2015 ALCS Toronto Blue Jays VS Kansas City Royals - Page 72 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Jiggy_12 · 10-25-2015, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Michael Saunders an upgrade on Revere? The same Michael Saunders that plays for the Jays? Michael Saunders is a career .230 hitter, a complete bandaid, and the very definition of a plug. I wasn't happy with the Jays acquiring even before he blew his knee out. Revere is a legitimate lead off man. Saunders is a bench player at best.

A) Revere is the furthest thing from a legitimate lead-off man
B) batting average is the most over rated archaic stat that still somehow gets attention. You need to look at OBP and OPS to find your true value.
C) Revere really is quite mediocre. At best. I won't provide you with reasons but you are free to look him up. I suggest fangraphs as an appropriate site to start.

TheAlpineOracle · 10-25-2015, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

That may be true, but that doesn't mean that those two strike calls weren't brutal, and didn't impact dramatically how those ABs played out. Both can be true.

Those two calls on Revere and Navarro were two of the worst calls I've ever seen. They weren't even borderline. That ump needs to be severely disciplined. That happens to the Royals and not the Blue Jays and ESPN is going the Tim Donaghy route with their reporting. Completely effected those at bats and the outcome of the game in my opinion. People can point to the 0-12 with RISP all they want, but those calls were complete BS.

TheAlpineOracle · 10-25-2015, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jiggy_12

A) Revere is the furthest thing from a legitimate lead-off man
B) batting average is the most over rated archaic stat that still somehow gets attention. You need to look at OBP and OPS to find your true value.
C) Revere really is quite mediocre. At best. I won't provide you with reasons but you are free to look him up. I suggest fangraphs as an appropriate site to start.

I'm well aware Revere is mediocre, but Saunders is complete garbage. There's about as much chance of him taking Revere'd spot as there is Aaron Loup becomng the Jays 4th starter. I've followed the Mariners since I was a kid (2nd favorite team - was a huge Griffey Jr fan), and Saunders is nothing but a yearly disappointment.

flames_fan_down_under · 10-25-2015, 10:57 AM

Saunders career OBP is .301, thats about as bad as it gets for a professional baseball player.

According to fan graphs that puts him in the "poor" category, barely above "awful".

Jiggy_12 · 10-25-2015, 11:02 AM

Saunders has yet to play a full season, and a hitters park like Rogers centre will boost those numbers.

Either way, Saunders is also not a lead-off hitter but he would be a fine replacement for Revere in the field and in the lineup. If Revere's ground balls aren't finding holes he is borderline terrible. His speed is nice, so as a 4th OF I have no issues with him. His arm is a complete noodle.

I don't know who our lead-off hitter should be, to be honest I had no issues with Tulowitzki in that spot. Not prototypical but doesn't hurt you there either.

TheAlpineOracle · 10-25-2015, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jiggy_12

Saunders has yet to play a full season, and a hitters park like Rogers centre will boost those numbers.

Either way, Saunders is also not a lead-off hitter but he would be a fine replacement for Revere in the field and in the lineup. If Revere's ground balls aren't finding holes he is borderline terrible. His speed is nice, so as a 4th OF I have no issues with him. His arm is a complete noodle.

I don't know who our lead-off hitter should be, to be honest I had no issues with Tulowitzki in that spot. Not prototypical but doesn't hurt you there either.

There's not a single solitary argument that can be made for Saunders replacing Revere. They'd have to go out and get significant addition to be any improvement on Revere, and they have bigger problems elsewhere to worry about using resources on LF or at the lead off position.

Saunders is a 30 year old player picked off the garbage heap That hasn't even played one entire season in his 8 major league career, let alone have a productive season. His career is likely done. Trading Happ for Saunders was a terrible deal.

Therr's no way Tulo would except being a lead off guy for an entire season. He was fine doing it coming in 3/4 of the way through this season on a new team, but he's going to be a 3-4-5 guy next year or he'll be walking up to the GM's office and demanding a trade. Pompey is a potential lead off guy, but that all depends on his performance. He's the only Guy on the current roster who could potentially take Rever's spot and force AA into a trade.

Roof-Daddy · 10-25-2015, 11:39 AM

RF - Bautista
CF - Pillar
LF - Revere

Assuming those are your starters, who likely stays on as extra OF's?

Pompey
Saunders
Carerra

All of the above players are under club control IIRC.

Also, how about having Travis as the lead off guy? How is his speed?

...assuming he can take Goins spot at 2nd base, which can't be a given with how well Goins played in the 2nd half.

2B Travis
3B Donaldson
RF Bautista
DH Encarnacion
1B Colabello/Smoak (Would love to see the Jays sign Davis here)
SS Tulowitzki
BC Martin
CF Pillar
LF Revere

TheAlpineOracle · 10-25-2015, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

RF - Bautista
CF - Pillar
LF - Revere

Assuming those are your starters, who likely stays on as extra OF's?

Pompey
Saunders
Carerra

All of the above players are under club control IIRC.

Also, how about having Travis as the lead off guy? How is his speed?

...assuming he can take Goins spot at 2nd base, which can't be a given with how well Goins played in the 2nd half.

2B Travis
3B Donaldson
RF Bautista
DH Encarnacion
1B Colabello/Smoak (Would love to see the Jays sign Davis here)
SS Tulowitzki
BC Martin
CF Pillar
LF Revere

I think Travis could be a good lead off option, but I don't think that's where you get the most value for his bat. In my mind, on this team he is a 6 hitter. He can drive the big guys in and he Pushes everyone else down a spot now. You have Travis at 6, your 7-8-9 are now colabelo (assuming he is resigned), Martin, and Pillar. Not a weak spot in the entire lineup now.

I never even thought about Chris Davis before. A Left handed batter who slays at Rogers Centre. He could be a Donaldson 2.0. Would be a great pickup for the Jays, but likely wishful thinking given the money we need to spend on pitching, and his agent is Scott Boras who is a notorious Blue Jays hater.

JiriHrdina · 10-25-2015, 01:04 PM

I'd like to here more about Revere being mediocre. I'm not saying it isn't true, I just don't understand that POV. He seems to be a good spark for the offense.

browna · 10-25-2015, 01:16 PM

A couple interesting articles and clips as the season winds down.

First, Bautista and his perception. Given the classless trash talking from Ventura (nevermind him throwing at the heads of players), it's pretty clear that Bautista is in a different class.

http://thewalrus.ca/big-bad-bautista/

Tulo opened up about never being comfortable in Toronto, and trust issues going forward due to his time in Denver. His use of "they", still after a few months of being on the team, is interesting.

http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/...eling-betrayed

Who knows about next year, very hard to predict how things play out with the roster, and with results over 162 games, more than any other sport, its a marathon.

Slugs like Valencia, Coke, Delabar, Castro, Jenkins, Hauge, Doubront all played on the roster this year.

And remember, this game was a .500 team until end of July. The Jays have to keep the offense together, to prevent teams from pitching around guys. That's pretty likley to happen, the key has to to be pitching, obviously.

But AA has to remember what those first 3.5 months felt like, with the expectations falling short, and not on the magical post July run, when making roster decisions this offseason. That late run showed the potential if everything fell together, and the confidence that adding winning players does for the team psyche, and nothing taken away from that...but this team was average without that jolt of Tulo/Price (and Hawkins bringing the bullpen together).

Be interesting to see Shapiro coming in and what stamp he wants to put on the team, and if there's any egos that are going to parlay a playoff run into an opportunity to demand more (money, or playing time etc) that may cause team issues going into and through next year.

With baseball, once you get into the post season, anything can happen, but getting there is a monumental task with the shortage of playoff spots. The Jays going 13-6 vs the Yankees, playing them a few series in the backhalf of the year, was the difference in getting in. They didn't do much against the rest of the AL East, and the Boston, Yanks, and maybe O's will reload as they usually do. Not going to be an easy task, as the ace pitcher is going to be a big issue, but the middle of the bullpen is needing a serious upgrade, that was held together with twine after just one guy (Cecil) went down in the ALDS.

Sylvanfan · 10-25-2015, 01:30 PM

Isn't Rogers Center a neutral ball park when it comes to hitting? I think Saunders is too much of a risk, never healthy and one good season among a bunch of poor production. Revere as a 9 hitter giving you solid D in left is fine. Travis was a good productive bat when healthy. They might need to decide between EE and Joey Bats who's staying. Batista is starting to look like a LF/DH to me.

TheAlpineOracle · 10-25-2015, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I'd like to here more about Revere being mediocre. I'm not saying it isn't true, I just don't understand that POV. He seems to be a good spark for the offense.

I don't think mediocre was a good word, he's slightly above address as a player. He is an above average hitter with zero power, great base runner, a good contact hitter, and am average fielder. Unless you are getting star, he's a legitimate lead off hitter. Replacing Revere is the least of the Jays concerns. Would be nice to have a switch hitter leading off, but that is a want, not a need.

TheAlpineOracle · 10-25-2015, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Isn't Rogers Center a neutral ball park when it comes to hitting? I think Saunders is too much of a risk, never healthy and one good season among a bunch of poor production. Revere as a 9 hitter giving you solid D in left is fine. Travis was a good productive bat when healthy. They might need to decide between EE and Joey Bats who's staying. Batista is starting to look like a LF/DH to me.

I didn't think EE was all that bad as a first basemen. That said, he's openly said to the media he prefers no to be an every day fielder.

Fire of the Phoenix · 10-25-2015, 03:49 PM

Revere is a perfect 9th hitter, I would love to keep him on if he's in that role. He simply doesn't walk enough to be a leadoff guy as a long term solution. Expecting him to hit .320 so his OBP is passable is a bit much too ask, even though he pretty much did it last year. He's definitely not mediocre, there's a reason he was one of the most sought after players at the deadline.

Hopefully Pompey can take that spot (lead off) and run with it next year, that would go a long, long way to figuring things out.

1. LF/CF Pompey
2. 3B Donaldson
3. RF/DH/1st? Bautista
4. DH/1st Encarnacion
5.SS Tulowitzki
6. 2B Travis
7. C Martin
8. CF Pillar
9. LF/RF? Revere

This lineup would require possibly moving Bautista to DH, alternating with EE as he plays 1st too. I like the look of it but the positions don't line up with the 4 outfielders and EE as a DH. Who plays 1st? Or do they do a platoon again?

You have to think a guy like Revere may simply be traded if Pompey is ready. Perhaps they even sell high on Pillar to help address the pitching?

It's going to be interesting to see what they do. I think there is going to be a big trade that surprises people.

Jiggy_12 · 10-25-2015, 04:05 PM

I suppose I was a little harsh on Revere, as he does serve a purpose and what he does do well - he does very well. So mediocre is a little harsh. However, his career WAR in 6 seasons is just a shade above 7, so he is about a 1.2 WAR season player. Effective? Yes. The guy you want getting the most at-bats on the team? Definitely no.

His career OBP is .328 and that's not great. He gets a ton of cheap hits, hits nothing hard, has zero extra base power. If we had him bat 9th, no issues with that. Get some speed on base to turn the lineup over. But after inning 1, he's not your lead-off guy anymore and he does more damage than good in the 1 hole. You want to hand as many at bats as you can to a guy that will get on base with more frequency, and hit with a higher OPS which virtually any player on the team will have.

And yup, forgot all about Travis. That is the Jays lead-off hitter next year without question.

Mathgod · 10-25-2015, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jiggy_12

B) batting average is the most over rated archaic stat that still somehow gets attention. You need to look at OBP and OPS to find your true value.

Average alone may be archaic and not very useful, but average with RISP is one of the most important stats in baseball IMO.

Caged Great · 10-25-2015, 04:34 PM

I would like the Jays to target either Heyward or Davis this off season to add another good player into the lineup. If Heyward, move Jose to 1B, if Davis, leave Jose in RF but utilize the defensive replacement aspect more and have Pompey come in regularly.

Antithesis · 10-25-2015, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I'd like to here more about Revere being mediocre. I'm not saying it isn't true, I just don't understand that POV. He seems to be a good spark for the offense.

I think it's important in such a discussion to qualify Revere as 'mediocre as a leadoff hitter'. The fact remains that he has a great profile for a bottom-of-the-order guy, but the knock on him has long been his lack of walks; further, a lot of the discussion has centered around his OBP as being too low for a leadoff guy.

Interesting that we're starting to hear rumbles about Tulo. I heard someone on FAN960 (believe it was Brunt) suggesting the Jays might use Tulo as a trade chip to get more pitching in. Didn't hear the entire argument but I think it centered around a logjam pending with Tulo, Goins, and Travis all in the middle infield. It seems like Ryan Goins has convinced a lot of people that he is an everyday middle infielder. I remain unconvinced at the moment.

It's taken me a couple of days to be able to make comment here (I say, assuming everyone is waiting with baited breath for my contribution). It was just too upsetting seeing the Jays season end on such a putrid offensive performance combined with the atrocious ball-strike calling at the end of the game. I'm not one for the 'human element brings a non-factor to games' argument ... the only thing I think it brings is contrived controversy that isn't necessary but unfortunately human umps are here for the foreseeable future. Between MLB's slowness in making change and the umpire's association, it'll be a long, long time before they go away though I'm sure the technology is there.

Finally, I'd like to add my voice to those thanking the Jays for a wonderful season. What a ride that was! I'll take that every year, so much better than just waiting out the string in September watching mediocre teams led by Scott Rolen (as great as he was). Hope to see everyone back next season!

Roof-Daddy · 10-25-2015, 08:49 PM

1. RH - 2B - 25 - Devon Travis
2. RH - 3B - 30 - Josh Donaldson
3. RH - RF - 35 - Jose Bautista
4. RH - DH - 33 - Edwin Encarnacion
5. RH - 1B - 32 - Chris Colabello
6. RH - SS - 31 - Troy Tulowitzki
7. RH - BC - 33 - Russell Martin
8. RH - CF - 27 - Kevin Pillar
9. LH - LF - 28 - Ben Revere

1. LH - IF - 28 - Ryan Goins
2. SH - 1B - 29 - Justin Smoak
3. SH - OF - 23 - Dalton Pompey
4. LH - OF - 29 - Michael Saunders
5. RH - 1B - 30 - Matt Hague
6. LH - OF - 28 - Ezequiel Carrera

------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. SP - RH - 24 - Marcus Stroman
2. SP - RH - 41 - R.A. Dickey
3. SP - RH - 25 - Drew Hutchison
4. SP - RH - 23 - Aaron Sanchez
5. SP -

1. RP - LH - 29 - Brett Cecil
2. RP - LH - 28 - Aaron Loup
3. RP - RH - 27 - Liam Hendriks
4. RP - RH - 21 - Roberto Osuna
5. RP - RH - 28 - Ryan Tepera
6. RP - RH - 30 - Bo Schultz
7. RP - RH - 32 - Steve Delabar

As stated, bullpen is a little scary, the rotation is down right frightening.

Also need to find a decent back up catcher.

bluejays · 10-25-2015, 09:04 PM

A few interesting comments that I'd like to comment on.

Firstly the infield. I think it'd be a huge mistake to deal Tulo, despite his comments and reading in that he may not be happy. It may come down to money, but he's the best SS in the game. He was doing fine until he got hurt, and I have no doubt there was some lingering effect this playoffs. I'd keep him. Over to Goins though, great defensive 2B, and cheap, but his offence leaves a ton to be desired. If you can sell him for a really good RP and prospect, I think you do it. Travis can step in and will not be a hole in the lineup, but may be suspect defensively. It's a tradeoff, but I'd prefer not to have a near automatic out in the lineup (Goins).

Outfield is where it starts to get interesting. AA's tended to sell when a guys value is high, but I'm in no way convinced he'll deal Pillar. Pillar did everything well this year, from hitting, to running, to defence. I'd argue he's put himself in the top 7 or so CF in the league. Without looking at the stats I'd think he could be a leadoff candidate as well. Where trade bait could come into play is the two corner OFers. Rivere to me is as good as gone. His arm isn't there, and he's just not good enough to be on the Jays as an everyday fielder. But also not bad enough to be on the bench. What does that mean to me? Trade. His bat was relatively mediocre when you really needed it this playoffs. So I do think he'll be dealt for a good RP.

Now the blockbuster. I've thought for awhile, that one of JB or EE will be dealt, and when all is said and done, I think it'll be Edwin for an Ace. He's a tough SOB, and good player who produces, but they have enough HR's, and they really need that pitcher. If the Jays dealt JB, AA would become public enemy no1 if things didn't go well, and I think he's well aware of that. Edwin would bring an handsome return, and the Jays offence would still click. My only concern would be Jose's health, but if things didn't go to well in the first half of the season, with him being a FA at years end, I'd also look to deal him to get a nice return.

Pitching wise, I don't think the Jays will open the purse strings if Price demands over 5 years @ $27M+, and I can't blame them, but I do think you have to factor in game theory and keep him away from the Yanks. Whether he says he doesn't want to go there or not, money can change anyone's mind. The Yanks are desperate and you know they'll be making a push for someone. Back to pitching, I do think you keep Dickey and exercise that option and keep him as your 5th pitcher. Or you exercise and deal him. Estrada for three years @ $12M I would do as well. That leaves you with (Ace), Stroman, Estrada, 4th pitcher, Dickey. Ace you get from the EE deal, 4th from a signing. Still a lot of questions with that staff, but the shoring comes mostly in the RP category.

Anyway, there's a lot of interesting opportunities here. AA's a smart guy, I'm sure he'll do some good stuff.