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Old 10-08-2015, 06:02 PM   #441
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Me too , it's a lost cause but it's better than not trying haha.
Yeah, I'm still gonna cast a ballot for Brendan Miles and hope for the best.
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Old 10-08-2015, 08:24 PM   #442
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New Leger poll:

http://leger360.com/admin/upload/pub...en20151008.pdf

Lib 34%
CPC 30%
NDP 25%
Bloc 6%
Grn 4%
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Old 10-08-2015, 09:29 PM   #443
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Polls are starting to converge
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Old 10-08-2015, 11:05 PM   #444
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Polls are starting to converge
I think it's pretty clear that the soft NDP votes have gone to the Liberals. Now it will be interesting to see if more start flowing to the Liberals with them being frontrunners.
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Old 10-09-2015, 05:43 AM   #445
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From an 8 point lead a few days ago, Mainstreet now has it as basically a tie: CPC 36% LPC 35%, NDP 20%. If it weren't clear before it is now, a good amount of NDP support was soft and it has virtually all fallen behind the Liberals now.
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Old 10-09-2015, 07:46 AM   #446
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From an 8 point lead a few days ago, Mainstreet now has it as basically a tie: CPC 36% LPC 35%, NDP 20%. If it weren't clear before it is now, a good amount of NDP support was soft and it has virtually all fallen behind the Liberals now.
It seems like it is like that in most elections. There are a lot of people that like the idea of the NDP so they initially poll high, but then they get cold feet once they realize that that the platform doesn't add up.
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Old 10-09-2015, 07:52 AM   #447
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It seems like it is like that in most elections. There are a lot of people that like the idea of the NDP, but then they get cold feet once they realize that that the platform doesn't add up.
An overwhelming majority of Canada would vote Democrat in the States if it was one country. Most of the Liberal, NDP, and Green votes would likely go towards the dems. The Liberals by in large have been the best money managers in both countries, while the far left of each party is a bit more promising big things without really needing to figure out all the particulars because they'll never fly. That's why in both countries you see that the economy always does a better job when those parties are in office and why NDP provinces have difficulties. You need to be able to figure out a way to make all the things that you would ideally like to do make financial sense. The Liberals and more centrist democrats are better able to do that.

It's sort of like all the things that Bernie is promising. It all adds up to something like 18 trillion dollars over 10 years or something like that. It is possible to figure out a way to pay for all that, but it isn't really all that easy unless you cut other things.
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Old 10-09-2015, 09:15 AM   #448
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It seems like it is like that in most elections. There are a lot of people that like the idea of the NDP so they initially poll high, but then they get cold feet once they realize that that the platform doesn't add up.
I think it's more of a desire to get rid of Harper, combined with some poor campaigning and an unlikable leader in Mulcair that is costing the NDP.
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Old 10-09-2015, 09:41 AM   #449
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I think it's more of a desire to get rid of Harper, combined with some poor campaigning and an unlikable leader in Mulcair that is costing the NDP.
Yes, I think it would be incorrect to ascribe pre-2011 voting behaviour to the situation here.

Mulclair tried to run a frontrunners campaign and played it entirely to safe to the point that he's been outflanked on every issue. Also doesn't help that he was supposed to be some great debater and in even his strongest performance no one thought he really came out on top.
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Old 10-09-2015, 10:32 AM   #450
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I think the other thing that might be hurting the CPC is the fact that the Liberals have climbed back into second place. I think when the NDP were looking like the other option, a lot of centrist voters probably favoured the CPC over what they perceived as a more drastic change. Now the Liberals present a tangible option for those voters who want to move on from Harper but didn't want an NDP government.
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Old 10-09-2015, 10:44 AM   #451
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I keep hearing that Trudeau is not qualified, "not ready" and shouldn't be the leader since he's never really worked or doesn't have a PHD.

But the Liberals ran two scholars in the last elections with Dion and Ignatief and the party was nearly decimated. Weren't the Liberals always accused of being a party for elites?

So what's right and what's wrong?
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Old 10-09-2015, 10:47 AM   #452
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So what's right and what's wrong?
What's right is the opposite of whatever they're currently doing. What's wrong is what they are currently doing. Alternate as they do.
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Old 10-09-2015, 10:53 AM   #453
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I think it's more of a desire to get rid of Harper, combined with some poor campaigning and an unlikable leader in Mulcair that is costing the NDP.

Don't ignore the fact that Liberals have run a great campaign. Trudeau has exceeded (lowered) expectations, they've taken some clearly differentiated positions, they remained positive, and maybe I'm just targeted but I'm seeing way more advertising from them than the other parties apart from the ever present Justin's not ready ads.
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Old 10-09-2015, 11:09 AM   #454
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Don't ignore the fact that Liberals have run a great campaign. Trudeau has exceeded (lowered) expectations, they've taken some clearly differentiated positions, they remained positive, and maybe I'm just targeted but I'm seeing way more advertising from them than the other parties apart from the ever present Justin's not ready ads.
I think the CPC's ads have come across as campy compared to the Liberals'. The Liberals have a fair amount of schmaltz and cheese in theirs, but they don't come across as the caricatures that the CPC ads do.
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Old 10-09-2015, 12:47 PM   #455
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http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives...015/index.html

More steam being gathered in Ontario for the Liberals. Also some pickup in BC.
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Old 10-09-2015, 01:17 PM   #456
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Originally Posted by GirlySports View Post
I keep hearing that Trudeau is not qualified, "not ready" and shouldn't be the leader since he's never really worked or doesn't have a PHD.

But the Liberals ran two scholars in the last elections with Dion and Ignatief and the party was nearly decimated. Weren't the Liberals always accused of being a party for elites?

So what's right and what's wrong?
I like that campaign that Trudeau is 'just not ready' I take this as 'damn he's good and we'll be ####ed by next election when he has experience so let us try to sneak in this time'.
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Old 10-09-2015, 05:01 PM   #457
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I've gotta give the CPC credit: when many were saying that they should give up attacking Trudeau and turn their attention to Mulclair, they kept on attacking Trudeau, as though they always knew that the NDP would fade on their own down the stretch. I still think that the message was wrong, but certainly the target was right.
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Old 10-09-2015, 05:14 PM   #458
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I think the other thing that might be hurting the CPC is the fact that the Liberals have climbed back into second place. I think when the NDP were looking like the other option, a lot of centrist voters probably favoured the CPC over what they perceived as a more drastic change. Now the Liberals present a tangible option for those voters who want to move on from Harper but didn't want an NDP government.
Liberals are winning according to NANOS and threehundredeight seat chart..
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Old 10-09-2015, 06:12 PM   #459
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Liberals are winning according to NANOS and threehundredeight seat chart..
Yeah, sorry, I meant when they were in second. I still think the fact that 25% of respondents said they'll vote strategically is huge. If that trend holds up, then really any riding in which the CPC leads by 5% or less would be likely to go to another party.
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Old 10-09-2015, 09:25 PM   #460
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Yeah, I'm still gonna cast a ballot for Brendan Miles and hope for the best.
I've lived in the area for almost 6 years and nobody has ever knocked on my door until last week when one of Brendan Miles' volunteers canvassed my building. It was very refreshing.

I accepted an invitation to meet him too, he seems like a really great guy. He is a GP with some good ideas, I asked him why he chose to run as a Liberal and he gave a logical answer, and he'said running a very positive campaign.

Now the NDP guy seems to be all about self promotion of his brand and anti-Harper signs than running a serious campaign.

I'm still undecided but leaning Red right now.

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