[News] Upd: Drouin decides to sit out until trade is completed. Lightning suspend him.

[Table 5]

While I'd love another winger on this team, I'm not sure Drouin is the guy we're really in dire need of. He's basically Gaudreau or Hudler 2.0...a smaller, skilled guy who tends to be more of a playmaker.

Ideally, I'd prefer relatively bigger-bodied pure sniper. Someone who can take advantage of Gaudreau's passes and rack up goals, but not get pushed around when teams like Anaheim come calling in the playoffs. I keep hoping Poirier is that guy, but things haven't gone as smoothly for him this year.

While i think he's far from a bust, Ive never been completely sold on the Drouin. In his draft year, he looked like an Oilers youtube special. Lots of dipsy-doodling around pylons in juniors, but you kind of wondered if that would totally translate into the NHL.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by parallex

i wouldn't. I mean with those guys i see it as your classic floor vs. Ceiling argument. Kylington has the highest ceiling and lowest floor, hickey the highest floor but lowest ceiling, and andersson somewhere between the two. Which one someone were to consider "ahead" is entirely down to your risk tolerance.

fyp

[Tinordi]

I'm just responding to the strange position that was circulating earlier in this thread that trading Kylington for Drouin was somehow a bad idea.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

You aren't getting Drouin for Kylington, not unless Tampa had him rated really high on their draft board and even then, you'd still need to add.

I can't speak for everyone, but in my own thoughts about constructing a deal for Drouin to include one of the Flames top three defense prospects, I have always maintained that any such deal would also need to include a roster player and a pick.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

The always overated 2nd round pick is what would push you over the edge to consider!

A 60th pick overall hold basically zero real value.

The continued over-rating of draft picks always amuses me!

First of all the Lightning's 2nd round pick would not be 60. 2nd of all if a 60th pick has zero value does the 104th pick have negative value because that's where the Flames picked Johnny Gaudreau. All picks in the draft hold value and it's simply up to the teams making the picks to find the diamonds in the rough with the later picks and it's not like all the elite players in the league were 1st round picks as many were taken in the 2nd round.

[saillias]

I would give up anything outside of the Gaudreau, Bennett, Monahan, Brodie, Hamilton Giordano group.

Yes that means our 1st. No, we're not getting 1st overall. We're not going to be in the bottom 5. C'mon. Look at how Gio is playing, and how Brodie is playing.

However I don't think Tampa would like what we have to offer, other teams probably have nicer pieces that are expendable.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by saillias

I would give up anything outside of the Gaudreau, Bennett, Monahan, Brodie, Hamilton Giordano group.

Yes that means our 1st. No, we're not getting 1st overall. We're not going to be in the bottom 5. C'mon. Look at how Gio is playing, and how Brodie is playing.

However I don't think Tampa would like what we have to offer, other teams probably have nicer pieces that are expendable.

We could easily win the lottery if we don't make the playoffs. Maybe not 1 OA, but top 3 is a definite possibility. In any event, if we don't make the playoffs and don't win the lotto, it still likely a top 10 pick, probably higher.

I would only trade our 2016-1st straight up for Drouin, no add-ons (well maybe Russell or something). it would also have to be top 3 protected. I might consider 2017-1st+Klimchuk. Yzerman will get more from someone more desperate.

The more I think about it, Vancouver should be all over this as they have no A prospects in their system and are about to hit hard times. Too bad Benning is a moron.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by saillias

Yes that means our 1st. No, we're not getting 1st overall. We're not going to be in the bottom 5.

I wouldn't bet a lot of money on that.

We're currently the 20th ranked team in the NHL while being only 2 points up on th 26th ranked team. Lot of potential volitility there... combine that with this being the first year where the top 3 picks will be determined by lotto and the odds of drafting in the top 5 is to high to use it as a trade chip. I'd do it if we could have it be lottory protected (ie if we win one of the three draws the pick defers to 2017) but otherwise no.

[Hackey]

Ya with three lottery draws now I'd be curious to see the probability of moving up in the draft. Odds that you draw one of those three balls. Someone good at math should figure it out. Seems like if Flames were in that 6-8 range the odds might not be great but good enough you wouldn't want some other team having the opportunity. Even if its 1/10 that seems pretty nice to potentially have a top 3 pick. Thats a superstar.

[Vinny01]

All the posters worried about the Flames trading their 1st and it is a lottery pick don't have to be so concerned. Treliving could put protection on the pick which allows the Flames to choose this year or next.

I trade any prospect (don't see the Lightning even having interest in Gillies) or pick and any roster player outside the core 6 for Drouin. He has elite potential and gives us 4 forwards aged 19-22 that can be major impact players.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

All the posters worried about the Flames trading their 1st and it is a lottery pick don't have to be so concerned. Treliving could put protection on the pick which allows the Flames to choose this year or next.

I trade any prospect (don't see the Lightning even having interest in Gillies) or pick and any roster player outside the core 6 for Drouin. He has elite potential and gives us 4 forwards aged 19-22 that can be major impact players.

That might be enough to kill any potential deal. All it would take is another team willing to not put that condition in.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

That might be enough to kill any potential deal. All it would take is another team willing to not put that condition in.

Potentially yes so if a team that is on the bubble wants to roll the dice so be it.

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

The always overated 2nd round pick is what would push you over the edge to consider!

A 60th pick overall hold basically zero real value.

The continued over-rating of draft picks always amuses me!

Yea who needs a second round pick... or even an extra one.

It's not like you could potentially parlay them into a deal for a player like Dougie Hamilton or anything.

Good thing those second round pics we had last year basically held zero value.

[442scotty]

We are a Johnny Gaudreau injury away from a potential first overall pick... Keep the pick

[Jason14h]

First of all the Lightning's 2nd round pick would not be 60. 2nd of all if a 60th pick has zero value does the 104th pick have negative value because that's where the Flames picked Johnny Gaudreau.

If the lightning got Gio their pick would probably end up around 60th.

The odds of a 2nd rounder playing over 50 games in their career is around 40%

http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percen...draft-1.206144

However, lower 2nd rounder are even worst.

Here is another analysis using 150 games

http://www.milehighhockey.com/2014/7...ft-percentages

And no a 3rd rounder doesn't have a negative value. Sure 1/1000 you get a Johnny, but 99% of the time you get at best a bottom 6 forward bottom 2 D role player.

The fact that adding in a low 2nd rounder would swing the trade including our captain is crazy. Heck we got a 2nd and 3rd for Glencross last season who could barely make either teams roster and is now out of hockey.

2nd rounder (Especially in the late 2nd) are the most overrated asset by fans in the league, both in trading and receiving.

[Jason14h]

It's not like you could potentially parlay them into a deal for a player like Dougie Hamilton or anything.

Good thing those second round pics we had last year basically held zero value.

Right cause the inclusion of the 15th overall had nothing to do with that trade. Look at my stats above. Sure 2nd have value, but to say a 2nd rounder would be the swing decider in trading Gio

[Poe969]

so the later the pick, the less value it has. Johnny Hockey must be worthless! Maybe Johnny's playing so well because the pick used to get him held negative value and he's just trying to pay the Flames back.

[EuKnoLikeMonny]

Originally Posted by Table 5

While I'd love another winger on this team, I'm not sure Drouin is the guy we're really in dire need of. He's basically Gaudreau or Hudler 2.0...a smaller, skilled guy who tends to be more of a playmaker.

Ideally, I'd prefer relatively bigger-bodied pure sniper. Someone who can take advantage of Gaudreau's passes and rack up goals, but not get pushed around when teams like Anaheim come calling in the playoffs. I keep hoping Poirier is that guy, but things haven't gone as smoothly for him this year.

While i think he's far from a bust, Ive never been completely sold on the Drouin. In his draft year, he looked like an Oilers youtube special. Lots of dipsy-doodling around pylons in juniors, but you kind of wondered if that would totally translate into the NHL.

Sounds like you're describing Okposo!

[Two Fivenagame]

Originally Posted by 442scotty

We are a Johnny Gaudreau injury away from a potential first overall pick... Keep the pick

Or even a Kari Ramo injury away

[_Q_]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Ya with three lottery draws now I'd be curious to see the probability of moving up in the draft. Odds that you draw one of those three balls. Someone good at math should figure it out. Seems like if Flames were in that 6-8 range the odds might not be great but good enough you wouldn't want some other team having the opportunity. Even if its 1/10 that seems pretty nice to potentially have a top 3 pick. Thats a superstar.

Using my quick math, if we're the 6th worst team in the NHL, our odds of picking in the top 3 is around 21% going into the draft.

Once the first ball is picked, that 21% can go either higher or lower depending on which team gets first and then second.

For comparison, the worst team in the NHL (so the Oilers), have a 51% chance of NOT drafting top 3.