CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

With 2 players emerging as frontrunners, it'll be interesting to see if more voters switch to the popular options or stick with their original suspicions knowing that person won't be lynched. If a blind lynch is better than no lynch, will those advocating it align their vote accordingly? I'm thinking of GGG and ECF specifically.

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

I don't think I worded this very well. Just skimmed over the thread for the posters who insist that we have to lynch someone on day 1, but who aren't aligned with either of the frontrunners. GGG and ECF have both posted that it's better to blindly lynch someone than have no lynch, and are both currently voting for people with one vote each. Will either of them change to ensure a lynch?

Again trying to keep focus on the front runners

Then Day 2 he changes tune

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

We're putting a lot on the line over the assumption that oling is telling the truth. I don't like it. I don't think I'll vote for timbo either since he seems to be the only one apart from me that doesn't trust oling. I'm gonna hold off voting for now.

He never gives a reason for why he no longer thinks Girly is a host just that he's worried about Oling.

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

vote: hockeyguy15
This vote has me questioning the direction of the group as a whole. I think we've been manipulated too easily into this very specific strategy of voting on a potential spore holder that hinges entirely on taking one poster at his word. I've already laid out how us lynching girly and investigating oling could have us come up empty handed while also losing track of the spore, as if we're even sure where it was in the first place. With the way hockeyguy is forcing the vote on girly, I have to think he's steering he group in the wrong direction.

Then he goes for hockey guy. To me this appears to be going after guys that he can't lynch. He can tunnel away and not tip his hand.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by GGG

Again trying to keep focus on the front runners

Then Day 2 he changes tune



He never gives a reason for why he no longer thinks Girly is a host just that he's worried about Oling.



Then he goes for hockey guy. To me this appears to be going after guys that he can't lynch. He can tunnel away and not tip his hand.

Nope, I really wanted to lynch hockeyguy. I was disappointed and probably reacted too quick when the votes were piling up on mrkajz but I was confident voting for ecf as were a lot of us.

[Party Elephant]

And the idea some of you are trotting around that mrkajz and I are working together is laughable. On day 1 I had to beat the time zone thing to death to get him to realize why I was posting at odd times. Cue GGG to say that was a play we cooked up in the scum thread.

[GGG]

Party,

What do you think of Lego?

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by GGG

Party,

What do you think of Lego?

I'm just gonna re-read his posts. Won't take long.

[Lego Man]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

I'm just gonna re-read his posts. Won't take long.

Veeeeerryy funny.

[Lego Man]

Quick update: Work has been extremely busy the past two days, but tonight (my time, so in about 13 hours) I will have time to post my thoughts on Day 3 and what happened in Day 4.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Lego Man

Veeeeerryy funny.

Sorry I couldn't resist.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by GGG

Party,

What do you think of Lego?

Somewhat detached, not posting a lot but still keeping up with what's going on. There's been times where I thought he was being a bit too coy, but reading all of his posts at once I don't really see it as a trend. I think some of his posts are pretty thoughtful and analytical and he is contributing a bit of a different style which I find useful. I don't find much to be suspicious about.

Of course, I'm wary of anyone who is "too x to be scum" (too inactive, too active, too abrasive, too risky).

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by GGG

Party Elephant because of his tunnel at players he won't likely be able to lynch and his day one play. Day one he was all over the place clearly being noobish. The question was noobtown or noobscum. Day 2 it seems he got some advice. Pick someone you don't think will get lynched and stay after them. Day two was Oling is host conspiracy despite the previous day going after girly, day 3 was HockeyGuy is leading us around.

See, the problem with that theory is that you're completely ignoring the fact that I very clearly was onto hockeyguy on day 2, and voted as such:

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

vote: hockeyguy15
This vote has me questioning the direction of the group as a whole. I think we've been manipulated too easily into this very specific strategy of voting on a potential spore holder that hinges entirely on taking one poster at his word. I've already laid out how us lynching girly and investigating oling could have us come up empty handed while also losing track of the spore, as if we're even sure where it was in the first place. With the way hockeyguy is forcing the vote on girly, I have to think he's steering he group in the wrong direction.

So it's not like I changed my outlook from day 2 to 3, or 4 for that matter. Day 1 was a crapshoot and I didn't know what I was doing yet.

[Party Elephant]

Also, I learned from doing a search for posts by Lego Man that there is a CP user named "legosex".

[devo22]

Originally Posted by GGG

This is devos first day one vote. From a scum perspective he just votes among the two front runners who he would now both are town provides some reasoning and makes a decision.

except you miss the part where I voted for Girly earlier that day. If I was scum, I'd had known that both were town. Why should I have cared which one takes the fall? That makes no sense. Also please keep in mind that I live in Europe. I wanted to cast a vote and had to do it at that time. Deadlibe is always 6 AM here ... sorry but I can't stay up until 6. And on a Saturday I'm surely not up at 6 either

Originally Posted by GGG

The devo laments the day one results to me this is a minor scum tell

sorry for being disappointed about lynching the smuggler. I swear some of you look for breadcrumbs in the weirdest places ...

Originally Posted by GGG

Day 2 and devo again waits until it's almost decide to vote. Devo votes immediately following this after consenous is almost reached.

I pushed for a Girly vote most of the day, it's not like I tried to hide or anything. Sure I could have voted earlier, which would habe changed nothing.

Originally Posted by GGG

Here devo is back to i'll just follow the consenous

like I wrote, ECF looked scummy to me. In hindsight, I should have kept my vote on mrkajz instead of changing my vote at 2 AM ... that was a mistake obviously.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

See, the problem with that theory is that you're completely ignoring the fact that I very clearly was onto hockeyguy on day 2, and voted as such:


So it's not like I changed my outlook from day 2 to 3, or 4 for that matter. Day 1 was a crapshoot and I didn't know what I was doing yet.

I don't think I'm ignoring that. The change in behaviour was between day 1 and day 2. You were voting girly day 1. Day 2 we get more information that increases the odds that girly is scum/turned and you don't identify why you stopped voting for her.

You instead switch to a strategy of going after the hardest people to lynch in Oling and HG. Two options here one on your own you became more comfortable with the game and changed strategy or two someone is coaching you.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Somewhat detached, not posting a lot but still keeping up with what's going on. There's been times where I thought he was being a bit too coy, but reading all of his posts at once I don't really see it as a trend. I think some of his posts are pretty thoughtful and analytical and he is contributing a bit of a different style which I find useful. I don't find much to be suspicious about.

Of course, I'm wary of anyone who is "too x to be scum" (too inactive, too active, too abrasive, too risky).

This is more or less how I feel about Lego. Though he's not posting much everything is content filled. He's not engaging in discussion though which could be explained by being busy or could be scummy.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I also find it hard to believe that Mrkajz has not voted for any of the 3 who were lynched, but is on the runner up all 3 times.

Well, on the last vote I was actually the runner up, so that's not really true. I also wasn't going to just move from HG over to ECF (on Day 3) to try and save my skin, even when the votes were close. So really, I've voted for the runner up twice in two days.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I agree with Puxlut here, as the first person to reveal could by lying about one of these things (or both I guess):

1) They actually got the spore
2) They didn't turn when they got the spore

So really, the big risk with pushing an early reveal is thinking we have better information now, when really we are worse off than before.

So early on mrkajz says this and the post itself isn't suspicious, but if you put it in the context of a host saying it becomes a little more interesting. Oling had the spore at the point and wasn't infected, mrkajz was the first person who stated that maybe the spore holder wasn't aware they had it if they weren't infected. Now if mrkajz is a host he could be saying this because he knows tomorrow Oling will reveal he has the spore, and is trying to plant some doubt before it happens.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Day one is always tough. GGG and Oiling came out super strong, but that seemed to be their style in the last game as well, so I'm not convinced that's a tell in itself. Then we have the inactive crowd (Party, devo, Active, and Lego). Active's 1 post was gameplay related, but the others haven't really said much at all. I feel like I don't have a good read on anyone yet, but I think more chatter usually helps out with starting to get some reads on people, so hopefully the inactives get a little more involved soon.

Early on mrkajz talks about people being more active and getting involved, but checking out his post history he's only ahead of Lego and Peanut. It seems like he came out and put himself in the middle of the pack on day 1 and then kind of hung back. There was a lot of talk going on day 2 about the spore, so he could have used that to his advantage to stay hidden, then on day 3 he had to scramble because he was on the block.

Out of his 46 posts he had 17 posts on day 1, 9 on day 2, and 15 on day 3. On day 3 he had 10 posts in 4 days, and then when the vote switched to him he had 5 posts in about 5.5 hours.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Also, I learned from doing a search for posts by Lego Man that there is a CP user named "legosex".

So Lego's ex just comes on here to stalk him? That's weird.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Also, I learned from doing a search for posts by Lego Man that there is a CP user named "legosex".

And he said it was work that was keeping him too busy to post...

[devo22]

lego sex is the new turtle sex.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

GirlySports (5): Lego Man, Party Elephant, activeStick, mrkajz44, SebC

Going through the thread again and this jumped out. I'm willing to bet there was scum on the girly wagon and the active wagon. Looking at the Girly Wagon we know active is town and it's highly likely Seb is town. That leaves one of Lego, Mrkajz, or Party as scum.

This seems like a pretty good catch to me. Since we know scum were likely on each vote and we have some borderline confirmed townies (at least during day 1 for Seb) we can start doing process of elimination. Mrkajz is the vote leader right now, and his lack of definitiveness in posting does seem like a scummy behaviour. Lego and Party are also low post counts with some inconsistencies, however. Lego had the terrible "I think she's town voting anyway" comment, and Party Elephant who went after Girly day 1 but not day 2, which makes no sense unless he had some sort of undisclosed motive.

All three have some questionable behaviour, and almost certainly one of them is scum and is trying to hide with a low post count. However, I am concerned that we're latching on to one player and not "running people up the flagpole" enough. We got lots of good vote trains with patterns and unvotes to analyze yesterday, I think it would be good to run a few people up today. And since one of these three is most probably scum, I think they make sense initially.

vote: party elephant

I would be willing to vote any of these if we get close to the deadline and its looking like no lynch (possible if the thread stays this quiet).