CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[bizaro86]

I dont think i want to bet the game in oling being scum, especially when the evidence is coloured by squiggs grudge from the last game. I get his play style is frustrating and aggressive, but if he's just an aggressive townie I'd prefer not to lose the game based on that misjudgement.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I dont think i want to bet the game in oling being scum, especially when the evidence is coloured by squiggs grudge from the last game. I get his play style is frustrating and aggressive, but if he's just an aggressive townie I'd prefer not to lose the game based on that misjudgement.

I've given enough reasons this game why he should be lynched. He has led us into the position we are currently in. Frustrating style or not, I've stated why I think we should lynch him.

If you don't think he's a host, who do you think they are?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I've given enough reasons this game why he should be lynched. He has led us into the position we are currently in. Frustrating style or not, I've stated why I think we should lynch him.

If you don't think he's a host, who do you think they are?

It doesn't matter if you are right or not about oling being a host. your strategy right now is wrong.

[Peanut]

Checking in. If we are lynch or lose (and we very well could be) maybe the GA should reveal if they feel they have info that would help the town? Today could be crucial.

Agree Oling is pretty suspicious. Not entirely following the logic of why we should hold off voting, but I will for now in case anyone has a spore claim or GA claim to be made.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Peanut

Checking in. If we are lynch or lose (and we very well could be) maybe the GA should reveal if they feel they have info that would help the town? Today could be crucial.

Agree Oling is pretty suspicious. Not entirely following the logic of why we should hold off voting, but I will for now in case anyone has a spore claim or GA claim to be made.

If there's as many as 5 scum it only takes one misplaced town vote for the scum to hammer, that's why.

[Party Elephant]

We haven't heard anything from starseed in 4 real time days. These are his most recent posts, including his unvote. They all take place about 24 hours before Timbo was lynched. Wondering why he didn't participate in the vote and hasn't posted since well before it?

Originally Posted by starseed

Mega noise to sift through. I think Timbo could actually now put me squarely in the list of people who support the GA2 reveal.

We could use an extra known townie to help us narrow our lists, and cut away a couple of connections that are not there. If we have 5 scum to 7 passengers, then the game could be over before the next day starts... and I think it is reasonable to assume it is 5 scum.

Should we lynch another passenger, then have GA2 successfully kill a turned, then get another bad roll with the spore, it would be 5-5 and would still be game over.

S.O.S.

Originally Posted by starseed

Unvote

Pending review. Squiggs, thanks for that response, but I meant to ask what your succinct responses were to the main clues against you.

Originally Posted by starseed

Peanut, any quick thoughts after skimming the last 100+ posts?

Originally Posted by starseed

Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Is there a consensus on the probability of 2 turned? ...and therefore we are facing our potential last day upon a passenger lynch?

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by GGG

If we are at 5 it's lunch or lose

Question for Mazrim:
If at the end of the day we are at 5 scum 5 unturned does the game end with scum victory or are night actions allowed to happen and then the 50% win condition is evaluated.

When the win condition is met, that faction wins. If that condition is met at the end of the day, the game is over.

[Hockeyguy15]

Weekend is over so we should all be back now. Time to do some reading.

[Hockeyguy15]

Vote 1 without known town
activeStick (8): squiggs96, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, Oling_Roachinen, GGG, GirlySports (5): Lego Man, Party Elephant, mrkajz44
East Coast Flame (1): Peanut
Hockeyguy15 (1): dissentowner

Vote 2 without known town
GirlySports (9): dissentowner, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, Lego Man, squiggs96, Peanut
Timbo (3): GGG, mrkajz44, Oling_Roachinen
Hockeyguy15 (2): Party Elephant

Vote 3 without known town
East Coast Flame (7): GGG, Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86, Party Elephant, Peanut
mrkajz44 (5): Hockeyguy15, squiggs96, Lego Man,
Hockeyguy15 (3): mrkajz44, dissentowner,

Vote 4 without known town
Hasn't Voted (1): Oling_Roachinen
Starseed (6): Peanut, mrkajz44, Party Elephant, squiggs96, dissentowner
mrkajz44 (7): Hockeyguy15, Starseed, GGG, bizaro86

Vote 5 without known town
devo22 (6): Oling_Roachinen, starseed, GGG, Party Elephant, mrkajz44
mrkajz44 (3): Hockeyguy15, dissentowner,
Party Elephant (2): squiggs96, bizaro86
Oling_Roachinen (1): Peanut

Vote 6 without town
Hasn't Voted (1): starseed
Timbo (7): Oling_Roachinen, dissentowner, Party Elephant, bizaro86, mrkajz44, Peanut,
Peanut (3): GGG, Hockeyguy15, squiggs96

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Vote 4 without known town
Hasn't Voted (1): Oling_Roachinen
Starseed (6): Peanut, mrkajz44, Party Elephant, squiggs96, dissentowner
mrkajz44 (7): Hockeyguy15, Starseed, GGG, bizaro86

Is it a coincidence that the last 3 people killed voted for mrkajz?

Timbo and devo were suspicious of him, but not super aggressive in trying to get him lynched and they are both dead. Seb voted for him, and ends up being turned.

[starseed]

I'm here! Sorry for the absence. This weekend was very busy for me. I'll catch up during and after work!

Dougie Freaking Hamilton!!!

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I'm not sure how me not voting for the recent townies that were lynched is a bad thing. I've been quite vocal on who I think is a host. Your post feels very much like it was written by a host.

I never said that not voting for recent townies was a good or bad thing. I was simply noting that both Squiggs and GGG had lots of votes during the day, 16 and 20 respectively. However, even with the high vote totals compared to others, there have been very few votes for known town, 2 and 4 respectively. I am speculating that the votes during the day for the "unknowns" are just there to confuse and prove certain ties are not there, but then when the final vote comes, a lot more careful consideration is made.

[starseed]

Very quickly, the timbo abstention was due to a crazy Thursday. I had to pick up a friend from the airport after work (just dropped her off this morning). When I got to the computer, it was an hour before deadline (I actually thought it was Friday), but timbo had already hammered himself. I probably would have voted timbo anyway, but peanut was higher on my list at the time, so could have helped create momentum away from voting out timbo.

My hail Mary is going to be to go back to the basics, and vote mrkaj today. I am now going to operate under the assumption that the other two scum were voting for me on day 4 to protect mrkaj, then being silent so they didn't appear to defensive. The breakthrough starts with lynching mrkaj today.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I've given enough reasons this game why he should be lynched. He has led us into the position we are currently in. Frustrating style or not, I've stated why I think we should lynch him.

If you don't think he's a host, who do you think they are?

My top three right now are party elephant, starseed, and squiggs.

Party elephant is as discussed endlessly. I'd be willing to bet the game on him being host/turned, but I realize I'm getting no support on that. Honestly, if I suddenly started getting a huge rush of party elephant support that would make me question the people who changed their minds, as that might indicate that he was town and they were going for the last kill.

For starseed, I've had suspicions of him since he was Lego. We ran him up the flagpole once, but it got lost in the day with the tie. He's kind of always been my second choice for scum, (which is ironically where he ended up on this list). That by itself makes me extra suspicious, they have played scummy enough to be on the radar, but not enough to ever attract much voting momentum.

As for you squiggs, this whole oling crusade with a bunch of evidence from last game seems really suspicious to me. Sure, it makes sense to see who's playing style compares to last game in day 1/2 when there isn't much to go on. In day 7, when the actions from this game can be evaluated, I feel like you're either letting your emotions get the better of you if you're town, or playing that card to try and make your oling case more convincing if you're host/turned. I'm 50/50 on you, so if I see momentum for squiggs votes from people I think are more likely than not to be townies I'd consider a vote.

[starseed]

The would be willing to switch to PE if necessary, but I am more confident in:

Vote: Mrkajz44

[starseed]

I would be*

[Hockeyguy15]

So are we expecting the agent to reveal now? If we are then I will hold off voting until then.

[GGG]

So given there has been no spore report we have at least 4 turned maybe 5.

I am the agent.

Night 1 I scanned party elephant as I figured scum would not go obvious and go with a strong player instead going with a newbie who likely won't get checked

Night 2 Oling - only other choice - didn't matter

Night 3 - didn't matter scanned Seb here as his style was so odd and wanted to make sure there wasn't some oling host Seb turned plot going

Night 4 - the debate here was between Seb, Oling, or other. I figured that Seb would eventually get the spore either from scum to get rid of known town or by town to get rid of a non contributing player. I advocated passing to Seb for this purpose. So since I figured I would scan Seb around night 6 I would leave him. I also didn't scan oling here as again I thought it was a too obvious place to send the spore. So I looked elsewhere. I checked Bizaro night 4. He was a stronger player (scum had shown they were sending to strong players) but not the obvious choice of HG or Oling. Bizaro was not turned.

Night 5 still wasn't going to check Seb. Night 6 was the plan for him. Chose to check Diss. Day 4 he posted about why he thought Hockeyguy was town which was a reversal.

Night 6 checked HG based on my lists of scum and town and people who weren't attractive for the spore because they were lynch targets

The key piece of evidence is that Seb was killed by the Captain which I attempted to communicate yesterday.

[GGG]

One thing that jumped out at me yesterday after finding out that Seb was killed by the captain was that Squiggs very quickly brought up the fact it was possible for scum to have killed Seb and not the agent. Yes it was in the rules but most people assumed that it was just the agent. The people predisposed to bringing up the captain killed Seb were the people that new. The agent and the host.

I also have oling as town as it's highly likely that night 4 Seb was infected. It makes no sense for scum oling to campaign for the killing of one of his turned when it was the first one they got. No someone might argue thats what oling would want you to believe but that would mean he is double gambiting with the first play on Girlysports and then the second play on Seb. How much town cred do you really need.

How do you explain this Squiggs?

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

As for you squiggs, this whole oling crusade with a bunch of evidence from last game seems really suspicious to me. Sure, it makes sense to see who's playing style compares to last game in day 1/2 when there isn't much to go on. In day 7, when the actions from this game can be evaluated, I feel like you're either letting your emotions get the better of you if you're town, or playing that card to try and make your oling case more convincing if you're host/turned. I'm 50/50 on you, so if I see momentum for squiggs votes from people I think are more likely than not to be townies I'd consider a vote.

I've given pages of reasons against Oling for this game. I've given pages just on how Days 5-6 went. With the GGG Agent reveal, I'm even stronger in my conviction that I'm right.