Russian Airbus crashes in Egypt

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

I honestly wouldn't put it past Russia to do something like this to themselves, as an excuse to go to war.

ISIS provides excuses to go to war against them every day. There is absolutely no need to do anything to make ISIS look like scum so you can be excused for clearing ISIS out. No way it was set up by Russia.

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by Pointman

ISIS provides excuses to go to war against them every day. There is absolutely no need to do anything to make ISIS look like scum so you can be excused for clearing ISIS out. No way it was set up by Russia.

Not to mention it doesn't seem that Putin really needs an excuse to invade another sovereign nation....

[T@T]

For some reason people seem to think Russia is the root of all evil and will do anything to get their way. To me it seems their leaders protect their own as much as anyone in the world.

Zero chance they would blow up their own innocent citizens like this for any reason.

[2Stonedbirds]

More than anything Russia's involvement just throws a wrench into Western plans with removing Assad and setting up their own puppet for their own benefit.

Right after Russia announced they were going to help the west in their fight against terror, Obama and Kerry instantly start into a "oh no u di-int!" tirade. You would think they would welcome the help, if indeed fighting terror and extremism was their goal. But it isn't. The goal is securing land and ergo oil for their own benefit. And of course media from both sides tells two complete opposite stories.

It's funny a week or two ago we were hearing about Isis shaving their beards off and fleeing into Turkey. And how the Russian offensive was going to create more problems. Now the narrative has changed into their involvement being absolutely useless. Which is it?

I guess all a guy can do is read RT and CNN and then look for the truth somewhere in the middle. The problem is I think there is no truth to any of it.

Whatever. The US will get their puppet, perhaps at the expense of thousands of lives and possible war between superpowers but who cares right? Now onward-ho to Iran!

[sharkov]

Rumours are that there was a mile in the airport. Makes me wonder if something could happen in Canada with someone sympathetic to isil working for an airport

[oilyfan]

Originally Posted by sharkov

Rumours are that there was a mile in the airport. Makes me wonder if something could happen in Canada with someone sympathetic to isil working for an airport

It's not one sympathizer, Egypt is teeming with them. Here in Canada it would require a network of them working in concert to pull something like that off. You just can't walk into an airport with a bomb, working there or not.

[Thor]

Its just bizarre how many people think Putin and Russia are these bad asses, its especially funny because they lost already one war with Afghanistan, and what, they will be able to wipe out ISIS because what? Putin likes to be topless riding bears? loool

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Thor

Its just bizarre how many people think Putin and Russia are these bad asses, its especially funny because they lost already one war with Afghanistan, and what, they will be able to wipe out ISIS because what? Putin likes to be topless riding bears? loool

To be fair that war was 25-35 years ago, long before Putin was running things. It was a war they couldn't really win as it was pretty much Russian against everyone else, many think Gorbachev ending it was strictly economic. the real losers were the estimated 1.5 million Afghans killed.

[Thor]

Right, but what would it matter if it was Putin or not. Afghanistan is an unwinnable country by any superpower, and so is groups like ISIS. Since Russia got involved in Syria things have only gotten messier, and its not like Russia steps in and fixes anything.

The right wing in the US loves Putin, even here in Iceland some people think he's some tough guy who we should admire his strength and leadership.. The guy has bullied Ukraine and Georgia, faced sanctions that are sinking his economy, he's nearly become a dictator and how anyone can cheer this guy is sickening to me.

Not saying you are, but you see it even in this thread, "HAHA ISIS you messed with the wrong guy, don't mess with Putin!" etc.. Its childish.

[2Stonedbirds]

Except that, historically, when crap hits the propeller Russia takes the gloves off and they will play dirty pool to get the job done if need be. And not be apologetic about it at all.

After 9-11 the US went hard into the ME. If it comes out this was indeed a terror attack on innocent Russian civilians you can bet your bottom ruble they will get nasty.

[Thor]

So the problem is the US invasion of Afghanistan, Iraq, its bombing campaigns in Syria, its attacks on terrorist targets all over including Africa via drones/special forces is not dirty, gloves off, unapologetic?

But again, my point is not how angry or aggressive they will be, just look at how the US reacted (overreacted) in the middle east after 9/11, but more like why does anyone seriously think Putin will do anything better than the current FUBAR situation in the middle east. If anything it just makes it messier.

[2Stonedbirds]

That's what I said. After 9-11 the US went into the Middle East on a tear and didn't make any bones about it.

The western invasion of Syria however has less to do with human rights violations than it does with control of resources.

Mass terror attacks on civilians is typically met with swift retribution, in the case of Russia it will not be pretty as their tactics care not for collateral damage.

[Essembi]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/09/middle...nai/index.html

The beginning of the response?

[CaptainCrunch]

Could be however I was reading reports from people over there that Russian Troops have been showing up in small numbers all over Syria. Small numbers to me usually mean special action groups either providing intelligence, coordinating air strikes or going after specific individual targets.

Militarily you usually see this kind of thing right before the hammer falls.

Semi-offically Russia has moved 4000 troops to Syria to assist Asaad, I don't doubt that most of those are special forces and technical advisors, and pilot and aircrews/support.

It would be interesting to see if Russia has kicked up its sea and airborne training since the crash.

[FlamesAddiction]

My big worry is that if it does indeed turn out to be a terrorist attack, will Egypt cooperate with Russia to root out the terrorists? Egypt has a lot to lose if it was terrorism as it will severely hurt their tourism industry and they will probably deny it was terrorism. I doubt Russia would have patience to negotiate.

Something like this could escalate the conflict quite a bit if cooler heads don't prevail. The migrant/refugee dilemma would be catastrophic if Egypt got pulled into the wider conflict.

[CaptainCrunch]

I would think that Egypt would probably fully comply, however the problem that comes into play is that Russia is working with Iran on this, we've seen some coordination between Iran and Russia.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

My big worry is that if it does indeed turn out to be a terrorist attack, will Egypt cooperate with Russia to root out the terrorists? Egypt has a lot to lose if it was terrorism as it will severely hurt their tourism industry and they will probably deny it was terrorism. I doubt Russia would have patience to negotiate.

Something like this could escalate the conflict quite a bit if cooler heads don't prevail. The migrant/refugee dilemma would be catastrophic if Egypt got pulled into the wider conflict.

Egypt is in the USA's pocket. Egypt gets about 1.5 billion a year in "aid" from the USA. They won't risk that by cooperating with the USA's regional competitor. Any cooperation will be just for show.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I would think that Egypt would probably fully comply, however the problem that comes into play is that Russia is working with Iran on this, we've seen some coordination between Iran and Russia.

"Some coordination"?

Iran has about 15,000 troops in Syria and about 10,000 more it commands via Hezbollah. Russia has an estimated 5,000 or so and growing. The fact of the matter is Assad wouldn't be in power at all if it wasn't for funding from Russia and Iran. Just as the USA funds Jordan, Israel, and Egypt, Russia funds Syria and, to a lesser extent, Iran.

Russia is in it for old cold war reasons. Iran has a dream of extending a #####e empire from their territory to the coast of the Mediterranean and eventually closing that ring around the holy sites in Saudi Arabia.

Russia, not so coincidentally, just announced they were going ahead with a 800 million dollar missile sale to Iran:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34767012

[blankall]

Originally Posted by 2Stonedbirds

Except that, historically, when crap hits the propeller Russia takes the gloves off and they will play dirty pool to get the job done if need be. And not be apologetic about it at all.

After 9-11 the US went hard into the ME. If it comes out this was indeed a terror attack on innocent Russian civilians you can bet your bottom ruble they will get nasty.

The question is will that help? ISIS doesn't care if you carpet bomb a city. They don't care about civilian casualties. You can't beat them down with hardships, and they will exploit any military action as motivation to recruit more members. They want an apocalyptic and widespread jihadist war. That's where they thrive.

ISIS has also shown themselves to be adaptable and mobile. When you push them out of one area with a heavy military presence, they set up shop somewhere else. How do you stop that? Send in 2 million troops to impose military rule and fight some never ending urban guerilla conflict all across Syria? It's the same reason military campaigns failed in Vietnam and Afghanistan. It's an unwinnable conflict.

[CaptainCrunch]

Considering that ISIS is a death cult, and is trying to push for an apocalyptic end of times confrontation with the West, they just might get it.

Everything that they do, their cruel punishments and hideous executions and monstrous postings on the internet isn't about securing a caliphate, its about enraging people enough to do something about it.

the logical next step for ISIS is the exporting of the craziness to Western nations, either via finding and encouraging home grown terrorists, or via sending experienced fighters to Western countries via the refugee flood that's happening.

It has to be frustrating for them that all the child rapings and executions, and burning people alive and all their other atrocities haven't had the desired results yet.

At some point, ISIS will have to be dealt with or you risk turning the rest of the middle east against you via inaction against what they see as a very real threat.