2015-2016 Blue Jays Off-Season Thread

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Pieces are starting to fall together.

http://www.tsn.ca/report-anthopoulos...price-1.403438

Don't believe it. Boston would still outbid us, they're desperate.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Don't believe it. Boston would still outbid us, they're desperate.

.

Maybe they would have, but is essentially shows what AA's plans were (having a contender and spending money to do so) and what Rogers/Shapiro's plans are and what they will be going forward.

[Senator Clay Davis]

"We want a top talent, but only if we can get it for a bargain basement price".

Jerry CrasnickVerified account ‏@jcrasnick 23h23 hours ago
The #BlueJays are looking to add an impact power bullpen arm for "dollar store prices,'' said one player agent.

https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/672125523917697024

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

From mlbtraderumors:

That doesn't seem like an unreasonable contract for one of the best relievers in baseball.

So the Jays are too cheap to acquire a proper ace, and now they are too cheap to acquire high-end bullpen help. My god this team is frustrating. Most of the time the ESPN reports on the Jays are spot on, so it will be interesting as to what Sportsnet says on this.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

"We want a top talent, but only if we can get it for a bargain basement price".



https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/672125523917697024

Great reputation we have around the league.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

That doesn't seem like an unreasonable contract for one of the best relievers in baseball.

You and I have vastly different definitions of "reasonable contract" and "best reliever".

Giving Soria 3/27 would be an awful awful contract. There are current free agent relief pitchers I would rather have then Soria... O'Day, Madson, Lowe... and I wouldn't give them 9M per or 3 years. One of the best relievers in baseball? I wouldn't call him the best reliever on the Jays were he to sign in TO... hell, I wouldn't even call him the second best reliever on the Jays.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Parallex

You and I have vastly different definitions of "reasonable contract" and "best reliever".

Giving Soria 3/27 would be an awful awful contract. There are current free agent relief pitchers I would rather have then Soria... O'Day, Madson, Lowe... and I wouldn't give them 9M or 3 years. One of the best relievers in baseball? I wouldn't call him the best reliever on the Jays were he to sign in TO... hell, I wouldn't even call him the second best reliever on the Jays.

That's the going rate for a reliever of that quality. You either pay it, or you don't have them. Of the relievers you named, the only one I would take over Soria is O'Day, but that's only my opinion. 9 millions dollars a year over a short-term team is really not that much in MLB. Christ, Smoak just got 4M. Soria is better than anything the Blue Jays curently have, including Cecil. My opinion on Cecil not being as good as Soria may change if he can replicate last year's performance on a consistent basis. People forget what garbage Cecil was for the first half of the season. He probably cost the Jays 5-6 wins himself.

The Jays aren't spending money on starting pitching and have said they are focusing on the bullpen. Now there are reports from credible sources that says the Jays aren't really interest in adding any bullpen help if it costs them any money. So what the hell exactly are the Jays doing here?

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

That's the going rate for a reliever like of that quality. You either pay it, or you don't have them. Of the relievers you named, the only one I would take over Soria is O'Day.

Then you choose to not have them and reallocate that money somewhere more productive.

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

So what the hell exactly are the Jays doing here?

Retaining as much of their division winning team as they can and bolstering the back end of the rotation. Really, the only poor move they've made thus far is the Smoak extension... Those dollars definetly should have gone towards getting a Lowe or Madson.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Then you choose to not have them and reallocate that money somewhere more productive.

I would agree with that, assuming they Jays actually reallocate the money and spend it eleswhere, but that sure as hell as happened yet, and doesn't appear likely that it will.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

I would agree with that, assuming they Jays actually reallocate the money and spend it eleswhere, but that sure as hell as happened yet, and doesn't appear likely that it will.

Balderdash. Based on committed money and projected arbitration awards The Jays open day payroll will be $10,000,000.00 higher.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Balderdash. Based on committed money and projected arbitration awards The Jays open day payroll will be $10,000,000.00 higher.

The opening day payroll was lower last year than it was at the end of the year, and without even consideration of that, the following big contracts came off the Blue Jays books:

Buerhle - 20M
Romero - 7.775M
Izturis - 3M
Navarro - 5M
Reyes - 6.5M (Reyes made 22 M - Tulo makes 15.5M)


So I have a hard time believing that their opening day salary will be 10M higher now than it was last year, let alone that it will be higher than it was at the end of the year. They dropped almost 43 M in salary, and so far have only added 12M in Happ, 2M in Smoak, and 8M in Estrada (he made 4M last year).

[cross16]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Then you choose to not have them and reallocate that money somewhere more productive.



Retaining as much of their division winning team as they can and bolstering the back end of the rotation. Really, the only poor move they've made thus far is the Smoak extension... Those dollars definetly should have gone towards getting a Lowe or Madson.

I feel to many fans are giving too much credit to David Price and his impact on the Jays. He was phenomenal for them yes, but he won 9 games. Jays as a team still won 84 games without David Price and are starting the year with a better rotation, better depth, better defence and a better bull pen than they had for most of last year and so far have lost nothing off their offence.

Still have holes yes but I think people are acting like this team is going backwards when they are very likely better than they were last year.

[Hockey Fan #751]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

The opening day payroll was lower last year than it was at the end of the year, and without even consideration of that, the following big contracts came off the Blue Jays books:

Buerhle - 20M
Romero - 7.775M
Izturis - 3M
Navarro - 5M
Reyes - 6.5M (Reyes made 22 M - Tulo makes 15.5M)


So I have a hard time believing that their opening day salary will be 10M higher now than it was last year, let alone that it will be higher than it was at the end of the year. They dropped almost 43 M in salary, and so far have only added 12M in Happ, 2M in Smoak, and 8M in Estrada (he made 4M last year).

Donaldson made $4.3 million last year. He might end up making $20 million now. There's $15 million right there.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

The opening day payroll was lower last year than it was at the end of the year, and without even consideration of that, the following big contracts came off the Blue Jays books:

Buerhle - 20M
Romero - 7.775M
Izturis - 3M
Navarro - 5M
Reyes - 6.5M (Reyes made 22 M - Tulo makes 15.5M)


So I have a hard time believing that their opening day salary will be 10M higher now than it was last year, let alone that it will be higher than it was at the end of the year. They dropped almost 43 M in salary, and so far have only added 12M in Happ, 2M in Smoak, and 8M in Estrada (he made 4M last year).

They have already increased on what they started with last year and currently are not far behind where they finished from a payroll perspective. Donaldson and Cecil are both more than doubling their salaries which takes a good chunk.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by cross16

I feel to many fans are giving too much credit to David Price and his impact on the Jays. He was phenomenal for them yes, but he won 9 games. Jays as a team still won 84 games without David Price and are starting the year with a better rotation, better depth, better defence and a better bull pen than they had for most of last year and so far have lost nothing off their offence.

Still have holes yes but I think people are acting like this team is going backwards when they are very likely better than they were last year.

You really can't undersell what acquiring Price actually did to the Blue Jays clubhouse mentally. No doubt most of them were expecting nothing to be done and for ownership to once again cheap out and for what was there to be expected to produce playoffs. So it's not just the starts Price made, but how much acquiring him gave a jolt to the entire clubhouse and the mentality.

For instance if last season is repeated verbatim to July 31 next year, and instead of getting an ace the Jays do nothing, they'll maybe get a Wild Card spot or miss the playoffs altogether. But they won't go on a run like this year where they played a 40 game stretch of above .800 baseball.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by cross16

They have already increased on what they started with last year and currently are not far behind where they finished from a payroll perspective. Donaldson and Cecil are both more than doubling their salaries which takes a good chunk.

Can you do a side by side comparison to last year for me and prove that. Not saying you aren't right, but I'd like to see it.

I also see some pretty big flaws in that 2016 projection. Tulo does not make 20M, he makes 15.775, Thole wasn't tendered, etc. Some of those arbitration amounts are also some some pretty big reaches.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Can you do a side by side comparison to last year for me and prove that. Not saying you aren't right, but I'd like to see it.

I also see some pretty big flaws in that 2016 projection. Tulo does not make 20M, he makes 15.775, Thole wasn't tendered, etc. Some of those arbitration amounts are also some some pretty big reaches.

I found that info and if you do a search for 2015 payroll all you get is what they ended the year with, not the breakdown of how they started.

And Tulo makes 20 mill. He made 16 last year but i've been to 3 different sites now and all of them have Tulo at 20 mill which was my understanding when they acquired him anyway. I'm pretty sure he is 20 mill per year from now till the last year of his deal or something.

Ok, take Thole at his 1.8 out and he doesn't really change that this perception that they are limiting payroll or being cheap isn't accurate. They are still trending towards paying more than they did last year becuase I don't believe they are done adding. I think at least 1 and probably 2 bullpen arms are going to be added so I think they will be rigth around the 140 million mark for payroll. I don't see any of the arb awards being that far off and keep in mind if the Jays do decide to sign Donaldson to an extension 12 mill might be low.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

You really can't undersell what acquiring Price actually did to the Blue Jays clubhouse mentally. No doubt most of them were expecting nothing to be done and for ownership to once again cheap out and for what was there to be expected to produce playoffs. So it's not just the starts Price made, but how much acquiring him gave a jolt to the entire clubhouse and the mentality.

For instance if last season is repeated verbatim to July 31 next year, and instead of getting an ace the Jays do nothing, they'll maybe get a Wild Card spot or miss the playoffs altogether. But they won't go on a run like this year where they played a 40 game stretch of above .800 baseball.

For sure but my counter point to what would be they shouldn't need to next year. They had to based on the first half of the season but they are returning a better team next year so they shouldn't need that big of a run to either get into the playoffs or contend for the division. That's why I think people are overrating the impact Price had and forgetting that it is still a good team.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Can you do a side by side comparison to last year for me and prove that. Not saying you aren't right, but I'd like to see it.

I also see some pretty big flaws in that 2016 projection. Tulo does not make 20M, he makes 15.775, Thole wasn't tendered, etc. Some of those arbitration amounts are also some some pretty big reaches.

They're not reaches... arbitration awards follow a fairly predictable modeled path.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/1...-for-2016.html

Last years opening day payroll: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...ub?output=html

2016-2021 payroll obligations: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...ub?output=html

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by cross16

For sure but my counter point to what would be they shouldn't need to next year. They had to based on the first half of the season but they are returning a better team next year so they shouldn't need that big of a run to either get into the playoffs or contend for the division. That's why I think people are overrating the impact Price had and forgetting that it is still a good team.

Oh it's a good team, but it's also in a brutal division where depending on how the rest of FA goes could have the Jays as the 3rd best team in the division. And then there's the whole AL being brutal so even a WC berth is going to be difficult with Houston, Texas, Anaheim, Minnesota all good as well. Of course the Jays offense was also totally ridiculous last year. Even a 10% decline and they'd still be a great offense, but probably not good enough to be a playoff team. It's gonna be a very thin line between making and missing the playoffs next year. A guy like Price is someone who pushes you over the top.