CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

At what point does the agent reveal? At the rate we're going, this game will be over in a few weeks. If they haven't come up with a turned, there's no possible point in revealing. This doesn't really seem to be a very pro town game. I'm a little pissed we're this far behind. Maybe we need to do a quick lynch so the scum doesn't have time to formulate a plan.
Vote:Peanut
Because my daughter picked her. (And maybe being a new player and getting the scum card and not knowing how to play so she keeps her mouth shut and lets the other 2 talk for her)

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by GGG

It's interesting that you jump out and try to put the spore on Oling right away. Is this a host or turned trying to direct the agent somewhere?

Assumptions:

• Oling is telling the truth about receiving the spore
• Oling is telling the truth about passing the spore to Girly
• The Government Agent searched Oling at one point
• Girly held the spore when she was lynched
• Puxlut is the Genetic Anomaly

Here's my thinking on why I'd guess that Oling received the spore:


Based on the above assumptions the captain passed the spore to someone last night. Oling was not turned prior to Day 4. Since many people see Oling and Puxlut as town, they are going to get some more weight on their posts. If I'm the host, there is no chance I waste a day by sending the spore to Pux. I would want to have a chance to turn someone. Since Oling has already been targeted, why not try it again? He's a guy you'd want on your side, whether you are the hosts or not. Since he is getting a lot of town cred., if I was a host I'd try and sneak this one by the town. I wanted to put the theory out there before it had a chance to be hidden.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

At what point does the agent reveal? At the rate we're going, this game will be over in a few weeks. If they haven't come up with a turned, there's no possible point in revealing.

Puxlut, when the Government Agent investigates they kill the player if he/she is turned. There's no point in revealing, at least not yet.

[squiggs96]

Now knowing that mrkajz44 was town, here's a summary on the voting to end Day 3:

At 8:00 am MDT it was:

Voted:
Hockeyguy15 (4): Party Elephant, mrkajz44, dissentowner, Puxlut
East Coast Flame (3): GGG, SebC, Oling_Roachinen
mrkajz44 (2): East Coast Flame, devo22
dissentowner (1): Hockeyguy15
Timbo (1): Peanut
Lego Man (1): squiggs96
Party Elephant (1): Lego Man

Over the next couple of hours the new votes are:

• ECF unvotes mrkajz and puts his vote to bizaro
• HG switches his vote from diss to mrkajz
• bizaro places his vote on ECF
• I switch my vote from Lego
• Timbo votes for mrkajz

At this point there is a three way tie between HG, ECF and mrkajz at 4 votes each.

• Lego switches his vote from me to mrkajz (Side note: this is the 2nd time in this game someone has stopped voting for me, and has voted for the person I'm voting for. The 1st was HG voting activeStick)
• ECF returns to switch his vote back from bizaro to mrkajz

mrkajz now leads 6-4-4-1 with everyone having voted. Lego comments in #1217 the vote seems off. GGG in #1223 says this vote is scum driven based on HG's logic.

• PartyElephant says HG is the most scummy, but moves his vote from HG to ECF in order to save mrkajz

In post #1237 mrkajz gives a brief summary and says the votes moving to him seem so well planned it must be a scum plan. I tried driving the vote towards mrkajz so I know it's not scum driven.

• devo doesn't like ECF coming back to the game, even though he never said he was officially gone, and moves his vote from mrkajz to ECF

ECF now leads 6-5-3-1 in the vote with three hours to go.

• Peanut switches her vote from Timbo to ECF

ECF leads vote 7-5-3 with mrkajz and HG 2nd and 3rd respectively. Timbo states he doesn't like the lynch and Puxlut says she doesn't want to hammer.


I really don't like how mrkajz had a good sized lead and then the vote quickly switched to ECF. Using mrkajz's words, it seems like it was scum driven. Peanut moved from Timbo to essentially lynch ECF. She also was the hammer on Girly. I think it's a very brazen plan to do so, with the reply going to be: "Why would a host be so out there?" There have been enough people playing this game multiple times that you need to do something that equates to a bluff in poker. I don't think this is your idea, but I think it's been discussed in the mafia thread. I've been wanting a vote to go against either Peanut or Lego for a while. I have gotten zero support in my attempts to lynch Lego. That concerns me, so I'm going to see if I can garner support against Peanut.



vote Peanut

[Timbo]

Squiggs your first sentence is wrong. I'm sure you ment ECF not mrkakz44

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Now knowing that mrkajz44 was town

As pointed out by Timbo, my first sentence above was wrong. It should read:

Now knowing that ECF was town ...

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Squiggs your first sentence is wrong. I'm sure you ment ECF not mrkakz44

I'm always worried about stuff like that. There's a very reasonable possibility that it was just a mistake, but I'm always skeptical that was a Freudian slip.

My issue with Squiggs96 so far today is that he seemed to try and suggest where the spore had gone. The Host would, very likely, be sending the spore to either someone who we wouldn't expect to get it or someone that is 'confirmed' town to remove that status. There's always a possibility of mind games, but I'm wary that he was trying to influence the Government Agent's search. Right now (I know) there's a slightly less than a 50/50 chance a Turned even exists, 0 if they gave it to Puxlut. I believe we're better off dealing with whether someone claims to have received the spore tomorrow than focusing too heavy on it today. But when we receive or not receive information about the spore tomorrow that suggests someone did turn, than I would be even more suspicious of Squiggs96 action here.

Then he's also suggesting that the last vote was scum driven. A possibility, for sure. But I don't see scum driving the vote unless they are in trouble. So if he's basing his vote on it being scum driven, I think his suspects would be those in trouble, mrkajz44 and Hockeyguy15...not Peanut and Lego Man.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Then he's also suggesting that the last vote was scum driven. A possibility, for sure. But I don't see scum driving the vote unless they are in trouble. So if he's basing his vote on it being scum driven, I think his suspects would be those in trouble, mrkajz44 and Hockeyguy15...not Peanut and Lego Man.

I saw the same flaw in logic why would the scum move off mrkajz44 or HG15 if they were town to then lynch ECF?

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Puxlut, when the Government Agent investigates they kill the player if he/she is turned. There's no point in revealing, at least not yet.

Oops. I was getting the cop role, mixed up.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I'm always worried about stuff like that. There's a very reasonable possibility that it was just a mistake, but I'm always skeptical that was a Freudian slip.

Of course you would be worried about this . Just remember I was trying to lynch mrkajz to save ECF. The good thing about not being able to edit your posts, is you can't change something that you only wanted a few people to see. The bad thing is when a mistake does happen, the game can analyze this for hundreds of posts on what was a simple error.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I
My issue with Squiggs96 so far today is that he seemed to try and suggest where the spore had gone. The Host would, very likely, be sending the spore to either someone who we wouldn't expect to get it or someone that is 'confirmed' town to remove that status. There's always a possibility of mind games, but I'm wary that he was trying to influence the Government Agent's search. Right now (I know) there's a slightly less than a 50/50 chance a Turned even exists, 0 if they gave it to Puxlut. I believe we're better off dealing with whether someone claims to have received the spore tomorrow than focusing too heavy on it today. But when we receive or not receive information about the spore tomorrow that suggests someone did turn, than I would be even more suspicious of Squiggs96 action here.

You and Puxlut seem to have as much confirmed town status as anybody around here. I stated it in my post, and you confirmed it here. I believe it would be a good idea to send it to a confirmed townie. Since it's a waste to send it to Pux, you are the only other option. I am definitely suggesting you may have received it. I don't know for sure if you did or not. If you did receive it, I don't know whether you have turned or not. I'm not trying to influence only the Agent. I'm trying to discuss with the whole town where it might have gone. If you have a better idea of where it went, I'd listen to it. If you are not wanting to discuss the spore, and you are saying I'm trying to influence the Agent, it leads me to believe that you may have the spore, have been turned and are trying to focus the discussion away from this to save yourself. It's as good of theory as any out there right now.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Then he's also suggesting that the last vote was scum driven. A possibility, for sure. But I don't see scum driving the vote unless they are in trouble. So if he's basing his vote on it being scum driven, I think his suspects would be those in trouble, mrkajz44 and Hockeyguy15...not Peanut and Lego Man.

During Day 3 I thought ECF was town. I stated my reasons for it. mrkajz could be scum for sure, as he was in danger of being voted out. I'm very disappointed that he wasn't lynched. I think we learned a lot from the vote. I still think Lego and Peanut could be a host. There is a very real possibility Lego sided with me just to say that he aligned with me, so how could I think he is scum. He also may have done it just for sharts and giggles. I'd be all for having an mrkajz lynch, but I'm also happy to go after Lego and Peanut. I think they are both hiding things, and I'd like to flush it out.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Timbo

I saw the same flaw in logic why would the scum move off mrkajz44 or HG15 if they were town to then lynch ECF?

If mrkajz44 is also town, then I've wasted a lot of everyone's time with my posts on Friday and today. I've also wasted a lot of my own time thinking about what happened.

I think there is a possibility that HG is scum, but right now I'm leaning host based on this post from him:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

If you recall I have played like this in past games as well, so if you really want to judge me on previous play maybe you should use my play as a base point, not the way someone else played.

It helped me judge ECF as town, so I'm leaning very slightly that HG is on the town side for now.

Maybe if I went the George Costanza route and vote the opposite of what I want...

[Peanut]

Dissentowner was also in voting trouble at one point during Day 3 and the votes all migrated away from him as well. I personally thought his explanation posts were well thought out and logical, so it makes sense to me that he is/was town. But building on Oling's thought about who was in trouble at one point yesterday and then votes moved away, Diss should be in that conversation.

I'm not really sure what to say in response to Squiggs. He's on my case for laying too low, and now he's on my case for being too aggressive with my votes?! I believe he's the poster who defined my vote for ECF on Day 1 as a "waste" because I was the lone vote for ECF on that day and not working with the town (I'll need to go back and confirm this was his thought and not someone else's when not posting from my phone). I moved my vote yesterday to align with the town (Seb, Oling) on ECF, because I was (erroneously, we now know) suspicious of him from Day 1 and his death post with 3 votes against him was super strange. My vote would have been "wasted" by sticking with Timbo, and then that would have also been suspicious?! Sort of feeling like Squiggs is gunning for me, at this point. Everything I do is suspicious in his eyes.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

If you are not wanting to discuss the spore

There's nothing to discuss about the spore though. Either someone turned, and they aren't going to tell us or they didn't, and they don't even know they have the spore.

Tomorrow someone will either reveal they had the spore and sent it on it's merry way, and we will have to discuss if we trust them. Or no one will reveal and then we know that there is a turned.

Getting trapped in a discussion about the spore when we don't have any information is pointless, especially when we know we will find out more information tomorrow. Although I don't even agree with your logic as to why they would send it to me nor do I agree with your logic that if the vote was scum-driven that the suspects wouldn't be people who weren't in trouble.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I think there is a possibility that HG is scum, but right now I'm leaning host based on this post from him:

You mean town?

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

You mean town?

Arrrghhh. You'd think as I was correcting one typo I'd not make another one right after.

Yes, I am leaning towards HG being town.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Crazy, tinfoil hat, conspiracy theory time!

Oling's a host. Puxlut received the spore on day 0 and is now infected. Her end game has changed, so now she needs to recruit as many others to the infected side to achieve victory. By asking for the spore back, she is able to control where it goes. Oling wins when they and the turned account for 50% or more of the total living players, so he is happy when this happens. He knows she is turned because the hosts know of all turned players at all time. The hosts cannot be turned by receiving it, so he isn't afraid of having it sent to him. Since the town needs to kill/lynch the captain, second in command and the engineer to win, diverting the attention to the spore is a good plan. We, as townies, don't need to kill any of the turned; we just need to ensure they and the hosts don't account for at least half of the players.

Squiggs96, yesterday you suggested a scenario in that I was host. I don't blame you if you are town as there's no way you could know I was telling the truth. What I am concerned about is how you've taken a 180 stance and have called me confirmed town a couple times today, while explicitly not mentioning SebC.

Based on my actions:

• being around and happily lynching our smuggler despite picking up on his reveal;
• sending the spore to GirlySports and being the main cause for her getting lynched and ultimately revealing passenger, despite jumping off the lynch last second; and
• now being a main proponent for lynching East Coast Flame, yet another passenger.

Heck, if I didn't save Mazrim's pm telling me I was a passenger, I might not believe it. And yet you, who has been skeptical of me, is now calling me a confirmed townie (spore notwithstanding)?

And you're doing it in a way that draws attention to the spore, something you said would be a good scum plan.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Squiggs96, yesterday you suggested a scenario in that I was host. I don't blame you if you are town as there's no way you could know I was telling the truth. What I am concerned about is how you've taken a 180 stance and have called me confirmed town a couple times today, while explicitly not mentioning SebC.

Based on my actions:

• being around and happily lynching our smuggler despite picking up on his reveal;
• sending the spore to GirlySports and being the main cause for her getting lynched and ultimately revealing passenger, despite jumping off the lynch last second; and
• now being a main proponent for lynching East Coast Flame, yet another passenger.

Heck, if I didn't save Mazrim's pm telling me I was a passenger, I might not believe it. And yet you, who has been skeptical of me, is now calling me a confirmed townie (spore notwithstanding)?

And you're doing it in a way that draws attention to the spore, something you said would be a good scum plan.

I never said you were a confirmed townie. I said many people here thought you were. I definitely have my doubts. Because Girly was lynched we won't know if you were telling the truth until the end of the game. My assumptions on my post today might not be correct. I hope they are. I'm not sure I will fully believe your role until I am lynched (I can join the death quick topic thread), you are lynched (card flip) or the game ends (all is revealed at once).

What I don't get is why when I suggested the tinfoil conspiracy you wanted a full stop on it. Now that I am giving a scenario where you'd be town, you are trying to give evidence where you aren't town. Any reason for this?

I also have my doubts on Seb but, like GGG pointed out, he's playing similar to me last game where I was just an annoying townie. He's not in my top 3 list of scum. Right now mine are, in no particular order, Peanut, Lego & mrk. I might put bizarro there as well given ECF's death post.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

What I don't get is why when I suggested the tinfoil conspiracy you wanted a full stop on it.

I wanted a full stop on the discussion Puxlut was Host without a counterclaim. I pointed out several times, either hinted at or straight out said, that the Genetic Anomaly needed to reveal if they weren't Puxlut. I provided many reasons why it would be a good idea including a sure-fire host kill.

They didn't, so we're left assuming that Puxlut was telling the truth. Murking the waters about our one 'confirmed' town with no reason was the reason I was happy continuing my push on East Coast Flame. It's the Host that would want to discredit Puxlut, or people not following along.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

At what point does the agent reveal? At the rate we're going, this game will be over in a few weeks. If they haven't come up with a turned, there's no possible point in revealing. This doesn't really seem to be a very pro town game. I'm a little pissed we're this far behind. Maybe we need to do a quick lynch so the scum doesn't have time to formulate a plan.
Vote:Peanut
Because my daughter picked her. (And maybe being a new player and getting the scum card and not knowing how to play so she keeps her mouth shut and lets the other 2 talk for her)

I don't know how you can be mad how far behind we are and then say you're voting someone because your daughter picked them. We need to stop being lazy, go back and get our hands dirty and try and connect the dots.