CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

No you wouldn't. The captain gets to messages at night, that's it. Maybe you should re-read the first post before you try and make up a defence.

ah, anyways I'm still saying I'll send the spore where the town wants.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

ah, anyways I'm still saying I'll send the spore where the town wants.

And I'm still saying I don't believe you because you are turned and will send it where you want.

[mrkajz44]

I've read through the back and forth and I see the two main arguments as follows. This assumes Oling is telling the truth that he is not turned and did pass the spore to Girly:

1) Lynch Girly - she might be turned (some people believe this more than others). The spore stops for one day and day 3 is spent looking to lynch scum as there is no spore. Day three would start with zero turned and either 2 or 3 hosts, depending on if Girly is scum

2) Lynch Other - Gov't agent investigates Girly and kills if turned. The spore does not stop and becomes lost for at least a day. Day 3 is spent looking to lynch scum as spore location is unknown. Day three would start with potentially one turned (from the passed spore) and either 2 or 3 hosts, depending on the lynch

Both sides of the argument have good merit. Stopping the spore for a day is obviously good, but then the hosts have it back and get to choose where it goes. Letting the agent take care of Girly while someone else is lynched is likely more effective, if you think Girly did in fact turn when given the spore.

To be honest, I'm torn between the two strategies. I guess it also depends on how strong you feel about "other" in scenario two. If you don't have a good feeling on who other might be, then Girly is the obvious choice to lynch. Based on voting for now, I suppose "other" is Timbo at this point. As I pointed out at the start of the day, I didn't like Timbo's vote reason or timing on Active, so I might be leaning that way for now and just let the agent investigate Girly, and kill if turned.

This doesn't really factor in Girly's plea to the town to let us decide were the spore goes, so long as she is not lynched. Which is another important factor to consider.

I'll have to mull this over a bit more and re-read the spore reveal part to try and get a better read on the discussion.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I've read through the back and forth and I see the two main arguments as follows. This assumes Oling is telling the truth that he is not turned and did pass the spore to Girly:

1) Lynch Girly - she might be turned (some people believe this more than others). The spore stops for one day and day 3 is spent looking to lynch scum as there is no spore. Day three would start with zero turned and either 2 or 3 hosts, depending on if Girly is scum

2) Lynch Other - Gov't agent investigates Girly and kills if turned. The spore does not stop and becomes lost for at least a day. Day 3 is spent looking to lynch scum as spore location is unknown. Day three would start with potentially one turned (from the passed spore) and either 2 or 3 hosts, depending on the lynch

Both sides of the argument have good merit. Stopping the spore for a day is obviously good, but then the hosts have it back and get to choose where it goes. Letting the agent take care of Girly while someone else is lynched is likely more effective, if you think Girly did in fact turn when given the spore.

To be honest, I'm torn between the two strategies. I guess it also depends on how strong you feel about "other" in scenario two. If you don't have a good feeling on who other might be, then Girly is the obvious choice to lynch. Based on voting for now, I suppose "other" is Timbo at this point. As I pointed out at the start of the day, I didn't like Timbo's vote reason or timing on Active, so I might be leaning that way for now and just let the agent investigate Girly, and kill if turned.

This doesn't really factor in Girly's plea to the town to let us decide were the spore goes, so long as she is not lynched. Which is another important factor to consider.

I'll have to mull this over a bit more and re-read the spore reveal part to try and get a better read on the discussion.

And yet another superb post that contains nothing definitive but has the classic deflection of "I need to mull this over a bit more".

I'm not voting Girly. And I don't think I want to vote Timbo. Peanut hasn't really impressed me, but she's new (but could be playing that card and is being coached) I had it easy last game with my town mason. To have that one person you could trust 100 % was awesome. I miss Starseed.
People can twist things to how they want to see them. It's all about perception. Hopefully we can catch someone in a lie or a slip. The scum always have the upper hand.

[Oling_Roachinen]

So tangential but what's the downside to having the Genetic Anomaly reveal? Just the host not accidentally sending him the spore?

If the host accidentally sends the spore to the Genetic Anomaly, we wouldn't even know until the night when he finds out he has the spore and becomes a normal passenger. All that does is buy us 1 night of a free-pass that we only realize after the fact. The Genetic Anomaly would reveal he got the spore and sent it on it's way, and assuming no counter-claim, we could trust him for that day but only that day as now he can turn any night like the rest of us.

But if the Genetic Anomaly was to reveal now, we know the only counterclaim would be Host, or a pretty terrible claim by GirlySports, and we could confirm town him until he/she gets the spore, which could almost force the issue. No worry about accidental lynching, no worries about counter-claim as we get more Turned willing to sacrifice, and a confirmed townie until he gets the spore. I mean it's possible that it makes the Genetic Anomaly a spore-target for the Scum, but isn't that sort of what we want?

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

So tangential but what's the downside to having the Genetic Anomaly reveal?

The same as having a vanilla townie revealed, for one.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by SebC

The same as having a vanilla townie revealed, for one.

Which is bare minimal. If the scum were to receive the spore back with 11 passengers, they have a 2.7% chance of successfully turning the Government Agent, nearly no difference between having the Genetic Anomaly revealed and a 2.5% chance of turning the Government Agent.

As the game progresses to even say 6 passengers remaining and a 4.2% chance of turning the Government Agent, the chance bumps up to a modest 5% chance if they knew which one was the Genetic Anomaly, an increase of less than a percentage. Heck, a gambling man would want the spore to be passed to the Government Agent to double the chance of not having a turned created.

The bigger concern would be the actual lynch, but that's mitigated by having a confirmed townie and/or a free-pass with the spore one night, no chance of an accidental Genetic Anomaly lynch, and an increased chance of hitting the scum as well - arguably far more important.

This isn't a typical mafia game, cryptic posts don't mean #### if you get turned tonight. The Scum could have won on Night 3 with some bad luck, there's potential for #### to hit the fan real quick. Getting the Host out and limiting the potential Turned, both of which are increased with a confirmed townie or freebie night, is far more important than an extra spot for the Government Agent to hide. In my opinion.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Heck, a gambling man would want the spore to be passed to the Government Agent to double the chance of not having a turned created.

In that case, having the anamoly and the agent revealed makes less space for vanillas to hide. ()

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

So tangential but what's the downside to having the Genetic Anomaly reveal? Just the host not accidentally sending him the spore?

If the host accidentally sends the spore to the Genetic Anomaly, we wouldn't even know until the night when he finds out he has the spore and becomes a normal passenger. All that does is buy us 1 night of a free-pass that we only realize after the fact. The Genetic Anomaly would reveal he got the spore and sent it on it's way, and assuming no counter-claim, we could trust him for that day but only that day as now he can turn any night like the rest of us.

But if the Genetic Anomaly was to reveal now, we know the only counterclaim would be Host, or a pretty terrible claim by GirlySports, and we could confirm town him until he/she gets the spore, which could almost force the issue. No worry about accidental lynching, no worries about counter-claim as we get more Turned willing to sacrifice, and a confirmed townie until he gets the spore. I mean it's possible that it makes the Genetic Anomaly a spore-target for the Scum, but isn't that sort of what we want?

Today is not the day to do this.

If anything, you wait for someone you are almost certain is town to have them send the spore to the anomaly.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Today is not the day to do this.

If anything, you wait for someone you are almost certain is town to have them send the spore to the anomaly.

Well I am going to get coffee. Oling you never suggested we send the spore to the anomaly, so I'm not sure where I got that from.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Today is not the day to do this.

Maybe, but why?

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

If anything, you wait for someone you are almost certain is town to have them send the spore to the anomaly.

When will we get into that situation without the anomaly already revealed? That requires someone we believe is town to send it to someone, who they should believe is not town, and us end up believing that the current spore-carrier is town despite the 50% chance of being turned...Right?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Maybe, but why?

When will we get into that situation without the anomaly already revealed? That requires someone we believe is town to send it to someone, who they should believe is not town, and us end up believing that the current spore-carrier is town despite the 50% chance of being turned...Right?

I thought you were saying the anomaly should reveal and Girly can send the spore to them, but I don't trust Girly at all so that's why I said it wasn't the time.

I'm going to let this coffee do some work and I'll go over your post again when I am a little more coherent and can give you a better point of view.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Well I am going to get coffee. Oling you never suggested we send the spore to the anomaly, so I'm not sure where I got that from.

Let say you got the spore, whether you knew it or not. If you knew who the Genetic Anomaly is you could send it to him as a safe play. It removes our confirmed townie the subsequent nights (as now the Genetic Anomaly is at risk of being turned just like the rest of the passengers) but we know no turned was made and the next day he would also reveal that he got the spore and confirm you told the truth about sending it to him.

It still leaves you the option of sending the spore to someone you think is scum in hopes of the town lynching the scum/spore-carrier the next day.

It would just give us the option, but you need to know who the Genetic Anomaly is to have that option. The downside of removing a hiding spot for the Government Agent is minimal as it's not a guaranteed kill.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Let say you got the spore, whether you knew it or not. If you knew who the Genetic Anomaly is you could send it to him as a safe play. It removes our confirmed townie the subsequent nights (as now the Genetic Anomaly is at risk of being turned just like the rest of the passengers) but we know no turned was made and the next day he would also reveal that he got the spore and confirm you told the truth about sending it to him.

It still leaves you the option of sending the spore to someone you think is scum in hopes of the town lynching the scum/spore-carrier the next day.

It would just give us the option, but you need to know who the Genetic Anomaly is to have that option. The downside of removing a hiding spot for the Government Agent is minimal as it's not a guaranteed kill.

If a spore holder gives the spore to the revealed Genetic, Anomaly the Government Agent should still investigate the player who passed the spore to the Genetic Anomaly, to insure its not a play by a turned player to falsely earn confirmed townie status.
My question is to whom should the Genetic Anomaly give the spore to?

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

The downside of removing a hiding spot for the Government Agent is minimal as it's not a guaranteed kill.

Well after a certain point in the game the hosts could figure out who the Government Agent is through a process off elimination.
The upside is the G man's resistance to the spore requiring two coin flips both resulting in tails.

So for this to work properly we need Girly to announce truthfully to whom she is sending the spore. I'm not sure we can trust her on this.
Or
We wait until another player gets the spore and announces to whom he passed it to and then we have to place our trust in this player now holding the spore. Essentially we are back to where we are with Girly.

[GGG]

People saying stopping the spore is benefit are wrong as long as the government agent is still alive. The most it allows is extra discussion it does not improve our winning probibility. The game states end up in identical places.

I know I sound like a broken record but the town is suffering from a big logic fail.

Vote for girly if you like oling and HG believe it is more likely she is a host then if she is unturned. That's what you make the decision around. Quit with the stop the spore bull####.

[Timbo]

Triple post!

What kind of a mind thinks up these devious mafia games.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Well after a certain point in the game the hosts could figure out who the Government Agent is through a process off elimination.
The upside is the G man's resistance to the spore requiring two coin flips both resulting in tails.

So for this to work properly we need Girly to announce truthfully to whom she is sending the spore. I'm not sure we can trust her on this.
Or
We wait until another player gets the spore and announces to whom he passed it to and then we have to place our trust in this player now holding the spore. Essentially we are back to where we are with Girly.

If Girly is not killed by agent, and you believe she is not the host then we know where the spore will go. A towny will not lie. So you are back to the same question. Is girly host or unturned.

[GGG]

Using the anomaly early I think is a good idea. The spore will only be in town hands occasionally and the longer we play the better chance of being able to send the spore to the turned or host.

So I think the anomaly declaring now vs later is useful.