Federal Election Polling Thread

[Canuck-Hater]

Originally Posted by craigwd

I've lived in the area for almost 6th years and nobody has ever knocked on my door until last week when one of Brendan Miles' volunteers canvassed my building. It was very refreshing.

I accepted an invitation to meet him too, he seems like a really great guy. He is a GP with some good ideas, I asked him why he chose to run as a Liberal and he gave a logical answer, and he'said running a very positive campaign.

Now the NDP guy seems to be all about self promotion of his brand and anti-Harper signs than running a serious campaign.

I'm still undecided but leaning Red right now.

Yeah Matt Masters is new to politics so il cut him some slack for his signs (which I thought were quite creative btw). He is a really nice dude though.

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by octothorp

I've gotta give the CPC credit: when many were saying that they should give up attacking Trudeau and turn their attention to Mulclair, they kept on attacking Trudeau, as though they always knew that the NDP would fade on their own down the stretch. I still think that the message was wrong, but certainly the target was right.

Doesn't make much sense to attack the NDP. Outside of some Quebec seats chasing people from the NDP just sends them to the Liberals which hurts them. It is the centre, centre-right voter they are competing for when they attack Trudeau.

It's the same reason Mulcair goes after Trudeau for T centre-left voters.

[Caged Great]

New daily from Nanos

Lib - 34.8
Con - 28.6
NDP - 24.9
Green - 5.4
Bloc - 5.5

Either this poll is an outlier that slightly gives more votes to the Liberals at the expense of the Conservatives, or the Tories are starting to fade.

Hopefully it is the latter.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

New daily from Nanos

Lib - 34.8
Con - 28.6
NDP - 24.9
Green - 5.4
Bloc - 5.5

Either this poll is an outlier that slightly gives more votes to the Liberals at the expense of the Conservatives, or the Tories are starting to fade.

Hopefully it is the latter.

thats a very promising poll!

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

New daily from Nanos

Lib - 34.8
Con - 28.6
NDP - 24.9
Green - 5.4
Bloc - 5.5

Either this poll is an outlier that slightly gives more votes to the Liberals at the expense of the Conservatives, or the Tories are starting to fade.

Hopefully it is the latter.

Gotta be an outlier, IMO. Remember that Nanos uses a three-day rolling average (1200 sample size total, 400 per day for three days), so to see that much movement from the previous day suggests to me that the 400 people they randomly interviewed Friday are more anti-Conservative than their usual sample.

That said, I certainly hope this is not just an aberration but a refection of an actual decline in CPC support.

[FlamesAddiction]

The Toronto Star officially endorsed Trudeau and the Liberals yesterday. I am not sure how much these thing affect polling, but am interested to see.

[Patek23]

Also seems like the Herald is full of Liberal ads today. Doesn't take ads to see who Calgary Sun endorses. Funny though as someone told me recently the Sun owns Herald now too. Seems like each is too pander to both sides.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Flaming Homer

Also seems like the Herald is full of Liberal ads today. Doesn't take ads to see who Calgary Sun endorses. Funny though as someone told me recently the Sun owns Herald now too. Seems like each is too pander to both sides.

Both papers are owned by Postmedia. From your description, it doesn't sound like the Herald is "pandering" to a Liberal readership, though. There's a big difference between paid Liberal ads (Herald) vs. pro-Conservative editorial slant (Sun).

[Patek23]

I would agree. But reading an article on the same topic comes to two different conclusions on either site article wise. I think because a lot of the Suns base are people who enjoy the sensationalism the Suns come of as more obvious and over the top. While the Heralds bias comes off alot less but even as a Liberal supporter I can't deny that articles generally have a light lean to the left.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Gotta be an outlier, IMO. Remember that Nanos uses a three-day rolling average (1200 sample size total, 400 per day for three days), so to see that much movement from the previous day suggests to me that the 400 people they randomly interviewed Friday are more anti-Conservative than their usual sample.



That said, I certainly hope this is not just an aberration but a refection of an actual decline in CPC support.

Nanos was one of the first and most consistent to show the Liberals pulling into a lead. Other polls are now converging on the same. It will be interesting to see if Nanos is a leading indicator.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by Flaming Homer

I would agree. But reading an article on the same topic comes to two different conclusions on either site article wise. I think because a lot of the Suns base are people who enjoy the sensationalism the Suns come of as more obvious and over the top. While the Heralds bias comes off alot less but even as a Liberal supporter I can't deny that articles generally have a light lean to the left.

It would be a very boring world if everything said and everyone thought the same thing.

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Yeah, sorry, I meant when they were in second. I still think the fact that 25% of respondents said they'll vote strategically is huge. If that trend holds up, then really any riding in which the CPC leads by 5% or less would be likely to go to another party.

the 'Shy Tory' vote though is going to be a big factor though, especially in recent years it's been a big factor in a lot of elections and could swing things the CPC way

Globe and Mail forecast still has them as favorites for a minority government

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle25377958/

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Gotta be an outlier, IMO. Remember that Nanos uses a three-day rolling average (1200 sample size total, 400 per day for three days), so to see that much movement from the previous day suggests to me that the 400 people they randomly interviewed Friday are more anti-Conservative than their usual sample.

That said, I certainly hope this is not just an aberration but a refection of an actual decline in CPC support.

Not necessarily. In a rolling poll, the movement each day is caused by two numbers: the new number that gets added to the poll and the old one that gets taken off. Look at the last four days for the Tories:
32.1 - 31.6 - 31 - 28.6.

That 32.1 was their high-water mark since the beginning of the month. So this swing is probably the combination of a bad polling result for the Tories (but not necessarily much worse than the previous two days), plus their best day of the month getting removed from the 3 day average. So the swing merely tells us that the new poll was significantly worse for the Tories than the one three days earlier, which itself might have been a slight outlier in the Tories' favour.

It's certainly possible to interpret the CPC Nanos numbers this month as the Tories being in steady, gradual decline with an outlier in their favour on the Oct 6th result. We'll see how much of a bounce-back there is 3 days from now, which will tell us whether this most recent one was truly an outlier in the other direction.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

the 'Shy Tory' vote though is going to be a big factor though, especially in recent years it's been a big factor in a lot of elections and could swing things the CPC way

Globe and Mail forecast still has them as favorites for a minority government

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle25377958/

Has the 'Shy Tory' vote been as pronounced in Canada as other places? I'm not sure that it has. I think we can also agree that if voter turnout ends up being higher than normal, along with higher than normal youth vote, that that's probably bad news for the Conservatives.

[Senator Clay Davis]

The "shy Tory" factor might normally be important, but in this election I think it is totally negated by the ABC factor. It's clear that NDP support is not that strong and their supporters will vote Liberal if it blocks another CPC win. Wouldn't surprise me to see their numbers collapse into the teens in the final week as the Liberals have emerged as the only party that can beat the CPC.

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Has the 'Shy Tory' vote been as pronounced in Canada as other places? I'm not sure that it has. I think we can also agree that if voter turnout ends up being higher than normal, along with higher than normal youth vote, that that's probably bad news for the Conservatives.

not technically the CPC but it was a big factor in the last BC provincial election, where the BC Libs are closer to the CPC than any other party for the most part

NDP were leading all the way up to election day, they had a 9% lead in the polls day of and the actual results were a 14% swing

I think BC sees a higher CPC vote than the polls show, I have a bad feeling also that voter turnout isn't going to see the spike needed

might just be cynical

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Has the 'Shy Tory' vote been as pronounced in Canada as other places? I'm not sure that it has. I think we can also agree that if voter turnout ends up being higher than normal, along with higher than normal youth vote, that that's probably bad news for the Conservatives.

I think the shy Tory effect is there, but for whatever reason Nanos tends to be better at capturing real Tory support than other pollsters. At least in past elections. Right now they don't show any stronger CPC support than other pollsters, which suggests that either they aren't capturing the shy Tory effect this time, or it's simply not a factor the way it has been in past elections.

[Regular_John]

Originally Posted by craigwd

I've lived in the area for almost 6 years and nobody has ever knocked on my door until last week when one of Brendan Miles' volunteers canvassed my building. It was very refreshing.

I accepted an invitation to meet him too, he seems like a really great guy. He is a GP with some good ideas, I asked him why he chose to run as a Liberal and he gave a logical answer, and he'said running a very positive campaign.

Now the NDP guy seems to be all about self promotion of his brand and anti-Harper signs than running a serious campaign.

I'm still undecided but leaning Red right now.

I'm in the same boat, Calgary Heritage and I'm still undecided. At the party level I agree with liberals more then the NDP.

However in our riding it feel like Brendan's campaign has been almost non-existent up until this last week. Where as Matt Masters has been pounding pavement since the election was announced. But like you, I never get door knockers at all, so I've not talked to anyone from either campaign office.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by jaydorn

I'm in the same boat, Calgary Heritage and I'm still undecided. At the party level I agree with liberals more then the NDP.

However in our riding it feel like Brendan's campaign has been almost non-existent up until this last week. Where as Matt Masters has been pounding pavement since the election was announced. But like you, I never get door knockers at all, so I've not talked to anyone from either campaign office.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html

Strange to see people saying tis the Liberlals are polling double or better than the NDP everywhere in Calgary. Also in communities i frequint they are winning the sign coun test, even against the connseratives.

I really thoght the ABC vote in Calgary would go almost exclusively to he Libs.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by #-3

I really thoght the ABC vote in Calgary would go almost exclusively to he Libs.

Is it not?

According to the riding analysis from 308 you posted, the Liberals are ahead outright in Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, and Calgary Skyview, and they're in second place behind the Conservatives everywhere else in the city. There isn't a single Calgary riding where the NDP is performing better than the Liberals per 308.