CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Ugg, two votes already? Guys, I am not scum, you are sniffing up the wrong tree here. Every game I have played I have been on the towns side and have been upfront about it. This time is no different. I have made it to the end of every mafia game we have done so far which gives me a wack of experience. Have faith in me and let's try and pick off one of the bad guys early this time. I am not sure why my posts have been suspicious, they are similar to the other games I have been in.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

This is a really weird post to me.

On one hand, being 'afraid' with only 2 votes seems that you might not have support elsewhere.

However, bringing up past games about being town doesn't mean anything, it's random numbers. Besides, everyone ever has been upfront about being town, especially scum...Just seems weird.

If you want to get out Scum, post who you think is Scum and vote for them. Make a case for someone better, not just to save yourself.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Yeah, the last post by Diss is a bit odd. Oiling sort of nails it on the head, just seems like such a weird post to make with days to go until the deadline and only 2 votes have been placed. However, re-reading Diss' posts, I just don't get the feeling of scum and I think he just was venting a little frustration of being targeted early. I'm interested to see his future posts as alluded to above.

For me, thinking about some of the posts that came off as "different" early on, I have to say that Seb's strategy definitely caught my attention. It has some merit for sure, where there is simply too much noise with lots of posts. Sort of a direct shot against "the more information the better". It's a bit outside the box, but not a terrible idea.

However, what struck me as much more interesting was the way Party sort of latched onto that idea and ran with it. It seems like Seb thought out that strategy and wants to stick to it, but Party just grabbed a hold of the same idea and uses that to explain a very low post count, that has little to no content. Party also said they were new to Mafia, and I'm guessing drawing a Mafia card in their very first game would be very nerve racking and the fear of slipping up would be great, hence the low post count without much substance. Their instant vote sort of tears down that argument though, but maybe it was just heat of the moment?

So, I'm sticking to my idea of waiting until Monday to make a voting decision because posting is so infrequent on the weekends, but Party is at the top of my list for now. I'd like to hear a little more from them.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Okay, just saw that Diss replied while I was typing. That response sort of confirms my thinking. Diss is talking gameplay quite well already, much more than many others at this point. I think the "2 votes already" post was just a frustration post, nothing more.

This sequence still makes me wonder. It's day 1 and mrkjaz defends diss when there is really no reason to, he then goes on to say that "diss is talking gameplay quite well, much more than many others at this point." but when I look back at diss' posts before this post it pretty much is filler.
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...8&postcount=28
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...9&postcount=37
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...4&postcount=46
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...5&postcount=47
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...1&postcount=88
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=100
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=138
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=140
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=189

I can't decide if this is mrkajz trying to link to town, or try and misdirect off a host. I think it's the last part about diss talking gameplay quite well that is throwing me for a loop.

[Hockeyguy15]

Sorry, missed 3 posts by diss.

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=207
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=208
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=209

[dissentowner]

You are going to use all that early crap to continue to tunnel vision on me? You need to step away from basing your conclusions on the fact I voted for you early in the game and was suspicious of you. If you are not turned and are a passenger you are not helping the cause.
You list bizaro last day as a suspected host and for some reason that gives you supposed town credit in GGG's eyes. I have been after him for a while and dropped the hammer vote on him and now I am suspicious again. It makes zero sense. No matter what I said about voting with GGG earlier there is zero way I would drop the hammer on bizaro if I was scum given he ended up being the Captain. Of course if I had hammered and he would have flipped town you would have been posting that was proof I was scum right there. I was confident bizaro was a host so I went for it hoping it would pay off and give everyone another confirmed townie and when he flipped Captain I was pretty psyched. Instead in a show of mind boggling reasoning I seem to be a stronger suspect for it. There is nothing more I can do to prove I am town. I was on board with following GGG, I voted for mrjk multiple times, I dropped the hammer on the Captain. If you guys still think I am a host or turned then so be it, fill your boots.

[Hockeyguy15]

Stop whining.

I went back to the start and am reading the thread over again, I am posting things that seem off to me with the people who are left. This just happens to be the first thing that rubs me the wrong way.

Most of the people left are either too busy or too lazy to do it themselves, so since I am doing it for myself I thought it might help the rest of us out. It seems like pretty much everyone is fine with sitting back and letting GGG pick, but you really should be doing your own work and coming to your own decision.

Pretty much all game you have sat back and let everyone else do the heavy lifting. The one time I called you out and told you to bring your evidence against me you bailed on your argument, then you brought a 'link' between Timbo and me forward and pushed hard while trying to stifle me from posting every chance you got. When your link was proven to be false you packed it in and felt sorry for youself.

I highly suggest you go back and do some digging and see if you can help us find the last host.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

So I completely missed the fact that Party is, in fact, in NZ and therefore their odd posting schedule might be completely due to the time difference.

I looked back on when they tended to respond and it seemed to line up with the NZ time zone rather well. Therefore, my earlier conclusion that they were lurking and only responding in the thread when their name came up is pretty much shot; it was all just a coincidence. That was the main reason I had a hunch on them, so I don't feel right keeping the vote on them.

unvote

Since we are so close to deadline though, I don't want to leave a vote off. I'm sort of neutral on Active right now, I can't really seem to read his play. When looking at Girly though, I see a lot of straight up "fact" posts, where she is just clarifying the rules of the game more-so than anything. She also seems to be the person most pre-occupied with the spore and Day 2 strategy already. We are already in a bit of a bind with not enough votes to lynch anyone at deadline, yet she seems more concerned with how voting might go on Day 2, and what might happen with the spore. It rubs me the wrong way as if she is trying to lay some groundwork for tomorrow already (already knows what happened with the spore? already knows her mafia buddies are safe? I don't know for sure, but these are the thoughts I'm having)

Vote: GirlySports

I also don't like this vote/unvote from mrkajz on PE. He votes for him earlier on for lurking, then conveniently can pull it off him for being in a different time zone.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

No matter what I said about voting with GGG earlier there is zero way I would drop the hammer on bizaro if I was scum given he ended up being the Captain.

This has been explained to you many times on why this doesn't make you town, turned or host. When you hammered there was zero chance bizaro wasn't being lynched. It's an easy play for a town or scum to hammer there.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I was confident bizaro was a host so I went for it hoping it would pay off and give everyone another confirmed townie and when he flipped Captain I was pretty psyched.

You dropping the hammer does not give you confirmed townie status. All it did was speed up the end of Day 8 by 12 hours. You didn't make the decision to vote out biz. You didn't pull out a weapon and kill him. You didn't night kill someone. You really didn't do anything.

Your actions in Day 8 were:

• Calling out those who didn't vote mrk
• Calling them out again for responding to your call out
• Saying the thread is too quiet
• Voting Peanut
• Saying you aren't sure who the 3rd host is
• Saying you are weary of biz but your instincts have sucked
• Continuing your plight of "why am i a host if i voted with GGG"
• Telling us you are working
• Posting your list of scum being biz, me, HG and Peanut
• Being baffled why HG and you have biz as a host, but he also has you as a host. You ignore that I also think biz is a host and have you as a host, since HG and I have the same list
• unvoting
• Hammering biz

Tell me where in there is something concrete that shows you are town. There isn't anything. I'm not saying you are for sure not town, but there is absolutely nothing in Day 8 that shows you are even remotely a confirmed townie. Voting Peanut before anyone actually did looks too eager. Hammering biz is nothing. It's neither town, nor scum. If you were one of the earlier votes I can see it having more weight. The last vote isn't much.


Instead of being flabbergasted at people's suspicions of you, why not post some theories about others that would help shed some light on the 3rd host, if it's not you.

[squiggs96]

Maz,

Can you update the OP to remove bizaro from the living list and to add in a link to the first post of Day 9?

Thanks.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

This has been explained to you many times on why this doesn't make you town, turned or host. When you hammered there was zero chance bizaro wasn't being lynched. It's an easy play for a town or scum to hammer there.



You dropping the hammer does not give you confirmed townie status. All it did was speed up the end of Day 8 by 12 hours. You didn't make the decision to vote out biz. You didn't pull out a weapon and kill him. You didn't night kill someone. You really didn't do anything.

Your actions in Day 8 were:

• Calling out those who didn't vote mrk
• Calling them out again for responding to your call out
• Saying the thread is too quiet
• Voting Peanut
• Saying you aren't sure who the 3rd host is
• Saying you are weary of biz but your instincts have sucked
• Continuing your plight of "why am i a host if i voted with GGG"
• Telling us you are working
• Posting your list of scum being biz, me, HG and Peanut
• Being baffled why HG and you have biz as a host, but he also has you as a host. You ignore that I also think biz is a host and have you as a host, since HG and I have the same list
• unvoting
• Hammering biz

Tell me where in there is something concrete that shows you are town. There isn't anything. I'm not saying you are for sure not town, but there is absolutely nothing in Day 8 that shows you are even remotely a confirmed townie. Voting Peanut before anyone actually did looks too eager. Hammering biz is nothing. It's neither town, nor scum. If you were one of the earlier votes I can see it having more weight. The last vote isn't much.


Instead of being flabbergasted at people's suspicions of you, why not post some theories about others that would help shed some light on the 3rd host, if it's not you.

Good for you. So why is HG so convincing of being town but I am not? I am not shedding any light on the 3rd host because nobody listens to a damn word I say anyhow. All I see in your post is a lot of crap with nothing really to it. According to you it seems like we should not look at anyone who did not vote mrjk and with only three hosts to start the game and one just killed it is only logical that I would hammer another instead of trying to sway the voting elsewhere. Again, go ahead and lynch me. As I said before, fill your boots. As for being flabbergasted on people being suspicious of me I have every right to be because logic has been thrown out the window. Remember how you posted earlier you were peeved that everyone ran you out on a rail last game when you did nothing but try and prove you were town? You are doing the exact same thing to me in this game. For what it is worth (which is not much) my biggest suspects are Peanut and starseed. Peanut just reeks of scum or turned based on her hiding in the weeds and her voting pattern and starseed for going against the grain last vote and his weird posts like "good game everyone". I also think there is a very good chance HG is turned or a host as well.

[dissentowner]

And how would one of the earlier votes on biz have more weight? If I was scum I could have unvoted at a later time. So you think I am the third host and seeing where the momentum was I tried hiding myself by hurting my sides chances huge by hammering? Would it not have made more sense to try and go with starseed and try to get some momentum going on PE?

I find it harder this time with only 3 scum. Everything turns into a WIFOM. Even looking at the voting history. I question my self: Are these people playing for the moment and voting like a bad guy or trying to conceal themselves by voting for a turned or scum. I keep going around in circles. Everything everyone has done could be flipped to make it look like they did a scum move.
I don't understand how we only have had one person say they received the spore? Do we have that many turned? Are people afraid of admitting they got the spore?

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

So why is HG so convincing of being town but I am not?

Yesterday's actions aren't the only reasons I have HG in my likely town list. I've had him there for a while, possibly as early as day 2/3. I'll try and find the post where I stated it.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

All I see in your post is a lot of crap with nothing really to it.

Exactly. It's your list of "accomplishments" that you think makes you a confirmed townie. I don't think it does.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

According to you it seems like we should not look at anyone who did not vote mrjk and with only three hosts to start the game and one just killed it is only logical that I would hammer another instead of trying to sway the voting elsewhere.

I'm not saying this at all. I'm saying we shouldn't eliminate people solely based on they voted for mrk and biz. I've said it before, starseed is my number one suspect for the third host. I also have suspicions on you, PE and Peanut, in some order. It's not a stretch to think that the 3rd host would vote for both mrk and biz to try and blend in. It would be way more suspicious to try and sway the votes, when we are one away from hammer with only 12 hours until deadline. biz's fate was sealed at that point. The best move for the 3rd host is to blend in.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Again, go ahead and lynch me.

This feels like a bluff.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Remember how you posted earlier you were peeved that everyone ran you out on a rail last game when you did nothing but try and prove you were town? You are doing the exact same thing to me in this game.

I killed Girly by myself. You were the 5th vote on something that was already decided. This isn't the same situation. I also haven't voted for you. I'm asking you to explain yourself. I don't see how you hammering is proof. It's akin to the puck sliding towards an open net, that is 100% going to go in, and you slap it over the line right before it crosses with no one around you. If you had pushed during the day to vote biz, and GGG picked biz because of it, then I'd say that was worthy of being town.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

For what it is worth (which is not much) my biggest suspects are Peanut and starseed. Peanut just reeks of scum or turned based on her hiding in the weeds and her voting pattern and starseed for going against the grain last vote and his weird posts like "good game everyone". I also think there is a very good chance HG is turned or a host as well.

starseed is my #1 suspect right now. That doesn't mean I don't find you suspicious. I've stated for many days that I thought Peanut was turned.

Although I have HG as likely town, the biggest reason I could be suspicious of him is I feel like he is mirroring me right now. GGG posted a day or two ago something about he thought HG playing the way he did was in his bag of tricks. I can't find the post right now. Our lists are the same. He is on you as for the same reasons I am. I'm hoping we are just thinking the same. I stated at the beginning of the game he was playing like Oling in Smash. The person that agreed with me on this one was mrk. mrk was a host. I don't think the feud between mrk and HG was staged.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

Pushing to lynch Girly
Oling - switched late
HG
Diss
Timbo
Bizaro86
Devo - I put devo and squigs in active but they were less vocal than others on this lid
Squiggs

Quietly lynched girly
Lego
Peanut
GGG - I include myself here as by the end of the day I was ready to vote her out based on me believing she was more likely scum then unturned. Feel free to move me to actively against if you'd like
ECF
SebC - voted to lynch her, unvoted then actively lurked the rest of the day

Actively Against -
Oling - at the end
GGG - at the start
MrKacjz
Party - less active than others
Pux - less active than others

Here is a list done up by Oling after the Girly lynch, green is town and red is host, black is unknown. Continuing the trend of mrkajz and bizaro trying to not be linked.

Is the 3rd host one of the 'quiet' lynchers, starseed or peanut?

I didn't get as far into the thread as I would have liked, but I really think if people have some time they should be reading through.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Vote results:

activeStick vote:


GirlSports vote:


I think it's less likely a host would vote for the lynched passenger in both votes. If that is true then you can take out squiggs, bizaro, Timbo, devo, and ECF.

The leaves Oling, GGG, diss, Lego Man, Peanut as people who voted for 1 of the passengers.

Oling and GGG have voted activeStick and Timbo - I doubt they are both hosts, as I can't see them wanting to vote the same both times.

Diss voted me and Girly - Voting for me in round 1 is kind of a throwaway, as I wasn't really in play for votes. The reasoning was I was trying to put attention on everything but me.

Lego Man voted Girly both times - It is odd that after his first vote against her on Day 1, he comes back on Day 2 and says he thinks she is town but still votes for her anyway.

Peanut voted ECF and Girly - Randomly votes ECF on day 1 because he is a middle of the pack poster. She seems confused a lot of the time and seems to always have a reason for not being around much. Could she be a host?

Then we have people who haven't voted for any of the people who were lynched. Puxlut (town), Seb, Party Elephant, mrkajz.

Seb voted for Girly and no one - I can't see his posting style being a host, but that's really the only reason I think he could be a passenger. It's tough to go back and say that any of his posts implicate him on anything.

Party Elephant voted Girly and me - Had the snap vote on GGG, then switches to Girly "because of the vote count". At the time he voted Girly he had 2 votes on himself, there were 2 on activeStick, and 2 on Girly (he was the 3rd).

Mrkajz voted Girly and Timbo - Voted for Party Elephant because he thought he was a lurker, and pulls the vote because he didn't notice PE was in NZ and changes to Girly. Votes for Timbo because he didn't like the way the activeStick voting went. He wants us to focus on the first vote, says it a few times. I feel like he piggybacks on peoples theories/logic a lot rather than coming up with his own. Is it a safety valve for him later, so he can say he just went along with so-and so?

I'll have to go back and look to see who got upset about my logic that it was less likely hosts would vote for both lynches.

[Hockeyguy15]

Looks like peanut, Lego, and PE disagreed with my reasoning with PE being the most outspoken and used it as a reason to vote for me.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Peanut

And you. You also voted for ActiveStick and Girly. So guess you're implicitly putting yourself in the "less likely a host would vote for the lynched passenger in both votes" category.

And apologies for being confused and busy. I've never played before, or even read along, but I think I'm getting the hang of it slowly. And I actually am just really busy with work and family. I am making an effort to prioritize the game more, though. It's pretty fun.

Originally Posted by Lego Man

I do have to whole heartedly disagree with you on the both vote=not scum theory. I think the chances are higher that scum votes both times this early in the game. Still really easy to cover your tracks.

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Posts like this are exactly why I'm suspicious of you. You just declare that a host wouldn't vote the way you voted, therefore it must be one of the people you list. Are we just supposed to gloss over the logic that got you there? It's the way you write it, like it should be a certainty to all of us that no host would vote that way, that further leads me to believe you are a host.

vote hockeyguy15

Here are the quotes from the 3 of them.

[Party Elephant]

I decided to clean up my notes a bit, ignoring unvotes and focusing only on final votes. These are the voting records of our known scum:

bizarro's votes were on activestick, Girlysports, East Coast Flame, mrkajz (this was the post deadline "vote"), Party Elephant, and Timbo.

mrkajz voted for Girlysports, Timbo, Hockeyguy15, starseed, devo, and Timbo.

With the exception of bizarro's gamble that oling wouldn't break the tie on day 4, neither of them ever left their final vote on a known scum. If we are to assume that at some point scum voted for scum, then the only options left in here are me, starseed and hockeyguy. It's also possible, based on the trend I've highlighted here, that bizarro and mrkajz never voted for any scum.

[squiggs96]

This morning I went back and read all of Peanuts posts from the game trying to find anything in them. There isn't much. Most of them are her asking rule questions, saying she needs to reread posts, replying to people asking why she isn't posting, saying she missed the deadline, or posting after hammer. She hasn't posted in three days. If she is a host, maybe she just lays low to let the rest of us debate without thinking she's part of the town. If she's town, she's not helping. By not helping the town, she's helping the host. I don't want to sound like a broken record, but I wish she'd post more. With only 8 players left in the game, and it possibly being 1 host and 2 turned, we can't afford to lynch a townie. We are possibly at lynch or lose. If you're turned, I don't really care since you aren't influencing or even participating in the votes. If you're town, get in here and help find the 3rd host. You're part of a team, and at this point we need all team members to be pulling their weight.

While reading Peanut's posts I was lead to a few posts from the time when Lego was still alive that stuck out to me.

Knowing now that mrk is scum, Pux is the Anomaly and Oling was unturned at the time, this post by HG reads very well at #592. http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=592

Here is Lego's post at #978. http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=978

I know a few focused on the XXX part of it, including an unturned Oling. Although I think it's suspicious, I want to focus on his comments on bizaro and mrkajz. He says biz's post at #567 goes a long way to convincing him he's town. Oling calls him out for this specific point at #986. He also says he is forced to put mrkajz as town because of mrk's post here:

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

While Seb has been a very different player the whole game, the lack of voting doesn't sit great with me. I suppose I could see his side that he was going to vote Girly, and thus a non-vote means you support the leading vote person, but it just seems like a sneaky way around it. Easy to say in the posts now that he supported the vote, but 10 pages later when someone is running through vote patterns, his "support" against Girly won't be as easy to document.

I don't mind Lego's low post count, he does seem to to have pretty well thought out posts, that have good quality. I do not like him saying "well I don't think we should vote out Girly, but here's my vote!" Seems like a solid way to play both sides of the fence. I don't quite know where I stand on Lego after that move - moving up on my radar for sure.

Timbo has not moved off my top spot for now though. He was the third vote on Girly, after being the fourth vote for Active - nice and in the middle. His reason for voting Girly was a somewhat reasonable one - he wanted to stop the spore. I personally don't agree with that reasoning, but there were a number of people in town that obviously agreed, so I can't single him out for that specifically.

TL;dr - Timbo is top of my list, but I didn't like how Lego and Seb played yesterday, especially around the voting.

In this post mrk puts suspicion on Seb (started town) and Timbo (town) for their voting patterns. In between there he says he doesn't mind Lego's low post count because his posts are well thought out, but says he is moving up his radar. It's possible that mrk put three townies on his list, but I think it's likely that a host makes a list that includes other hosts. Since on Lego (starseed) can be a host here, it makes me suspicious. mrk and biz did a good job on never voting for each other and never being on the same person at the same time. However, they both implicated starseed multiple times.

On Lego's list he puts biz and mrk as town. His reasons for suspicion on PE, devo and myself don't really hold water. His suspicion of Peanut is spot on.

I would still like to lynch starseed today. If we had more people I'd say Peanut. I am still suspicious of dissentowner.

[GGG]

I would love to lynch Diss.

How you can think your actions yesterday would clear you in anyway is beyond me. You jumped on my peanut wagon before anyone else was voting and you followed my Bizaro wagon. Nothing you did yesterday lends itself to making you more scum or more town. And the pity party you are throwing isn't helping your case. I firmly believe that you get yourself lynched in this game.

HG is town because he drove the vote against mrkajz for days

You did not do this with anyone. You passively tried to lynch Bizaro which is great scum play. You did railroaded Timbo out of here on a day where you could have been turned after coasting.

If you are uncomfortable with the perception other players have about you dig into the past and post who is scum. Don't just post I think so in so is scum. That is not good enough.

All of that said, I think you are town. Turned maybe but not scum. Your early suspicion of Bizaro yesterday before posting really started wouldn't be a scum play.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Here are the lists so far, ordered by who hasn't voted on Day 8's opening post:

bizaro86

squiggs96
Town - squiggs, GGG, Pux, HG, starseed
Turned - Peanut, PE
Host - bizaro, diss

Puxlut

GGG

Peanut

Party Elephant

starseed
Town -
Turned -
Host - PE, Peanut

Hockeyguy15
Town - GGG, Pux, starseed, squiggs, HG
Turned - PE, Peanut
Host - Diss, bizaro

dissentowner
Town - dissentowner, GGG, Pux, starseed, PE
Turned - HG, Peanut
Host - bizaro, squiggs



There have been multiple people in here who have stated there isn't much talk. They are right. We need to be more active, and that starts with making lists. Only three of us have made complete lists. GGG and starseed have given partial lists. Others have nothing.

How do you have Starseed as town here but now have Starseed as scum?

Vote: Peanut
Tomorrow might be busy for me. At least this way I don't wind up with a no-vote.