CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

unvote

This is preemptive incase the mafia does decide to go for the straight up win if Squiggs96 isn't host. I still think he's host, but when we are in a possible lynch or lose scenario and the hammer can be dropped in 2 hours, I don't want the possibility for some to just jump on and hammer him bringing us down to 5-6 and an unknown spore location.

This is not support for Squiggs96 in anyway, but I want to be sure.

Leave room for Squiggs96 to jump on that one as well

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

Fair enough, it's the combination of accusing/being fearful of me being turned yet our list is the same. If you believe I'm turned and trying to widen the net then your list outside of Party would be completely wrong.

My list didn't change though. Yes you could be turned, you may not be as well. My list is my list and has been the same for the last couple days except for mrkajz44. Should I change it because you are possibly turned?

[GGG]

The other cons are when the GA reveals he may or may not be converted so isn't neccessarily town.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Anyways... Why would a turned (Seb) vote for a scum (squiggs)?
People are making some good points, but I feel like I'm missing a pattern here.

The vote was 7 (Starseed) to one for Squiggs when SebC made his vote. And in his vote he even says it's so he isn't investigated, so that's a good enough reason. A town or host Squiggs, SebC might have voted for Squiggs96 so the Government Agent didn't check him, well that may have been his hope. Heck, he might have had no idea who host were at all given the restrictions.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

unvote

This is preemptive incase the mafia does decide to go for the straight up win if Squiggs96 isn't town. I still think he's host, but when we are in a possible lynch or lose scenario and the hammer can be dropped in 2 hours, I don't want the possibility for some to just jump on and hammer him bringing us down to 5-6 and an unknown spore location.

This is not support for Squiggs96 in anyway, but I want to be sure.

Hammer was available as of yesterday at 10, so either squiggs is host, we aren't at lynch or lose, or all the scum had already voted squiggs.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

The other cons are when the GA reveals he may or may not be converted so isn't neccessarily town.

That's a possibility. But then I think we're screwed anyways as there's probably 5 scum, 50/50 chance of 6 tonight and no way of getting rid of them but lynch and all townies would have to vote together.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Hammer was available as of yesterday at 10, so either squiggs is host, we aren't at lynch or lose, or all the scum had already voted squiggs.

Oh thought it was 10 tonight.

Vote: Squiggs96

The lynch or lose IF the spore turns the passenger (50/50) so they might not be gamblers.

[dissentowner]

Unvote
Vote:Party Elephant

I think this might be our best shot at a suspected scum.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Squiggs96, thoughts on Government Agent revealing? Specific cons?

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by GGG

The big con is that the agent is known. It allows the host to choose a strategy of avoiding the 1/4 chance or targeting him. Right now they would avoid them but we hit one host and they need to get more defensive and build their turned army. As we close in on end game being able to nightkill turned becomes more probable. And as I posted above the biggest thing we could learn is that the Hosts killed Seb.

So if you look at my earlier post it's the best case of what we could find out so if that's the info we'd get are you still in favour of a reveal.

I agree a reveal by the GA gives the hosts an advantage in strategy. The source of the SebC kill is the only advantage we gain.
And if the GA is constantly given the spore and avoids being turned to whom should He/she pass it on to? Pux well that only works once.

As far as I see it it only benifts scum giving them all the information while we only get a smidgen of information.

[GGG]

Let's walk through the oling is Host strategy

- night 0 spore is passed to town and turns xxx
- night 1 spore is passed to girly and oling claims he sent it
- night 2 spore sits and was lynched with girly
- night 3 spore is passed Seb / other converted
- night 4 spore is passed other / Seb converted or devo recall
- night 5 spore is passed ???

So if Oling is scum worst case is game over 3 scum and 3 turned. Best case is 3 scum 1 turned with a 50/50 win prob tonight by securing a mislynch. I don't think Oling mixes it up today going full boar after Squiggs given they just need one mislynch. This only makes sense if Starseed, Mrkajz and Oling are the scum team.

So I'd accept a turned oling but with his list matching mine that doesn't really work unless I'm way off on my list.

Oling is town. The more I go through the game the more I see him being town. This is unlike Smash where upon reread and analysis I kept coming to scum oling but didn't act strongly enough.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

My list didn't change though. Yes you could be turned, you may not be as well. My list is my list and has been the same for the last couple days except for mrkajz44. Should I change it because you are possibly turned?

No my point is that me being turned and your list is incompatible. Only one or the other is true.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Hockeyguy15 and Starseed, thoughts?

There's a very real possibility there's 5 people working against the town and just hoping that a townie dies tonight and everything stays status quo.

Would be a gigantic blunder if the Government Agent doesn't reveal and we lose tonight before he even gets a chance, right?

Have the late voters been consistent with voting late? Like Scum waiting to see who to vote for?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

No my point is that me being turned and your list is incompatible. Only one or the other is true.

Uhhhh....

My list was posted yesterday though. You think I'm turned too. Only one is compatible?

Maybe we are both town and both right (or close), but you posting practically my list yesterday and then accusing me of mirroring your list? Brilliant strategy if you are scum. If I change my list, you would also probably quote my post saying I changed my list and say that is a reason for saying I am turned.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Read post before that. Alright I think we are on the same page GGG.

Maybe a Party Elephant is the best move?

[GGG]

I think the GA is also watching who we are lynching and would speak up if they felt the information would be relevant. I don't you answered this but what piece of info would change your stance on Squiggs today?

[Oling_Roachinen]

If the Government Agent didn't want me to vote Squiggs96, I wouldn't. I'd put my faith in a confirmed townie.

[Hockeyguy15]

I think my biggest fear is if whoever got the spore last night hasn't turned and it isn't 5 people working against us. If we panic and there is an early reveal we put the agent at risk to be turned. The agent isn't like Puxlut where we can assume they are still unturned after a day.

[Oling_Roachinen]

If we could confirm him (no one else reveals after).

But even then, I think if someone else revealed after that would give us good information as well.