CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[starseed]

Because biz could not have been a turned on day 4, and host biz would have known oling was an unturned town who could have voted with him to oust mrkaj. Host biz would have either stayed in the background or voted for me.

Yet somehow he is on your host list today over PE who has supported mrkaj while claiming to be against him.

Having diss as your other host is also odd. Why is peanut turned now? What has changed? Why would she even be a target for the hosts over the more influential posters? It doesn't fit.

[starseed]

Also, if I'm right about PE and peanut, they are the exact two that would be on a turned's list as turned, as they are who you want ggg investigating.

[Hockeyguy15]

Day 4 Bizaro being host could have been feeling the heat after being in on the first 3 lynches, and didn't want to be hammer on you knowing you are town. It was also the second day in a row mrkajz had barely escaped being lynched so maybe he thought it was inevitable that mrkajz was going down and was looking to get some credibility. If the hosts are PE, Peanut and mrkajz I can't see them voting 3 in a row on you earlier on. It's more likely that there would be a later vote to save mrkjaz or hammer him.

Voted:
Starseed (6): Peanut, mrkajz44, Party Elephant, squiggs96, Puxlut, dissentowner
mrkajz44 (7): Timbo, Hockeyguy15, devo22, Starseed, SebC, GGG, bizaro86

As for Peanut she would be a good target for the spore. This late in the game I think the hosts would want to build their numbers, so someone who is quiet wouldn't be a bad choice for them. At this point they only need the added numbers to lynch, not steer. Peanut has really flown under the radar all game, so it would be an asset for the hosts to have someone who isn't really a target for lynch/investigation.

As for Diss as the other host I've posted the early connection I see between him and mrkajz. His arguments against me (and the Timbo connection as well) haven't been accurate and from my point of view they were manufactured in a similar way to mrkajz. He and PE were a close choice for me but PE dropping his charge against me first with Diss following shortly after is kind of what swung the balance for me.

[dissentowner]

Vote:bizaro86

I believe that is hammer

[Mazrim]

Vote Count

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes on any one player to hammer.

Hasn't Voted (1): Puxlut

Voted
bizaro86 (5): GGG, squiggs96, Party Elephant, Hockeyguy15, dissentowner
Party Elephant (2): bizaro86, starseed
dissentowner (1): Peanut

Bizaro backed away slowly, looking ready to strike at any moment. He turned away from the group, facing one of the bulkheads and said "You should have listened. Once you open your ears to them, you become enlightened. Only....why...why did they not tell us this would happen?"

"WE KNOW EVERYTHING! We should have predicted this would happen! Did they lie...? Maybe I wasn't listening well enough..."

When he turned back around, he was not the same person standing before them. A couple of the passengers recognized him though, and before long, everyone knew that the Captain of this ship stood before them.

"I'm so sorry" he said sadly, "You're all so much stronger than I could ever be. Don't give up."

Without another word, he took a step forward, and dissolved right in front of the group. Any trace of him was gone in seconds. The passengers stood in stunned silence at what they just witnessed. This was the fate of anyone taken by the alien species. They had to fight it to the end.

bizaro86, Captain, Lynched Day 8

It is now Night 8. You may not post in the thread during this time. If you have night actions, they must be PM'd to me by Wednesday, July 8th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time. Please title the PM "Night 8 Action".

[bizaro86]

-+--+--+Death Post+--+--+-

<Buzzz crackle phstft> This your Captain speaking. We've enjoyed having you on Bacterian Transport Airways. I understand some sort of mutiny is ongoing. That's all well and good, but you really should be aware that no species have ever defeated the Bacterians. So, really, all you're doing is delaying the inevitable. This system will succumb, as have all the others. Please, sit back, relax, and enjoy your spore.



Bizaro86 out. See you all in the post-game thread!

[Mazrim]

The world was on fire. The pilot of the prototype ship wasn't sure that correct, though. Since the flames seemed to phase into existence on all the walls of the corridor he was in, it should be an illusion. The temperature warnings from the Vic Viper told him he might as well be near a cooler class of star at this point.

"An entire planet converted to a living being, and I'm surprised by this?" the pilot said to himself. The chance to laugh at his own misfortune was cut short by a fireball careening out of the flames towards his ship. A quick trigger finger on his lasers prevented any collision with the ship, but the debris created by destroying the flaming meteor peppered the hull. Then another fireball appeared, and another, and very quickly the pilot realized he would not be able to keep up. The flames on the ceiling of the corridor grew violent and what looked like the mouth of a volcano appeared.

Despite hanging on for dear life as he avoided fireballs, the pilot couldn't help but think that the military would be ecstatic on the flight data he was collecting right now for the prototype. The fact that he was still alive was enough data for him.

It is now Day 9. With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 3 votes to deadline lynch.

Vote Count

Hasn't Voted (8): squiggs96, Puxlut, GGG, Peanut, Party Elephant, starseed, Hockeyguy15, dissentowner

The deadline is Monday, July 13th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time. Hammer cannot be dropped before Thursday, July 9th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

[dissentowner]

Anyone else find starseed's posts right before the lynch a pretty clear indicator on what side he is?

[starseed]

Well, I fracked up. Sorry GGG. I know it seems unlikely after that display, but I am neither turned nor host. I likely wasted your investigation today. Good news is max of 2 turned!

/paperbag

This is why I have never won a mafia game

[Hockeyguy15]

And then there was 1.

So we for sure have a max of 2 turned since the game is still going.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Since we're all posting lists, I'll post one and then follow up with a few posts explaining my thoughts. I went back through a bunch of stuff and made notes, it's too much for one post.

Town: Pux, GGG, myself
Host: PE/Starseed
Town potentially turned:Squiggs, Hockey Guy
Wildcard: I see potential for a Peanut/Diss scum team along with mrkajz. If that's the case then PE/Starseed are probably townies, and I owe PE a big apology.

Hopefully what follows will make up for not being around much on the weekend.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Squiggs: I voiced this yesterday quite a bit and still feel the same way today. He has too many posts where he seems to know more than the rest of us. It's not one post in particular, but more like a "death of 1000 cuts". Just too many times he seems to be in the know. He's also filling the thread with the needless back and forth with Oling with a little too much vigor than required if he was town. Everyone gets accused in here, and most people submit responses and then move on. Squiggs just can't let the Oling spat die and that just seems odd. In my opinion someone without anything to hide should just say their piece and move on.

HG: Ever since I brought it up that he was steering, he's settled down quite a bit. I'm not sure if that is because he realized he play wasn't great for town, or his scum buddies to him to back down. Now with his vote analysis, he's fallen a bit more for me in terms of suspicion

Starseed: Lego was always a bit of an interesting read and the fact that he was replaced cannot be overlooked as a scum factor. I feel his input is somewhat lacking and the only post I really remember from Starseed was his mega post on everyone when he was on the block. Other than that, he's just blending in perfectly. Too perfectly.

So they both have me, starseed and Squiggs in their list in some way or another.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

So they both have me, starseed and Squiggs in their list in some way or another.

I will be having a much longer post coming up that will include this, but here's another list from bizaro a little further back.

Originally Posted by bizaro86

My top three right now are party elephant, starseed, and squiggs.

Party elephant is as discussed endlessly. I'd be willing to bet the game on him being host/turned, but I realize I'm getting no support on that. Honestly, if I suddenly started getting a huge rush of party elephant support that would make me question the people who changed their minds, as that might indicate that he was town and they were going for the last kill.

For starseed, I've had suspicions of him since he was Lego. We ran him up the flagpole once, but it got lost in the day with the tie. He's kind of always been my second choice for scum, (which is ironically where he ended up on this list). That by itself makes me extra suspicious, they have played scummy enough to be on the radar, but not enough to ever attract much voting momentum.

As for you squiggs, this whole oling crusade with a bunch of evidence from last game seems really suspicious to me. Sure, it makes sense to see who's playing style compares to last game in day 1/2 when there isn't much to go on. In day 7, when the actions from this game can be evaluated, I feel like you're either letting your emotions get the better of you if you're town, or playing that card to try and make your oling case more convincing if you're host/turned. I'm 50/50 on you, so if I see momentum for squiggs votes from people I think are more likely than not to be townies I'd consider a vote.

biz's top 3 is PE, starseed, and me. We know biz is the Captain. What are the odds that a captain makes a list without putting at least one other scum on it? I think it's got to be low. Some of the lists from previous games I've seen ended up having 2/4 being scum. biz wasn't in danger when he made these lists either, so it's not like he was near death and was thinking the lists would be analyzed the next day.

[GGG]

I checked starseed based on his last post.

[GGG]

Starseed can you go through the logic of making the post you did?

[starseed]

I tried to with the earlier posts. I was convinced biz couldn't have been host, and saw everyone but me have him on their host list. I even started panicking thinking you were turned. Will post more on that train wreck tonight.

[squiggs96]

Now that we have dead hosts (mrk and biz) and a dead turned (Oling), we have some solid information we can go back and look at.

When Day 6 started, we were notified that Seb was killed. We now know that it was the hosts who did it. The first post of the day is HG saying the Agent is alive. Three posts later at #2037, biz posts that the Agent bailed us out. This is obviously false since he was the one who killed Seb. Biz also votes for PE right away, putting the second vote on him after Pux opened the day with her vote on PE. I'm trying to figure out if he put the vote on PE to start the train going that way or trying to separate himself from PE.

I feel Oling turned Night 5 after Seb was killed. He was a dick through most of the game, but he ramped it up big time on Day 6. He made some claims and questions that he knew wouldn't be answered. He went pretty hard after me. Once I brought up the captain could have killed Seb, he went full throttle. What I'm interested in is seeing how the votes went on me, knowing what we do now.

Here are votes against me in order:
2042 - Oling (turned)
2055 - GGG (Town - Agent)
2063 - starseed (unknown)
2086 - PE (unknown)
2108 - mrk (host)

People that hadn't voted for me at the time were: Peanut, HG, Pux (Anomaly), biz (host), diss, Timbo (town), myself (town). I'm two away from hammer, and the hosts still have biz to vote. In the next little while starseed pulls his vote stating he thinks he wants to wait for Peanut. Is this a worry that there are too many scum on me, and they figure there is enough momentum that some townies will help out?

In post 2163 Oling makes his list:
Town: Pux (Anom), GGG (Agent), Dis (unknown), mrk (Host)
Neutral: HG (unknown), starseed (unknown), Timbo (town)
Scum: PE (unknown), Peanut (unknown), biz (Host), squiggs (town)

So Oling has a host in both the town and the scum categories. It's tougher to guess where he put the third one, since he was turned and doesn't have full access to the hosts.

In posts 2192/2194 (same post basically), diss tries to get me to move my vote from Oling to PE. In 2208 diss moves his vote from mrk to PE. In 2216 Oling moves his vote to PE. At 2227 Peanut puts her vote on PE. At 2244 Oling moves his vote to Timbo. At this point there are 4 votes on PE 3 on me.

PE posts his list at 2259:

Player - PE's list - Actual
Timbo - host - town
bizaro - town - host
squiggs - host - town
Pux - town - town (anom)
GGG - town - town (Agent)
Peanut - turned - unknown
starseed - town - unknown
mrkajz - host - host
HG - town/turned - unknown
Oling - town - turned
diss - town - unknown

This is a list that doesn't have much right on it. His hosts are Timbo, me and mrkajz.

The votes start going towards Timbo in this order:
2244 - Oling (turned)
2287 - diss (unknown)
2301 - PE (unknown)
2450 - bizaro - host
2472 - mrkajz - host
2481 - Peanut - (unknown) Votes to save herself, as the other side was going for her
2487 - timbo - town - Votes to avoid what would be a deadlock

The people that were trying to vote me out at the beginning of the day, and then ended it on Timbo were:

Oling (turned), PE (unknown), mrkajz (host). Oling was the first vote on both.

[squiggs96]

On Day 7 at post 2512 mrk agrees with me that someone should have come in to say they had the spore and passed it on night 6 if they were unturned. If Oling was turned on Night 5, he would have sent it on night 6. For how he needed to play day 6 and 7, he couldn't risk letting people know he passed it, as if the Agent investigates him he dies (which ended up happening). mrk and Oling both start of the day talking about lynch or lose. I feel this is fear mongering.

In post 2534 biz posts his list of top three hosts being PE, starseed and me. I would guess the captain would have at least one host in his list. He wouldn't think he was about to be lynched, so he might not be as careful. Even if he thought he was close, maybe he still puts one in there. mrk and Oling were both alive at this point, and neither made his list. As pointed out by HG biz and mrk both had lists where starseed, HG and myself were some form of scum.

Way back on Day 4 Pux starts the day at post 1263 saying we are right back at square 1 with ECF dying. I say we need to look at what ECF said during his death posts. At 1164 ECF says he least trusts mrk and then votes for biz. That's outstanding. No wonder Oling in post 2547 wants to bring up my post where I say to look at ECF and he tries to discredit me. No wonder he does that with ECF getting both right. ECF also says he doesn't trust Lego (starseed). Did he get everything right way back then? That would be mighty impressive if he did.

Let's look at the votes on how they lynched ECF:
1 - GGG (town - Agent)
2 - Seb (town at this point)
3 - Oling (town at this point)
1171 - bizaro (host)

At this point the votes are 4-4-2 (HG-ECF-mrk)

1173 - I switch from biz to mrk to help out ECF
1175 - Timbo votes mrk
1179 - mrk attacks HG, Timbo and me, as we are the three most recent people to vote him, joining devo. That's at least three town (devo, timbo, me) and what I consider likely a 4th town (HG) voting for, what is now a known, host.

The votes are now 4-4-4 (HG-ECF-mrk).

1199 - Lego (starseed) moves his vote from PE to mrk
1210 - ECF moves his vote from bizaro to mrk

With 8 votes required to hammer, the votes are 4-4-6 (HG-ECF-mrk), with only Peanut not voting for one of the top three. There are less than six hours until deadline.

1231 - PE moves his vote from HG to ECF
1239 - devo moves his vote from mrk to ECF
1254 - Peanut moves her vote from Timbo to ECF

The vote count is now 3-7-5 (HG-ECF-mrk).

This is the vote that mrk kept saying there was scum movement getting the votes to him. Knowing what we know now, the most votes on mrk were 6:
devo (town), HG (unknown), squiggs (town), timbo (town), Lego/starseed (unknown), ECF (town). The only two who could possibly be hosts at this point are HG and starseed.

So when mrk kept repeating that it seemed like the whole vote was scum driven, here's who voted for ECF to save mrk: GGG (town - Agent), SebC (town at this point), Oling_Roachinen (town at this point), bizaro86 (host), Party Elephant (unknown), devo22 (town), Peanut (unknown).

The three votes on HG were: mrkajz44 (host), dissentowner (unknown), Puxlut (town - Anom).

There was a serious chance mrk could have been lynched until PE (unknown) moved from HG to ECF. Unfortunately for us devo swung the vote from ECF mrk to ECF and Peanut sealed it. If needed, mrk could have come off of HG and gone to ECF.

The two known hosts have split their votes, with one on the low man HG (mrk) and one on the lynched ECF (biz). Is the 3rd one on mrkajz? I feel hosts have to vote for hosts and put them on their lists to ensure they can say "I said he was a host". It makes sense to split the votes.

[Peanut]

Ugh sorry I missed it all. I went out for dinner with friends and got home at 11. By the time I logged in at work, the hammer had dropped.

For what it's worth, my list was Starseed and Dissentowner as top suspects for host. My top turned suspect was Bizaro. Obviously was wrong about Bizaro, but my thinking there was that he had been really quite under the radar for most of the game, not on a lot of lists or making waves. I thought that would potentially make him a good spore target and that he had possibly been turned and not checked by GGG (I don't think?).

Dissentowner was my top suspect yesterday considering I voted for him. I found it suspicious that he kept pushing that Starseed, Bizaro and myself didn't get on the mrKajz vote on Day 7 even though the whole thing went down in 1.5 hours. I also think he was blantantly ignoring the real risk that if GGG happens to pick a town target, of course the scum would happily cast their votes in agreement with him for the dual purpose of gaining town cred and also they would be hoping to oust another townie. Starseed I've been suspicious of since the Lego switch out. The posts at the end of the day yesterday are also really suspicious. Now I'm wondering if there's only one scum left, is Starseed the remaining scum and he was defending Bizaro hoping to derail the hammer? But that would mean Dissentowner is not scum. So perhaps Dissentowner is a turned and Starseed is the scum. That would make more sense given GGG said he checked Starseed last night. Starseed as scum and Dissentowner as a turned.

I don't know who the other turned is. I don't have a good sense between PE or HG. Squiggs was after Oling until the end so I don't think he would be a turned, because they would have known each other was turned thanks to their turned thread. Unless Squiggs was turned after Oling was killed, which could be possible, logistically.

I currently think the best move today is Starseed, but am willing to wait to hear the explanation post from him.

[squiggs96]

To wrap this up, and so it doesn't get buried in my wall of texts, I believe the third host is starseed. I find it odd that I voted for Lego a few times when he had extremely minimal posts, and then once he's subbed in, he immediately gets two votes, and suspicion creeps in.

bizaro tries to deflect that saying he's suspicious but there are other, more suspicious people out there. biz even gives a "if starseed is mafia, he's dangerous" line in post 1393. I'm not sure why a Captain would say that, unless he's trying to separate himself from him.

With all the flailing that went on near the end of Day 8, it doesn't make sense for him to be town. I never understood his reasoning that HG and I put Peanut and PE on our turned list, so because of that HG and I are the hosts. The only thing that does give him any town credit, is he voted PE. He could have easily voted biz and tried to blend in.

I won't vote until there is more discussion, but I believe this is where the vote should go.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Peanut

Ugh sorry I missed it all. I went out for dinner with friends and got home at 11. By the time I logged in at work, the hammer had dropped.

For what it's worth, my list was Starseed and Dissentowner as top suspects for host. My top turned suspect was Bizaro. Obviously was wrong about Bizaro, but my thinking there was that he had been really quite under the radar for most of the game, not on a lot of lists or making waves. I thought that would potentially make him a good spore target and that he had possibly been turned and not checked by GGG (I don't think?).

Dissentowner was my top suspect yesterday considering I voted for him. I found it suspicious that he kept pushing that Starseed, Bizaro and myself didn't get on the mrKajz vote on Day 7 even though the whole thing went down in 1.5 hours. I also think he was blantantly ignoring the real risk that if GGG happens to pick a town target, of course the scum would happily cast their votes in agreement with him for the dual purpose of gaining town cred and also they would be hoping to oust another townie. Starseed I've been suspicious of since the Lego switch out. The posts at the end of the day yesterday are also really suspicious. Now I'm wondering if there's only one scum left, is Starseed the remaining scum and he was defending Bizaro hoping to derail the hammer? But that would mean Dissentowner is not scum. So perhaps Dissentowner is a turned and Starseed is the scum. That would make more sense given GGG said he checked Starseed last night. Starseed as scum and Dissentowner as a turned.

I don't know who the other turned is. I don't have a good sense between PE or HG. Squiggs was after Oling until the end so I don't think he would be a turned, because they would have known each other was turned thanks to their turned thread. Unless Squiggs was turned after Oling was killed, which could be possible, logistically.

I currently think the best move today is Starseed, but am willing to wait to hear the explanation post from him.

So you think I am scum or turned but I was the one who brought the hammer down on bizaro. That makes no sense at all Peanut.