CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Does the mafia knowing or not knowing who a non-infected person sent the spore to matter? Would like to keep them guessing.

I feel like the advantage of the town knowing who has the spore greatly outweighs any advantage the mafia knowing. What would they gain from knowing?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Lego Man

I've been sitting on this comment for a few days.

I don't have anything actually worth posting in this game yet. It's literally, and I mean LITERALLY much ado about nothing so far. Like someone else mentioned before, it's hard to piece together useful information during the first day - even when looking though the posts after the game is over.

I've sat down and written paragraph-long responses numerous times, only to delete them because... what am I gonna do... accuse someone because they posted on on a minute ending with an odd number while everyone else that hour posted during even minutes? That's essentially the quality of information we have going for us now. Sample size is ridiculously small to draw even the simplest of conclusions.

So Hockeyguy15... what do you expect exactly? What are you trying to do exactly? Should I go back and look at the posting activity of Day -4? How am I supposed to even defend myself if I accuse someone? I voted for Girly, and everyone here knows it's for no good reason. Just a reason.

I wonder what the post count would be for some posters if you factored out them b*tching about other posters not posting. Seems like an easy way to hide in plain sight.

In my opinion posting something is better than posting nothing. This is your 4th post and if we wanted to nitpick you should technically have at least 6.

I know day 1 is always a crap shoot but all we are doing is helping the hosts by not posting at all. If we don't post, they don't have to post and they will be less likely to slip up now/down the line.

I know my theories aren't bulletproof and if I get lynched because of them then so be it, that's the game. I would rather go down trying to find hosts rather than go out without leaving a trail in my wake.

[bizaro86]

Seb brought it up earlier, but do we want to allow for a pre-lynch "deathbed" post prior to hammer/deadline? If so, we may want to start seriously talking about who want to lynch today. It would be good if we could get at least one vote from everyone, as there are still a few people left who haven't voted. There's enough information that even if you're voting on gut feel or someone else's logic you should have something to go on.

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Hockeyguy is right that we need to be more active. Inactivity benefits scum.
So I am sharing my theory that the Captain would choose to infect a known strong player. My list in order of strength(subjective) my and some of my musings
My Top 4
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hockeyguy15 -Winner of last game strong player posts a lot. Meta game master

Oling_Roachinen Winner of last game posts a lot as well as strong on the attack It would be wise to have him on your side rather than an adversary.

dissentowner Also a proven strong player and usually is one of the last ones standing

GGG Often goes on the attack and has the ability to get a following. A pitbull

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The remaining

East Coast Flame Past mafia scum experience

Lego Man Has experience in a few mafia games and yet seems strangely posting low

activeStick Wondering about this player I need a bigger body of work to formulate a more informed opinion

squiggs96 Did not like getting lynched last game and has something to prove.

GirlySports Past mafia scum experience good counterpuncher I feel she often tries to change the thread direction

bizaro86 Im having a tough time reading him

mrkajz44 I am starting to get more and more suspicious of him (just a gut feeling) I suspect him as Captain but I do not have anything but a feeling to back up my claim

Timbo often makes posts that get himself killed

devo22 I don't really have much to go on

Puxlut plays the confused card

SebC I dunno

Party Elephant Newb Possibly drew the scum card

Peanut Newb really not contributing much hiding or just overwhelmed?

So if I were the Captain this would be the order of players I would try to infect first.
I am making a big assumption that the Captain did not go with the ennie meanie minnie mow method.
For now it is all I have to work with and it is quite possible that one of those in my top 4 were given the spore but not infected. I looked for sublet changes in playing style and I felt and I still feel dissentowner is playing differently.

I have been trying to put myself in the shoes of the captain....but it kind of depends on the captain doesn't it? Say the captain was a newb with no context on the previous 3 games, how would they know to target stronger or weaker players?

Honestly, if it were me I would do it randomly.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Seb brought it up earlier, but do we want to allow for a pre-lynch "deathbed" post prior to hammer/deadline? If so, we may want to start seriously talking about who want to lynch today. It would be good if we could get at least one vote from everyone, as there are still a few people left who haven't voted. There's enough information that even if you're voting on gut feel or someone else's logic you should have something to go on.

Yeah I'm strongly in favour of deathbed posts. I doubt it'll help us a lot on day 1, but generally there's no disadvantage to deathbed posts IMO. Who ignores that and hammers beforehand immediately makes it to the top of my suspicion list.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

I have been trying to put myself in the shoes of the captain....but it kind of depends on the captain doesn't it? Say the captain was a newb with no context on the previous 3 games, how would they know to target stronger or weaker players?

Honestly, if it were me I would do it randomly.

Hence my statement about big assumption. The stars would have to align in a certain way for my theory to work.

But would I do it randomly if I had the choice nope no way.
Would a newb do it randomly? Ya it is quite possible.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Hockeyguy is right that we need to be more active. Inactivity benefits scum.
So I am sharing my theory that the Captain would choose to infect a known strong player. My list in order of strength(subjective) my and some of my musings
My Top 4
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hockeyguy15 -Winner of last game strong player posts a lot. Meta game master

Oling_Roachinen Winner of last game posts a lot as well as strong on the attack It would be wise to have him on your side rather than an adversary.

dissentowner Also a proven strong player and usually is one of the last ones standing

GGG Often goes on the attack and has the ability to get a following. A pitbull

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The remaining

East Coast Flame Past mafia scum experience

Lego Man Has experience in a few mafia games and yet seems strangely posting low

activeStick Wondering about this player I need a bigger body of work to formulate a more informed opinion

squiggs96 Did not like getting lynched last game and has something to prove.

GirlySports Past mafia scum experience good counterpuncher I feel she often tries to change the thread direction

bizaro86 Im having a tough time reading him

mrkajz44 I am starting to get more and more suspicious of him (just a gut feeling) I suspect him as Captain but I do not have anything but a feeling to back up my claim

Timbo often makes posts that get himself killed

devo22 I don't really have much to go on

Puxlut plays the confused card

SebC I dunno

Party Elephant Newb Possibly drew the scum card

Peanut Newb really not contributing much hiding or just overwhelmed?

So if I were the Captain this would be the order of players I would try to infect first.
I am making a big assumption that the Captain did not go with the ennie meanie minnie mow method.
For now it is all I have to work with and it is quite possible that one of those in my top 4 were given the spore but not infected. I looked for sublet changes in playing style and I felt and I still feel dissentowner is playing differently.

My top 3 would have been Oling, Bizaro, and GGG.

I would want a strong player infected since they have to play by themselves for the first little bit.

[bizaro86]

So I voted for ActiveStick originally to hopefully prod him into posting more and voting, so we'd have a record of his actions to refer back to later.

Since then, he's made the following posts:

QUOTE=activeStick;5310591]Are we forcing people to vote here? I'm not convinced of anyone yet to be honest. Don't want to lynch anyone either just to vote someone out.[/QUOTE]

Leads with a question, then suggests inactivity, which is the number one thing that benefits the scum. If we don't vote someone out, we just get 0.5 days closer to losing every time, and lose our biggest way of gaining knowledge.

Originally Posted by activeStick

We just have to careful about looking for things that aren't there.

Originally Posted by activeStick

If we don't get the 6 votes, does nobody get killed?

Another question about how the game works, which has often been a scum tactic to derail analysis/conversation. Girlysports did this well last game.

Originally Posted by activeStick

Sorry, meant to add would that be advantageous or not? I guess it depends. We wouldn't have anymore information after the night unless things happen during the evening I guess.

Leads with a question again. This concludes three short posts with very little content, basically the same question. Seems designed to get post count up without providing any actual analysis or information that could be used against him later in the game.

Originally Posted by activeStick

Aren't the numbers 3/17 for scum, 14/17 we lynch our own assuming our own didn't turn?

If we don't lynch our own guy and the infected doesn't turn, we stay with 14 guys. If we lynch our own guy and the infected turns, we have 12 guys.

I suppose we need to decide, as a group if we go for a pile on lynch or not.

Leads with a question again, comments that we need to decide as a group if we should do a lynch or not.

____________________________________

So my comments are that of the 5 posts since I voted for him, 4 start with questions about the game, none have any scum hunting in them, and the general idea seems to be to not lynch, which is a terrible town strategy. Combining that with laying low, innocuous posting to pad post count, and not voting suggests to me that activestick could be scum trying to lay low and not make waves.

I've already voted for him so can't vote again - but have two suggestions.

1) Activestick - vote for someone, and post who you think is scum and why.

2) Passengers - Read through his posts and see what you think. We need to lynch someone and I think he's a strong candidate.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by devo22

Yeah I'm strongly in favour of deathbed posts. I doubt it'll help us a lot on day 1, but generally there's no disadvantage to deathbed posts IMO. Who ignores that and hammers beforehand immediately makes it to the top of my suspicion list.

To allow for a deathbed post, we need to have someone in a position to deadline lynch awhile before tonights deadline to give them a chance to post. If we come down to the deadline the person getting lynched may not have a chance to see what happens and we miss any last insight they may have.

[Timbo]

Good post Bizaro86 I think it benefits all passengers to lobby for who you voted against to further gain momentum.

It wouldn't have hurt us if we had already run a few suspects up the flagpole.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Just as a response to GGGs comments towards me:

1) I did not have any extra information on the spore thing - I was just speculating and ended up being correct. The fact that Maz posted a clarifying explanation shows that the information was ambiguous and needed to be cleared up

2) Just providing my thoughts on Diss getting frustrated with two votes early. Based on his posts I read him as town and he just had a moment of frustration, so I posted my opinion on him.

3) As for the vote on Party - I did mention in earlier posts that I would likely wait until Monday to vote as the weekend is typically slow and I wanted as much talk as possible before voting. You did mention the Party theory where he is newby scum first, and when I re-read Party's posts I tended to agree. I expanded that thought a little more with his response times and voted after that.

Timbo, i am with you on the mrkajz suspicion. The responses feel like Olings responses from the last game emotionless and logical. Everything posted above here is a perfectly rational explanation for my concerns and yet i am unconvinced that he is town.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Good post Bizaro86 I think it benefits all passengers to lobby for who you voted against to further gain momentum.

It wouldn't have hurt us if we had already run a few suspects up the flagpole.

Thanks! We need to get some analysis and discussion going here, and it would be unfair for me to complain about it without backing up my vote with analysis.

I'd seriously encourage everyone who has voted to make a case for why that person is scum. Even if you're wrong, it helps get ideas out into the open. If you haven't voted - do so, we need everyone to have their ideas on record to check for consistency later.

So the other thing I would say: Activestick, SebC, and Puxlut can you either vote or explain why you're not voting?

[Hockeyguy15]

Unvote

Vote: activeStick

Let's see what turning up the heat does. He posts lots of questions but not much else.

[devo22]

I voted for Girly simply because I found it weird that she was very active early on and then completely disappeared for two days (while still posting in other areas). She has since returned, so

unvote

Will re-read some posts at home before voting again, but the case you've made against activeStick seems plausible.

[Timbo]

Unvote
Vote:activestick

Agreed turn up the heat.

[bizaro86]

Updated vote count, we're now <12 hours to deadline.

With 17 alive, it takes 9 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 6 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn’t Voted (2): activeStick, SebC, Puxlut

Voted:
Party Elephant (2): GirlySports, mrkajz44
activeStick (2): squiggs96, bizaro86
GirlySports (3): Lego Man, devo22, partyelephant
dissentowner (1): Timbo
squiggs96 (1): Hockeyguy15
SebC (1): East Coast Flame
East Coast Flame (1): Peanut
Timbo (1): Oling_Roachinen
mrkajz44 (1): GGG
hockeyguy15: (1) Dissentowner

The deadline is Tuesday, May 26th at 10:00 PM.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

I feel like the advantage of the town knowing who has the spore greatly outweighs any advantage the mafia knowing. What would they gain from knowing?

If we all know then there will be a push for 'target' to get lynched and the hosts would push for that lynch to get the spore back. Maybe in the long run that gives us information?

If nobody knows than nobody knows.

[bizaro86]

Some changes while I was posting this. Updated vote count, we're now <12 hours to deadline.

With 17 alive, it takes 9 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 6 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn’t Voted (4): activeStick, SebC, Puxlut, devo22

Voted:
Party Elephant (2): GirlySports, mrkajz44
activeStick (4): squiggs96, bizaro86, timbo, hockeyguy15
GirlySports (2): Lego Man, partyelephant
SebC (1): East Coast Flame
East Coast Flame (1): Peanut
Timbo (1): Oling_Roachinen
mrkajz44 (1): GGG
hockeyguy15: (1) Dissentowner

The deadline is Tuesday, May 26th at 10:00 PM.[/QUOTE]

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

I think post count is like corsi - a useful tool but doesn't tell the whole story. Obviously this game isn't as simple as laying low = scum, posting lots = town.

I still think GGG is scum. I reckon he's the 2014-15 Calgary Flames defying corsi. But my scum buddies have advised me to change to a more strategic and less hotheaded vote so

unvote
GGG

and

vote
GirlySports
It's a bit of a shame that by the time I'm home from work you guys are all asleep. I would like to be more involved in the back and forth posting during the day but the time difference makes that tricky. But I've got the day off tomorrow so lots more time to play mafia!

If you think GGG is scum, keep the vote there. Your scum buddies may have advised you to switch your vote, but you still voted for someone who voted for you. That's your second revenge vote. If this vote is strategic, what are your reasons for it?

On a side note, you don't need to say who you are unvoting for. You just bold unvote and are done.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

My top 3 would have been Oling, Bizaro, and GGG.

I would want a strong player infected since they have to play by themselves for the first little bit.

I would have wanted to go with Oling or GGG first, but I don't think I would have gone through with it. I think it would have been way too predictable by me and would have shed some heat on me early. If I was the captain I'd rather they were turned later than earlier, to establish their posting pattern. If I was the captain I'd have likely started with a first timer. I'm guessing they wouldn't handle it as well as an experienced player would if they found out they were infected.