The New American Politics thread

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Not good

And Bernie is done.

[T@T]

######-bag Cruz came in 3rd and he's acting like he won, Bush comes 4th and he quits

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

And Bernie is done.

No he's not. She's apparently full of ####. The moderator asked for English and certainly no one chanted.

[nik-]

Yeah there's a video and no one says that in it, granted it's short.

It seems pretty ridiculous that Sanders supporters would suddenly go Trump. Something is fishy, but it's probably going to work anyway. Most people just read the sensational headline and never see the correction.

[Senator Clay Davis]

There's pretty much no need to make something like that up too if it is made up. Hillary should go on a long run of winning now with the demographics shifting to her advantages in upcoming races. Not sure how long Bernie can hold on without winning a race, it's not like the Republican race where Rubio can at least believe he can consolidate more support. Plus the superdelegates are a huge advantage for Hillary as long as she keeps winning, even if it's not great margins.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

There's pretty much no need to make something like that up too if it is made up. Hillary should go on a long run of winning now with the demographics shifting to her advantages in upcoming races. Not sure how long Bernie can hold on without winning a race, it's not like the Republican race where Rubio can at least believe he can consolidate more support. Plus the superdelegates are a huge advantage for Hillary as long as she keeps winning, even if it's not great margins.

Nevada was Sanders best hope to beat Clinton, the loss all but kills him in practise.

[Caged Great]

10 of the next 12 states are heavily favoured for Hillary with only Vermont and Massachusetts being in Bernie's camp. winning 12 of 15 states with the only three being neighbouring states to the other candidate means Bernie's effectively done regardless of whether that incident above happened in the manner that it did.

918 delegates are coming up in those states and only 107 count for the two states that Bernie's going to win.

Say he gets 67-40 split from those ones and Hillary gets 500-311 on the rest, you're at 1022-445 between the elected and super delegates. That's virtually impossible to overcome. Especially with 4/6 of the next states are also likely Hillary with Michigan and Maine being the others. It could be all over by the middle of March.

[nik-]

yeah, it's too bad. Hillary's presidency will be an ocean of mediocrity and status quo

[T@T]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Nevada was Sanders best hope to beat Clinton, the loss all but kills him in practise.

Why would Nevada be Bernies best hope, a month ago he was 30 points behind her in that state and he only lost by 5. Sanders hope is to build momentum and he seems to be doing just that.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I still think it's a very thin margin of error for Hillary though, so Bernie might stay in for as long as he can and just hope that she eventually makes a mistake that opens the door. But her advantage now is she can be very safe and just keep winning. Oh yeah, Jeb dropped out and Carson didn't, which confirms Ben still has more books to shill. But Jeb honestly just never seemed interested in running during his campaign. Trump is a disaster but at least he seems genuinely interested in running.

[Vulcan]

I guess S. Carolina was a winner take all as this says Trump got all 44 delegates and now leads with 61. Cruz has 11, Rubio has 10, Kasich has 5, Bush had 4 and Carson has 3.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/gr...egate-tracker/

Clinton has 502 to Sanders 70 although it doesn't break it down from the super delegates.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I still think it's a very thin margin of error for Hillary though, so Bernie might stay in for as long as he can and just hope that she eventually makes a mistake that opens the door. But her advantage now is she can be very safe and just keep winning. Oh yeah, Jeb dropped out and Carson didn't, which confirms Ben still has more books to shill. But Jeb honestly just never seemed interested in running during his campaign. Trump is a disaster but at least he seems genuinely interested in running.

Trump is a little crazy but he's far from a disaster in this election. Truth is, he's proof a lot of American people are crazy as well.

[Caged Great]

The interesting thing is that Trump hasn't cleared 35% in any of the three states. He's likely to do so in Nevada due to his presence in the casino industry. It will be interesting if it becomes a 3 person race with Rubio Cruz and Trump if they end up splitting everything three ways. If that's the case, then it may just be a convention floor mess with there being multi votes.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

10 of the next 12 states are heavily favoured for Hillary with only Vermont and Massachusetts being in Bernie's camp. winning 12 of 15 states with the only three being neighbouring states to the other candidate means Bernie's effectively done regardless of whether that incident above happened in the manner that it did.

918 delegates are coming up in those states and only 107 count for the two states that Bernie's going to win.

Say he gets 67-40 split from those ones and Hillary gets 500-311 on the rest, you're at 1022-445 between the elected and super delegates. That's virtually impossible to overcome. Especially with 4/6 of the next states are also likely Hillary with Michigan and Maine being the others. It could be all over by the middle of March.

March 1st is definitely the worst day on the calendar for Sanders, but there are winnable states there... in addition to Massachusetts, also Minnesota and Colorado, and an outside shot at Oklahoma. He just needs to be able to keep a positive narrative, because Hillary is going to wrack up some double-digit wins elsewhere. But the calendar shifts rapidly into some states where he can pick up a couple wins and hold Hillary even, and then late March and April are where he really needs to pick up ground.

Ultimately the super-delegates mean that he needs to actually win a majority of voters plus regular delegates and hope that the super-delegates will flip to his side.

Here's a 538 article on the subject. He's not quite hitting the margins he needs. But he's also not so far off as to say that he doesn't have a window to win it still. Like you say, it's not a great calendar for him right now. But to pull through this stretch he needs to keep expectations low right now, and make sure he wins a couple states on March 1st in addition to Vermont, and try to limit those double-digit losses.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

The interesting thing is that Trump hasn't cleared 35% in any of the three states. He's likely to do so in Nevada due to his presence in the casino industry. It will be interesting if it becomes a 3 person race with Rubio Cruz and Trump if they end up splitting everything three ways. If that's the case, then it may just be a convention floor mess with there being multi votes.

You do realize it started out with 17 Nominee's right? anything over 20% is huge. Trump winning the last 2 states in double digits is massive and if he wins 50-0 delegates tonight,well, game over man!... it is pretty much unheard of this early. I don't think anyone has ever lost the GOP after winning NH and SC.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by T@T

Why would Nevada be Bernies best hope, a month ago he was 30 points behind her in that state and he only lost by 5. Sanders hope is to build momentum and he seems to be doing just that.

By dropping Nevada Sanders has effectively stalled, as Hillary always had the south all but stitched up, Sanders needed to take Nevada in order to keep Hillary looking weak, as it is now we are about to hit her strongholds in the south, by the end of the week Sanders will look like he's losing and Clinton will look like she has the momentum.

Regardless of whether it's true this is likely to kill him, his candidacy is all about looking like he can win.

[T@T]

^^ I agree it looks bad but he seems to have a way to buck trends. I'm not going to write him off just yet.

[JohnnyB]

Trump crushing the GOP field may be a good thing for Bernie in the long run with how Hillary polls against Donald. If Trump becomes the runaway leader and Bernie continues to poll much better than Hillary does against Trump, Bernie may just need to hang in close to eventually pull more of the super-delegates over to his side. Also, I don't see Hillary inciting the enthusiasm in the voting base to create as much voter turn-out as Bernie would, which would be key in a run-off against Trump. There is a strong anti-establishment sentiment on both sides so far and in a Hillary vs. Trump campaign Hillary won't be the one pulling that support.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

By dropping Nevada Sanders has effectively stalled, as Hillary always had the south all but stitched up, Sanders needed to take Nevada in order to keep Hillary looking weak, as it is now we are about to hit her strongholds in the south, by the end of the week Sanders will look like he's losing and Clinton will look like she has the momentum.

Regardless of whether it's true this is likely to kill him, his candidacy is all about looking like he can win.

It creates a much worse narrative overall than he would have had, though I think the exit polls suggesting that he won the Latino vote in Nevada also provide the basis of a narrative that he has proven he can win the non-white vote. That's fairly big for Bernie even if losing Nevada is a bit of a setback.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by T@T

You do realize it started out with 17 Nominee's right? anything over 20% is huge. Trump winning the last 2 states in double digits is massive and if he wins 50-0 delegates tonight,well, game over man!... it is pretty much unheard of this early. I don't think anyone has ever lost the GOP after winning NH and SC.

and now it's down to 5 Nominee's and Trump's percentage hasn't improved. I'm not saying it won't but that may be Trump's limit.