CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[dissentowner]

Bizaro has voted all three times on a lynched passenger. His response to this is that a scum would not do that but if you were a scum why would you do what you believe the town expects? Maybe that is the smart scum play, instead of lurking or trying to throw the odd vote you hide by being out in the open. Like I stated before, there are 3 scum to start, you have one who is agressive and tries to steer the ship and two who kind of lurk. Still suspicious of HG too. Peanut very well could be one of the lurker scum given her post count and votes.I still think everyone needs to take a closer look at Bizaro's posts.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Bizaro has voted all three times on a lynched passenger. His response to this is that a scum would not do that but if you were a scum why would you do what you believe the town expects? Maybe that is the smart scum play, instead of lurking or trying to throw the odd vote you hide by being out in the open. Like I stated before, there are 3 scum to start, you have one who is agressive and tries to steer the ship and two who kind of lurk. Still suspicious of HG too. Peanut very well could be one of the lurker scum given her post count and votes.I still think everyone needs to take a closer look at Bizaro's posts.

Interesting. I've been saying pretty much the same thing for a while. I'll have to check out his posts a bit more.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Now knowing that mrkajz44 was town, here's a summary on the voting to end Day 3:

At 8:00 am MDT it was:

Voted:
Hockeyguy15 (4): Party Elephant, mrkajz44, dissentowner, Puxlut
East Coast Flame (3): GGG, SebC, Oling_Roachinen
mrkajz44 (2): East Coast Flame, devo22
dissentowner (1): Hockeyguy15
Timbo (1): Peanut
Lego Man (1): squiggs96
Party Elephant (1): Lego Man

Over the next couple of hours the new votes are:

• ECF unvotes mrkajz and puts his vote to bizaro
• HG switches his vote from diss to mrkajz
• bizaro places his vote on ECF
• I switch my vote from Lego
• Timbo votes for mrkajz

At this point there is a three way tie between HG, ECF and mrkajz at 4 votes each.

• Lego switches his vote from me to mrkajz (Side note: this is the 2nd time in this game someone has stopped voting for me, and has voted for the person I'm voting for. The 1st was HG voting activeStick)
• ECF returns to switch his vote back from bizaro to mrkajz

mrkajz now leads 6-4-4-1 with everyone having voted. Lego comments in #1217 the vote seems off. GGG in #1223 says this vote is scum driven based on HG's logic.

• PartyElephant says HG is the most scummy, but moves his vote from HG to ECF in order to save mrkajz

In post #1237 mrkajz gives a brief summary and says the votes moving to him seem so well planned it must be a scum plan. I tried driving the vote towards mrkajz so I know it's not scum driven.

• devo doesn't like ECF coming back to the game, even though he never said he was officially gone, and moves his vote from mrkajz to ECF

ECF now leads 6-5-3-1 in the vote with three hours to go.

• Peanut switches her vote from Timbo to ECF

ECF leads vote 7-5-3 with mrkajz and HG 2nd and 3rd respectively. Timbo states he doesn't like the lynch and Puxlut says she doesn't want to hammer.


I really don't like how mrkajz had a good sized lead and then the vote quickly switched to ECF. Using mrkajz's words, it seems like it was scum driven. Peanut moved from Timbo to essentially lynch ECF. She also was the hammer on Girly. I think it's a very brazen plan to do so, with the reply going to be: "Why would a host be so out there?" There have been enough people playing this game multiple times that you need to do something that equates to a bluff in poker. I don't think this is your idea, but I think it's been discussed in the mafia thread. I've been wanting a vote to go against either Peanut or Lego for a while. I have gotten zero support in my attempts to lynch Lego. That concerns me, so I'm going to see if I can garner support against Peanut.



vote Peanut

The only reason for the move away from mrkajz being scum driven is if mrKajz is scum. So why do you vote peanut via an association with mrkajz then just vote for mrkajz?

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by GGG

The only reason for the move away from mrkajz being scum driven is if mrKajz is scum. So why do you vote peanut via an association with mrkajz then just vote for mrkajz?

I can get on board voting mrkajz again. Assuming mrkajz is a host, there are two other hosts out there. I believe Peanut or Lego is one of them. I think there would be support to vote mrkajz now, given that ECF flipped town. What I'd like to do first is to go after one of Peanut or Lego, and we can always go back to getting mrk. If we lynch mrk, and he flips town, then I think we have very little to go on for Day 5. If we go after someone else, knowing we can circle back to mrk, it might open up more clues to who the rest of the host team is. I think a Peanut or Lego vote will take more time, so I'd rather start there at the beginning of Day 4. It gives me the most time to get support, for which there hasn't been a lot so far.

[squiggs96]

To follow up, as I hit send to early:

In Day 1 we went after activeStick, over Girly. In Day 2 we went after Girly without much discussion on anyone else. I don't want to see that happen here.

[GGG]

What differentiates peanuts play as newb scum vs newb town. The one thing I notice is that peanut seems unaware of the game state when she votes. There was no indication that she was aware she lynched girly and no warning that her ECF vote put him at one vote to lynch.

To me this seems just nebbish rather than alignment indicitive. I get a scummy vibe from peanut but can't back it up with any of her posting or voting

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

To follow up, as I hit send to early:

In Day 1 we went after activeStick, over Girly. In Day 2 we went after Girly without much discussion on anyone else. I don't want to see that happen here.

Yeah but we lynched girly because of the spore rather than than she was the runner up on day 1. If oling had claimed to pass the spore to anyone else we would've lynched them instead.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Peanut

Dissentowner was also in voting trouble at one point during Day 3 and the votes all migrated away from him as well. I personally thought his explanation posts were well thought out and logical, so it makes sense to me that he is/was town. But building on Oling's thought about who was in trouble at one point yesterday and then votes moved away, Diss should be in that conversation.

I'm not really sure what to say in response to Squiggs. He's on my case for laying too low, and now he's on my case for being too aggressive with my votes?! I believe he's the poster who defined my vote for ECF on Day 1 as a "waste" because I was the lone vote for ECF on that day and not working with the town (I'll need to go back and confirm this was his thought and not someone else's when not posting from my phone). I moved my vote yesterday to align with the town (Seb, Oling) on ECF, because I was (erroneously, we now know) suspicious of him from Day 1 and his death post with 3 votes against him was super strange. My vote would have been "wasted" by sticking with Timbo, and then that would have also been suspicious?! Sort of feeling like Squiggs is gunning for me, at this point. Everything I do is suspicious in his eyes.

This post makes me think Peanut is town. Specifically because she is bringing attention to the fact that she voted for ECF on day 1. Maybe I am not giving her enough credit because she is new, but I don't think she has the same skill level that some of us would have to deceive people.

I'm not sure a person playing for the first time and as scum would want to bring attention to the fact they voted for a known town person on more than 1 occasion.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

Voted:

activeStick (8): squiggs96, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, Timbo, devo22, Oling_Roachinen, GGG, East Coast Flame
GirlySports (5): Lego Man, Party Elephant, activeStick, mrkajz44, SebC
Party Elephant (1): GirlySports
East Coast Flame (1): Peanut
Hockeyguy15 (1): dissentowner
Lego Man (1): Puxlut

This first vote is interesting.

activeStick and Girly were town, so at no point were any scum in danger of being lynched. Then in you look at the "throw away" votes you have Girly and Puxlut who are both town, leaving Peanut and Diss as the only 2 people not jumping on the leaders.

I'm a little surprised that the hosts didn't take this opportunity to put a couple votes on each other so down the road they could use it to build some town credibility. Peanut voting for ECF doesn't fit that this since ECF was town, and knowing my alignment Diss didn't vote for a host either.

So on the first vote all 3 hosts voted for town, and at best only either Girly or Puxlut having a shot at voting for scum.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

Voted:
GirlySports (9): East Coast Flame, dissentowner, Timbo, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, devo22, Lego Man, squiggs96, Peanut
Timbo (3): GGG, mrkajz44, Oling_Roachinen
Hockeyguy15 (2): Puxlut, Party Elephant
East Coast Flame (1): GirlySports

Now on this vote Girly and ECF are confirmed town, and I know my alignment so that only leaves Timbo as possible scum. So unless Timbo is a host AND 1 or 2 of GGG, Oling and mrkajz are hosts, some/if not all the scum voted for town again even though no host was in danger of being lynched.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

Voted:
East Coast Flame (7): GGG, SebC, Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86, Party Elephant, devo22, Peanut
mrkajz44 (5): Hockeyguy15, squiggs96, Timbo, Lego Man, East Coast Flame
Hockeyguy15 (3): mrkajz44, dissentowner, Puxlut

Finally on vote 3 assuming the same logic before, the only unknown is mrkajz. If mrkajz is a host then that only leaves squiggs, Timbo, and Lego as possible hosts voting for their buddy.

I tend to think this vote would be least likely that scum would vote for scum because of the way it went down. I really do think that mrkajz is a host, so using that logic I would slightly lean towards squiggs, Timbo and Lego being town for now, but then that would mean that the hosts all voted for a townsperson again.

[mrkajz44]

I went back and checked out how the vote went down on Friday, because it was very weird. As I stated before when the votes came to me, I thought it was a scummy type play due to the timing. Squiggs and Timbo both jumped on me pretty quick, which I took to mean they were working together. At that time, it was HG who was the leading vote person, not ECF. Lego then came on to put me in the lead shortly after the Squiggs and Timbo vote.

So when I look back at it, that was the scummy time of day. Once the votes were moved to me, the fear of HG getting lynched sort of went away. At that point, the scum left the fore-front and we just got all paranoid about the shift in votes (myself included). Party ended up going to ECF, followed closely by Devo and Peanut. It's hard to say why, but it looks like the Seb vote for ECF may have been a driving factor as (at that point) Seb was as close to confirmed town as you could get with the Maz post.

In summary, I think there was a scummy move in votes on Friday, but it wasn't the move from me to ECF. There would be no reason for the scum to come out and move the votes from one town to the other, that late in the day. The real move was made to push the vote off HG, and those that participated were Squiggs, Timbo and Lego. It ended up with HG, Squiggs, Timbo, Lego and ECF on me at the end of the day, and I feel like at least two scum are in that vote. I'm still questioning HG (though he seems to be less steering so far today), but Squiggs weird behaviour so far puts him in my top two with HG.

[Hockeyguy15]

So we using my assumptions from above...

activeStick, Girly, ECF - Dead town
Puxlut and Seb - 'Confirmed town'
squiggs, Timbo, Lego - leaning towards town because of the mrkajz vote

That leaves the following...
GGG, Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86, Party Elephant, devo22, mrkajz44, dissentowner, Peanut

Out of those I think GGG, Oling, bizaro and Peanut are possibly town, so that leaves...

PE, Devo, mrkajz, and Diss as my possible scum list at the moment.

[mrkajz44]

HG - you do make some good points about the vote, though the analysis coming from you may not be as great. It's an easy way to form conclusions with incomplete information as there are at least a few of us as shown by each vote, that think you are host.

As for scum voting scum, Day 1 can likely be thrown out really, because two townies were front runners. A scum throwing up a vote for another scum, just to do so, would probably raise more eyebrows than just voting for the two front runners. Your day 2 and 3 analysis is more relevant, but again, I'm not relying on your word that you are town, so I don't really agree with your conclusions.

[GGG]

That's pretty good analysis, I would suggest that it would mean one of two things.

One that the hosts are less experienced and didnt want to risk voting for eachother creating a wagon or they are voting early for the front runners. I need to go back and check vote order as the posted order in the vote counts I don't believe reflects correctly the order of the votes. But I think looking at the first 3 votes for each candidate will reveal something.

If anyone has a vote list they have been keeping could you post it

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

This post makes me think Peanut is town. Specifically because she is bringing attention to the fact that she voted for ECF on day 1. Maybe I am not giving her enough credit because she is new, but I don't think she has the same skill level that some of us would have to deceive people.

I'm not sure a person playing for the first time and as scum would want to bring attention to the fact they voted for a known town person on more than 1 occasion.

I think I've been too hard on Peanut. I think, like the activeStick vote, that I just wanted to be right on picking something out of the air.

unvote

vote mrkajz44

[devo22]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Party ended up going to ECF, followed closely by Devo and Peanut. It's hard to say why, but it looks like the Seb vote for ECF may have been a driving factor

My vote is pretty easy to explain. ECF coming back late and shifting his vote felt like a scummy play to save his life, and in combination with his extremely early death post, his last day looked at least fishy to me. Party and SebC also made good points.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by devo22

My vote is pretty easy to explain. ECF coming back late and shifting his vote felt like a scummy play to save his life, and in combination with his extremely early death post, his last day looked at least fishy to me. Party and SebC also made good points.

Agreed - I'm thinking everyone who moved off me, Party, Peanut, and you, were all town and there was just some confusion at the end of the day. My point is scum was operating early in the day (real day Friday), while the ending moves were just town getting confused due to the quick movement in votes and early "death posts".

[bizaro86]

Some thoughts this morning:

1) Nobody coming forward by now saying they got the spore probably means oling was telling the truth about girlysports, and was probably town to begin with. However, if the captain got the spore back he/she could have sent it to oling again, just like day 1. Thus, neither oling nor SebC should have their "confirmed town" status anymore, either of them could be turned.
1a) I find it interesting that squiggs opened the day with a discussion of confirmed town, and mentions pux and oling but not Seb. Seb was a stronger confirm than oling, imo, as Mazrim basically came in the thread and told us.

2) All the vote switching yesterday was odd. First the vote was run up on dissentowner, then HG, then MrK, then ECF. I suspect dissents long "death post ish" stuff that got him off the hook inspired ECF to try roughtly the same thing. That's too bad, because he did it too soon, which made him look much more suspicious. Obviously hindsight is 20-20.

3) Our vote pattern has been inactive (active stick) middle activity (girly) and middle activity (ECF). Someone suggested (sorry, I forgot who) that they think the scum team will be one very active and two inactive posters. That sort of makes sense to me, and suggests we should focus on the bottom of the activity list or the top. At the top I think HG15 is unlikely, but for the third most posts I don't recall much serious discussion around GGG.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

That's pretty good analysis, I would suggest that it would mean one of two things.

One that the hosts are less experienced and didnt want to risk voting for eachother creating a wagon or they are voting early for the front runners. I need to go back and check vote order as the posted order in the vote counts I don't believe reflects correctly the order of the votes. But I think looking at the first 3 votes for each candidate will reveal something.

If anyone has a vote list they have been keeping could you post it

Here is what I came up with, if the name is green text it was an unvote.

Vote 1:
activeStick (8): squiggs96, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, Timbo, devo22, Oling_Roachinen, GGG, East Coast Flame
GirlySports (5): Lego Man, Devo, Party Elephant, activeStick, mrkajz44, SebC
Party Elephant (1): GGG, GirlySports, mrkajz, GGG,
East Coast Flame (1): Peanut
Hockeyguy15 (1): dissentowner
Lego Man (1): Puxlut
Bizaro (0): GGG
Diss (0): Oling, Timbo
Devo (0): Puxlut
GGG (0): PE
Squiggs (0): HG
Seb (0): ECF, GGG
Timbo (0): Oling
mrkajz (0): GGG

Vote 2:
Hasn't Voted (1): SebC

Voted:
GirlySports (9): Seb, Oling, East Coast Flame, dissentowner, Timbo, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, devo22, Lego Man, squiggs96, Peanut
Timbo (3): Lego, bizaro, GGG, mrkajz44, Oling_Roachinen
Hockeyguy15 (2): Puxlut, Party Elephant
East Coast Flame (1): GirlySports
Peanut (0): Squiggs

Vote 3:
Voted:
East Coast Flame (7): Puxlut, GGG, SebC, Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86, Party Elephant, devo22, Peanut
mrkajz44 (5): ECF, Devo, Hockeyguy15, squiggs96, Timbo, Lego Man, East Coast Flame
Hockeyguy15 (3): Diss, PE, mrkajz44, dissentowner, Puxlut
Seb (0): GGG
Lego (0): Squiggs
Timbo (0): Oling, Diss, Peanut
Diss (0): HG, Timbo, bizaro, GGG
PE (0): Lego
Bizaro (0): ECF