CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by starseed

Squiggs, Lego made some good observations in those large posts! Also, I sincerely apologize for last game!

and Biz, I was the first scum to be voted out in that game :P

Yeah, but you were epic and awesome. I was there, I remember it quite clearly.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by starseed

At this point, I think the best course is testing the Party Elephant and mrkaj link. A PE passenger flip does not let mrkaj off the hook (or vice versa if we lynch mrkaj), but I think it gives me more info at this point. I still feel like Diss is scum, but then I guess I always think that for some reason in these games. Diss's behaviour is more likely to be bad town than Party Elephant's voting patterns and shifts in focus are likely to be coming from a townie.

So (dis)honourable mentions to Dissent, Timbo (because it is tradition to have him on my list(plus other previously mentioned posts)), and Mrkaj, but:

Vote: Party Elephant

Starseed, from what you've posted today I'm sure you're very aware of this exchange that makes the "link" between me and mrkajz seem a little silly:

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

For me, thinking about some of the posts that came off as "different" early on, I have to say that Seb's strategy definitely caught my attention. It has some merit for sure, where there is simply too much noise with lots of posts. Sort of a direct shot against "the more information the better". It's a bit outside the box, but not a terrible idea.

However, what struck me as much more interesting was the way Party sort of latched onto that idea and ran with it. It seems like Seb thought out that strategy and wants to stick to it, but Party just grabbed a hold of the same idea and uses that to explain a very low post count, that has little to no content. Party also said they were new to Mafia, and I'm guessing drawing a Mafia card in their very first game would be very nerve racking and the fear of slipping up would be great, hence the low post count without much substance. Their instant vote sort of tears down that argument though, but maybe it was just heat of the moment?

So, I'm sticking to my idea of waiting until Monday to make a voting decision because posting is so infrequent on the weekends, but Party is at the top of my list for now. I'd like to hear a little more from them.

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Alright then. Like I've said, I'm new to this mafia game. I'm a bit jealous that lots of you are posting analyses of posters based off "how they played the last game(s)" as I'm just starting from scratch with all of you. I noticed early on that a lot of you were saying that the people not posting a lot are suspicious, I guess only one mentioned me by name though.

I was trying to get in on the game when I read and agreed with Seb's post. I don't really have a lot to say and I'm still feeling out how the game works so the idea made sense. Some of you think it's suspicious, fine, but GGG voting for me based on that flimsy logic really irritated me.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I appreciate the response, Party. However, I still get that feeling where you are a new player and have no experience, so drawing a Mafia card in the first game would be intimidating and as a result you are just trying to avoid making waves.

Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but responding to my post so quickly just makes me feel like you are constantly monitoring the thread, but not really posting much unless you are specifically mentioned. This has happened twice now. First with GGGs vote against you, you were able to respond in just a few minutes, and then after my post last night, you were able to respond in about an hour. It just seems so lurky to me.

Vote: Party Elephant

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

3) As for the vote on Party - I did mention in earlier posts that I would likely wait until Monday to vote as the weekend is typically slow and I wanted as much talk as possible before voting. You did mention the Party theory where he is newby scum first, and when I re-read Party's posts I tended to agree. I expanded that thought a little more with his response times and voted after that.

At this point mrkajz is almost actively ignoring the obvious reason why I might be posting at odd times. It wasn't until this list post by hockeyguy a few pages later:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Party Elephant - One and done.

...that I beat the issue into the ground once and for all:

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

I feel like I'm beating a dead horse here. My posts are usually "one and done" because if I get home from work and post at 6pm, it's midnight in Calgary and there's no one to reply. Most of the activity has been taking place while I'm either asleep or at work. I guess I could leave a string of posts in a row like some others are doing?

At this point mrkajz removes his vote on me:

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

So I completely missed the fact that Party is, in fact, in NZ and therefore their odd posting schedule might be completely due to the time difference.

I looked back on when they tended to respond and it seemed to line up with the NZ time zone rather well. Therefore, my earlier conclusion that they were lurking and only responding in the thread when their name came up is pretty much shot; it was all just a coincidence. That was the main reason I had a hunch on them, so I don't feel right keeping the vote on them.

unvote

So, you seem like a pretty smart guy and the other people who have played in other mafia games with you are implying as much. I see this as one of two possibilities:
A. You haven't done your homework and are unaware/ignoring this exchange, which seems unlikely, or

B. You think it's staged. If mrkajz and I were both scum, he would be fully aware of why I was posting at odd times. The only explanation left for the exchange I quoted would be that we planned it out as a misdirection. Honestly, I'm a little flattered you think that.

So is it A or B?

I'm not ruling out that mrkajz could be scum by the way. Digging up these posts has got me thinking he could have been actively ignoring my location (it's right there every time I post after all) to pile on to the momentum I had accumulated at that point in day 1.

[Party Elephant]

Been doing a bit of bedtime reading. Focusing mainly on yesterday's activity, now knowing that ECF was a passenger.

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

It would be pretty hard to be steering the ship as much as HG has while posting so much, and not have a glaring slip up if he were scum. I guess hindsight is 20/20 and there might be somewhere he did slip up earlier that we haven't caught on to, but I just don't see it right now/

Was he wrong on the two votes? Sure, but so were a lot of us. That's not an indictment this early in the game, espesically when not a lot of other people aren't putting their neck out.

I'm not buying this HG scum push

Yeah actually, I'm going to do a humble backpedal right now. The last two real nights I've done a ton of reading, and I'm feeling like I wasn't objective enough on hockeyguy. I convinced myself of an against the grain theory and didn't really do a whole lot to back it up. I've been a bit rash throughout this game so far and I can see why a number of people think I'm scum. Even worse is that I may have drawn some scum to pile on with me. I'm looking at mrkajz in a different light right now, here's why:

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Posts like this are exactly why I'm suspicious of you. You just declare that a host wouldn't vote the way you voted, therefore it must be one of the people you list. Are we just supposed to gloss over the logic that got you there? It's the way you write it, like it should be a certainty to all of us that no host would vote that way, that further leads me to believe you are a host.

vote hockeyguy15

I'll admit that I was twisting hockeyguy's words quite a bit here. I had convinced myself of a theory that so far has yet to bear any fruit, and didn't want to back down from it. But just two posts later, mrkajz comes in with this:

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

The HG angle is interesting. I checked out the post count and HG has 162, with second place being just under 100; so HG has ~60% more posts than the second most active poster. Hard to argue that HG is not steering the ship, or at the very least, is key in the direction of the conversation each day.

He was definitely the leader on the Girly lynch. Here are a few of his first posts after the spore reveal that were directed at Girly.





He essentially decided immediately that Girly turned because her first post was not "I did not turn". I'm not saying that was terrible logic at the time, but as the day wore on and more logical discussions were made, HG did not back down and may have been the beginning of the end for Girly.

It just seems like HG likes to be the driver, makes decisions somewhat quickly and is hard to convince otherwise. Now the question is: would that be scum behaviour, or would that just be a strong town personality? I would think just strong town, but I'm starting to see the other side of the argument.

It's like I just set him up and he ran with it. Jeez, I can see why starseed thinks there's a link between us.

Back to ECF. This was a now confirmed townie's opinion of mrkajz:

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

We really don't need to be concrned about the spore right now.

Mrkajz just adding some noise?

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

I guess I'm getting some flack for being inconspicuous, so I'll try and get the ball rolling on who I think is the biggest target right now:

Vote: mrkajz44

Guy is the king of the drive by post. He wades in here, tries to get everyone side tracked or confused and then disappears.

And mrkajz's rebuttal:

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I tried to get the username mrkzatchwpfh, but it was taken unfortunately, so I had to go with mrkajz44

As for my "drive-by posts", I am quite busy at work and therefore do find it hard to find time through-out the day to post. I tend to find a lull in the day and try to make bigger posts, as I cannot check in constantly. I can see how that would be seen as "drive-by" as the conversation has usually moved on once I get a chance to check back, but that's just the nature of how my work is right now.

The more I think about it, the more I see HG as being Oling 2.0 this game. As stated before, he has a ton of posts and has a great deal of influence in where the conversation is going. It addition, I feel he's getting quite aggressive, so I wonder if a few of us are onto something:



His reply to me when I said HG might have been the beginning of the end for Girly was simply "I didn't like her reaction". I am still curious as to why HG ignored the logic of other posters, and seemed to be a bit headstrong about changing opinions. I also feel his "owning" of getting Girly lynched is a bit of a "I'm running the show, try to stop me" sort of thing:



Looking at the votes, he was both in on lyching Active and Girly, and in my opinion, quite central to both their lynching. I think the hosts would be okay with a stronger personalty such as HG get in on both votes, and even steering people in that direction. Afterwards its easy to claim "well, a host wouldn't be on both lynches of townpeople". It's a good decoy and HG's style plays right into it.

Vote: Hockeyguy15

I wonder if mrkajz would have gone after hockeyguy at all if I hadn't done it first. Let a noob who is behaving erratically lead the charge, then pile on.

Thoughts, anyone?

[Hockeyguy15]

Party just because mrkajz had a vote against you with weak reasoning doesn't necessarily mean you are not connected, not only that but he also unvoted you shortly after. From my experience scum have to have 'disagreements' to put a little distance between each other at times.

So while I am not saying you are 100% connected, I am not going to believe you are not connected just because of that earlier exchange.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

PE first vote on me questions the direction of the group and lays it at my feet. Disagreeing with a posters opinion is fine, but it isn't usually the sole reason for voting for them.

Vote 2 from PE. This time says that I declare a host wouldn't vote the way I voted, like I said without a doubt that no host would be in on both lynches. I said I thought it was less likely, not that it was impossible. I was trying to think what the hosts would do and how they would vote, it seemed logical to me that they wouldn't want to be in both votes. I'm not sure why he is saying that I'm acting like it should be certainty to everyone when I didn't even say it was a certainty to me.

My point is that all of these votes against me lack any real substance, and they don't have any real effort or thought put into them. Both Diss and mrkajz seem like they are trying to come up with something so they use vague reasons and hypothetical host scenarios. PE's votes are pretty much because he disagrees with my reasoning and then either misinterprets what I said or chose to manipulate it to fit his argument. Puxlut generally seems to dislike me.

Party how come earlier when I did this post about the votes against me so far you didn't comment on it?(I cut down the content to just the stuff that applies to you, post #1137). The only thing you commented on was when Puxlut said she just disliked my posting style and her gut said I was scummy.

Now you seem to be saying the same thing I brought up earlier, that you were manipulating what I said.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

[...]You were in danger of being lynched in Day 3 and the votes magically came off of you. I think that is a huge deal. In Day 3 you tried making the argument that the votes against you were so well executed that they seemed planned. All of a sudden the votes come off of you , ECF gets lynched and that's just some coincidence that you don't want to talk about. We all know that ECF was town. I went to bat for ECF and stated I thought he was town. I'm now stating I think you are a host mrkajz. I was right with ECF, and I bet I am right on you as well[...]

Actually, I feel like this is the opposite of true. Below is link to my first post after Day 4 started. The entire post talks about the vote movement and my analysis related to it. My reasoning is the votes came on to me suddenly due to Mafia moves, but the moves off me to ECF were just confused town at the end of the day, mainly due to the vote and reasoning by Seb.

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1312

[Timbo]

Hey Starseed welcome to the madness I'm happy to see I made an honourable mention in your post and I am estatic that there are no vigilante kills in this game.

[mrkajz44]

To Party about my voting of HG right after you, I will admit that your vote of HG kick-started my thought process and heaver research on HG. To use the term "pile-on" is unreasonable though, as I laid out my thought process well and continued dialogue with HG after that about how he seems to jump on certain posters, but not others (hence, driving the bus).

As you've seen, I'm not a huge fan of voting early in the day - I prefer to gather information and see how my opinion has changed from the day before (or just earlier in the day) based on new discussions. That does leave me open to criticism I suppose, as I am seen only as a follower, but to me, that is a more effective way of hunting than to just throw out a vote early and see if something sticks.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Actually, I feel like this is the opposite of true. Below is link to my first post after Day 4 started. The entire post talks about the vote movement and my analysis related to it. My reasoning is the votes came on to me suddenly due to Mafia moves, but the moves off me to ECF were just confused town at the end of the day, mainly due to the vote and reasoning by Seb.

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1312

Lets look at this shall we.

Vote Count

With 15 alive, it takes 8 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 5 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn't Voted (1): Timbo

Voted:
Hockeyguy15 (4): Party Elephant, mrkajz44, dissentowner, Puxlut
East Coast Flame (4): GGG, SebC, Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86
mrkajz44 (2): devo22, Hockeyguy15
Timbo (1): Peanut
Lego Man (1): squiggs96
Party Elephant (1): Lego Man
bizaro86 (1): East Coast Flame

The deadline is Friday, June 5th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.
__________________


Vote Count

With 15 alive, it takes 8 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 5 votes to deadline lynch.


Voted:
mrkajz44 (6): devo22, Hockeyguy15, squiggs96, Timbo, Lego Man, East coast Flame
Hockeyguy15 (4): Party Elephant, mrkajz44, dissentowner, Puxlut
East Coast Flame (4): GGG, SebC, Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86
Timbo (1): Peanut



Vote Count

With 15 alive, it takes 8 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 5 votes to deadline lynch.

Voted:
East Coast Flame (7): GGG, SebC, Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86, Party Elephant, devo22, Peanut
mrkajz44 (5): Hockeyguy15, squiggs96, Timbo, Lego Man, East Coast Flame
Hockeyguy15 (3): mrkajz44, dissentowner, Puxlut


So the move on you was mafia right? Was that devo22 since he started on you? Or are you saying HG15?
Or was it when you had 6 votes against you? Where I know for a fact that 2 are confirmed town. That means if you are right the two that joined in are scum Legoman and squiggs, or devo or HG15

The move off of you was town influenced by SebC? Well funny enough that was only 1 person devo22.
Are you confirming now that devo22 is town because he pulled the vote from you and aided in a lynch on a townie? Is this what you are saying multiple times this day?

Maybe he is in cahoots with you (I can't believe I said cahoots) and you told him in the scum thread to pull off as you came under higher scrutiny and were in possible position to be lynched?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

To Party about my voting of HG right after you, I will admit that your vote of HG kick-started my thought process and heaver research on HG. To use the term "pile-on" is unreasonable though, as I laid out my thought process well and continued dialogue with HG after that about how he seems to jump on certain posters, but not others (hence, driving the bus).

As you've seen, I'm not a huge fan of voting early in the day - I prefer to gather information and see how my opinion has changed from the day before (or just earlier in the day) based on new discussions. That does leave me open to criticism I suppose, as I am seen only as a follower, but to me, that is a more effective way of hunting than to just throw out a vote early and see if something sticks.

The vote that PE posted from you doesn't look like you were saying I jump on certain posters but not others. It looks like you were saying I ignored other peoples logic and wouldn't change my opinion. Then you continue on about how I was central to both the lynching of activeStick and Girly, yet I have posted how I wasn't that central to the activeStick lynch and I don't think you've ever commented on that.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Actually, I feel like this is the opposite of true. Below is link to my first post after Day 4 started. The entire post talks about the vote movement and my analysis related to it. My reasoning is the votes came on to me suddenly due to Mafia moves, but the moves off me to ECF were just confused town at the end of the day, mainly due to the vote and reasoning by Seb.

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1312

I understand what you are trying to say. You are saying all the votes onto you were host driven and all the votes on ECF were town driven. I'm saying I don't believe this to be true. You said 2 of HG, Squiggs, Timbo, Lego and ECF are scum. We know ECF is town. I know I am town. According to your analysis that leaves 2 of HG, Timbo and Lego/starseed to be scum. There is quite possibly 1 scum in there, but I'd be shocked if there were two.

The two votes that swung it from ECF to you were devo switching his vote from you to ECF, and Peanut switching from Timbo to ECF. I'm not too concerned about the Peanut vote anymore. The devo one is somewhat concerning. You were in real trouble before that happened.

[GGG]

I do think subs are more likely to be scum but not significantly so i am for now discounting it my thoughts on the Lego starseed slot. Even if its twice as likely for scum to switch out it raises the scum prob from 3/14 to 6/14 and i dont believe its twice as likely for scum to sub out.

I am jumping on the Party Wagon now for reasons i posted earlier. Thought i had actually voted earlier but didnt.

vote party elephant

[GGG]

Diss,

Outside of HG leading why do you find him scummy?

[Oling_Roachinen]

I think I'm happy testing the Lego Man and Hockeyguy15 connection.

Lego Man's posts were all over the place. First his intuition has him voting for GirlySports in the first day. The next day he's sure she's town, so much so that she doesn't want her to be investigated despite believing she had received the spore. Yet he still votes for her.

Originally Posted by Lego Man

To be completely honest, i have this nagging feeling in the back of my mind that either GGG or more likely HG is scum. Something just feels off going through this thread. I doubt Oling... but am weary too. Bizaro hasn't really stood out for me... which makes wonder why.

He says he feels HG is scum. Right after this post traction for a Hockeyguy15 vote kicks off. By the next time Lego Man posts though, he doesn't vote Hockeyguy15. In fact he sort of somewhat defends him in his long post and in subsequent posts starts putting him on his town list.
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=978

Lego Man had a couple 'mistakes' like the XXX and not wanting to investigate GirlySports (if she wasn't lynched) that I don't believe Hockeyguy15 commented on.

They also took opposite stances, Hockeyguy15 was sure GirlySports was turned while Lego Man was sure she was town. I don't know why either would be so committed, and Lego Man using Hockeyguy15's wrong assumption as evidence of town caught my eye.

I've said it about others, and been wrong, but I do think if Lego Man or Hockeyguy15 ended up being host that I would have a hard time believing the other.

If Hockeyguy15 is host though, I don't know why he would send me the spore on night 0 though. Just seems like it would be an unneeded 'connection' when there's so little evidence to go on early on.

[Hockeyguy15]

It's really quiet in here.

Oling/Puxlut/Seb have seemed to dropped off.
Peanut/Diss/Devo are kind of here, but not really adding a lot.
Timbo/Bizaro/GGG are doing a bit, but I've seen them do more.
Squiggs/PE/starseed have picked up the posting frequency.
mrkajz is doing damage control.

And as I type this Oling shows up with a decent post.

I feel like we need a little more urgency here instead of being content to sit back and wait for the deadline. I'm not saying we need to lynch early, but leaving everything to the last day isn't the best because it's easy for the hosts to hide.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by GGG

Diss,

Outside of HG leading why do you find him scummy?

He speaks in absolutes all the time for one and they have proven to be misleading. He assured us GS was a host, I even gave him the benefit of the doubt there and voted with him and she was a passenger. He has been after me all the time and I know I am town and then when mrkajz44 took a stand for me and he could not get the votes to stay on me he switched to mrkajz44 once again assuring us he is a host. People have this theory that the scum will lay back and lurk but that would be stupid because that is what a lot of the town would expect. Much better to hide in the wide open and try and gain the town's trust. Oling, you wondered why HG would have you get the spore on day 0. I think the answer to that would be obvious no matter who the scum is. 1) You are a strong player, maybe the strongest. 2.) You made a post about getting the spore on day 1, so they pass it to you to hope to turn you or at least start the suspicion train.

[dissentowner]

Now he is trying to say I have never made a case for him being scum but really I have all game. Just because I did not do a huge post like on Timbo does not mean I have not posted reasons.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I think I'm happy testing the Lego Man and Hockeyguy15 connection.

Lego Man's posts were all over the place. First his intuition has him voting for GirlySports in the first day. The next day he's sure she's town, so much so that she doesn't want her to be investigated despite believing she had received the spore. Yet he still votes for her.


He says he feels HG is scum. Right after this post traction for a Hockeyguy15 vote kicks off. By the next time Lego Man posts though, he doesn't vote Hockeyguy15. In fact he sort of somewhat defends him in his long post and in subsequent posts starts putting him on his town list.
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=978

Lego Man had a couple 'mistakes' like the XXX and not wanting to investigate GirlySports (if she wasn't lynched) that I don't believe Hockeyguy15 commented on.

They also took opposite stances, Hockeyguy15 was sure GirlySports was turned while Lego Man was sure she was town. I don't know why either would be so committed, and Lego Man using Hockeyguy15's wrong assumption as evidence of town caught my eye.

I've said it about others, and been wrong, but I do think if Lego Man or Hockeyguy15 ended up being host that I would have a hard time believing the other.

If Hockeyguy15 is host though, I don't know why he would send me the spore on night 0 though. Just seems like it would be an unneeded 'connection' when there's so little evidence to go on early on.

I've already commented on why I did not jump on the XXX, because Lego wasn't as high on my suspicion list as others so I let it go. I can always circle back to his posts later on if more jumps out at me. As for the don't investigate Girly comment, at the time it happened I believe only you picked up on it and at the time I was looking at Girly's posts and the people who had voted for me.

As for being so committed to Girly is because I didn't think her reaction and answers were consistent with someone who wasn't turned or it was possible she was a host. Clearly I was wrong.

If I was a host why do you assume I would have control of the spore? If I was a host that doesn't mean I am automatically the captain and get to send the spore.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

If I was a host why do you assume I would have control of the spore? If I was a host that doesn't mean I am automatically the captain and get to send the spore.

But you don't have to be Captain to help the Captain decide where to send it, especially if the Captain is a newbie player, they would lean on you for advice.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

He speaks in absolutes all the time for one and they have proven to be misleading. He assured us GS was a host, I even gave him the benefit of the doubt there and voted with him and she was a passenger. He has been after me all the time and I know I am town and then when mrkajz44 took a stand for me and he could not get the votes to stay on me he switched to mrkajz44 once again assuring us he is a host. People have this theory that the scum will lay back and lurk but that would be stupid because that is what a lot of the town would expect. Much better to hide in the wide open and try and gain the town's trust. Oling, you wondered why HG would have you get the spore on day 0. I think the answer to that would be obvious no matter who the scum is. 1) You are a strong player, maybe the strongest. 2.) You made a post about getting the spore on day 1, so they pass it to you to hope to turn you or at least start the suspicion train.

I did not assure you that Girly was a host. I said I was sure was infected and had the possibility of being a host. I've corrected you on this before and you still say it.