May 2015 Provincial Election Thread v2

[Enoch Root]

Apologies for quoting an old post...

Originally Posted by cal_guy

Alberta bond yields are actually 25 to 50 basis points lower than last year for debt 5 year and under bonds. Just to show you how useless ratings agencies are for government debt, Alberta bond yields are identical to Ontario and Quebec both of which have and S&P A+ rating.

Absolute bond yields are irrelevant for assessing the impact of a ratings change.

What you need to look at is the relative change in yields between Alberta debt and other provinces. In other words, if Alberta debt was 5 bps lower than Ontario prior to the change, and is flat to Ontario after, then the impact was the 5 bps.


Your example does not show that ratings agencies are useless for government debt. What it shows is that the market - based on lots of factors, including supply, outlook, etc. - views Alberta debt as having essentially equal risk to Ontario's.

And that view is liquid. It is not the rating agency's mandate or desire to change ratings on a daily basis in a vain attempt to keep pace with minor changes in market sentiment.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

In Edmonton it was.

Too many government employees had enough with PC MLAs and Ministers throwing the bureaucrats under the bus when the contreversial decisions were made by the political staff.

It was done. The question was what party would the votes go to

Personally I don't care too much for government employee feelings.

Maybe that's just me.

But the NDP can't release a budget where the day to day operating of the bureaucracy is operating at a loss.

The wage freeze of senior level bureaucrats that they announced is being viewed as pretty cynical because in the grand scheme of things its minor and doesn't save a whole lot of money.

for the NDP to survive, they're literally going to have to throw the civil service under the bus, and that's going to be tough for them, since that's their voting base.

I would expect that there will be pressure on them to push for salary cuts, reductions in force and wage freezes for front line workers like nurses and teachers.

If they don't do this, they'll be seen as siding with the unions, and it will gut them in the long term.

Notley's going to have to have the balls to do what she instinctively will not want to do.

[LanceUppercut]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

And i'll also say this. As positive as Derek Fildebrandt is for the WR and their fundraising down south, he goes over like a lead balloon in Edmonton and the NDP just point to his tweets and his actions and smile as Edmontonians pour money into NDP accounts. Actually, lead balloon is being too polite for how he is received by the average Joe up here. Donald Trump would probably poll better.

They don't need Edmonton, all they need to do is convince most of Calgary they, not the PC's, are the answer to the union backed NDP government. They should be able to take rural Alberta and that would give them the win. If that happens, look out government union workers in Edmonton.

[jammies]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Personally I don't care too much for government employee feelings.

And this attitude is why the NDP calculates that it is better to appease their base rather than the many people in Calgary and rural Alberta that will never vote for them no matter what they do.

Business drives wealth creation, but the government provides the stable framework, the infrastructure, and the rule of law which allows modern business to exist and thrive. Contempt for the bureaucracy shows nothing more than one's obliviousness to how an advanced economy works, which isn't by some unfettered market-based libertarian cream dream, but by politics and policy as much as dollars and jobs.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by LanceUppercut

They don't need Edmonton, all they need to do is convince most of Calgary they, not the PC's, are the answer to the union backed NDP government. They should be able to take rural Alberta and that would give them the win. If that happens, look out government union workers in Edmonton.

This, incidentally, is another reason not to overstate the demise of the PCs.

If Notley continues to shoot herself in the head in Calgary and the NDP looks more and more like a failing government, what do you do in Edmonton if the PCs retain their vote share? Do you stick with Notley, or do you vote strategically and back the PCs to prevent a Wildrose government?

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by LanceUppercut

They don't need Edmonton, all they need to do is convince most of Calgary they, not the PC's, are the answer to the union backed NDP government. They should be able to take rural Alberta and that would give them the win. If that happens, look out government union workers in Edmonton.

While I agree on the principal that the WRP needing to sweep their rural base and also one of edmonton/calgary to win, the big wildcard with that is that electoral boundaries are to be reconfigured before the next election (http://www.elections.ab.ca/resources...ommission-act/). Given that the NDP are in government AND that there is a stark balance between many rural seats (some only representing ~15K people) and urban seats (some representing ~45K people), there are rumours that we'll see more urban seats and less rural seats created for the next election. There is also the possibility that we'll see a reduction in the overall number of seats, which may shift some of the balance to urban centres and away from rural alberta.

[temple5]

A Reduction in seats? That would be a first for any modern democracy. Redistribution of seats from Rural to urban is more likely but that at the most means the seat count would remain the same. There is something to be said about 20% of the land area of your province being represented by 1 MLA.

I find it hard to believe this thread is still alive 8 months later. Nothing is changing for at least 3 more years so people just need to deal with the current situation. If oil prices recover by the time the NDP release their "election" budget then they will likely win a second term.

If they dont go higher than the 50s and the NDP havent curtailed spending in some meaningful way (total government spending in 2019 is lower than 2015) then they will lose.

If the total electricity bill per person goes up 10-20pct because of the carbon taxes (I know I am scanning and keeping a few Enmax bills for comparison purposes) that will create an unknown as to which party can better spin that issue.

I still think the best chance the NDP of repeating is to institute a 5% sales tax to add ~5B in revenue and spin it with 500mil in tax savings measure for lower income. I think everyone can see that the "Alberta Advantage" gig is up and was only propped up by revenue that shouldnt have been used in the first place.

Keep income tax rates flat or only slight modification for the high end bracket.

[CaptainCrunch]

I disagree, if they implement a 5% sales tax right now, after adjusting the tax rates to a progressive from a flat tax, you will see a extremely angry province. Especially if they don't do any meaningful cuts to their budget.

I would agree that if the carbon tax spirals up utility bills and other cost of living expenses, they will get decimated at the next election.

This upcoming budget is going to be really interesting, and will be a litmus test for the mood of this province.

[MelBridgeman]

the carbon tax is already a PST in disguise....

so ya if they add in a PST - final nail

[CaptainCrunch]

You can't tax your way out of a economic slide like this without addressing your spending issues.

You can't go to a population that seeing massive job losses and pay cuts and tell them to give more if your not willing to tighten your spending belt.

The taxpayer pockets aren't some mythical bottomless pit of money that the government can continually draw on and then throw into a black hole of spending.

[Resolute 14]

Even a 2% sales tax would crush the NDP. That is why Notley went with the so-called "NDPST" carbon tax system. Same thing, easier to sell people on.

And this hasn't been an election thread lately so much as a general Alberta government thread.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

You can't tax your way out of a economic slide like this without addressing your spending issues.

You can't go to a population that seeing massive job losses and pay cuts and tell them to give more if your not willing to tighten your spending belt.

The taxpayer pockets aren't some mythical bottomless pit of money that the government can continually draw on and then throw into a black hole of spending.

Especially when other industries are doing their best to adapt while public services see no meaningful changes and are still clamouring for more money and getting it.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Even a 2% sales tax would crush the NDP. That is why Notley went with the so-called "NDPST" carbon tax system. Same thing, easier to sell people on.

And this hasn't been an election thread lately so much as a general Alberta government thread.

If the carbon tax was actually taxed into a account specifically made for green initiatives or it was funneled back to the tax payers in rewards for example it would be one thing.

but the Carbon tax is going straight to general budget which makes it a tax with a fancy name.

[Resolute 14]

Yup. I was honestly embarrassed for Notley when she was trying to pass this cash grab off as being "revenue neutral".

[Jacks]

There were some runours about Jason Kenney being courted to take over the PC Party. If that happens I could see a merger with the WRP happening pretty easily. Without the vote split between the two parties they would win by a landslide even without most of Edm. If they try to tough it out the best they can probably hope for is a minority.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Yup. I was honestly embarrassed for Notley when she was trying to pass this cash grab off as being "revenue neutral".

If there is one thing that I've learned about the NDP is that it's "neutral" if I spend/blow it all.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Brad Ferguson has been a really interesting leader in Edmonton for the last 3 years, and delivered a whale of a speech last week.

The speaking notes http://www.eedc.ca/impact/2016-keynote/

If you think I am up here blaming our current provincial government, you’re wrong. They inherited 10 years of drunken-sailor euphoria that came after the Klein years, which was the last time we made hard decisions about size of government, debt repayment and government program spending.

We, in this room, didn’t do our job over the past 10 years of euphoria and we didn’t hold our government to account. Government spending increased at twice the rate of population growth plus inflation which has created an unsustainable cost structure and a culture of dependence on program spending. We watched our net assets deteriorate and we never once forced the discussion on a revenue framework that protected us from a downturn in energy prices. This is a lesson to all Albertans, that today we would be suffering the consequences regardless of the party in power.

But there is a party in power, and our new government now needs to manage this province with astuteness and precision. It doesn’t matter what political ideology was campaigned on, our government has a responsibility to steward this province forward for the best interest of Albertans and future Albertans. As I see it, they have a choice: to govern from ideology that risks temptation to follow Ontario into a financial vortex of despair; or, to govern from the centre and implement fiscal and economic policies that will require patience from their supporters, but achieves a balance between economic reforms and economic growth. That is what leadership is all about, and it is a requirement of the job.

John F. Kennedy once said, “Let us not seek the Republican answer or the Democratic answer, but the right answer. Let us not seek to fix the blame for the past. Let us accept our own responsibility for the future.”

One thing being a parent has taught me, is that when you have responsibility for the next generation you abandon your right to be reckless. Pursuing economic growth without economic reform was reckless over the past 10 years. Pursuing economic reforms without economic growth would be equally as reckless in the years ahead. It is critical we get the balance right, or the consequences will echo for generations.

I started this address talking about my kids and our proud history in this province. I used words like rugged and resilient, hard work, determination and courage, triumph over hardship. Yet over the past six months we’ve been made to feel ashamed of our history, the embarrassing cousin that no one wants to talk about, the outlier among provinces.

[Mr.Coffee]

^ good post but I wish at the last paragraph along the lines of hard work and resilient yadda yadda yadda he added incredibly lucky that we were bestowed with a highly valuable natural resource that's economic benefits should not be squandered.

Let's face it, Albertans are more lucky than hard working. Not to say people here are not hard working, but it's mostly luck. Slam away, but one of the worst qualities of Albertans is all the back patting we do, when, especially at times like this- we really have squandered most of our good fortune.

But the gist of that article is bang on, the PC's screwed this up for so many years. Not much of what's going on really should be attributed to the NDP government. I was talking to some folks today at the office (I work at a producer), ever single one of us agreed that at the end of the day, it's price that is driving this downturn. Not royalties, not regulations, not any of the other "uncertainty" stuff... price. Let's not forget how badly the PC's and their corrupt, moronic, selfish, arrogant ways really drove us into this situation.

[Resolute 14]

God I hate the "we're just lucky to have a valuable resource hurr durr durr" argument. Human history is defined by the populace moving to and living where resources are. We aren't "lucky" to have oil. We moved here because of it. If Alberta didn't have a valuable resource, then we would be "lucky" to live somewhere else that does. That's not luck, that's basic human instinct.

Also, your final paragraph is hilariously awful. Sorry, Coffee. But you can't just rant about how absolutely nothing is the NDP's fault because oil prices are in the toilet, then go on and blame the PCs for it. Either it is the price of oil that is at fault, or it is both the price of oil and the actions of government. And if it is the latter, then Notley and the NDP are equally worthy of criticism as the past PC governments are. Especially when one considers the future outlook of Saskatchewan vs. that of Alberta. The difference there lies on the back of the current governments. You dippers are such hypocrites. You whined and whined and whined about how the populace was too trusting of the PCs and never held them to task, and now you whine and whine and whine because the populace followed your advice and refuses to be too trusting of the NDP.

[killer_carlson]

I wonder if Ms. Ambrose is positioning herself for a run as provincial "c"onservative leader.