[News] Bouma, Byron, and Jooris and 20 other players file for Salary Arbitration

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The year before Frolik had 10 pts in 45 games and got traded to the Jets for a 3rd #74 and 4th #134 round pick.

3rd and 5th

But he was also making over 2M and was therefore a casualty of the cap crunching Blackhawks. He was still a very reliable bottom six player on the Stanley Cup winning stacked Blackhawks but he was paid too much for his role with that team.

With the Panthers and then the Jets he had shown he was a capable 20-20 player if given top 6 ice-time. When he signed his 3M contract he had 80 goals, 200 points, 430 games. It's not the same situation at all as Bouma who has yet to play 200 games and just hit 50 points.

[automaton 3]

Frolik and Bouma are not very good comparibles.

[Mister Yamoto]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Lol at comparing Bouma to Frolik. One is Mr. Fancy stat with a few years of great years to back up 2nd line status. The other is Mr. Intangible with one good year where he had the sh% of a star sniper. If Bouma can do it again, we'll talk $3m+, for now it's pretty obvious he's not there yet.

So a high shooting percentage is a bad thing? Hudler must be a really bad player then. Second in the NHL in shooting percentage.

Maybe Bouma could take a little bit of velocity off of his shot to lower his shooting percentage.

[theg69]

I'm not a person who gets hung up on analytics but I think the fact that they are using advanced stats at these hearings is part of the reason why the Flames are playing a little bit of hardball.

Treliving has definitely taken more of an advanced stats approach this offseason - as both Frolik and Hamilton drove possession on their respective teams. He also signed Backlund pretty quickly despite his injury history but I think he sees that Backlund was the best possession forward on the team over the past couple of seasons. I also suspect that's why Byron was kept around despite him seemingly falling off the depth chart (he drove possession as well for a bottom line player when healthy).

I preface this by saying I do like Bouma and the following stats are just part of the analysis. He benefited from high percentages as well as playing with our best possession forward (Backlund) this past season. I suspect the Flames see a possible regression next season especially since Bouma has been bumped down the depth chart by a guy like Frolik.

He also has the most woeful possession numbers out of all the forwards and was the worst among forwards in terms of shot suppression. I believe there wasn't a single forward that had better possession numbers that played with him compared to playing without him (WOWY). Don't flame me for the link (just don't click into it if you don't want to read it).

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Todd-...ouma/202/69820

I do like Bouma as a player and feel he is a heart and soul guy but I strongly suspect that the above evidence is what the Flames are bringing into the arbitration hearing, because based on counting numbers a 2+ million dollar contract does not seem that unreasonable.

Again, I'm not saying I completely agree and hang my hat on the teachings of the advanced stats crowd, but just giving a possible plausible explanation why this case ended up in arbitration.

[bax]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The year before Frolik had 10 pts in 45 games and got traded to the Jets for a 3rd #74 and 4th #134 round pick.

So? This doesn't take away the fact the he had put up NHL seasons with 45, 43, and 42 points in the past.

Frolik is not a comparable to Bouma in any way other than the fact that they are both forwards.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

3rd and 5th

But he was also making over 2M and was therefore a casualty of the cap crunching Blackhawks. He was still a very reliable bottom six player on the Stanley Cup winning stacked Blackhawks but he was paid too much for his role with that team.

With the Panthers and then the Jets he had shown he was a capable 20-20 player if given top 6 ice-time. When he signed his 3M contract he had 80 goals, 200 points, 430 games. It's not the same situation at all as Bouma who has yet to play 200 games and just hit 50 points.

I also remember Quenville saying during the Hawks cup run that Frolik was there best penalty killer. He also had 10 points in 23 games during playoff run. Frolik brings more to the table that just points which is probably why he got 3.3 million

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Mister Yamoto

So a high shooting percentage is a bad thing? Hudler must be a really bad player then. Second in the NHL in shooting percentage.

Maybe Bouma could take a little bit of velocity off of his shot to lower his shooting percentage.

If you do it consistently, it's fine. Nobody criticizes Stamkos or Ovechkin for their shooting percentages because they're elite snipers. But I'd be cautious about giving a big contract to player who has a career year with a higher than normal shooting percentage, because odds are their shooting percentage will come back down.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by codynw

If you do it consistently, it's fine. Nobody criticizes Stamkos or Ovechkin for their shooting percentages because they're elite snipers. But I'd be cautious about giving a big contract to player who has a career year with a higher than normal shooting percentage, because odds are their shooting percentage will come back down.

You could also say that Bouma is worth 2-2.5 million on a long term deal even if he scored half the goals he did last year. Just because he brings alot to the table besides his scoring and 2 million is 3rd line money

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

You could also say that Bouma is worth 2-2.5 million on a long term deal even if he scored half the goals he did last year. Just because he brings alot to the table besides his scoring and 2 million is 3rd line money

Who is his comparable at 2.5 with half his goals???? That's a massive overpayment

[dino7c]

another thread with people comparing the dollars on an RFA contract to a UFA contract

Apples and Oranges

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

You could also say that Bouma is worth 2-2.5 million on a long term deal even if he scored half the goals he did last year. Just because he brings alot to the table besides his scoring and 2 million is 3rd line money

I guess you could say that, but I wouldn't agree with you. I see Bouma as a 4th liner that can kill penalties who had a career year, that he likely won't repeat. If this team wants to manage their cap space properly in the future, they can't overpay for players like that.

[Enoch Root]

I always find it entertaining when a guy who is under 25 and has improved every year is described as having a career year.

Is it possible this was his best year? Sure. Is it definitive, or even likely? We'll see.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Mister Yamoto

So a high shooting percentage is a bad thing? Hudler must be a really bad player then. Second in the NHL in shooting percentage.

Maybe Bouma could take a little bit of velocity off of his shot to lower his shooting percentage.

Never said it was. Do you think Bouma will be able to replicate last season? Or even come close? Did you follow Lance Bouma prior to last year? Why are you comparing Jiri Hudler with Lance Bouma in any way? Why are you trying to put words in my mouth?

Pretty snarky and sarcastic post when what you're seeming to take offense to is my assertion that Bouma's sh% is likely to revert to historical norms rather than stay high enough to keep him in the company of stars such as Hudler. Such a ridiculous assertion, what madness.

Let's just assume you're right. The level of snark indicates you must have real faith that Bouma can come close to replicating those numbers going foward, making him a bonafide 2nd line winger in you eyes, I would assume. Since Bouma has apparently developed into a goal scorer, I would hope that the coaches give him more pp time and minutes overall. I mean, If he can get another 80 shots per year (only 1 per game) we could potentially have another 30 goal scorer on our hands!!!

But I suppose there's reasons why that's lunacy. Lance can only have a high sh% if he takes fewer shots and is very, very selective... or something. Even if they started giving him heavier pp minutes and didn't just ask him to shoot more, I'm sure that wouldn't work either because of reasons. He's probably just destined to be yet another 3rd liner who pops in 15-18 per year off of roughly 100 shots. Too much opportunity would probably hurt him, he needs to stay in his sweet spot.

[ricardodw]

A different tack.... Everyone on CP is pleased with the break through that Backlund has made in the last season. The Flames management were pleased and signed him at 3.6x3.

Just a couple of years ago Backlund was on the trading block when Burke was taking control of the team.


Backlund being stronger on the puck: Can we all agree that 2014-15 Backlund was considerably stronger on the puck than 2010-13.

It just so happens that Backlund prime linemates last season were Bouma and Jones.

I put forward for discussion that Backlund was able to play considerably bigger and stronger with Bouma on his wing. Playing with Bouma made Backlund a better player.



I feel that Bouma is as important to the Flames as will be Frolik.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Who is his comparable at 2.5 with half his goals???? That's a massive overpayment

If Bouma is asking for 2.5 at his arb hearing I'm guessing the long term deal would be closer to 2 than 2.5

I wish Bouma was healthy during the playoffs this year. I've seen guys suggest Ferland gets 1.25 to 1.5 and he scored 2 goals. Bouma is a good player and 2 million is a quality 3rd line contract. We have 2 contracts to players who play 4th line or even healthy scratch making over 3 million. Bouma at 2 million long term would be a steal for us

[Benched]

want to keep him, think he's definitely worth 2mill, think he will be long term as well...

but every dollar we save on any contract means another we can put someplace else. I don't begrudge the processes or BT trying to keep his 3rd line player salary costs down.

Look how much trouble Boston got into by paying their 3rd and 4th line guys 'what they deserve'. Much as we love 'em, much as they add, they're not the core and they are replaceable if their price tag is too high.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Benched

want to keep him, think he's definitely worth 2mill, think he will be long term as well...

but every dollar we save on any contract means another we can put someplace else. I don't begrudge the processes or BT trying to keep his 3rd line player salary costs down.

Look how much trouble Boston got into by paying their 3rd and 4th line guys 'what they deserve'. Much as we love 'em, much as they add, they're not the core and they are replaceable if their price tag is too high.

I agree and I think signing him long term at 2 is the better approach of keeping the costs down. I don't feel the Flames are ready to win the cup now so when I look at this team I'm looking at 16/17 or 17/18 as the start of something special and care more about keeping cost down then rather than now. I would be shocked if we sign Bouma to a 1 year deal this year that we aren't looking at keeping him at around 3 next summer

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

If Bouma is asking for 2.5 at his arb hearing I'm guessing the long term deal would be closer to 2 than 2.5

I wish Bouma was healthy during the playoffs this year. I've seen guys suggest Ferland gets 1.25 to 1.5 and he scored 2 goals. Bouma is a good player and 2 million is a quality 3rd line contract. We have 2 contracts to players who play 4th line or even healthy scratch making over 3 million. Bouma at 2 million long term would be a steal for us

Ferland has shown he will score more than Bouma in the long run. He's done it elsewhere. If one outlier year is an indicator, than David Clarkson is a 30 goal scorer waiting to break out. Ferland isn't likely to be top 6 and he's better offensively than Bouma.

Bouma is below replacement level offensively if you ignore last year. One year with 15 goals doesn't suddenly change that. If he does it again, we'll talk

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

A different tack.... Everyone on CP is pleased with the break through that Backlund has made in the last season. The Flames management were pleased and signed him at 3.6x3.

Just a couple of years ago Backlund was on the trading block when Burke was taking control of the team.


Backlund being stronger on the puck: Can we all agree that 2014-15 Backlund was considerably stronger on the puck than 2010-13.

It just so happens that Backlund prime linemates last season were Bouma and Jones.

I put forward for discussion that Backlund was able to play considerably bigger and stronger with Bouma on his wing. Playing with Bouma made Backlund a better player.



I feel that Bouma is as important to the Flames as will be Frolik.

Backlund was strong on the puck with every linemate. He was better statistically without Bouma

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I always find it entertaining when a guy who is under 25 and has improved every year is described as having a career year.

Is it possible this was his best year? Sure. Is it definitive, or even likely? We'll see.

Maybe but in 2006-2007 26 year old Johan Franzen had a career year with 10 goals and 30 pts. Followed up with 7 pts in 18 games in the playoffs.

I don't know if there was anything in advanced stats that was going to show that he would have 25-30 goals /season for the next 4-5 years?