is that all Bernie supporters? Probably not, but I do think he has a lot of supporters that can't be counted on to back Hillary later on. Maybe they don't vote at all, or maybe they spite vote for Trump. We'll see.

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

I don't think it's over for Sanders yet. He did well enough out of super Tuesday to keep going in a long primary and he won important states yesterday. I guess he'll see more success and more valuable endorsements come his way the longer this goes.

Nah, it's pretty much over. The Dems don't do Winner-Take-All states, so it's all proportional till the end. With the massive deficit Bernie has with minorities, it's very, very difficult to see him making up his current gap. He needs to start winning diverse states by probably close to 2:1, but that seems extremely unlikely. Hillary also should dominate the March 15 states which are delegate heavy. His best hope is Hillary melts down or gets indicted. Otherwise he needs a miracle, especially since turnout numbers are quite down for Dems.

Like for fun, Hillary dominated Texas, and that gap was so huge she won more net delegates from Texas than Bernie did from every state he won yesterday.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I suggested it before, but I think the silent factor in this election is going to be huge. I think many people will vote for Trump who would never admit it to pollsters, or publicly, for fear of being labeled a racist. Just look around online today, and you'll see lots of Bernie supporters saying they'll back Trump over her every day of the week. Is that all Bernie supporters? Probably not, but I do think he has a lot of supporters that can't be counted on to back Hillary later on. Maybe they don't vote at all, or maybe they spite vote for Trump. We'll see.

Careful with that though. You're suspecting anecdotal online support has a real effect here, but it's unquantifiable and likely to be noise. There was plenty of Clinton or Romney vitriol too

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I suggested it before, but I think the silent factor in this election is going to be huge. I think many people will vote for Trump who would never admit it to pollsters, or publicly, for fear of being labeled a racist. Just look around online today, and you'll see lots of Bernie supporters saying they'll back Trump over her every day of the week. Is that all Bernie supporters? Probably not, but I do think he has a lot of supporters that can't be counted on to back Hillary later on. Maybe they don't vote at all, or maybe they spite vote for Trump. We'll see.



Nah, it's pretty much over. The Dems don't do Winner-Take-All states, so it's all proportional till the end. With the massive deficit Bernie has with minorities, it's very, very difficult to see him making up his current gap. He needs to start winning diverse states by probably close to 2:1, but that seems extremely unlikely. Hillary also should dominate the March 15 states which are delegate heavy. His best hope is Hillary melts down or gets indicted. Otherwise he needs a miracle, especially since turnout numbers are quite down for Dems.

I think there are many voters that will say they are voting for Trump but won't in private, Trump is essentially a joke candidate, he's the Flying Spaghetti Monster party for yanks. He has no policies, I think there's a difference between sticking it to the party and actually wanting him in charge.

[troutman]

Delegate Counts - still plenty of time for change in either campaign.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate_count.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate_count.html