CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[dissentowner]

I am thinking Peanut is at least turned, if not a host. Same with starseed at this point. Waiting to hear from others first.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

So you think I am scum or turned but I was the one who brought the hammer down on bizaro. That makes no sense at all Peanut.

The votes on everybody follow GGG days are meaningless in terms of alignment. The discussion before hand is meaningful but casting the hammer vote meaningless.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by GGG

The votes on everybody follow GGG days are meaningless in terms of alignment. The discussion before hand is meaningful but casting the hammer vote meaningless.

So you really think a scum would cast a hammer vote on his Captain?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Peanut

Ugh sorry I missed it all. I went out for dinner with friends and got home at 11. By the time I logged in at work, the hammer had dropped.

For what it's worth, my list was Starseed and Dissentowner as top suspects for host. My top turned suspect was Bizaro. Obviously was wrong about Bizaro, but my thinking there was that he had been really quite under the radar for most of the game, not on a lot of lists or making waves. I thought that would potentially make him a good spore target and that he had possibly been turned and not checked by GGG (I don't think?).

Dissentowner was my top suspect yesterday considering I voted for him. I found it suspicious that he kept pushing that Starseed, Bizaro and myself didn't get on the mrKajz vote on Day 7 even though the whole thing went down in 1.5 hours. I also think he was blantantly ignoring the real risk that if GGG happens to pick a town target, of course the scum would happily cast their votes in agreement with him for the dual purpose of gaining town cred and also they would be hoping to oust another townie. Starseed I've been suspicious of since the Lego switch out. The posts at the end of the day yesterday are also really suspicious. Now I'm wondering if there's only one scum left, is Starseed the remaining scum and he was defending Bizaro hoping to derail the hammer? But that would mean Dissentowner is not scum. So perhaps Dissentowner is a turned and Starseed is the scum. That would make more sense given GGG said he checked Starseed last night. Starseed as scum and Dissentowner as a turned.

I don't know who the other turned is. I don't have a good sense between PE or HG. Squiggs was after Oling until the end so I don't think he would be a turned, because they would have known each other was turned thanks to their turned thread. Unless Squiggs was turned after Oling was killed, which could be possible, logistically.

I currently think the best move today is Starseed, but am willing to wait to hear the explanation post from him.

This is an odd post -

1.5 hrs at a random time not near a deadline is not a reason to suspect someone. And what options did scum have vote or wait. Both result in the same outcome.

If I picked wrong we lost, it's not a risk just a consequence. The game was almost guaranteed to be over. So why be concerned about it.

This assumes there are two turned. Only scum and turned know if this is true.


It also discusses a lot of other people but provides no logic to lynching Starseed. Seems like trying to jump on a townie mistake.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

So you really think a scum would cast a hammer vote on his Captain?

Yes,

You have 2 scum. And up to 2 turned. During the day they can't communicate to coordinate a lynch. You had already committed to following me the previous day. So what would your options be?

You could not post and wait and hope that more votes move to Party following Starseeds post. No one can unvote as it immediately exposes them.

You could vote for party immediately expose yourself as scum for not following me when you said you would and the game would be over.

So yes if you are scum your behaviour would have been the same.

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by GGG

This is an odd post -

1.5 hrs at a random time not near a deadline is not a reason to suspect someone. And what options did scum have vote or wait. Both result in the same outcome.

I agree. Diss was the one suspecting people for not participating in the vote at the random time. That's what I find it odd.

If I picked wrong we lost, it's not a risk just a consequence. The game was almost guaranteed to be over. So why be concerned about it.

ok? I'm saying that following your votes is not indicative one way or the other. Just as you yourself have said. It means nothing that Diss hammered Bizaro yesterday.

This assumes there are two turned. Only scum and turned know if this is true.

yes, I'm assuming there are two turned, based on the scenarios laid out by many of us in this thread. I thought the whole reason we were worried about lynch or lose was predicated on two turned?

It also discusses a lot of other people but provides no logic to lynching Starseed. Seems like trying to jump on a townie mistake.

i've been suspicious of Starseed since the Lego switch out. I'm not going to go back and re-quote all my posts throughout the thread, I post from my phone. I've detailed my suspicions numerous times. And the posts at the end of the game day yesterday seemed in defense of Bizaro and directly opposed to your theories. Which have been solid thus far.

Easiest to put my responses in bold in the quote. Posting from phone.

[GGG]

Thanks peanut, the clarifications around diss help. I was reading it backwards.

I do think at some point during the day though we all need to go back and layout a complete case with quotes on who we want to vote for.

[GGG]

After tonight I'm gone until Saturday evening. Everyone needs to dig back through and make their case. Again as we could be at lynch or lose don't vote until we have a bunch of discussion.

I think we need to be careful with Starseeds last post. It's real wifomy. And if you look to last game he lied about investigating Hockeyguy then admitted it killing the town so he is prone to stupid outbursts in crunch time. If it's Starseed the votes should show it.

[starseed]

OK, home now. Before I go over my line of reasoning on biz, I will update my list.

Town:
GGG/Pux and probably HG

PE has yet to chime in, but he must have had the spore and probably gave it to pux. I do not see how we didn't have 2 turned before today, unless a townie did not speak up about it? Or maybe a turned gave it to biz without knowing he was the captain? Either way, PE and biz do not really work as teammates I think.

Need more time to go over scenarios, but turned/host list is broken on my end. Haven't read all of today's posts, but my early picks for the two turned are amongst peanut, squiggs and diss, with the host probably also amongst them.

One of the reasons I had biz as town was that he was targeting a lot of players in the first four days. Townies GGG and Oling voted for 8 different players. Scum mrkaj voted for only 4 different players. Biz voted for 7 different players. I felt that the scum would not want to make waves and enemies of players by voting for too many of them. This was incorrect...

I did not have biz on my list of host at all. He was very low on the list. When seeing that every other player chose biz as their host choice, I saw red flags. Only peanut had not revealed her list (she didnt have time to post it before hammer). This meant that at least one scum had to have listed biz as one of their top scum choices. They may not know biz is the captain, or a host in general, but they do have more information than us in what the messages contain, so they must have a good idea by now.

Then having diss as the second host, with my top two scum suspects on HG/squiggs turned list had me freaking out. The hosts are exactly who the turned want the agent investigating. I was certain the biz/diss movement was scum backed. I was sure the late vote on mrkaj on day 4 was a mistake. In hindsight it was pretty obviously too convenient. I was also sure that his push on PE on day 4 was a townie move, and GGG and I later backed it up with a couple PE votes.

There was also a post from legoman about how biz had a very pro-town post in the first couple days related to how we should proceed with the Oling/Girly spore situation.

I was certain biz would flip town and we would lose. I was hoping GGG could come in and explain the quick biz vote and change his mind.

Now I know how Rathji felt in CPM2!

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

After tonight I'm gone until Saturday evening. Everyone needs to dig back through and make their case. Again as we could be at lynch or lose don't vote until we have a bunch of discussion.

I think we need to be careful with Starseeds last post. It's real wifomy. And if you look to last game he lied about investigating Hockeyguy then admitted it killing the town so he is prone to stupid outbursts in crunch time. If it's Starseed the votes should show it.

I have nothing going on at work before 11 tomorrow (then a stampede party) so I am going to try and do a summary of how the votes went, including the unvotes.

[GGG]

My vote on Bizaro was basically it was HG or Bizaro. So i laid out this "HG was faking is fight with MrKajz to see what would happen. Sorry HG for making you do all that posting.

The most interesting response from that exercise was Diss who switched HG from turned (which had limited probability) to host. He was my original planned investigation target before I got derailed by Starseeds last post.

However if you go back through the votes it's pretty clear that it was either HG or Biz so if HG was town Biz had to be scum.

So confirmed town (not neccesarily unturned) for me are: HG, Squiggs, Pux, GGG

Leaving Starseed, Diss, Party and Peanut to go through vote patterns when i get back.

[Party Elephant]

Hey guys, sorry for the significant drop in my posting lately. Like I mentioned earlier I have been super flat out at work and barely have any spare time these days. I'm trying to keep up though. Will post some thoughts soon.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by starseed

OK, home now. Before I go over my line of reasoning on biz, I will update my list.

Town:
GGG/Pux and probably HG

PE has yet to chime in, but he must have had the spore and probably gave it to pux. I do not see how we didn't have 2 turned before today, unless a townie did not speak up about it? Or maybe a turned gave it to biz without knowing he was the captain? Either way, PE and biz do not really work as teammates I think.

I'm not sure why you think I must have had the spore last night (I didn't). The way I figure the spore has gone like this the last few nights:
Night 5 - oling turned
Night 6 - other turned
Night 7 - other turned (spore is clear of oling when GGG kills him)
Night 8 - no turn

This accounts for why no one has reported the spore. If we're still playing tomorrow we can confirm the no turn with a reveal obviously.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

So you think I am scum or turned but I was the one who brought the hammer down on bizaro. That makes no sense at all Peanut.

Don't get too worked up about it diss. The captain himself had this to say about me hammering mrkajz:

Originally Posted by bizaro86

That doesn't seem especially convincing, to be honest. It was 100% obvious that whoever GGG picked was getting hammered. I would expect that the other hosts would have voted mrkajz to try and distance themselves, that's the only play that makes sense.

Voting for mrkajz on a day when he was 100% getting voted out doesn't overshadow the 3 times you voted for a townie when mrkajz was the 2nd choice/main alternative.

[Hockeyguy15]

Only the alive people left assuming that GGG, Puxlut are town and no one else. I also left the host votes and unvotes on, all unvotes are in green.

Vote 1:
activeStick (8): squiggs96, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15,
GirlySports (5): Lego Man, Party Elephant, mrkajz44,
Party Elephant (1): mrkajz,
East Coast Flame (1): Peanut
Hockeyguy15 (1): dissentowner
GGG (0): PE
Squiggs (0): HG

I'll do analysis after, I just thought other people may want to use this to help them as well.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by GGG

My vote on Bizaro was basically it was HG or Bizaro. So i laid out this "HG was faking is fight with MrKajz to see what would happen. Sorry HG for making you do all that posting.

The most interesting response from that exercise was Diss who switched HG from turned (which had limited probability) to host. He was my original planned investigation target before I got derailed by Starseeds last post.

However if you go back through the votes it's pretty clear that it was either HG or Biz so if HG was town Biz had to be scum.

So confirmed town (not neccesarily unturned) for me are: HG, Squiggs, Pux, GGG

Leaving Starseed, Diss, Party and Peanut to go through vote patterns when i get back.

Really? So before you had me as town but now you are suspicious of me because I hammered the Captain? I am sorry but I disagree with your earlier statement, if I was scum no matter what I had said earlier on there is no way in hell after losing the second in command I would bring the hammer down on my own Captain. I most certainly would not have listed bizaro as my number one suspect either. I am pretty damn frustrated at this point, I was worried about that hammer vote because if I was wrong about bizaro we were screwed but when I was right I was not only excited we got the Captain but I felt that would surely confirm me as town. Instead there is this crap.

[Hockeyguy15]

Vote 2:
Voted:
GirlySports (9): dissentowner, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, Lego Man, squiggs96, Peanut
Timbo (3): bizaro, mrkajz44
Hockeyguy15 (2): Party Elephant
Peanut (0): Squiggs

[Hockeyguy15]

Vote 3:
Voted:
East Coast Flame (7): bizaro86, Party Elephant, Peanut
mrkajz44 (5): Hockeyguy15, squiggs96, Lego Man,
Hockeyguy15 (3): Diss, PE, mrkajz44, dissentowner,
Lego (0): Squiggs
Timbo (0): Diss, Peanut
Diss (0): HG, bizaro,
PE (0): Lego

[Hockeyguy15]

Voted:
Peanut (2): Squiggs,
Mrkajz (1): Squiggs, HG, Diss, starseed
PE (1): Bizaro, starseed,
HG (1): Diss,
Starseed (1): Peanut, mrkajz, PE, Squiggs, Diss

This is how it ended before sudden death.

[Hockeyguy15]

Forgot to updated the final numbers for votes in my last post, sorry.