CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

So tangential but what's the downside to having the Genetic Anomaly reveal? Just the host not accidentally sending him the spore?

If the host accidentally sends the spore to the Genetic Anomaly, we wouldn't even know until the night when he finds out he has the spore and becomes a normal passenger. All that does is buy us 1 night of a free-pass that we only realize after the fact. The Genetic Anomaly would reveal he got the spore and sent it on it's way, and assuming no counter-claim, we could trust him for that day but only that day as now he can turn any night like the rest of us.

But if the Genetic Anomaly was to reveal now, we know the only counterclaim would be Host, or a pretty terrible claim by GirlySports, and we could confirm town him until he/she gets the spore, which could almost force the issue. No worry about accidental lynching, no worries about counter-claim as we get more Turned willing to sacrifice, and a confirmed townie until he gets the spore. I mean it's possible that it makes the Genetic Anomaly a spore-target for the Scum, but isn't that sort of what we want?

Ok I think I am sufficiently awake now.

The biggest downside is obviously 1 less place for the agent to hide. The second would be a turned passenger also making the claim just so we spend a day trying to figure out which one of the two people is telling the truth. Turned players are like pawns for the hosts, they can tell them to do whatever they want.

Aside from that I can't think of anything else. I would rather we used the anomaly's power to ourselves to get an extra day of no turned passengers.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

People saying stopping the spore is benefit are wrong as long as the government agent is still alive. The most it allows is extra discussion it does not improve our winning probibility. The game states end up in identical places.

I know I sound like a broken record but the town is suffering from a big logic fail.

Vote for girly if you like oling and HG believe it is more likely she is a host then if she is unturned. That's what you make the decision around. Quit with the stop the spore bull####.

I think you're ignoring the fact that the more turned players there are means the more pull on the votes the hosts have. Currently this is not an issue because there is 1 infected, but as time goes on this can change.

So I disagree with you in that both scenarios end up in the same end place.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Ok I think I am sufficiently awake now.

The biggest downside is obviously 1 less place for the agent to hide. The second would be a turned passenger also making the claim just so we spend a day trying to figure out which one of the two people is telling the truth. Turned players are like pawns for the hosts, they can tell them to do whatever they want.

Aside from that I can't think of anything else. I would rather we used the anomaly's power to ourselves to get an extra day of no turned passengers.

A turned passenger taking credit would be just as good as the spore would go to them anyway meaning no converts. The anomaly should just stay silent at that point and counterclaim the next day and let the agent scan them. If a host does it we lynch them both and a 1 to 1 trade.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by GGG

People saying stopping the spore is benefit are wrong as long as the government agent is still alive. The most it allows is extra discussion it does not improve our winning probibility. The game states end up in identical places.

I know I sound like a broken record but the town is suffering from a big logic fail.

Vote for girly if you like oling and HG believe it is more likely she is a host then if she is unturned. That's what you make the decision around. Quit with the stop the spore bull####.

So your plan would be let the spore run freely and let the G-man investigate as they may?
And us as passengers hunt and play as if there is no spore?

I'm trying to see your side.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

A turned passenger taking credit would be just as good as the spore would go to them anyway meaning no converts. The anomaly should just stay silent at that point and counterclaim the next day and let the agent scan them. If a host does it we lynch them both and a 1 to 1 trade.

Well it wouldn't be just as good because the spore is in the hands of the hosts rather than in our hands.

A host wouldn't be dumb enough to make the claim, which is why I said they would make an infected do it.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

People saying stopping the spore is benefit are wrong as long as the government agent is still alive.

Not if the person doesn't die though GGG, something you glimpse over a bit. Then we're left with having to decide if it was because it was an unsuccessful turn or if they are scum. If we lynch and it's town, we shoot ourselves in the foot. If we don't lynch and it's scum, it's even worse. There is a benefit in stopping the spore.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

The second would be a turned passenger also making the claim just so we spend a day trying to figure out which one of the two people is telling the truth. Turned players are like pawns for the hosts, they can tell them to do whatever they want.

This is why I think today is a good time. Turned will be like cannon-fodder for the Scum down the road. Right now, at least I know, that there's only one possible Turned and that's GirlySports. So if there's multiple reveals we're outing Host and not Turned. If GirlySports claims it we just laugh.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I think you're ignoring the fact that the more turned players there are means the more pull on the votes the hosts have. Currently this is not an issue because there is 1 infected, but as time goes on this can change.

So I disagree with you in that both scenarios end up in the same end place.

Where does the extra turned player come from?

Day 2 lynch girly
Night 2 nothing
Day 3 3/15 chance of lynch
Day 4 14 alive unknown spore location

Or

Day 2 lynch other 3/15 chance
Night 2 agent kills girly
Day 3 14 alive unkonwn spore location

Both end up in the identical game states as the day it is doesn't matter only lynches vs spore transfers

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Not if the person doesn't die though GGG, something you glimpse over a bit. Then we're left with having to decide if it was because it was an unsuccessful turn or if they are scum. If we lynch and it's town, we shoot ourselves in the foot. If we don't lynch and it's scum, it's even worse. There is a benefit in stopping the spore.


This is why I think today is a good time. Turned will be like cannon-fodder for the Scum down the road. Right now, at least I know, that there's only one possible Turned and that's GirlySports. So if there's multiple reveals we're outing Host and not Turned. If GirlySports claims it we just laugh.

That risk is countered by the possibility of girly being unturned. I'm not trying to gloss over it. It's what I'm trying to make the decision about.

Is it more likely she is host or agent OR unturned

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

Where does the extra turned player come from?

Day 2 lynch girly
Night 2 nothing
Day 3 3/15 chance of lynch
Day 4 14 alive unknown spore location

Or

Day 2 lynch other 3/15 chance
Night 2 agent kills girly
Day 3 14 alive unkonwn spore location

Both end up in the identical game states as the day it is doesn't matter only lynches vs spore transfers

After 1 day they are the same states, but down the road they are not because there is 1 extra day of the spore being active.

scenario 1 on day 3 there is no spore.

scenario 2 on day 3 there could be an infected.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

Where does the extra turned player come from?

Day 2 lynch girly
Night 2 nothing
Day 3 3/15 chance of lynch
Day 4 14 alive unknown spore location

Or

Day 2 lynch other 3/15 chance
Night 2 agent kills girly
Day 3 14 alive unkonwn spore location

Both end up in the identical game states as the day it is doesn't matter only lynches vs spore transfers

We're not just talking today though. Down the road, the first time the spore is successful the spore-target is a mystery, if no reveal we got hidden Turneds.

[East Coast Flame]

GGG you're completely ignoring the possibility that Girly is a host?

Worst case scenario: Girly isn't killed by the government agent and we have no idea where the spore is

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by GGG

Where does the extra turned player come from?

Day 2 lynch girly
Night 2 nothing (NO not nothing because the GMan has an investigative shot)
Day 3 3/15 chance of lynch
Day 4 14 alive unknown spore location

Or

Day 2 lynch other 3/15 chance
Night 2 agent kills girly
Day 3 14 alive unkonwn spore location

Both end up in the identical game states as the day it is doesn't matter only lynches vs spore transfers

They are not identical

[bizaro86]

I think the genetic anomaly revealing is nearly as good as killing the spore holder, it essentially gives us another day without a turned player tilting the playing field. I think it makes sense early, because the scum can start using the turned to swing the vote, which would allow them to take over the game fairly quickly. I think tomorrow the deadline lynch will be down to 5 people, and we could be up to 3 scum and 2 turned by then, which could get the game out of control quickly.

One pro of the genetic anomaly revealing but not sending them the spore right away is that if we lose the spore a townie who gets it and doesn't turn has someone to send it. That could be important if we we don't have a pre-plan for where to send it because we don't know who is getting the spore, which is likely, imo, if someone turns.

Of course, if we kill girly we could get a free no-spore night now, and get another one later using the genetica anomally. I think it's unlikely the scum would send it to the genetic anomally because it reduces their chances of getting a turned, and they don't have a night-kill.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

Where does the extra turned player come from?

Day 2 lynch girly
Night 2 nothing
Day 3 3/15 chance of lynch
Day 4 14 alive unknown spore location

Or

Day 2 lynch other 3/15 chance
Night 2 agent kills girly
Day 3 14 alive unkonwn spore location

Both end up in the identical game states as the day it is doesn't matter only lynches vs spore transfers

Actually there is a difference. As stated, if girly is a host she is dead in scenario 1 and alive in scenario two. That seems like a pretty material advantage to scenario 1 actually.

I still think Timbo is the most likely host, but seeing the logic like this suggests that killing girly now is the best town play, and we can wait and kill Timbo tomorrow, or someone else if we get more information through the vote.

unvote

vote:girlysports

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

After 1 day they are the same states, but down the road they are not because there is 1 extra day of the spore being active.

scenario 1 on day 3 there is no spore.

scenario 2 on day 3 there could be an infected.

On day 3 in scnario 1 you haven't had an opportuity to lynch yet. So the game state isn't the same. The game is spore conversions vs lynches. We want more lynches than conversions.

The actual name of day doesn't matter.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Actually there is a difference. As stated, if girly is a host she is dead in scenario 1 and alive in scenario two. That seems like a pretty material advantage to scenario 1 actually.

I still think Timbo is the most likely host, but seeing the logic like this suggests that killing girly now is the best town play, and we can wait and kill Timbo tomorrow, or someone else if we get more information through the vote.

unvote

vote:girlysports

And if girly isn't turned she is dead in scenario one and alive in scenario two. So vote which outcome you feel is more probable not for the red herring of stopping the spore.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

GGG you're completely ignoring the possibility that Girly is a host?

Worst case scenario: Girly isn't killed by the government agent and we have no idea where the spore is

No,

If you read post after post I am saying

if you believe it is more probable that girly is host then that she is unturned vote out girly. If you believe she is more likely unturned lynch someone else

taking the spore out of play is meaningless and a red hearing

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by GGG

No,

If you read post after post I am saying

if you believe it is more probable that girly is host then that she is unturned vote out girly. If you believe she is more likely unturned lynch someone else

taking the spore out of play is meaningless and a red hearing

I think I get what you are saying and why. After reviewing the victory conditions,

The Host wins when they and the Turned account for 50% or more of the total living players in the game.
The Passengers win when the Captain, Second in Command and Engineer have been killed.

So you believe that by us chasing the spore we are not properly going directly toward the victory condition which is not to achieve a majority in passenger numbers(the red herring you speak of) but to kill the Capt. ,2IC and engineer.

I agree we should concentrate on the end goal of Killing the 3 hosts. But shouldn't we mitigate the chances of their victory conditions as well?

Am I reading you right here?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Timbo

I think I get what you are saying and why. After reviewing the victory conditions,

The Host wins when they and the Turned account for 50% or more of the total living players in the game.
The Passengers win when the Captain, Second in Command and Engineer have been killed.

So you believe that by us chasing the spore we are not properly going directly toward the victory condition which is not to achieve a majority in passenger numbers(the red herring you speak of) but to kill the Capt. ,2IC and engineer.

I agree we should concentrate on the end goal of Killing the 3 hosts. But shouldn't we mitigate the chances of their victory conditions as well?

Am I reading you right here?

No,

Presume girly is 100% turned and the agent is alive. Then there is no difference between lynching and letting the agent take care of it.

In one game it will be day 3 and one game it will be day 4. This does not matter as at the end of both days we will have made 1 lynch attempt on the hosts, killed 1 turned, and have lost the spore.

So this means to evaluate whether to lynch girly you need to only look at the cases where girly hasn't been turned. Oling host, girly host, girly unturned with spore decide which is most probable and lynch accordingly.

[Hockeyguy15]

Day 2 - lynch Girly, 15 people left.
Night 2 - Investigate Oling to be safe
Day 3 - 3/15 shot at getting scum, 0 confirmed and 0 possible infected, 14 Left
Night 3 - Spore is passed, likely no one to investigate
Day 4 - either 3/14 or 2/14 for hosts, 0 confirmed and 1 possible infected 13 left
Night 4 - Spore is passed, likely no one to investigate

Day 2 - lynch Someone else, 15 people left.
Night 2 - Investigate and kill Girly, spore is passed regardless, 14 left
Day 3 - 3/14 or 2/14 shot at getting scum, 0 confirmed and 1 possible infected, 13 Left
Night 3 - Spore is passed, investigate Oling to be safe
Day 4 - either 3/13, 2/13 or 1/13 for hosts, 0 confirmed and 2 possible infected, 12 left
Night 4 - Spore is passed, likely no one to investigate

So in your way we have sped up the game. If you don't hit a host with the next couple lynches and you don't get a night off from the spore soon they will have enough people for a deadline lynch.