May 2015 Provincial Election Thread v2

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Except there was no way anything with the even remotely related to the federal Liberal brand was going to be successful in provincial politics after the 80s. My point was largely along the lines of what Slava said.

To your point about Ceci though, I think that's more of an indictment of Notley for handing him a portfolio that he clearly isn't comfortable with. The article that was posted also seems to indicate it wasn't one he wanted either.

Not really, Joe Ceci as finance minister is an indictment of the NDP in general. It's not like Notley even had choices for finance minister. None of them are even remotely qualified to be Finance Minister and few if any are qualified to be cabinet ministers at all. Ceci being probably the strongest candidate to be a cabinet minister based on his political experience out of a field of 1 or 2 others was named finance minister essentially by default. This despite knowing absolutely nothing about finances or capital markets (Judging by his comments after the S&P downgrade I believe this to be true).

The scale and the pace of changes, Carbon tax, Bill 6, in light of this mass-incompetence/inexperience at the governing party level is why the NDP are being grilled in this thread and in the public. The carbon tax specifically irks me because they are depending on the likes of Joe Ceci to properly invest $3 Billion annually into 'green technology.' That's a task that thus far no one in the globe has proven to be good at yet, let alone by a merry band of unqualified misfits. Don Braid had it right when he highlighted that the problem is that Notley is moving too fast on their agenda for the sensibility of the electorate and the talent/experience level of her people.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

Not really, Joe Ceci as finance minister is an indictment of the NDP in general. It's not like Notley even had choices for finance minister. None of them are even remotely qualified to be Finance Minister and few if any are qualified to be cabinet ministers at all. Ceci being probably the strongest candidate to be a cabinet minister based on his political experience out of a field of 1 or 2 others was named finance minister essentially by default. This despite knowing absolutely nothing about finances or capital markets (Judging by his comments after the S&P downgrade I believe this to be true).

The scale and the pace of changes, Carbon tax, Bill 6, in light of this mass-incompetence/inexperience at the governing party level is why the NDP are being grilled in this thread and in the public. The carbon tax specifically irks me because they are depending on the likes of Joe Ceci to properly invest $3 Billion annually into 'green technology.' That's a task that thus far no one in the globe has proven to be good at yet, let alone by a merry band of unqualified misfits. Don Braid had it right when he highlighted that the problem is that Notley is moving too fast on their agenda for the sensibility of the electorate and the talent/experience level of her people.

Yeah, I think those are all fair criticisms and go back to what Slava and I both said about the catch-22 for political experience. I don't think voters could give the PCs another term just because they had more experience, as even with that experience they'd been tremendously incompetent for a number of years, and the WRP had probably the same amount of experience as the NDP.

There also seems to be a few people who want to have their cake and eat it too. When the NDP are slow to move on things, they freak out and accuse the NDP of stalling. When they start moving more quickly to implement their plans, then people accuse them of being too hasty.

[GaiJin]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

I honestly think Greg Clark and the Alberta Party are going to take alot of NDP votes in the next election. The guy is making himself very visible as a business-focused centrist alternative, and raises his voice quite well. He would do well as the opposition leader next round.

You are correct about this, Greg Clark speaks well, and is on the mark with his criticisms of the current regime's handling of files. He often offers up reasonable alternative to their policies in the same line as well.
However the Alberta Party itself has ZERO brand recognition with the average voter, and is seen off in the wilderness because nobody really knows what they stand for. Even now, many people I know, think they only ran one candidate in the last election.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by GaiJin

You are correct about this, Greg Clark speaks well, and is on the mark with his criticisms of the current regime's handling of files. He often offers up reasonable alternative to their policies in the same line as well.
However the Alberta Party itself has ZERO brand recognition with the average voter, and is seen off in the wilderness because nobody really knows what they stand for. Even now, many people I know, think they only ran one candidate in the last election.

It will take some time to get the Alberta Party in as a household name. However, politics isn't done overnight, and the Wildrose had to start somewhere too; now they are the official opposition. If Greg and his candidates keep challenging the current government and keep speaking up, they will be heard.

[CliffFletcher]

Albertans are going to want a centrist alternative to the NDP and Wildrose. The Conservatives are still a toxic brand to most Albertans. The Liberals too. And Albertans have shown in the past - at the federal level anyway - that they're capable of throwing their weight behind new and unproven parties.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Albertans are going to want a centrist alternative to the NDP and Wildrose. The Conservatives are still a toxic brand to most Albertans. The Liberals too. And Albertans have shown in the past - at the federal level anyway - that they're capable of throwing their weight behind new and unproven parties.

I don't disagree, but after a few more years of watching this currently inexperienced government run things , will Albertans have the appetite for giving new inexperienced politicians a chance to run things? At least part of the concern we have (generalizing) is the lack of experience with some of the current crop of cabinet ministers.

[GaiJin]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

It will take some time to get the Alberta Party in as a household name. However, politics isn't done overnight, and the Wildrose had to start somewhere too; now they are the official opposition. If Greg and his candidates keep challenging the current government and keep speaking up, they will be heard.

The difference is, the Wildrose had 3 sitting Mla's jump on board early on that help to define the party for voters as to where they sat politically.The Alberta party had Dave Taylor jump over but he never made much noise as an Alberta party member, nor did he ever run in an election as an AP member to articulate or publicize their platform. Greg Clark has a big job ahead of him, and I think he has to make sure he attracts candidates that aren't seen anywhere left of center in order to make headway.

[chemgear]

E=NG

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...alry-1.3407302

In total, the NDP won all 27 greater Edmonton seats.

The NDP also won these seats with overwhelming support. In every Edmonton constituency, the NDP won with over 50 per cent, and there were 12 ridings with over 60 per cent, and incredibly, five of them with over 70 per cent.

In addition, premier Notley and six of the 13 cabinet ministers are from Edmonton. In contrast, there are only three cabinet ministers from Calgary.

Many of the NDP's closest political allies, the union members in Alberta Union of Public Employees, the Alberta Federation of Labour, the Alberta Teachers Association, and the United Nurses of Alberta are also based in Edmonton.

But winning Edmonton, even sweeping it, would not have allowed the NDP to form a government.

[CaptainCrunch]

I think that with the current environment lasting several years, and the poor public image of the NDP, that they could go into the next election preparing to be destroyed as a viable entity in this province.

They have to start rebuilding the faith and showing some leadership, now.

They're giving way to much ammo to the opposition parties and its not in dibs and drabs.

It could be like the carny call in the next election, except instead of "Do you want to go faster" it will be "do you want to go lower"

[killer_carlson]

Interesting.

That might be the feeling in Calgary.

In Edmonton there is currently zero alternative to them. The PCs are absent. Everyone knows the Liberals are done. The Alberta Party talks a good game and Clark seems to be a good MLA, but they are not putting any policy or taking steps to increase their profile and base. They talk a good game, but no one is sure of what they stand for. The WR - it's so bad up here for the WR it is tough to describe.

That leaves the NDP as the only organized, funded, and visible party in Edmonton. I said it before the last election: there was only one party attending the community events, on the ground, month after month. It was the NDP . The only time most voters heard from any other party was in the election period. That doesn't bode well.

[Resolute 14]

If the NDP owns Edmonton and Wildrose owns rural Alberta, then Calgary will be the kingmaker in 2019. Notley ignores our city at her own peril.

But CaptainCrunch is only looking at half the equation. The NDP have taken an obviously bad hand given the global economic situation, and still managed to fumble it. That's great for opening the door. But either Jean and Wildrose or whomever takes over for the PCs needs to set themselves up to storm through it. So in that vein, the PC's really need to get off their asses and elect a permanent leader.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

If the NDP owns Edmonton and Wildrose owns rural Alberta, then Calgary will be the kingmaker in 2019. Notley ignores our city at her own peril.

But CaptainCrunch is only looking at half the equation. The NDP have taken an obviously bad hand given the global economic situation, and still managed to fumble it. That's great for opening the door. But either Jean and Wildrose or whomever takes over for the PCs needs to set themselves up to storm through it. So in that vein, the PC's really need to get off their asses and elect a permanent leader.

I'm just wondering if Edmonton has taken the same level of hit as Calgary has, this city has been gutted because of the head office situation, The trickle down effect might hit Edmonton as hard this year.

Plus Edmonton tends to be more blue collar and its the union home of the province.

If the NDP is forced to go after Union roll backs in their something like 170 negotiations this year, the Unions might turn on them.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I'm just wondering if Edmonton has taken the same level of hit as Calgary has, this city has been gutted because of the head office situation, The trickle down effect might hit Edmonton as hard this year.

Plus Edmonton tends to be more blue collar and its the union home of the province.

If the NDP is forced to go after Union roll backs in their something like 170 negotiations this year, the Unions might turn on them.

I am in Edmonton quite frequently, I have sense no change in the attitude to the NDP. However, since they have not been hit as hard as Calgary has (what seems like it on the whole), I suspect that sentiment may change or they may become more vocal when job losses really start to mount. However I deal with health care professionals more than anything, and they seem relatively concrete job-wise.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

So in that vein, the PC's really need to get off their asses and elect a permanent leader.

The PC brand is going to remain toxic for another election cycle - both with the electorate, and with any strong candidate with leadership aspirations.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The PC brand is going to remain toxic for another election cycle - both with the electorate, and with any strong candidate with leadership aspirations.

I think that party needs to guy out anyone that's served in a senior position with previous governments, and really rebuild as a fresh faced alternative.

Position themselves as the center alternative.

what I think is really going to happen is a merger between WR and PC.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The PC brand is going to remain toxic for another election cycle - both with the electorate, and with any strong candidate with leadership aspirations.

The PC brand wasn't exactly toxic last time around - they still finished second in popular support.

Much of the NDP's support was a protest vote. Protests are notorious for being soft support, and the way Notley has handled things so far is going to hurt her. Wildrose has its own, well discussed problems. That leaves a large gap of people from centre-right to centre-left looking for a place to go. The Liberals may as well just fold up shop, and Clark/AB Party don't have the name recognition yet.

That leaves a large section of the population open to a return to the PCs. Find the right leader, and the PCs storm back to retake government pretty easily, imnsho.

[PeteMoss]

Still miles away from an election - way too soon to know how the NDP is going to look then. If oil prices boom back up and Alberta gets rolling again - no one is going to care or remember about the first year.

[killer_carlson]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I'm just wondering if Edmonton has taken the same level of hit as Calgary has, this city has been gutted because of the head office situation, The trickle down effect might hit Edmonton as hard this year.

Plus Edmonton tends to be more blue collar and its the union home of the province.

If the NDP is forced to go after Union roll backs in their something like 170 negotiations this year, the Unions might turn on them.

A lot of business minded Edmontonians still are mad at the cuts from Klein. It's like their own mini NEP. The perception (which is reality in politics) is that Edmonton institutional jobs were sacrificed to permit the Calgary business community to jump into the stratosphere. A lot of talk that people wont let that happen again.

The downturn is being felt but not to the same degree. There are a lot of businesses downsizing and large capacity for commercial space - which is going to bottom out next year when 2 new downtown spaces are finished.

However, the institutional employment hasn't changed. And the attitude of many of the workers is that they sacrificed salary for job security during the boom.

And i'll also say this. As positive as Derek Fildebrandt is for the WR and their fundraising down south, he goes over like a lead balloon in Edmonton and the NDP just point to his tweets and his actions and smile as Edmontonians pour money into NDP accounts. Actually, lead balloon is being too polite for how he is received by the average Joe up here. Donald Trump would probably poll better.

[killer_carlson]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The PC brand wasn't exactly toxic last time around - they still finished second in popular support.

Much of the NDP's support was a protest vote. Protests are notorious for being soft support, and the way Notley has handled things so far is going to hurt her. Wildrose has its own, well discussed problems. That leaves a large gap of people from centre-right to centre-left looking for a place to go. The Liberals may as well just fold up shop, and Clark/AB Party don't have the name recognition yet.

That leaves a large section of the population open to a return to the PCs. Find the right leader, and the PCs storm back to retake government pretty easily, imnsho.

In Edmonton it was.

Too many government employees had enough with PC MLAs and Ministers throwing the bureaucrats under the bus when the contreversial decisions were made by the political staff.

It was done. The question was what party would the votes go to

[peter12]

I think that if you drove 20 minutes outside of Edmonton - to Spruce Grove or Stoney Plain - you would find a very different attitude to the NDP. These communities are in the process of being devastated by this recession.