CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[GGG]

Party and Squiggs were the two front runners with Squiggs a vote a way from lynch. I'm not doing Timbo today so I'm going back to Squiggs
unvote
vote Squiggs

[GirlySports]

Vote Count

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 4 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn't Voted (2): Hockeyguy15, starseed

Party Elephant (3): Puxlut, bizaro86, Peanut
Timbo (3): Oling_Roachinen, dissentowner, Party Elephant
mrkajz44 (2): Timbo, squiggs96
squiggs96 (2): mrkajz44, GGG



The deadline is Thursday, June 25th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

[Timbo]

Timbo goes off the Deep End part 2 an Examination


Pardon the spelling corrections as I am now on my desktop. And I corrected a few errors. Still there may me more grammatical errors.

Underlined are my responses to my original post calling out Oling and his play to this point.

Let us look at the post that started this all.

Originally Posted by Timbo

Olings Schtick is getting old.
Yes my opinion

If Oling is town this is how I would categorize his play... (Highly Opinionated, Often wrong, Never in doubt). Honestly it's like having Don Cherry on CP Mafia
Again my opinion

Disagree with him and he votes for you conveniently removing himself from the voting equation.
This is fact

Let us look at his pattern.

Night 1 he voted in the activestick lynch Did he do this yes or no?
So did I, but my point is did he do this? Yes he did… fact!

Night 2 After giving Girly the spore voting and campaigning against her, he un-voted and voted on me removing himself from the lynch but was IMO the root cause of Girlies Lynch Did Oling do this yes or no? Answer Yes therefore fact

Night 3 He voted on the East Coast Flame lynch
Okay did he do this? Yes he did again a documented fact.

Night 4 he was not around to break up the mrkajz, starseed lynch. Typical greasy scum move. Yes my opinion which comes from last games experience Check late last CP mafia game and you will see the same pattern of convenient disappearance.
If you don’t believe me go and look .
What is so strange is Dissentowner was there and does not acknowledge this. But that is beside the point. Oling did disappear that night and that is documented fact.
Night 5 He begins the Devo lynch. Seb is turned and killed
Oling initiated this lynch.
Fact

Day 6 Attacks Squiggs (possibly rightly so too.) Squiggs posts his death post leaving no doubt as to who might be the cause of his demise.
After all of the above shenanigans, I say if Squiggs flips town Oling is my #1. Oling has a convenient town aligned epiphany and unvotes Squiggs, then votes for Squiggs?
Anyone care to dispute this? It is on record

In the mean time he completely steers conversation from hunting scum to a Government Agent reveal conversation. He finds someone who openly disagrees with him and unvotes Squiggs then votes Timbo to again distance himself from what might be a townie lynch.
This might be open to interpretation but it did happen

HG15 makes points about how the same scum would not vote in sequential town lynches.
and here Oling goes On Townie lynch , Off, On Townie Lynch, Off, On Townie Lynch
Olings voting pattern is “on record and fact”
Maybe HG is wrong and Scum have been voting in unison.

Everthing Oling has done has not come out in towns favour.
Okay who wishes to dispute this?

If he is town he is scums best unwitting helper.
Now I turn my sarcasm up way high here. Unwitting helper hmmm yup that sounds like Oling. He would be my first vote for unwitting helper. How about you?

Frankly looking at his performance in this CP Mafia game I believe Town would be better off without him.

Yes again my opinion

So Oling was the player who initiated the pass the spore and lynch the recipient idea. Agree or disagree?
Again this is fact.
Post #8 which really is post 5 not counting mazrims posts.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

So, correct me if I'm wrong about any of this, but someone already received the spore and passed it on?

If that's the case, and assuming (50/50 here) that the passenger wasn't turned, I feel that they should reveal who they passed the spore onto and we vote out that person ridding ourselves of the spore for a day.

The captain wont have a turned person to kill, so we wont have to worry about the 50/50 spore for the night.

Is it possible Oling gave us look what I got in my right hand and passed on what he had in his left?

Okay how many yes boxes have you ticked in the facts i posted, you have no choice but to check yes if you are true.

mrkajz44 what is your response to this?
Dissentowner what do you say to this?
Party Elephant please I would like to see your response.

Everyone else please look at facts not semantics.

Now if you notice I have not taken an ungodly amount of quotes and given them conformation bias.

Dissentowner you can look in the mirror here.

My posts are not going off the deep end but rather a shaking up of the Status Quo, which has gotten us nowhere.


GGG asks why now and not yesterday?
Fair enough,
I wanted one more vote/ or day to show my thoughts and facts

As for SebC his death and Olings disassociation from him are not proof positive . I did something similar.
Now notice how my post against Oling is factual except for what I posted as opinion or speculation. Which is fair and very little speculation.

His attack on me is based on what? Not facts but just his speculation and working very hard to twist the simplest of statements.

What I find interesting is the reaction he gave once confronted.
Full out attack.
-A rally cry
-Making up false claims as to me saying that dissentowner is
Town.
The only time I said that was after Oling himself pointed out Dissentowners mistake on the game rules.
I’m guilty, I fell for it maybe Oling did too. But look closer and I gave a disclaimer and I said I would be looking for Diss to fall back into his scummy ways.

-Trying to manipulate and twist a simple comment. I said if he was successful in my lynch he would have a 100 percent failure rate.
He then says that’s a slip and states don’t you mean a 100 percent success rate? Twisting posts ...and he has the gall to stuff in it right in our townie faces.


I’m shaking the scum tree and the maggots are falling off.
mrkajz44 comes in and defers to vote on me. WTF?
Party Elephant , I list on my scum list and he suddenly finds suspicion on me? Baited hook and scummy fish caught.
Dissentowner Who goes and accuses HG15 then through deep reading exonerates him suddenly comes to the convenient conclusion that he was first right then wrong but now he is right again
I’m not sure if diss is scum but everything he posted in his posts about me are wrong. Majorly wrong.

Oling states I am gloating about a scum win. Nope not at all I’m pushing the envelope defying the misguided convention that Oling seems to have on us townies.

Why would I call Oling out if I was turned or host? Why make so many waves to defy convention, rebel against the man, premature celebration?
I also called HG15 out with him saying he did not remember what quick topic was.
Thats what townies do or are supposed to do. It seems to me to many townies are playing the stay the long run game for themselves. Afraid to speak up.
If you want to speak up and feel I am your target well so be it. But I at least go out hunting like the wolf rather than slaughtered like the sheep.

Also why has the Government Agent not revealed them selves?
Oling says its okay, he has given you the green light. Why are you hesitating?
TLR
The time came to nut up or shut up. I’m not shutting up.

[Timbo]

Opps my To long did not read did not work as I intended.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Timbo

The time came to nut up or shut up. I’m not shutting up.

I'm still waiting for that vote Timbo.

[Oling_Roachinen]

I think at this point it's obvious that the Government Agent made a conscious decision not to reveal because they know that we are not in a lynch or lose scenario. I really hope that's the case because I'm basing some of my logic on that. That means that SebC was killed by Host, that means that Devo22 might have had spore. That may explain why I think the final vote for him was still heavily town.

But that means they killed SebC to get the spore to send it to someone, I think that means they got to send it last night? Killing SebC makes Squiggs96 look bad, and should have made me look half decent. They aren't sending the spore to mrkajz44, they may have sent me the spore because I was right about SebC and were hoping to turn me to use my town cred that they would be anticipating I got for being right about SebC. This holds true for other people as well who may have also been sent the spore. There is just a far far greater chance that I have the spore than mrkajz44 does.

Send that vote my way. If you're going to kill town, at least give us a chance of taking out the spore.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I'm still waiting for that vote Timbo.

Im coming after you through your cronies such as mrkajz44 what did you call him again.. the all Canadian Kid? Another of your quasi-townie confirmations.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Im coming after you through your cronies such as mrkajz44 what did you call him again.. the all Canadian Kid? Another of your quasi-townie confirmations.

It was my Don Cherry impersonation. It was spot on.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I think at this point it's obvious that the Government Agent made a conscious decision not to reveal because they know that we are not in a lynch or lose scenario. I really hope that's the case because I'm basing some of my logic on that. That means that SebC was killed by Host, that means that Devo22 might have had spore. That may explain why I think the final vote for him was still heavily town.

But that means they killed SebC to get the spore to send it to someone, I think that means they got to send it last night? Killing SebC makes Squiggs96 look bad, and should have made me look half decent. They aren't sending the spore to mrkajz44, they may have sent me the spore because I was right about SebC and were hoping to turn me to use my town cred that they would be anticipating I got for being right about SebC. This holds true for other people as well who may have also been sent the spore. There is just a far far greater chance that I have the spore than mrkajz44 does.

Send that vote my way. If you're going to kill town, at least give us a chance of taking out the spore.

Nice back track. Oling I thought you thought I was turned? You keep wanting the GA to investigate you?
If you are a host they are not going to get a positive and you know that so is that why you again want to be investigated? More stink coming from your end.

The government agent hopefully will investigate someone to whom they feel has the best chance of being turned.
I feel that the lack of reveal is because the GA did not wish to suffer through your insufferable misguided influence.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Nice back track. Oling I thought you thought I was turned? .

Or host. I haven't decided.

It's weird you're thinking ahead to tonight and the mind games I'm playing with the Government Agent when you could just vote for me...

"The time came to nut up or shut up."
You did neither.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Oh, I get what you're saying Timbo. You are absolutely one of the "other people" I mean when I said "This holds true for other people as well who may have also been sent the spore."I do not know where the spore went. It could be me. It could be you and you turned. You could just be host all along. I don't believe there's a chance that mrkajz44 was sent the spore.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Or host. I haven't decided.

It's weird you're thinking ahead to tonight and the mind games I'm playing with the Government Agent when you could just vote for me...

"The time came to nut up or shut up."
You did neither.

The day aint over yet is it.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Timbo

The day aint over yet is it.

No, but if you planning on changing your vote you might want to do it before the deadline so people know your intention.

Oh wait, that only matters if you don't have a separate thread to discuss your last minute plans. Nevermind then.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Timbo goes off the Deep End part 2 an Examination


Pardon the spelling corrections as I am now on my desktop. And I corrected a few errors. Still there may me more grammatical errors.

Underlined are my responses to my original post calling out Oling and his play to this point.

Let us look at the post that started this all.


Yes again my opinion

So Oling was the player who initiated the pass the spore and lynch the recipient idea. Agree or disagree?
Again this is fact.
Post #8 which really is post 5 not counting mazrims posts.



Is it possible Oling gave us look what I got in my right hand and passed on what he had in his left?

Okay how many yes boxes have you ticked in the facts i posted, you have no choice but to check yes if you are true.

mrkajz44 what is your response to this?
Dissentowner what do you say to this?
Party Elephant please I would like to see your response.

Everyone else please look at facts not semantics.

Alright one fact at a time.
On day 1 the two frontrunners, active and girly, were both town. In fact the only non confirmed town to receive votes were me, hg and lego man with one each. Hard to point fingers there especially with so little to go on day 1.

Day 2. The only hammer we've carried out. 9 players were sold on the idea that Oling passed the spore to girly and that we should stop it. As of this point in the game we have seen no evidence that this was untrue. I've come to accept it as what happened. The spore timelines that have been fleshed out since seb was killed all correlate to this. Yes of course oling passing the spore was the root cause of girly's lynch, but we've seen nothing to indicate it was anything but true. I was skeptical of trusting Oling at that point and didn't vote for Girly. You did. Fact.

Day 3. Oling voted for ECF, but so did two other confirmed town (at the time) in devo and seb, not to mention me, another townie . Documented fact.

The day 4 clusterfata is way more on bizarro than oling, never mind the large group of us who were around and had time to change votes but didn't. I personally wanted to put pressure on bizarro as him and I hadn't been seeing eye to eye that day and force him to cast the deciding vote - a mistake I did my best not to repeat on the devo lynch. Solely blaming oling for the no lynch ignores at least half a dozen of us who could have done something to stop it but didn't, particularly bizarro. It's a documented fact that oling didn't vote, but it's your opinion that it was for nefarious reasons and you're taking a pretty narrow minded view of the situation in my opinion.

I'm not going to pore through the oling/squiggs exchange because I have to sleep and work at some point in my life, but squiggs remains at or near the top of my scum list.

In case you haven't noticed, some of us are in favour of a government agent reveal. I personally feel that we need the extra info to make a more informed vote before it's too late. We are way too divided with less than 24 hours to the deadline. How is asking for a reveal "not hunting scum"? If anything, it is the most effective way to get the town reliable information to direct this possibly crucial vote, and the worst the scum can do in response is send them the spore with a 1/4 chance of turning. If they even have control of the spore right now.

This bit you have here:"HG15 makes points about how the same scum would not vote in sequential town lynches.
and here Oling goes On Townie lynch , Off, On Townie Lynch, Off, On Townie Lynch
Olings voting pattern is “on record and fact”
Maybe HG is wrong and Scum have been voting in unison. "
In my TVR analysis I've found that there are hardly any distinguishing characteristics in everyone's vote patterns. Scum have done a VERY good job blending in with the rest of us in terms of voting patterns so far. I'm not sure what conclusion you're trying to draw from oling's vote pattern because it isn't much different from the rest of us. He is one of SIX (aka half of remaining) players with a final TVR of 3/5. Again, these are all facts, other than my insinuation that scum have done a good job blending in, which I don't see how you can argue that.

So when you say everything oling has done has not been in the town's favour you're stretching a bit. There are too many of us with bad voting records for us all to be scum (yes, I am one of the six with a high TVR).

I don't know how many "boxes" I've ticked with this post but it's safe to say I don't agree with your analysis.

Originally Posted by Timbo

Now if you notice I have not taken an ungodly amount of quotes and given them conformation bias.

I would have preferred if you did. Quotes would help paint your narrative rather than expecting us to take your word for it. And you're welcome for the fun new term

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

This post reeks of confirmation bias.

Originally Posted by Timbo

I'm not ashamed to say I had to look up what confirmation bias is.

Originally Posted by Timbo

I’m shaking the scum tree and the maggots are falling off.

Party Elephant , I list on my scum list and he suddenly finds suspicion on me? Baited hook and scummy fish caught.

Good luck with that. You've been able to lay low with the safe vote of mrkajz for 3 and going on 4 deadlines - my definition of hiding in plain sight. I don't think you actually want him dead as a town flip would shoot your TVR up to a very scummy 100%!

[Hockeyguy15]

I'm only at post 2053 right now, so still at the whole hashing out the squiggs/Seb stuff, but for anyone that wants to weigh in...If squiggs is a host, why would he bring up sending the spore to a known town? Even if he did say "I think the spore was sent to Oling or Seb because they are known town" that's a 50/50 shot at the agent investigating someone they turned.

[Hockeyguy15]

Now I'm side tracked and back at the start of day 4.

Squiggs comes out and starts the spore talk. If he is a host I come back to why would he put the attention on the spore going to a confirmed town? I guess he could be trying to build some credibility with the town pending an agent investigation, but then why wouldn't he also include Seb?

What about if squiggs got the spore night 3 and was turned to start day 4? I guess he could be trying to get the agent to investigate one of the confirmed town rather than him? But then that would mean he had to have passed the spore to Seb on night 4 so that Seb was turned on day 5?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

SebC, I'm confident is town and I know I am town.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Seb hasn't made a post in 5 days. I'm not counting his post that says he hasn't been posting.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

At the time the vote happened Seb was pretty much confirmed town by Mazrim.

But yes now that is out the window with the spore in play.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

At the time of the lynching. All bets off until/if we find out where that spore is.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I find this extremely odd:

Oling makes a post about the ECF vote. I see Seb's name in it and remember that he is still playing this game. I look up when his last post was. I see that Seb posted 2 days ago to say he hadn't been posting and then his last post was 5 days ago. I was just pointing out that Seb has not posted in a really long time. At no point did I mention the spore.

Then these two posts come back to back, both quoting me:

Why would either of you have commented on the spore when I didn't say anything about it? Why did both of you? Your posts look eerily similar.

I don't know why but this exchange stands out to me a little more now, something seems off about it. Oling had posted about the ECF vote and where he thinks hosts voted(post 1455), and then squiggs points out Seb hasn't posted. Oling and I both say at the time of the vote Seb was town, but not now, and squiggs jumps on it.

[mrkajz44]

My thoughts on squiggs continuing to talk about the spore comes back to why I'm voting for him in the first place. If he knows everything about the spore, where it went, where it is, where it may go, it might be easy to let it slip out in one of his posts. Therefore, he posts about the spore somewhat often to avoid letting it leak into one of his other posts. A secondary objective would also be to gain town credibility, of course, but I think avoiding a slip up is likely the primary goal.

As for that exchange, I don't really see it as odd. Squiggs just mentioned that Seb wasn't very active recently. HG and Oling assumed Squiggs was talking about the vote and Seb's status (as that is what Oling just posted about), but Squiggs was just commenting on activity. So to both sides it looks weird because that was not where their head was at when making the post. Just a simple "two different trains of thought" thing, at least to me.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by starseed

Pending review. Squiggs, thanks for that response, but I meant to ask what your succinct responses were to the main clues against you.

I'm going to take mrk's clues against me from post #2108:

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I've gone back and re-read some of Squiggs "errors" in his posts that have been pointed out by a few people.

1) Leaving Seb of the "confirmed town" list when talking about who the GA should target - on its own, it could be read as Squiggs really thought Oling was the best person to target and maybe got lost in his own argument. It can been seen in a very different light though, when you read on the assumption Squiggs knows that Seb turned

2) Claiming that he was responsible for Starseed not getting lynched - personally, the unvote by Pux was what started it in my eyes. Given her status I think a lot of people probably took that vote with a little more weight than others. Also, why is taking credit for this a good thing? We ended up lynching a townie anyway, and no one knows Starseed's alignment...except hosts of course.

3) His list of possibilities - he did pick out a few "rare" scenarios and avoided more obvious ones. Again, taken on its own it could be seen as not being a huge deal as with each passing day the number of possibilities greatly increase. However, another reasonable explanation is he had more information than us to start with and some options were already "crossed off"

4) When ECF flipped town, he put my name in ECF's "place" in the post - as I recall, it was a pretty big post, and typos can happen for sure, but scum would know everyone who is town and who is not, so maybe it was more than just a typo

Each one of those events are not huge red flags, but when added together they take on a bit of a different meaning. In all four cases, it almost seems like Squiggs knows a bit more than we do. When that happens four times, I don't think they are just innocent mistakes anymore; he does actually have more knowledge than the rest of us.

1) I just didn't have Seb on my radar. I thought about him maybe being town, but I also had suspicions. I didn't think it was a huge deal. I didn't think it was a tiny deal. Everyone else has jumped on this. If that's what gets me lynched, that's on your thoughts, not mine. I've said it many times, but just because we don't think the same way, doesn't mean I'm wrong. I could be wrong, but not solely because I didn't go about it just like you (general you, not specific to one person). I've been very successful in my life, and a big part of it is because I look at things differently.

2) I have never claimed I saved starseed. Not once. I even pushed several times for his predecessor Lego to be voted out. I don't even know what this is referring to. Pux unvoted mrk to vote starseed. I did the same shortly after. I voted to lynch starseed. I have also said this is my biggest regret.

If it's in regards to Day 5 then I said I was responsible for the vote scattering. I tried to both scatter votes so the hosts couldn't hide, and I tried to get PE lynched. Pux's unvote was 21 hours before I did that, so it gets no weight. All of the action started that night when I was having some fun. And you are right that a townie was lynched. It's the town that Oling went after, and mrkajz put the final nail in the coffin. Thanks for reminding us that Oling started the lynch and mrkajz finished it.

3) This goes back to me thinking slightly differently. What is obvious to you is different than what's obvious to me. It's not my fault you can't see something complex or not obvious. If everything was obvious and straight forward, this game wouldn't have a challenge in it.

4) If you are going to rake me over the coals for a typo, you better be willing to point out everyone's typos. Oling's had a few in the last couple days. (HG connected to HG, calling me host instead of town, putting the wrong name). I absolutely have made typos. I'm guessing everyone here has. This is a non issue.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Now I'm side tracked and back at the start of day 4.

Squiggs comes out and starts the spore talk. If he is a host I come back to why would he put the attention on the spore going to a confirmed town? I guess he could be trying to build some credibility with the town pending an agent investigation, but then why wouldn't he also include Seb?

What about if squiggs got the spore night 3 and was turned to start day 4? I guess he could be trying to get the agent to investigate one of the confirmed town rather than him? But then that would mean he had to have passed the spore to Seb on night 4 so that Seb was turned on day 5?

If I had been given the spore on Night 3 and was turned, what benefit is there to me giving the spore to Seb on Night 4? There is a ton of heat on me, and many are advocating Seb be investigated. I think even I said it at one point that if Oling was already investigated to investigate Seb. That would be a terrible play on my part.

I think the spore is a huge part of this game. It dwindles our numbers and increases their numbers if the person is turned. Without the smuggler, it's even harder.

Of all of my scenarios I've put out there, or thought up and didn't put out there, I think this one might be the closest to what happened:

Assumption: Oling is a host, but not the Captain.

Night 0 - Passed to someone who gets turned. Hosts know all turned at all times.
Night 1 - Passed back to a host. Hosts now control the spore
Day 2 - Oling claims he was sent spore on Night 0 and passed it to Girly on Night 1. He claims he is not turned, but thinks Girly might be. We lynch Girly, so we can never find out if his claim is true or not. The only way we could have ever truly believed that Oling was telling the truth on this one, was if she lasted the day. If Oling was town, and did pass the spore to Girly there would be proof either way if Girly lived to Day 3. Oling was likely investigate by the Agent on Night 2. If he's a host or an unturned passenger nothing will show up. At first I thought the hosts might have passed the spore to themselves, but I think it's more likely they turned someone right off the bat, and Oling tried to get town credit for this. He did know that in order for his plan to work, Girly had to be lynched on Day 2. If she survived day two then she'd either be able to say on Day 3 who she passed the spore to on Night 2. She would then be investigate on Night 3 and if she was turned would be killed. If she was not turned, and alive on Day 4, this would be great news for the town.

I have no idea when Seb was turned. I feel him dying is trying to set me up. We know for sure that on Day 5 Seb was turned. We don't know how long he had been turned. He might even be the person turned on Night 0, but this is unlikely. Either way, on Day 5 he was turned. Seb's dying vote was on me. Why would a turned, who is now aligned with the scum, vote and put pressure on me? The only logical reason is I am not aligned with him at all. There are many people who think I'm a host. This is as far from the truth as you can get. I won't know until I am lynched, or the game is over, but I feel strongly that Seb was killed by the hosts to gain control of the spore. I also feel strongly that Oling is a host and is connected to mrkajz.