You do realize it started out with 17 Nominee's right? anything over 20% is huge. Trump winning the last 2 states in double digits is massive and if he wins 50-0 delegates tonight... it is pretty much unheard of this early. NI don't think anyone has ever lost the GOP after winning NH and SC.
True, but in national polling of 1 to 1's with Trump Vs Cruz and Trump Vs Rubio, the non-trump candidates won by 16%. That pretty much means if it narrows to three people if you're talking a more socially conservative state, then Cruz will likely win or it'll be close and it if it's a more progressive state then Rubio will be either first or a close 2nd.
It may just be enough for Trump not to get to the amount needed to win outright.
All of the states between now and March 12th are proportional's unless you get over 50% + 1 in some of them. With three legit candidates, nobody will get 40% in any of those ones. After that it's winner takes all. If the other two can keep it relatively close between the three of them it'll be an interesting finish. If one of them drops out at that point, which is also possible then those winner take all become even more crazy.
Of those states, 1046 delegates are up for grabs. With them likely splitting them roughly evenly it'll be fun. Trump will likely have 500ish delegates, with Cruz and Rubio both being in the 350-400 range due to splits. The winner needs over 1280.
after the winner take all states start, you have Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, Washington, New Mexico being possible Rubio's Missouri, North Carolina, New York, Pennsylvania, California, New Jersey being likely Trumps, and Arizona, Utah, Indiana, Oregon, South Dakota, Montana being possible Cruz. Those are guessimates because there isn't any polling there yet because they are far off. If that is how it would break down, Trump would be at 1000-1100 with both Cruz and Rubio being in the 750 ish range. None of them would hit the 1280 mark.
Trump is the favourite, but I want anyone but him being the nominee.
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True, but in national polling of 1 to 1's with Trump Vs Cruz and Trump Vs Rubio, the non-trump candidates won by 16%. That pretty much means if it narrows to three people if you're talking a more socially conservative state, then Cruz will likely win or it'll be close and it if it's a more progressive state then Rubio will be either first or a close 2nd.
It may just be enough for Trump not to get to the amount needed to win outright.
All of the states between now and March 12th are proportional's unless you get over 50% + 1 in some of them. With three legit candidates, nobody will get 40% in any of those ones. After that it's winner takes all. If the other two can keep it relatively close between the three of them it'll be an interesting finish. If one of them drops out at that point, which is also possible then those winner take all become even more crazy.
Of those states, 1046 delegates are up for grabs. With them likely splitting them roughly evenly it'll be fun. Trump will likely have 500ish delegates, with Cruz and Rubio both being in the 350-400 range due to splits. The winner needs over 1280.
after the winner take all states start, you have Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, Washington, New Mexico being possible Rubio's Missouri, North Carolina, New York, Pennsylvania, California, New Jersey being likely Trumps, and Arizona, Utah, Indiana, Oregon, South Dakota, Montana being possible Cruz. Those are guessimates because there isn't any polling there yet because they are far off. If that is how it would break down, Trump would be at 1000-1100 with both Cruz and Rubio being in the 750 ish range. None of them would hit the 1280 mark.
Trump is the favourite, but I want anyone but him being the nominee.
Ya but... if an candidate endorse another candidate, don't they get their delegates?
Why is no one talking about this? This could be a reason why Trump can't win. Or am I totally off?
I may not be right but if one candidates drops out, they can endorse another but that doesnt mean the delegates HAVE to move. More like they become free agents.
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Ya but... if an candidate endorse another candidate, don't they get their delegates?
Why is no one talking about this? This could be a reason why Trump can't win. Or am I totally off?
I don't believe that's the way it works. Once a candidate drops out, their delegates go to the convention unbound. They may feel they should vote for the candidate's endorsement, but they're under no obligation to do so.
In fact, in the republican primaries, the delegates are appointed from a state list of delegates, and are not chosen by the candidates. So they may vote for their own preference once their bound candidate drops out. They can even vote for their own preference in the second round of a contested convention, even if their bound candidate is still in!
edit:
Actually, there's a lot of state-to-state variation here. I just learned that in South Carolina, if the candidate you're bound to drops out, then you're bound to the 2nd place candidate in your district (or in the state, if you're at large). So, in the unlikely event that Trump withdraws (or slightly more likely event of a tragic escalator mishap), all those at large delegates would go to Rubio. But it's still a free-for-all after the first round of the convention.
And some states do use candidate lists, including New Hampshire. But it's less common on the Republican side.
I also attempted to read through the rules for North Dakota (whose delegates are 'unbound'). It's absolutely byzantine.
Further edit:
And you know what? Some states (Like Nevada) actually say that if a candidate drops out, that candidate can require Nevada delegates bound to them to vote for a specific other candidate still in the race.
It's basically 50 totally different processes (or I guess 100, if you're counting both parties).
Another edit (WHAT AM I DOING READING REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RULES AT 12:30 ON A SATURDAY NIGHT? I DON'T KNOW BUT I CAN'T STOP!!):
So something that I didn't realize before: you hear a lot of talk about winner take all states. But at least on the Republican sides, they're unlikely to play out as winner take all any time soon. Because many have a winner-take-all threshold, which must be at least 50%. However, there's also a back-door-winner-take-all scenario in most of these states, where there's a threshold that candidates must clear to be eligible. So, for example, In Alabama, Trump would need to clear 50% to win all their at large delegates. Or, he would need every other candidate to finish under 20%. So if Trump, Cruz, and Rubio are all in this for the long haul, that means it's going to be very hard for any candidate to hit those 50% or higher thresholds. The more I read, the more it looks like a contested convention is going to be the outcome of all this, unless Rubio collapses.
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. The more I read, the more it looks like a contested convention is going to be the outcome of all this, unless Rubio collapses.
The PoliSci nerd in me really wants this to happen.
I think Hillary won the nomination tonight. The delegate Math is gonna be tough for Sanders... he really needed a win tonight to demonstrate that his coalition was broad enough. Clinton will handily win SC then walk into Super Tuesday with wins in 3 of 4 and demographic advantages in many of the Super Tuesday states.
I don't believe that's the way it works. Once a candidate drops out, their delegates go to the convention unbound. They may feel they should vote for the candidate's endorsement, but they're under no obligation to do so.
In fact, in the republican primaries, the delegates are appointed from a state list of delegates, and are not chosen by the candidates. So they may vote for their own preference once their bound candidate drops out. They can even vote for their own preference in the second round of a contested convention, even if their bound candidate is still in!
edit:
Actually, there's a lot of state-to-state variation here. I just learned that in South Carolina, if the candidate you're bound to drops out, then you're bound to the 2nd place candidate in your district (or in the state, if you're at large). So, in the unlikely event that Trump withdraws (or slightly more likely event of a tragic escalator mishap), all those at large delegates would go to Rubio. But it's still a free-for-all after the first round of the convention.
And some states do use candidate lists, including New Hampshire. But it's less common on the Republican side.
I also attempted to read through the rules for North Dakota (whose delegates are 'unbound'). It's absolutely byzantine.
Further edit:
And you know what? Some states (Like Nevada) actually say that if a candidate drops out, that candidate can require Nevada delegates bound to them to vote for a specific other candidate still in the race.
It's basically 50 totally different processes (or I guess 100, if you're counting both parties).
Another edit (WHAT AM I DOING READING REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RULES AT 12:30 ON A SATURDAY NIGHT? I DON'T KNOW BUT I CAN'T STOP!!):
So something that I didn't realize before: you hear a lot of talk about winner take all states. But at least on the Republican sides, they're unlikely to play out as winner take all any time soon. Because they all have a winner-take-all threshold, which must be at least 50%. However, there's also a back-door-winner-take-all scenario in most of these states, where there's a threshold that candidates must clear to be eligible. So, for example, In Alabama, Trump would need to clear 50% to win all their at large delegates. Or, he would need every other candidate to finish under 20%. So if Trump, Cruz, and Rubio are all in this for the long haul, that means it's going to be very hard for any candidate to hit those 50% or higher thresholds. The more I read, the more it looks like a contested convention is going to be the outcome of all this, unless Rubio collapses.
Thanks for that.
I think it still shows there is somewhat of a chance of delegates being sent to trumps competitors if someone drops out, and as he is only getting ~35% of the vote, I would have thought the media would be on this.
I think you could reasonably conclude the majority of Kasich and Bush supporters will eventually go to Rubio, and the majority of Carson supporters to Trump. That puts them both at around 40% with Trump slightly ahead. So it will probably come down to how the Cruz supporters break, but also when Cruz gets out, to see if Rubio can eventually beat Trump. If Cruz is still in this after March 15, Rubio might not have the chance to win over enough voters, but Rubio also would obviously prefer Trump pushes Cruz out by going after him so he can maybe get the Cruz supporters in turn. Bookies odds right now are 50% Trump, 40% Rubio and 10% other, and that seems about right.
Also, Glenn Beck has decided to go on a fast in support of Ted Cruz. Sure, why not try and make his supporters look more sane?
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I think you could reasonably conclude the majority of Kasich and Bush supporters will eventually go to Rubio, and the majority of Carson supporters to Trump. That puts them both at around 40% with Trump slightly ahead. So it will probably come down to how the Cruz supporters break, but also when Cruz gets out, to see if Rubio can eventually beat Trump. If Cruz is still in this after March 15, Rubio might not have the chance to win over enough voters, but Rubio also would obviously prefer Trump pushes Cruz out by going after him so he can maybe get the Cruz supporters in turn. Bookies odds right now are 50% Trump, 40% Rubio and 10% other, and that seems about right.
Also, Glenn Beck has decided to go on a fast in support of Ted Cruz. Sure, why not try and make his supporters look more sane?
Yeah, the timing of when people drop out is really important. I assume that Trump is going to hit the necessary popular votes to earn delegates in every state. But for Rubio and Cruz, Kasich and Carson still in the race may be the difference between 19% and 21% in some states and cost them delegates.
I'm not sure exactly what Kasich's end game is, but lets say it was to negotiate his way into a VP or cabinet post. I could see a scenario where he sticks it out to March 15 and tries to win Ohio's winner take all 66 delegates. These delegates are pledged (not bound), but they are a slate picked by the winner. So he's got a roster of people loyal to him then. When he gets the favour that he wants from Rubio, he then instructs his people to support Rubio at the RNC, and shuts down his campaign.
It's a dangerous game though, there's a serious risk of splitting the vote and handing all 66 delegates to Trump. From what I can tell, there hasn't been an Ohio poll since about September, but at the time Trump was polling at about 22%, which is significantly below many other places at the time. But I've got no idea who wins Ohio in a Trump/Kasich/Cruz/Rubio race. It could be close to a 4 way split.
Carson could have a similar plan in mind, but he's unlikely to ever get to a point where his delegates are worth making a deal for. There's a chance he withdraws after March 1, but I don't think that the field winnows further until after the 15th.
I'm not sure what Carson's plan is or if he even has one. I figured he'd be out before Bush.
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I think it still shows there is somewhat of a chance of delegates being sent to trumps competitors if someone drops out, and as he is only getting ~35% of the vote, I would have thought the media would be on this.
I believe this was one of the things covered in Trump's agreement not to run as an independent. If Trump is the clear cut leader going into the convention and is not named the nominee,he can then break the agreement and run as a third party candidate.
If anyone is a numbers junkie and/or like to know how each of the primaries/caucuses work, this is a TREMENDOUS page. Its yuge, and unlike most media sites that only seem to care/understand raw vote, this breaks things down by how each state allocates delegates and explains it for each.
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