CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[devo22]

At this point I'd be somewhat comfortable with any of the top 3 vote getters, they are 3 of my top 4 scum suspects (with Lego Man being the 4th). Could switch my vote to either HG or ECF if needed to guarantee a lynch.

Of the 4, the one I'm still cautious about is HG. We are either cutting of the snake's head here or we're getting rid of a top scum hunter. My opinion of HG almost changes with every post he's making.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

EDIT: Oh, hi squiggs!

Editing your posts. That's a paddling.

[Hockeyguy15]

I'm out of here at 11, so if you're going to vote for me I would do it soon so I know when I should be doing a death post.

[East Coast Flame]

I’m not going to be around much today, so consider this my death post.

I’ve had a bad feeling about the 3 people that have been anointed “confirmed town”: Puxlut, Oling and Seb. The ONLY people who are confirmed town at this point in the game are Active and Girly.

You guys have put so much faith in them that you have essentially lynched me without any ability to defend myself. Just because Seb and Oling have some “bad feelings”. That is absurd. And as will see with my death, all that listening to these people will get you is another town death.

I am also extremely wary of Bizarro who seems to be the biggest slurper of these “confirmed townies” and is constantly pumping their tires and reminding us that they are super duper 100% confirmed town.

I guarantee that at least one of the three is scum, and Bizarro is highly likely.

Stop letting Seb off the hook with not explaining anything. That is a total cop out. Putting blind faith in him when he hasn’t done anything to earn it is ridiculous. But he is getting away with it for god knows why – especially with his number 1 fan Bizarro in his corner.

As for my other scum thoughts – Mrkajz has been at the top of my list for a while. I don’t like how Peanut is flying under the radar. Lego I could go 50/50 on.

My townie thoughts – I generally trust Squiggs the most. Pretty sure HG and Dissent are town, and I wish they would lay off each other and work together. Devo I think is probably town.

Not going to vote HG as I think he is town and he will probably be more helpful to the town down the road than I will be.

Reading back, I think Bizarro has really gotten on my radar today. It really seems he has been hiding behind the shield of the three “confirmed townies” and just trying to follow along with them. So let my final vote stand as this:
Unvote
Vote: bizaro86
Good luck friends! Hopefully I’ll see you on the other side!

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I'm out of here at 11, so if you're going to vote for me I would do it soon so I know when I should be doing a death post.

I am not voting for you as I really think you are town. Now if you do get lynched and you flip scum, my support of you will be very suspect. However I'm willing to take that risk.

A couple of people have mentioned Bizaro86 which I find very interesting.
Why? Well he was the one who made the case on activeStick and lead the charge. Look at posts #288 to #296.
Now its not so bad that he lead the charge what is interesting is how after the conversations in that period were directed to prodding and turning up the heat
or as I put it running someone up the flag pole to incite more posts and get meaningful dialogue. Bizaro86 makes a very interesting post after activeSticks flip. This is his first post after the flip and it is quite a bit after activeSticks flip.

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Just to address this (and I think I've been one of the more active posters, to be honest). My last post was 352. I was out last night (and I didn't think the game started until 10 anyway), and am posting when I get to a computer in the morning. You can expect to see me posting with the same frequency today as I have the rest of the game.

He begins by trying to reestablish himself as town. (suspicious)

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I also think Timbo is a reasonable guess at scum, and that might be a good call. I feel that his playing style has changed dramatically from the previous game, which I feel is a pretty big tell. I posted this earlier:

Timbo has been the least consistent from the previous game. His posting style was previously aggressive and tenacious (that's how he got daykilled by the vig). Now its been more of a follower, and fairly passive about it as well, especially on the ActiveStick vote. It seems scummy to me to pile on a vote to get momentum after a few people have voted with actual reasons.

I'm not ready to vote yet, as I want to re-read the oling/girly stuff and evaluate that as well.

Okay the underlined and italic part is important here because take into context the conversation going on on posts #288-296 and bear in mind I was only the 4th voter.

So he does not say anything about his involvement in activeStick lynch and tosses me under the bus. Yet I thanked him for his post on (post 290) activeStick and agreed with his premise. He then thanks me for thanking him (post 292) He later says I piled on ?

First thing I thought was he is scum!
Then I thought no... he is chicken and scared.
But the more I see his voting pattern the more I wonder He incites a lynch that takes hold and is successful. He then tosses one of the voters under the bus to incite another lynch.

It's not much I know however it has been bugging me for a bit.

[Hockeyguy15]

I'm a little surprised with the lack of activity here. I'm thinking if we had scum in the crosshairs there would be a little more push to get votes off people.

Since the Diss ship has set sail I'm switching my vote to someone else I think is a host. You've all seen my posts about him, but I'll give you the run down anyway.

Unvote
Vote: mrkajz44

He recycles ideas from other posters to vote for me, he says I am a driving force behind the activeStick lynch, he also uses hypothetical scum scenarios as a reason to vote for me. He does just enough to stay out of the spotlight posting wise, but isn't hunting much.

Oh and I believe he tried to get the heat off Diss when the votes were going his way, and now that the heat is off he hasn't said much.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I'm a little surprised with the lack of activity here. I'm thinking if we had scum in the crosshairs there would be a little more push to get votes off people.

I agree with this sentiment.

Since no one has wanted to join me pillage of voting out Lego, I'm willing to switch my vote. I won't vote HG or diss today. I've stated it before, but I think it's good for them to continue their fight on Day 4.

[Mazrim]

GirlySports will now be assisting me with posting updated vote counts for this game. Thanks for the help!

[Hockeyguy15]

Just about to head out camping so I guess my final comment will be this.

Puxlut and Seb, you're only confirmed town for so long. Puxlut instead of sitting back and waiting for people to bring you theories to vote on you should be the one bringing arguments against people. If you bring the theories we know there is no motive other than you think they could be scum. Gut feelings are not a good sole reason for voting for someone, it's just an excuse for playing lazy. Go back and do some digging and don't be afraid of being wrong, you won't always be right.

Seb it's hard to get behind you when you give me nothing, I understand you want to keep your cards close to you chest but if you give me an idea i can go back and do my own digging. Maybe I am just missing that little bit on someone to get the ball rolling and your little tid bit could be the catalyst.

If you lynch me tonight good luck the rest of the way, I hope I've done enough to help out in the coming days.

If you don't vote me out I'll see you sometime Sunday.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

I’m not going to be around much today, so consider this my death post.

I’ve had a bad feeling about the 3 people that have been anointed “confirmed town”: Puxlut, Oling and Seb. The ONLY people who are confirmed town at this point in the game are Active and Girly.

You guys have put so much faith in them that you have essentially lynched me without any ability to defend myself. Just because Seb and Oling have some “bad feelings”. That is absurd. And as will see with my death, all that listening to these people will get you is another town death.

I am also extremely wary of Bizarro who seems to be the biggest slurper of these “confirmed townies” and is constantly pumping their tires and reminding us that they are super duper 100% confirmed town.

I guarantee that at least one of the three is scum, and Bizarro is highly likely.

Stop letting Seb off the hook with not explaining anything. That is a total cop out. Putting blind faith in him when he hasn’t done anything to earn it is ridiculous. But he is getting away with it for god knows why – especially with his number 1 fan Bizarro in his corner.

As for my other scum thoughts – Mrkajz has been at the top of my list for a while. I don’t like how Peanut is flying under the radar. Lego I could go 50/50 on.

My townie thoughts – I generally trust Squiggs the most. Pretty sure HG and Dissent are town, and I wish they would lay off each other and work together. Devo I think is probably town.

Not going to vote HG as I think he is town and he will probably be more helpful to the town down the road than I will be.

So I feel like I need to respond to this. Saying I'm the biggest fan and "slurper" (whatever that means) of three confirmed town is a false representation of my position. Puxlut is confirmed town by her genetic anomaly reveal and lack of counter reveal. Nobody has really made a counter argument to this idea. I was a strong supporter of Seb as a townie prior, as I thought his posting style made him town. I took flack for that, and like to think I potentially diverted votes off him at that time. He is also essentially confirmed town by Mazrim, at least for now. Voting with and listening to the confirmed townies is good gameplay.

The biggest advantage the scum have in this game is their ability to communicate outside the thread and that they know who each other are. If I can identify a few other townies to vote with, I'm getting information I know I can trust the source of. That starts to counter the information advantage the scum have, and gives them less places to hide. I won't apologize for that strategy, as I think its sound.

All that being said, I don't see Oling as a confirmed townie. While I have him in my "likely town" pile, I wouldn't be willing to follow his ideas in the same way. I think pux and seb have pure motives, which makes me more willing to trust their ideas are sincere, even if they're not always going to be correct.

As for trusting Seb without hearing his ideas, he could certainly post more and I think that would be helpful, but just because his style is a bit odd doesn't make him scum. Honestly, if he changed his style at this point I'd be more likely to think he was turned by the spore.

[bizaro86]

In response to Timbo's post, I was pushing for an Activestick lynch, which I did with a detailed post of my reasoning and analysis of his posts. When I went back later I thought something seemed off about your vote. Not a big thing, but it tipped you towards the scum side for me. There is little to go on for the first couple days, so little things matter.

The thing I find most interesting here is when hockeyguy was getting voted for, the defence tended to be about hockeyguy. When a vote got started for ECF, the defence wasn't anything about ECF, it was "let me pick someone associated with the people voting for me." That's how I would expect a scum to react, it's not a straight revenge vote, which always gets discounted, but its a solid attempt to distract and move attention to someone else, me in this case.

Then, in the very next post Timbo comes in with an agreement and add a few details. With just enough time in between to seem reasonable. I'm suspicious they cooked that up in the scum thread to try and rescue ECF.

I'm going to be voting ECF for the following reasons:
1) The suspicious shift and confirm shift from ECF/Timbo
2) I'm in and out, and am one of the last people to vote, so I need to vote somewhere. ECF is the most likely to be scum out of the leading vote getters. I know I'm not, and hockeyguy is a bit all over the place, but seems genuine to me. I think we need to get a lynch in, and ECF is the most likely scum of the people who we could get to 5 votes on by tonight.
3) The Seb/pux factor. Their motives are genuine, even if Seb won't explain his reasoning. If we could randomly vote without scum interference the town would almost certainly win, so a choice by a known townie is a reasonable way to go.

Vote: East Coast Flame

I get that this seems like a revenge vote, but I'm thinking ECF knew I was likely to vote for him (he says as much) and was hoping to make my vote look like a revenge vote by voting for me first.

[GirlySports]

MUHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! I'm back on this wretched ship. I've been hired on to operate the big scoreboard in left field.


Vote Count

With 15 alive, it takes 8 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 5 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn't Voted (1): Timbo

Voted:
Hockeyguy15 (4): Party Elephant, mrkajz44, dissentowner, Puxlut
East Coast Flame (4): GGG, SebC, Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86
mrkajz44 (2): devo22, Hockeyguy15
Timbo (1): Peanut
Lego Man (1): squiggs96
Party Elephant (1): Lego Man
bizaro86 (1): East Coast Flame

The deadline is Friday, June 5th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

[squiggs96]

I am going to stick up for ECF. I just went back and read every post of his in Smash. He's posting the exact same way he did there. He even had Girly and Oling picked as scum and formulate picked as suspicious, but couldn't get the votes going. He stuck up for me there and was quick to stick up for me here. He had some good theories in Smash and I think he might have some here too. I agree with much of his death post, and don't see how it helps the hosts if he flips host. He has named me as the person he trusts most as town. If he flips host then I can see everyone going after me because of this. I also agree with almost all of his death post, so I'm putting myself out there should he flip host. All that said, I believe he's town.

If anyone wants to vote Lego or Peanut I'd prefer to lynch one of those two.

I am not ready to go with his bizarro route, but I will vote to stop the ECF lynch.

unvote

vote mrkajz44

[dissentowner]

I am doing some revisiting of posts right now. I will post more in a bit.

[Timbo]

I'm posted my Bizaro86 post as more food for thought. I do remember last game when I was accused of collaborating in a scum forum because I came up with a similar accusation the same time as another player. Lame and wrong then, lame and wrong now.
From what I have read of ECF posts I have no red flags. He seems very innocuous
Since dissentowner has lead me to believe he might be town, I will vote for my next main suspect.
Vote: mrkajz44

[dissentowner]

Ok, so I have looked at some of ECF's posts, I am not convinced he is scum. I am not sure he is town either but at this point I am not changing my vote to him given what I have read on here. I really have a hard time trusting HG15 at this point and I have stated my reasons.
If I am wrong and he is town then by voting him out we lose a pretty big asset. However, if I am right and he is a host we will eliminate perhaps the biggest threat on the scum side. I am waivering here a bit, I'll admit. It is a tough lynch. Convince me HG15 is town if you believe he is.

[dissentowner]

Do we have a 3 way tie with 4 votes right now?

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Do we have a 3 way tie with 4 votes right now?

Yes. HG, ECF and mrk are all at 4. I suggest Peanut, Lego and ECF all move their votes to one of the remaining three. I'm not sure if ECF is going to check in before the deadline, so his vote might stay on bizaro. If Peanut or Lego vote one of the top three it at least gives us a deadline lynch.

[mrkajz44]

Checking in here at lunch time and I see a big swing in the vote to me suddenly. In the last 15 posts or so I got votes from three people: HG, Squiggs, and Timbo. I'm not surprised HG was leading the way again as he is tending to do:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I'm a little surprised with the lack of activity here. I'm thinking if we had scum in the crosshairs there would be a little more push to get votes off people.

Since the Diss ship has set sail I'm switching my vote to someone else I think is a host. You've all seen my posts about him, but I'll give you the run down anyway.

Unvote
Vote: mrkajz44

He recycles ideas from other posters to vote for me, he says I am a driving force behind the activeStick lynch, he also uses hypothetical scum scenarios as a reason to vote for me. He does just enough to stay out of the spotlight posting wise, but isn't hunting much.

Oh and I believe he tried to get the heat off Diss when the votes were going his way, and now that the heat is off he hasn't said much.

Seems more like a worried vote to me - he doesn't like my reasoning for voting against him. That is his reasoning for voting against me; not a very strong reason at all. (Okay, I'll stop saying reason now). Seems like he just want me to disappear. I am clear in why I think HG is scum, and this furthers my point. He seems to pick on specific people at specific times, but not others. This is just him continuing his agenda against only certain people.

As for the whole Diss thing, I'm really not sure where its coming from. I said early I didn't think Diss was scum and nothing major has changed my opinion. I've actually been pretty quiet on my thoughts as Diss as he's never been too high on my radar. I think this "link" was just planted about 8 pages ago and for some reason its before "fact" now.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I am going to stick up for ECF. I just went back and read every post of his in Smash. He's posting the exact same way he did there. He even had Girly and Oling picked as scum and formulate picked as suspicious, but couldn't get the votes going. He stuck up for me there and was quick to stick up for me here. He had some good theories in Smash and I think he might have some here too. I agree with much of his death post, and don't see how it helps the hosts if he flips host. He has named me as the person he trusts most as town. If he flips host then I can see everyone going after me because of this. I also agree with almost all of his death post, so I'm putting myself out there should he flip host. All that said, I believe he's town.

If anyone wants to vote Lego or Peanut I'd prefer to lynch one of those two.

I am not ready to go with his bizarro route, but I will vote to stop the ECF lynch.

unvote

vote mrkajz44

Here's squiggs vote. Talks about ECF, then Lego and Peanut, mentions bizarro and then right at the end votes for me. Seems like a good way of saying a lot but not actually writing why he voted for me.

Originally Posted by Timbo

I'm posted my Bizaro86 post as more food for thought. I do remember last game when I was accused of collaborating in a scum forum because I came up with a similar accusation the same time as another player. Lame and wrong then, lame and wrong now.
From what I have read of ECF posts I have no red flags. He seems very innocuous
Since dissentowner has lead me to believe he might be town, I will vote for my next main suspect.
Vote: mrkajz44

Timbo knows I haven't been a big fan of him from the beginning, and again he jumps in as a middle vote, which I think is a huge scum tell. He talks about bizarro, ECF, and then Diss, but (like Squiggs) just votes for me at the end.

I don't know quite what is going on here, but I can't help feel like two of these three are scum (personally feel Timbo and HG), and they decided they needed another front runner to challenge HG at the top of the voting. The sudden votes just don't make sense otherwise.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Do we have a 3 way tie with 4 votes right now?

Yes but Only if we can trust Girlysports post.