CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[dissentowner]

What does everybody think on voting for mrkajz44? My theory is that many think he is a host or are suspicious of him and if he flips town then we can take a harder look at HG who has been lobbying hard against him. After my research I am leaning toward HG being town but I have been wrong about these things before. We have to try and get on track somehow before too many passengers get turned and we seem to be getting no where.

[mrkajz44]

HG - as I said in my post near the end, I didn't think your involvement in the Active lynching was particularly scummy in itself. When you look at what happened in Day 2 and 3 though, I see it in a slightly different light (read: more scummy than at first glace). Everything in your rebuttal is reasonable, but when considering my suspicions of you based on Day 2 and 3, I see the motives as different. Other people have done the same thing where they go back and re-read earlier posts with a different perception based on future events, and this is really no different.

In the end, all you wanted to know why I thought you were central to the lynching and I think my post speaks for itself for how I see it from my point of view.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

What does everybody think on voting for mrkajz44? My theory is that many think he is a host or are suspicious of him and if he flips town then we can take a harder look at HG who has been lobbying hard against him. After my research I am leaning toward HG being town but I have been wrong about these things before. We have to try and get on track somehow before too many passengers get turned and we seem to be getting no where.

I'm quite happy to continue the pursuit of mrk, which is why my vote is staying there. I think it's the right lynch at this point. If someone makes a good case for someone else I'll listen, but at this point there isn't one.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

If mrkajz turns out to be town, I'll lead the charge to lynch HG. As for now I'm pretty convinced mrk is a host.

I thought about this post for a while and if I should comment on it or not. Squiggs this is just about as helpful to the town as doing a death pact, except you are putting me on the line instead of yourself. It looks like you are trying to plan an escape route in the event that Mrkajz is lynched and flips town. You're trying to pass the blame to me for a lynch that hasn't even happened yet.

What if on the off chance Mrkajz flips town, you then lead the charge and get me lynched and I flip town? Then someone leads the charge on you and you flip town? Where does it end?

Also if I was less experienced and you said this you could drive me away from voting for Mrkajz because you already put a target on my back. You're lucky that I'm not too worried about that and will ignore your comment when placing my vote today.

[starseed]

I was just about to mention that the "if player x is town we target y" is not going to work. People going hard after another individual does not mean one of them has to be a host. Last game proved that it was often townies going at each other most of the time (not all).

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

He's just so...blah. He hasn't got a single vote for him (IIRC... was just looking at final tallies...) he just seems to be playing the "yes" man. That's why he's in my IDK list. I was hoping that my vote might get him talking. When people get defensive, people let things slip (I did last game).

indeed, the only votes for me so far have come from you. Once on day 1 because I wasn't posting a lot early on and now again on day 4 "to get me talking" so that I "let things slip". Too bad there are no things I could let slip

The accusation of being a "yes man" is pretty funny to me. On day 1, my vote was pretty decisive for activeStick unfortunately. On day 2, I was pretty vocal about a Girly vote. On day 3, I was pretty vocal about a mrkajz vote. Funnily enough, the only instance of me being a "yes man" relates to you when you told us mrkajz voters to "not screw this up again", which was when I took a closer look at ECF and agreed with others that he was indeed looking scummy on the final day of the vote.

Then again, I shouldn't have let your "don't screw this up again" post make me re-think my vote ... I wouldn't have taken a closer look at others if that kind of post had come from anybody else, but with you being confirmed town, I did. ECF would have probably been lynched anyway, but it was a pretty big mistake on my part. That probably won't happen again, because as it has become evident from your current vote: you being confirmed town doesn't automatically make you right

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I thought about this post for a while and if I should comment on it or not. Squiggs this is just about as helpful to the town as doing a death pact, except you are putting me on the line instead of yourself. It looks like you are trying to plan an escape route in the event that Mrkajz is lynched and flips town. You're trying to pass the blame to me for a lynch that hasn't even happened yet.

What if on the off chance Mrkajz flips town, you then lead the charge and get me lynched and I flip town? Then someone leads the charge on you and you flip town? Where does it end?

Also if I was less experienced and you said this you could drive me away from voting for Mrkajz because you already put a target on my back. You're lucky that I'm not too worried about that and will ignore your comment when placing my vote today.

That's a valid response. Although I wasn't trying to pass the blame, I can see how it would be taken that way. I was looking for one of two things to happen.

1. If any votes started to go towards mrkajz. I wanted to see who they were any why. If you are both town, would any hosts join this charge hoping to get out two townies?

2. If mrkajz does flip town, what would the reaction be on Day 5. Who would bring this comment up? I was leaving it there hoping someone would address it on Day 5 if mrkajz is not a host. This won't happen now that I have had to comment on the reason for my original post.

What I feel that is possibly interesting is no one wanted to take me up on this. Does that mean mrkajz is a host? Does it mean HG is a host? I'm not exactly sure yet. Are people not joining the movement because they think it's a bad idea or are one of the two of you hosts and they don't want to comment on it, hoping it will go away. I still think mrkajz is a host, so I'll continue to keep my vote there.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

That's a valid response. Although I wasn't trying to pass the blame, I can see how it would be taken that way. I was looking for one of two things to happen.

1. If any votes started to go towards mrkajz. I wanted to see who they were any why. If you are both town, would any hosts join this charge hoping to get out two townies?

2. If mrkajz does flip town, what would the reaction be on Day 5. Who would bring this comment up? I was leaving it there hoping someone would address it on Day 5 if mrkajz is not a host. This won't happen now that I have had to comment on the reason for my original post.

What I feel that is possibly interesting is no one wanted to take me up on this. Does that mean mrkajz is a host? Does it mean HG is a host? I'm not exactly sure yet. Are people not joining the movement because they think it's a bad idea or are one of the two of you hosts and they don't want to comment on it, hoping it will go away. I still think mrkajz is a host, so I'll continue to keep my vote there.

The reason nobody took you up on it is probably the same as the reason nobody took you up on your "lets pick one of HG or diss" to vote for plan. Putting up a false choice limits our options in the same way that pre-deciding who to vote for tomorrow limits our options.

I also think it's interesting that you've had two plans in a row, and each have the effect of making a HG15 lynch a fairly high probability. But you haven't really laid out a case against him as far as I can see. Do you think HG15 is host? If not, why keep suggesting plans that involve a 50% chance of lynching him?

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

The reason nobody took you up on it is probably the same as the reason nobody took you up on your "lets pick one of HG or diss" to vote for plan. Putting up a false choice limits our options in the same way that pre-deciding who to vote for tomorrow limits our options.

I also think it's interesting that you've had two plans in a row, and each have the effect of making a HG15 lynch a fairly high probability. But you haven't really laid out a case against him as far as I can see. Do you think HG15 is host? If not, why keep suggesting plans that involve a 50% chance of lynching him?

As I explained in the post you quoted, my plan was not to lynch HG, but to see if any votes went anywhere and to gauge the reaction.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

As I explained in the post you quoted, my plan was not to lynch HG, but to see if any votes went anywhere and to gauge the reaction.

What was your plan when you wanted everyone to vote either Diss or HG?

[mrkajz44]

With the deadline tomorrow, I feel its time for me to put a vote down.

Vote: Starseed

Here is my reasoning:

My analysis on the vote swings on Friday are my most pervasive form of evidence at this point. I think HG is scum for reasons and discussions I've posted int he past, so I really think the scum drove the vote of HG:

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I went back and checked out how the vote went down on Friday, because it was very weird. As I stated before when the votes came to me, I thought it was a scummy type play due to the timing. Squiggs and Timbo both jumped on me pretty quick, which I took to mean they were working together. At that time, it was HG who was the leading vote person, not ECF. Lego then came on to put me in the lead shortly after the Squiggs and Timbo vote.

So when I look back at it, that was the scummy time of day. Once the votes were moved to me, the fear of HG getting lynched sort of went away. At that point, the scum left the fore-front and we just got all paranoid about the shift in votes (myself included). Party ended up going to ECF, followed closely by Devo and Peanut. It's hard to say why, but it looks like the Seb vote for ECF may have been a driving factor as (at that point) Seb was as close to confirmed town as you could get with the Maz post.

In summary, I think there was a scummy move in votes on Friday, but it wasn't the move from me to ECF. There would be no reason for the scum to come out and move the votes from one town to the other, that late in the day. The real move was made to push the vote off HG, and those that participated were Squiggs, Timbo and Lego. It ended up with HG, Squiggs, Timbo, Lego and ECF on me at the end of the day, and I feel like at least two scum are in that vote. I'm still questioning HG (though he seems to be less steering so far today), but Squiggs weird behaviour so far puts him in my top two with HG.

The move off HG to me included Squiggs, Timbo, and Lego.

The squiggs angle doesn't really work now as he seems pretty somewhat of HG as scum and even said he'd lead the charge on him if I'm lynched and flip town. That'd be a ballsy bluff for scum.

Timbo I'm still not sure on. I can't get a great read, and that one vote shift isn't really enough for me at this point. I was more suspicious of him earlier, but nothing major has made me really convinced of anything.

That leaves Lego / Starseed. Lego was one of the people who moved over to me from HG, so that makes me think there are some mafia ties. As mentioned by others, Lego deciding to be subbed out has some suspicious feelings to it. Also, Starseed comes in with his analysis and pick outs PE, Timbo, Diss and me as top candidates. I guess I just feel like that list wont really make any waves. All the people on his list are already in most peoples "I don't know category" so its a nice way to blend in and make a vote / list without causing trouble. I see it as trying to blend too much, and with everything else, that pushes me over the edge for Lego / Starseed.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

What was your plan when you wanted everyone to vote either Diss or HG?

I felt on Day 3 they had some good back and forth, that could carry on to Day 4. Now that it's Day 4 I felt it was becoming a huge distraction, and not really accomplishing anything. I was hoping it would stop if I threw that out there. As starseed pointed out, one reason for the town loss in Smash Bros. was huge arguments between townies that were allowed to happen by the mafia. I didn't want to see this happen again.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

If we won the coin toss, we should have someone announce they have the spore early in the next game day. Are there any conclusions that could be drawn from that? Knowing the Captain/hosts sent it to you + their second choice (which could still be you), who would be more likely to send it to what players?

I think you mean if we won the coin toss, we should have someone announce that they passed the spore, as they would have to be turned to know they have it. If we've won the coin toss today that person should announce tomorrow who they passed it to. In the event of a reveal, do we go straight after the person with the spore again, or do we focus on other suspicions? Lynching girly didn't really get us anywhere on day 2.

In the event of no reveal it's most likely that someone has turned, but not a guarantee. There's still the possibility of the hosts passing the spore to each other.

[Hockeyguy15]

Vote: mrkajz44

I've already said my peace about him in many posts.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Vote: mrkajz44

I've already said my peace about him in many posts.

All we are saying is give peace a chance.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Timbo

All we are saying is give peace a chance.

Son of a...

[bizaro86]

So HG15s vote gives us a three way tie between Party, Starseed and MrKajz, each with 3 votes. I think it would be good for us to have pretty much decided by the end of the real time day today, so the person chosen has a chance to make a death post.

Could those of you who haven't voted consider voting so we know where we stand?

[Hockeyguy15]

I'm out of here at 6am tomorrow, so I'll be checking in though out the rest of this evening.

Probably won't be able to check in again before 8pm tomorrow, and I will be highly intoxicated.

[Party Elephant]

I'm concerned about starseed. As others have already stated, if Lego was scum then there must have been some pressure from his teammates to keep up or sub out. There's been points in this game where I've struggled to keep up, but I never thought to bow out. Maybe if I had two others pressuring me into it I might've. But that's all speculation.

What really concerns me is his vote for me:

Originally Posted by starseed

At this point, I think the best course is testing the Party Elephant and mrkaj link. A PE passenger flip does not let mrkaj off the hook (or vice versa if we lynch mrkaj), but I think it gives me more info at this point. I still feel like Diss is scum, but then I guess I always think that for some reason in these games. Diss's behaviour is more likely to be bad town than Party Elephant's voting patterns and shifts in focus are likely to be coming from a townie.

So (dis)honourable mentions to Dissent, Timbo (because it is tradition to have him on my list(plus other previously mentioned posts)), and Mrkaj, but:

Vote: Party Elephant

Which is based off a link that I know to be bogus. I addressed this, and even asked starseed about it directly:

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Starseed, from what you've posted today I'm sure you're very aware of this exchange that makes the "link" between me and mrkajz seem a little silly:






At this point mrkajz is almost actively ignoring the obvious reason why I might be posting at odd times. It wasn't until this list post by hockeyguy a few pages later:

...that I beat the issue into the ground once and for all:

At this point mrkajz removes his vote on me:


So, you seem like a pretty smart guy and the other people who have played in other mafia games with you are implying as much. I see this as one of two possibilities:
A. You haven't done your homework and are unaware/ignoring this exchange, which seems unlikely, or

B. You think it's staged. If mrkajz and I were both scum, he would be fully aware of why I was posting at odd times. The only explanation left for the exchange I quoted would be that we planned it out as a misdirection. Honestly, I'm a little flattered you think that.

So is it A or B?

I'm not ruling out that mrkajz could be scum by the way. Digging up these posts has got me thinking he could have been actively ignoring my location (it's right there every time I post after all) to pile on to the momentum I had accumulated at that point in day 1.

to which he hasn't responded. If he's scum, he knows there is no link between me and mrkajz. If he's town, he doesn't know, but if he's town why not just answer the question? He's already voting for me so why not back the vote up by saying he thinks our exchange was staged. Instead, he's chosen to ignore it, which has me leaning scum on him.

So at the risk of being labelled a "revenge vote", I'm gonna go with
vote: starseed

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

In the event of no reveal it's most likely that someone has turned, but not a guarantee. There's still the possibility of the hosts passing the spore to each other.

I'm not following the logic here, Party. Isn't it to the hosts advantage to try and turn people? What advantage is there to passing the spore amongst themselves?
Other than they would know where the spore is at all times if they only pass it to themselves I guess. But not sure that's really an advantage in terms of actually winning the game. They would want to turn townies, I thought.