CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by starseed

Lol. I'm not going to update those stats. It was a snapshot of an early mid point of the game.

Update it or I'll vote again!

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Why bother putting her on the list, she is as town as it gets.

All the more reason to include her on the list. If Pux has a good reason for moving off, then I'd take that into consideration considering her status.

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I for sure was trying to see where the spore had gone. Just because you have a different theory on where the hosts would send it, doesn't make your theory automatically right and mine automatically wrong. I wanted to have the discussion on who the GA should investigate. I still do. If you wait until Day 5 for this then you've missed your opportunity to get out a turned player (if one exists) right after they've turned.

Another easy one. I'm town. I think it's a possibility if you are town that you have the spore. I'm not obsessed with Seb. You keep bringing that up, but I don't need to include him. And this is also what I'm getting at.Most people are placing Seb as confirmed town. I don't. I know what happened, but that doesn't mean I'm interpreting it the same way. ECF died warning of this. I had many concerns that were the same as his. This is one of them.

You keep stating you aren't turned. You might not be. Last game you kept mentioning you were town. You weren't. Forgive me if I don't take your word as gospel. Seb might be turned. That might be why he's silent. It's very possible. I haven't written it off. I don't mind exploring it later.
.

This is not my battle to fight but I'm wading in because HORMONES.

Imo, the Seb thing was explained by Squiggs here. It's a bit crazy that you're still on about it, Oling. Noise noise noise, I must say.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Peanut

This is not my battle to fight but I'm wading in because HORMONES.

Imo, the Seb thing was explained by Squiggs here. It's a bit crazy that you're still on about it, Oling. Noise noise noise, I must say.

But he also didn't believe I was town.

Squiggs96, perhaps being cautious, had made more than one scenario long before today that had me as either Host or Turned. And that makes sense if he was Host (trying to get rid of any positive claim I might have) or Passenger(trying not to get us in a "hockeyguy15" situation with a confirmed townie that wasn't.)

However, his argument, as he has explained many times, was that the rest of the town thought I was confirmed town. Squiggs96 himself didn't consider me confirmed town, he had made that perfectly clear.

As you've pointed out (as did many others) SebC had the most confirmed town status out of anyone not named Puxlut. Yet SebC was not an "option" for spore.

I mean, as far as I was concerned, there were 2 confirmed townies* (SebC and Puxlut) and Squiggs96 somehow missed one and that wasn't a small mistake.

Of course I know I'm town as I'm sure everyone else would state, but I didn't see a reason for the rest of the town to consider me confirmed

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

But he also didn't believe I was town.

?????

I pulled my vote off becausee I wanted to make sure there was some discussion after starseed's theory post. I didn't want someone to hammer before we talked about it. And it turns out we did have some good discussion...

Not quite sure who I want to vote for now...I voted devo once, and I'm ok with doing it again. But at least until tomorrow...I'll sleep on my choice:

Vote:squiggs96

I don't think a townie would vote for a known townie. Even if it's to force another players hand.

[SebC]

ECF also warned us that Puxlut may not be town.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I think a shift to Devo22 could make for an interesting day.

not really. Nobody is coming to save me and the hosts can have a quiet and peaceful day yet again while a townie is lynched. But maybe you already know that.

The school year is slowly coming to an end over here and I have been pretty busy lately preparing and grading tests, papers etc. As always, Friday is particularly busy for me. I'll have a longer post with me thoughts up when I get home in the evening (your noon).

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

All the more reason to include her on the list. If Pux has a good reason for moving off, then I'd take that into consideration considering her status.

Maybe I am brushing her off because on day 2 and 3 she was voting for me, so it doesn't give me the greatest confidence on her judgement. The only possible reason I could see her voting record matter is if a host was trying to mirror what she was doing.

There are a couple that seem to do that...

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

There are a couple that seem to do that...

Who are you thinking?

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

?????

I don't think a townie would vote for a known townie. Even if it's to force another players hand.

You must not have followed that discussion at all. Do you know where my vote is right now? I do find it interesting this is the first time you've referred to yourself as a known townie. You seem very sensitive about getting a vote.

Originally Posted by SebC

ECF also warned us that Puxlut may not be town.

Maybe Pux was the Anomaly. Maybe she's gotten the spore twice already, and the town got unlucky. We've already gotten unlucky when we lynched our Smuggler in activeStick.

I still think I was onto something with my crazy theory on post #925 http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=925

[squiggs96]

It takes 8 votes to hammer, 5 to deadline lynch

Hasn't Voted (2): devo22, Timbo

Party Elephant (3): bizaro86, GGG, squiggs96
starseed (2): mrkajz44, dissentowner
mrkajz44 (2): Hockeyguy15, Party Elephant
devo22 (2): Oling_Roachinen, starseed
squiggs96 (2): SebC, Puxlut
Oling_Roachinen (1): Peanut

I think that's correct. Are Timbo and devo going to vote?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Maybe Pux was the Anomaly. Maybe she's gotten the spore twice already, and the town got unlucky. We've already gotten unlucky when we lynched our Smuggler in activeStick.

I still think I was onto something with my crazy theory on post #925 http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=925

Your tinfoil hat is way too tight. The likelihood that Puxlut is not the anomaly is slim to none. There has not been a counter claim for days now, and there was no reason for the anomaly to not speak up when Puxlut's claim happened.


For your other argument that Puxlut WAS the anomaly but is now turned is also slim to none. For that to happen she was given the spore and it failed - she then passed it to someone else without saying anything about it, then someone passed it back to her without saying anything and she turned?

You realize there haven't been enough spore passes for that to happen, right?

Night 0-Day 1 - Oling has the spore
Night 1-Day 2 - Girly has the spore
Night 2-Day 3 - Spore not in play - back with captain
Night 3-Day 4 - Puxlut given spore, not turned
Night 4-Day 5 - Puxlut gives spore to someone and doesn't say a word

If you assume Oling is lying then it has to go something like this.

Night 0-Day 1 - Someone got the spore and is turned
Night 1-Day 2 - Oling makes fake claim about Girly, but he/someone actually passed it to Puxlut. Spore auto fails on Puxlut
Night 2-Day 3 - Puxlut passes the spore to someone and never says she got it. If she was given the spore she knows Oling was lying about giving it to Girly and knows he is a host/infected
Night 3-Day 4 - Whoever Puxlut passed the spore has it
Night 4-Day 5 - Someone passes it back to Puxlut and she turns

How likely is that?

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

If you assume Oling is lying then it has to go something like this.

Night 0-Day 1 - Someone got the spore and is turned
Night 1-Day 2 - Oling makes fake claim about Girly, but he/someone actually passed it to Puxlut. Spore auto fails on Puxlut
Night 2-Day 3 - Puxlut passes the spore to someone and never says she got it. If she was given the spore she knows Oling was lying about giving it to Girly and knows he is a host/infected
Night 3-Day 4 - Whoever Puxlut passed the spore has it
Night 4-Day 5 - Someone passes it back to Puxlut and she turns

How likely is that?

I think you're right. That's the only way it happens. I guess it breaks down when Pux doesn't say anything. The lack of counter claim on her being Anomaly ruins a lot of 'eureka' scenarios I've been trying to come up with.

[Mazrim]

The deadline has been extended to Saturday, June 20th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

I won't be around tonight to be able to do the end of day stuff, so I needed to move the deadline.

[mrkajz44]

So based on the responses to my Starseed question on why they moved off:

-Party said he liked the theory that Oling suggested, that scum would be squirming with him in the lead coming up so the deadline - that has good merit to it

-Pux said she didn't want hammer to come down to promote discussion - okay, fair enough, but now Pux moved over to Devo. I'm still not sure what changed her mind on Starseed

-Timbo - yet to check in, but did indicate that he would be gone until 4pm today

Since I asked, Peanut also came off Starseed. It looks like the reason was revolving around Oling moving up the list, rather than Starseed doing anything in particular though.

I guess I still don't see any great reasons for the moves off Starseed. Oling's theory about squirming scum is not bad I suppose, but it depends on two things (this is based on the fact that I think Starseed is scum):

1) Where were the scum votes to start with before the unvotes started?
2) Did the scum resign themselves to Starseed getting lynched and didn't want to make waves, especially after the close vote yesterday?

I'm sticking with Starseed for now, and it looks like we have a bit more time to discuss this fully.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Night 0-Day 1 - Someone got the spore and is turned
Night 1-Day 2 - Oling makes fake claim about Girly, but he/someone actually passed it to Puxlut. Spore auto fails on Puxlut
Night 2-Day 3 - Puxlut passes the spore to someone and never says she got it. If she was given the spore she knows Oling was lying about giving it to Girly and knows he is a host/infected

But even in that scenario Puxlut would still be Passenger with a goal of killing Host. In that scenario she would have said she received the spore and I would have been lynched.

Squiggs96, the goal for Passengers is to kill the Host, not survive. If or when Puxlut receives the spore for the first time she will let the town know to give us the best chance with the most information. There was no counterclaim to Puxlut when she revealed being the Genetic Anomaly and she hasn't revealed receiving the spore yet. We need to take her word for it.

I was "happy" to lynch East Coast Flame because he was casting doubt on Puxlut because there's no scenario, barring an absolute catastrophic miscue by the real Genetic Anomaly, where she isn't telling the truth. And if we assume she is the Genetic Anomaly, we have to assume everything she does she believes is good for the town. Not revealing she received the spore is bad for the town, therefore she hasn't received the spore (unless she has it right now and she doesn't realize).

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

It takes 8 votes to hammer, 5 to deadline lynch

Hasn't Voted (2): devo22, Timbo

Party Elephant (3): bizaro86, GGG, squiggs96
starseed (2): mrkajz44, dissentowner
mrkajz44 (2): Hockeyguy15, Party Elephant
devo22 (2): Oling_Roachinen, starseed
squiggs96 (2): SebC, Puxlut
Oling_Roachinen (1): Peanut

I think that's correct. Are Timbo and devo going to vote?

If this is correct then we better figure out who the hell we are lynching soon. I know we now have an extra day but if we don't get a lynch again we are truly screwed, that can't happen.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Are Timbo and devo going to vote?

Of course. For now, my vote will go to

vote mrkajz44

once again. Might change to someone else later today once I'm finally able to fully catch up. Still suspicious of starseed too, for example ... him quickly adding to Olings vote for me doesn't sit well with me.

[Oling_Roachinen]

mrkajz44, what you're saying makes sense if you know you are town. But from "our" perspective the same argument exists for you.

Yesterday there were 6 people to vote for Starseed, ultimately saving you in a tie. Nothing Earth-shattering really happened since the lynch and all 6 people* voted for Starseed again, as could have been predicted. Timbo changed his vote from you to Starseed for 7, while Devo22 and myself both said we would be willing to lynch Starseed. So on the surface it looked like he gained more support for a lynch. It was Puxlut, our known townie, who removed her vote that opened up the door for Starseed to be saved. Now, the scum may have used that as an opportunity but the exact same argument could be made for you yesterday. You were also dead in the water until Puxlut swapped her vote away from you to Starseed.

On the other hand, 7 people voted for you yesterday. Currently only Hockeyguy15 remains of those 7. Devo22 went for Bizaro86 before agreeing to lynch Starseed, Bizaro86 went for Party Elephant, SebC went for Squiggs96. The others, Timbo, GGG, and Starseed, shifted off you throughout the day.

*Dissentowner originally voted for Bizaro86 before switching back to his yesterday vote for Starseed.